The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 595 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Puri: Creator platforms like Patreon and Substack make for crappy businesses
“I don't like Patreon. I don't like Substack for the same reason. I think they are amazing products. They are good for the world, but they make for crappy businesses.”
Musk: Aging is a solvable problem governed by a synchronizing biological clock
“I do think it is a very solvable problem. When we figure out what causes aging, I think we'll find it's incredibly obvious. It's not a subtle thing. The reason I say it's not a subtle thing is because all the cells in your body pretty much age at the same rate…”
AI hyperscalers are building a commodity tooling layer, not capturing ultimate value
“I think they're creating the tooling layer. That then a lot of us are now using to create real businesses on top of. So I kind of go back to the internet breakthrough and internet revolution and think about, okay, like the browsers, everybody was super excited…”
DHH: Young people are smarter when it comes to liquid intelligence
“Well, it's not wrong. In a certain category of intelligence, this form of liquid intelligence, smart fast signups, firing stuff. Young people are smarter. Like, just like they run faster, right?”
DHH: Tech companies now reserve upside for VCs unlike Shopify's IPO
“Shopify didn't do as so many other companies do now, which is essentially reserve all the upside to insiders and their VCs, and then go public when it's already kind of plateaued, right? Like, from where they were to where they are now, an amazing ride for the…”
DHH agrees with the Silicon Valley consensus that AGI is imminent
“Like the herd, certainly out of Silicon Valley is like AGI is imminent. And even between now and AGI, we're going to go through such an intelligence explosion that hold on to socks, right? Yeah, I'm actually now in the consensus on that, which I'm always a lit…”
Sam Parr: The United States should institute mandatory military service
“I actually do think that America should have a mandatory I think Scott Galloway said this. I've agreed with this for a long time. We should have mandatory service for American military. I think that would be great.”
Galloway says billionaires buying art and wine remain uncultured douchebags
“Art and wine. Art is I'm trying to buy culture. I've been a boring douchebag my whole life. So all of a sudden I'm going to start overspending on art and it makes me interesting. No, it doesn't. You're still the same douchebag.”
Galloway: American equities are too expensive while Europe is on sale
“I think America's too expensive right now. I think Europe's on sale.”
AlphaGo's Move 37 was AI's first genuine creative breakthrough
“And in move 37, the computer does something, and right away the announcers are like,
oh my.
Oh, what is that?
And Lisa Dole, you can literally, they show him, like, sweating and thinking, and he's like, what the hell just happened?
They go, and they go, I thin…”
Horowitz: Jeff Bezos is a top two or three CEO of the last 40 years
“And by the way, like whatever, like, you know, people always make you into cartoon when you get to that level, he is, you know, for sure, like a top two or three best CEO in the last 40 years.”
50-year mortgages are a terrible idea for building home equity
“Trump wants to address the affordability crisis, which is a real problem. And said, what we should do is extend mortgages to 50 years. So you have 50 years to pay it off instead of 30 years. I think it's a terrible idea because basically what happens is you gi…”
Negreanu: Phil Ivey is the best all-around poker player in the world
“He's the best player poker player in the world as far as I'm concerned when you count all the games, and that's Phil Ivey.”
Liu: Everyone should run their lab diagnostics through AI like ChatGPT
“I mean, I think, like, today, it's already better to, I mean, everybody should be taking all of their, you know, personal, like health diagnostics, you get a blood test or whatever, and, like, running that through ChatGPT, like, upload it, Asko three, like, He…”
Ury: Men's peer groups provide more personal growth than traditional therapy
“I think it's better than therapy, because most therapists are female, so having your wife or having your female therapist tell you what to do, I think that's fine, but having a council of peers who can really relate to you and create a safe space for you to be…”
Sam Parr admits The Hustle could not grow organically if launched today
“I don't think it would succeed. I think that it would, I would not succeed. I got to like 300,000 subscribers organically in like two years. Like it was so easy looking back on it. That would never happen again. It's, there's too much noise.”
Parr: Consumer recycling is '100% bullshit' and should be abandoned
“Recycling is 100% bullshit. It should be reduce, reuse, get rid of the recycle.”
Parr: Moving to another city solely for tax savings is foolish
“Moving for taxes, when someone tells me they do that, I think they're stupid. I think that's a really, that's a foolish thing to do. Do you agree or disagree? There's a lot of people that do that. I think it's foolish. Sorry, they're not stupid. I think that d…”
Bezos Threw Away His Balanced Life During a Midlife Crisis
“I think he had it all, but whatever reason he had like this Midlife crisis that made him throw it all away.”
Parr: Elon Musk 100% outshined Donald Trump in the Oval Office
“Elon Musk, 100% outshined Donald there. That was so emasculating to have Donald just sitting there and Elon standing up, sort of behind him, like he was gonna come and put his arm, like his hands on his shoulders.”
Parr: Musk lacks grace and maturity when slashing federal jobs
“And for Elon, I'm like, do what you gotta do, but can you not be so smug about it and like have some like fucking grace when you're like doing some of these things, even if those things are good, and I agree with them, I just wish that like the maturity level …”
Puri: Enterprise and habit-driven software will resist AI commoditization
“So you have software where there's already habits. Those will be safe software where the value is the people or the data. Those will be safe. Software where the value is in the enterprise relationship, the service that's on top of it, or the like fine tuning a…”
Rydhan: Google's failure to lead in LLMs is a lifetime-scale fumble
“I think the biggest fumble
You know, in our lifetime.
Decade fumble.
Yeah.
They built the technology for Transformers.
Right.
The thing that OpenAI and others have used to develop this large language model, they are the ones that were the first entry and like …”
Puri: OpenAI is Google's first credible competitor in 20 years
“It's the first credible Google competitor in about 20 years. It is something that actually could displace, replace search”
Shaan Puri is more bullish on Replit than any other tech company
“I think I am more bullish on replet than any tech company right now.”
Mack: America is the best country because it cooperates faster than any other
“That's why America's the best, because you can cooperate faster than any country, in my opinion.”
Pujji: Bootstrapped founders should run PE roll-ups instead of raising VC
“If I'm a profitable bootstrap founder, including myself, like even for growth assistant and other things, I'm like, this seems like such an obvious path to create a tremendous amount of value. That's like better than the venture path for so many different reas…”
Means: The US Healthcare System Is a Rigged Kleptocracy
“In the US, we have much worse than socialism. We have a kleptocracy where the system's just totally been rigged, and every single impulse is for people to get sick, be fed into the system, and then stay sick to be treated. That's every single impulse in the sy…”
Being a professional blackjack player is the biggest loser job
“The biggest loser in the world is a professional blackjack player. I'm just gonna say that again. The biggest loser in the world is a professional blackjack player because you're professional at something that is stacked against you is a, by definition, losing…”
Puri: The New York Times is functionally a games company
“The New York Times has more in common with Zynga than it does the truth. The New York Times is a games company”
Gary Vee: Attention is the most mispriced asset right now
“And I would argue that attention is the most mispriced asset right now that most impacts everyone.”
Gary Vee: Super Bowl ads are the most underpriced media globally
“I think Super Bowl is the most underpriced media in the world. It's very hard to get a hundred thirty million people to watch 30 seconds of a video and actually want to and pay attention to it, right? So that seven, eight million dollar VIG I think is great.”
Gary Vee: Mark Zuckerberg is uncomfortably underrated
“Dude, I think he's uncomfortably underrated.”
Gary Vee estimates Prime would sell for $2B to $7B
“Prime is definitely, like, a two, depending on the time they decide to trade it, it's two, three, four, five, six, seven billion.”
Giffon: Regulatory Compliance Software Is Resilient Against AI Disruption
“And they're also, like, fairly AI resilient, I think, because it's really, again, it's like medical stuff, it's really high downside, so you don't wanna, like, trust it with AI, and then it turns out you weren't in compliance, and you're gonna get a huge fine,…”
Pompliano: Andrew Tate's viral content tactics became standard marketing playbooks
“If you look at his tactics, they have pretty much become standard in a lot of people's like marketing today. And so people kind of like saw this guy be successful on the internet, get a message out. And now you have a bunch of companies and individuals that ar…”
Cohen: Achieving a Truly Rich US Lifestyle Requires Roughly $20M
“I think nowadays it's much more clear that you need something like twenty million. This is all in the US, by the way, to have what would be considered to be like a rich lifestyle in America.”
Morning Brew CEO: No More Alpha Left in the Newsletter Game
“I think there's no more alpha in the newsletter game. Everyone talks about everything.”
Nagpal: Actively managed funds promising outsized returns are a scam
“What I think is a little bit of a scam is a lot of the financial services industry that tries to promise you outsized returns.”
Shaan Puri: Copyright trolls could extract $50K nuisance settlements from AI startups
“I am stunned that somebody is not just suing every AI company and being like, cool, I'll settle for 20 K, go ahead or 50 K settlement. But otherwise you're just going to be wrapped up in this. It's going to hurt your future fundraising. It's going to be an iss…”
Wilkinson: Andrew Huberman's Media Business Is Completely Undisruptible
“His business, I'm like, that is a completely undisruptible business unless he gets hit by a bus or something.”
Puri: Plunge should currently be worth $250M to $300M
“This company should be worth, you know, 253 hundred million dollars right now.”
Campbell: 10x better products are nearly impossible without scientific or regulatory moats
“Innovation, like a 10 X better product is almost impossible in this particular environment. Now, like 1015 years ago, you could build an innovative 10 X better product. Because you were the one that had the special relationship with the supplier in Yemen for t…”
Moore: Elite graduates going into banking choose corporate enslavement over freedom
“Again, given the pedigree of these people, you would think you would shoot for the moon year. You would want to have this freedom in your life, but you're literally choosing a form of enslavement, in my opinion.”
Moore: Most bankers do not understand deal financing structures
“Most bankers have no idea what they're doing or what they're talking about. Truly, I had to learn this the hard way. They think they can finance a deal. They have no idea how to finance the deal. They have no idea what these structures, what the details are of…”
Galloway: US Healthcare Is the Most Disruptable Business in the World
“The most disruptable business in the world is US healthcare, three and a half to four trillion dollars.”
Galloway: We hit 'peak AI' for investors around September 2023
“I think AI, we've kind of hit peak AI. I love it. I use it a lot, but it's a little bit overhyped right now. We're definitely kind of, I would say, I think about a month ago we hit peak AI in terms of, from an investor standpoint, I would not want to be buying…”
Paying Twitch streamers to gamble live drove Stake's multi-billion-dollar scale
“I think that the marketing lesson about how these guys market themselves is like one of the best, like, marketing hacks that created a multi-billion dollar outcome was this one realization that, hey, let's pay these influencers and celebrities to specifically …”