why aren't all 2,409 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 14 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Lonsdale: Epirus shot down hardened drones 9.5x further than legacy primes
“We ended up shooting down the hardened drones nine and a half times further away than the other guys.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lonsdale: Palantir's software helped eliminate thousands of terrorists
“You know, we ended up limiting thousands of terrorists, so we were happy with the results.”
Assertion Partly supported
Shaan Puri: Cofertility charges a $13,700 matchmaking fee for donated eggs
“You can get free egg freezing if you bundle in and agree to donate half the eggs up front. And on the other side, they go and charge people who want eggs, and they charge them 13,000 dollars at 13,700 dollars to as their matchmaking fee to get you your eggs.”
Assertion Supported
James Patterson has solely written only 20% of his credited books.
“He actually has only written about 20%, like solely written 20% of the books that his name is, is credited with as writing.”
Assertion Supported
UFC fighters receive only 15% to 17% of overall revenue
“All the fighters are independent contractors. They don't even pay them salaries. There's no guaranteed salaries. Independent contractors who make about 15 to 17% of the overall revenue goes to the fighters. Way less than every other sport. No teams. No, no, no…”
Assertion Supported
Bernd Bergmair was the secret financial backer behind MindGeek's $77M buyout
“They said that actually the employees bought it out for seventy seven million, like the two executives bought it out. But that didn't smell quite right. Where did these, where do these employees get seventy seven million dollars to buy this, right? Like how mu…”
Assertion Partly supported
Bernd Bergmair extracted $2 million per month from MindGeek via debt payments
“One of the reasons why is this guy basically lends money to the company and takes out two million a month in just debt payments himself. Plus they shift revenue around all these subsidiaries. So there's all these shell companies. So you don't actually, they've…”
Assertion Supported
Average private equity returns beat every global stock market over 35 years
“In the last 35 years, every stock market in the world has produced a smaller return than private equity, average private equity at that same time.”
Assertion Partly supported
Private equity produces more billionaires than the tech or real estate industries
“What's the largest number of billionaires? And most people think it's tech and it's not. And then they think it's real estate and it's not, it's financial services, but it's not hedge funds and it's not VC funds, some VC funds, but not most, very small. It's p…”
Assertion Supported
Nagpal: How Peter Thiel shielded $27M in PayPal gains using a Roth IRA
“What he did is he bought his founder shares at PayPal with his Roth IRA. So he spent like 2000 dollars to buy PayPal shares that became worth twenty seven million dollars when PayPal sold. And then he had twenty seven million dollars to just make all kinds of …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
MrBeast fired six CEOs, including a Disney executive who didn't understand YouTube
“I've hired and fired like six CEOs. I thought we hired the Disney guy. Surely he'll know things. No, he doesn't know shit about YouTube. That's not going to work.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Puri: Congo Brands owns 60% of Prime; Logan Paul and KSI hold 30-40%
“In reality, these guys own 60% of that company, right?
Logan and KSI own, you know, the sort of like 30 to 40% of that company.”
Assertion Supported
Puri: QSBS Trusts Allow Stacking Multiple $10M Tax-Free Capital Gains
“And you're getting QSPS, you know, the ten million dollars tax free. For you times each of your kids, I can get to fifty million tax-free if I got, you know, three or four kids or whatever.”
Assertion Supported
Puri: Bret Taylor forced Elon Musk to complete Twitter acquisition
“He was the board member that basically forced Elon to stick to his offer. He stood up to Elon and basically forced Elon to buy and got an amazing deal for the Twitter shareholders.”
Assertion Contradicted
Puri: Diet Coke removed aspartame due to Craig Clemens's viral video
“Coke changed the formula for Diet Coke. They took aspartame out on the, because this video was causing so much like public, you know, like awareness and an uproar over these like fake sugars that people were putting in things. He's like, and then over six mont…”
Assertion Supported
Puri: Founders stack $10M QSBS tax exemptions using trusts for children
“So for example, what some people do, they have QSPS for themselves, but it's per tax return. So you could do it for yourself. You can create trusts for your kids and give each of them equity. And then each trust gets a ten million dollar exclusion in addition …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Campbell: Happiness continues rising up to $50M net worth
“Well, I took it all the way to, I think it's like three to four million a year and the happiness just continues to increase. It's not at the same rate, but like more income and more net worth does bring more happiness. Like I'm not sure where it's going to lik…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sanchez: Contrarian's operating businesses generate more revenue than its course community
“We'd make more money categorically from the businesses we own than from the community that we own, for instance. So, like, numerically, categorically, that's just the fact.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Codie Sanchez has never raised operating business capital from her audience
“I've never, ever raised money for any of the businesses that I invest in from my audience. Ever. Not once. Not once have I asked for a dollar for that.”
Assertion Contradicted
Yanowitz: CoinDesk event attendance fell 80% in 2019, nearly destroying the company
“CoinDesk almost died in 2019 because of that reason. They had like, I don't know, 10,000 plus people in 2018. And then in 2019, they fell to like 2000 people, right? They fell 80% and that almost wiped out their whole business.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Adcock: General Catalyst's Joel Cutler called my Archer pitch disrespectful
“At one point I got introduced to the guy that runs like General Catalyst, Joel. And he called my pitch disrespectful.”
Assertion Supported
Puri: Pelosi's stock portfolio is up 30% YTD, outperforming Warren Buffett
“And like, of course, somehow Nancy Pelosi's like, happens to be, you know, she, you know, she's you know, happens to be up 30% year to date. Like she's outperforming Warren Buffett. She's outperforming your favorite hedge fund guy.”
Assertion Partly supported
Coogan: VC-backed companies make up 99% of public market cap
“Basically only about one percent of companies that get started raise venture capital, but about 99% of the market cap in the public markets, they took venture.”
Assertion Contradicted
Manson: No therapy modality has a success rate over 50%
“You start looking at the research, and it's startling because there's nothing that has more than a 50% hit rate. Nothing like none. There's no form of therapy that is successful, like produces positive outcomes more than 50% of the time, which is crazy.”
Assertion Partly supported
Connor Price: TikTok suppresses comments mentioning Spotify or link in bio
“TikTok at this point, too, even, if you try to write the word link in bio or even Spotify, they'll hide the comment. And we've tested this. I've written that, I've posted that comment under my own video, logged into a different account to go there, and the com…”
Assertion Partly supported
Joe Rogan Refused To Host Donald Trump On His Podcast
“Joe turned down having Trump on his podcast. He turned down having other presidential candidates on his podcast that he thought would Just kind of be promotional or not a good conversation or bring unwanted attention to the pod.”
Assertion Supported
Parr: Vice inflated ad reach by aggregating third-party clickbait sites
“What they did was they did, ah, they partnered with omgfacts.com, distractified.com, and all these other clickbait websites, and they would roll that up, and so they would call them part of the vice network, and so they would tell people, ah, you know, like In…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Shkreli: Vivek Ramaswamy was his biggest investor and supersized his business model
“And my friend and at the time it was actually my biggest investor, Vivek Ramaswamy, he's now running for president. He basically took our business model and supersized it.”
Assertion Supported
Shkreli: Acquitted of Retrophin-Related Federal Criminal Charges
“And it's like, you know, I was actually acquitted of those charges, and I'm so proud of that.”
Assertion Contradicted
Shkreli: First individual personally sued for monopoly by the FTC
“The Federal Trade Commission actually personally sued me for monopoly. I'm the first person in American history, the Sherman Act, which is 125 years old, the first person to personally be sued by the Federal Trade Commission, which is very odd. Because John D.…”
Assertion Partly supported
Shkreli: 90% of healthcare costs stem from physicians and 10% from pharma
“90% of healthcare costs come from physicians. 10% come from pharma.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Parr: Native Deodorant Copied Its Brand Identity From an SF Cafe
“He, 100%, Stole the entire branding, the name, everything from this company. I don't know if stealing is the right word, but kinda.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ali: TinyCo's a16z Series A was almost torpedoed by an ex-cofounder
“I started that company, then I started TinyCo and we were raising our series A from Andreessen Horowitz and he found out and He sent them an email saying, you shouldn't let this guy you shouldn't invest in this guy call me. And so they called him and, you know…”
Assertion Partly supported
Ali: Travis Kalanick drove to a VC firm to block Lyft investment
“Like Travis, the Uber CEO, when he heard that some company, some VC fund was investing in Lyft, he stopped what he was doing. He drove down to that VC firm and said, here are all the reasons you shouldn't invest in Lyft.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Parr: Andrew Tate's Discord community brings in over $100M in revenue
“It's, like, tens of thousands of members. Yeah. No, no, no, no, no, no. Like, a million members. Oh, wow. Like, we're talking nine figures in revenue, and CoffeeZilla, like, did it. He's like, look, here's all the members. If you multiply that by 50, and then …”
Assertion Contradicted
Wilkinson: Ackman exited his short position before his viral CNBC interview
“If you actually look at the timeline, he'd already sold out of that position when he went on CNBC.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Johnson: My 17-year-old son follows my exact identical biological health protocol
“My 17 year old is, he does the identical things I do.”
Assertion Supported
Johnson: I age 277 days per year, giving me three months free
“I'm currently aging at .76. So I, for every 365 days a year, I age 277. So I basically get like October, November, December for free.”
Assertion Supported
Puri says Chamath hyped Metromile before it sold for a massive loss
“Chamath took Friedberg's company Metromile public through a SPAC and said, Buffett had Geico, I had Metromile, a better business in all these ways. And like, I don't know, less than a year later, Metromile sells for a third of what it went public for you know,…”
Assertion Partly supported
Puri: Musk Ordered Twitter Engineers to Print Out Months of Code
“He told every engineer to print out all the code that they've committed and they've written in the last three or six months and have it ready for review.”
Assertion Supported
Parr: Hopin founder took $100 million in secondary share sales
“And by the way, the founder took a hundred million dollars in secondary.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wilson: MrBeast admitted wagering tens of thousands on crypto gambling
“I was talking with him and he was like, yeah, I can't really gamble because I'm kind of a gambling addict. And he talked about like I don't want to say the name of the game, highly addicting crypto gambling site that he would be wagering like tens of thousands…”
Assertion Supported
Sean Puri: FTX operates its massive crypto exchange with only 30 engineers
“They built like for the first year or something, they had two engineers. And even now to this day, they have like, I think, 25 to 30 software engineers.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Puri: A founder raised $50M to attempt a hostile takeover of Ripple
“So he went to some very, very wealthy people and he got about fifty million dollars lined up to do this hostile takeover. And he was like, he needed it to be like two hundred million.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Puri: Ripple built a cash buffer to defend against a leaked hostile attack
“Axios writes the story ahead of time. He says, hey, there's somebody planning a hostile takeover XRP, and here's how it's going to work. And XRP, the Ripple team obviously sees this and they're like, okay, just in case they, so they sold some amount of their R…”
Assertion Supported
Puri: Life satisfaction rises with income beyond $75,000 without plateauing
“If you actually look at the chart shows that if you look at it on a non log scale, which he puts the graph here, it's basically like the more money you have, the more your satisfaction goes up and there's no flattening out. It doesn't go up at the same rate. S…”
Assertion Partly supported
Gary Vaynerchuk achieved publishing history's largest pre-order with one million books
“And so far as of today, it is the largest pre-order ever. In, in publishing history. He has I think as of yesterday, he has sold one million copies of his book before it's even gone live.”
Assertion Supported
Huberman: Weight loss requires caloric deficit regardless of specific dietary regimen
“There's a paper from Chris Garner lab at Stanford showing that as long as people ingest fewer calories than they burn, you're going to lose weight, regardless of whether or not those calories are in a low carb regimen or vegan regimen or pure meat regimen, et …”