The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 6,334 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 83 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Noah Glass Conceived Twitter Before Jack Dorsey Took the Credit
“That's what it becomes, and if you, if Jack Dorsey had told the real story about Twitter, that his best friend Noah Glass really was the one that came up with most of it, and he stole it, you know, from him, and like, and that, that place was a shit show, and …”
Dorsey Gave Ev Williams an Ultimatum to Fire Noah Glass
“Jack, Who is best friends with Noah goes into Ev's office one day and he says, either you get rid of Noah or I quit.”
Dorsey Fabricated Twitter's Firetruck Dispatch Origin Story After the Fact
“And as far as Ev knew, Jack had come up with the idea himself, you know, when he was a little kid listening to fire trucks. That was a story that was added later.”
Dorsey Reaped $12B While Twitter Co-Founder Noah Glass Got Nothing
“Jack is worth twelve billion dollars, give or take. Noah Glass is worth about a zero dollars, ok? He never got anything. Ev gave him something, and he had to live off that and whatnot. If you're worth twelve billion dollars, give the guy ten million.”
Puri: DOGE is our only shot to escape US debt death spiral
“Is this one of our only shots to get out of the death spiral of excess spending? I believe so, and I cannot believe it happened.”
Wilkinson: Rolling Out Existing AI and Self-Driving Would Eliminate 20% of Jobs
“So if we just paused AI, we shut down all the AI labs and all we focused on was just rollout of what already exists. I think probably Between self-driving cars and AI agents, 20% of all current jobs are gone.”
Wilkinson: Software will commoditize as AI eliminates coding barriers
“And so my belief is basically that as more and more people don't need to learn how to code and can build software, software will become more and more commoditized. There'll be way more competition and it'll be a way harder world for software businesses.”
Puri: The best early-stage tech investors judge founders in under ten minutes
“The two best early pickers of startups ever in the history of Silicon Valley, both make their decisions based off of just, do they feel like these people are fierce founders and they can figure that out in less than 10 minutes. And then here you have people th…”
Puri: Harvard had 1 African-American studies graduate for 57 faculty
“Like, I think there was only what was it? Like, there was one degree recipient in twenty-twenty-three in African-American studies. And 57 faculty.”
Petersen: VC incentives create herd mentality and cross-firm collusion
“So therefore, the way to avoid getting fired in VC, again, this is not Founders Fund. This is what I like about them, that they're very different. But is it, the way to avoid getting fired is to be, well, to double check everything you do with other VCs. To ma…”
Petersen: Tech media unfairly targets startup founders instead of incumbent mega-corporations
“All reporters play a very important function of like holding the powerful accountable, but like founders, you're not that power, but we're kind of suffering through like, you know, we're up against some very powerful forces in the world. Like we feel like we'r…”
Puri: Cyberstarts promises startups $2M revenue through loyal CISO network
“He promises teams of fresh graduates, graduates from tech units, not only investment support in the startup, but initial revenues of two million a year. This is usually their first year of revenue, which is intended to boost them above their competitors and he…”
Parr: Traba explicitly promotes a 996 work culture
“And they basically, I think they explicitly said this on their website. We have a nine, nine, six culture, which means working nine AM to nine PM, six days a week.”
Smith: An Energy Enhancement System Cured His Chronic Daily Headaches
“The, I actually think that this EES thing is the only thing that worked. I just went in there and I sat in a lawn chair for an hour, maybe two hours, and then just came out and in my stomach, like I can feel my stomach, like reorganizing, et cetera, churning. …”
Guo: Ignore AI doom scenarios; prioritize near-term fraud and disinformation
“There's no linear path from here to there. And so when people ask me about like the doom scenario, like I am much more concerned about abuses we actually do understand. So for example, like what if people don't understand what information is true or not, or li…”
Shaan Puri: Robinhood's gamified design exploits unsophisticated retail traders
“Robinhood is designed the same way. Robinhood is literally designed like a mobile game to get you addicted to trade, to get you to try to trade as much as you can. They make money. Every time you make a trade, they don't make money by you buying a low cost ind…”
Wilkinson: Angel Investing Is Roulette, Not Poker
“I think of it as roulette. And I think like this period that we're talking about was about me learning how to play poker, right? Poker has way better odds than roulette. If you're good at poker, you can actually win. You've got, you know, a 60% odds. When you …”
Means: Segmenting Chronic Lifestyle Conditions Is Medicine's Biggest Post-WWII Mistake
“The biggest mistake we've made since World War II is that we've segmented these chronic lifestyle conditions when they're really the same thing.”
Means: Big Tobacco drove the largest food M&As in US history
“In 1990, two of the three largest M&A deals in American history were cigarette companies buying food companies. So every single processed food companies we can actually point to is either still owned by a cigarette company. We don't even realize this craft is …”
Means: Ozempic is essentially 'liquified anorexia' and a crash diet
“Essentially it is liquefied anorexia. I mean, truly, truly that's what it is. It's making you not want to eat. It's a crash diet.”
Means: 75% of FDA Funding Comes Directly from Pharma
“50, excuse me, 75% of the FDA is actually not funded by taxpayers. It's funded by pharma itself, and bureaucracies are built to grow.”
Means: Healthcare VCs fund repackaged existing drugs instead of true disruption
“I talked to a lot of esteemed healthcare VCs and they think innovation is putting a millennial pink package on Viagra and shipping it to people more conveniently. They think that innovation is like better UX on medical records. You know, you look down the list…”
Means: Nine of the top ten US killers are diet-driven
“Nine out of 10 killers of Americans are foodborne illnesses. I mean, we can dance around it. It's just that simple. Like, you would wipe out heart disease, diabetes, kidney disease, respiratory illness, COVID deaths even, if you got our country metabolically m…”
Means: 95% of USDA nutrition guidelines panelists receive food or pharma funding
“The USD nutrition guidelines committee, which basically approves and recommends various foods. 95% of it is funded by 95% of the panelists are directly funded by food companies or pharma companies.”
Means: Kellogg's US products contain ADHD-linked dyes omitted in Canada
“Kellogg's is a stark example, but their ingredient list, they changed completely for the American kids versus just across the border in Canada. It has addictive ingredients. It has the colorings that make it really bright that are linked to ADHD and other deve…”
Means: 15% of American high schoolers are prescribed Adderall
“We prescribe 15% of high schoolers basically meth, you know, Adderall, which is literally like one molecule away from meth.”
Tesla and SpaceX wouldn't exist for 50 years without Elon Musk
“I think Tesla and SpaceX would not have happened and would not have happened at least for another 50 years had he not made those happen.”
Adcock: Hundreds of thousands of undetected guns enter US schools yearly
“Several 100,000 guns are being brought into schools in K to 12 every year in the U S and not found.”
Parr: Sports betting apps assign account managers to encourage losing gamblers
“DraftKings or whatever? They have account managers. So if you become, I read about this one woman who was making like, a 150 grand a year, so whatever that puts her at in terms of class, but not like crazy wealthy, and she's, and she lost all of her money, and…”
Lonsdale: US defense primes engage in innovation theater without real competition
“What happened to defense is all these companies consolidated the 19 nineties after the cold war spending went down. So they all merged and became like these giant primes. And these primes started acting a lot more like government agencies themselves, like not …”
Chief reached $100M revenue in five years by accepting all applicants
“They grew to a hundred million in revenue in four or five years. They let in 100% of the people who apply in the interview.”
Pompliano: Bitcoin will protect corporate purchasing power better than cash over 10-20 years
“I think it is riskier for a company to sit with five hundred million dollars in US dollar cash on their balance sheet than five hundred million dollars worth of Bitcoin. And the reason being that or maybe the one clarifier is if you have a long-term oriented p…”
Parr: Approachable young women drive the highest ad click-through rates
“It has to be an approachable young woman, and I have found that that gets the most clicks amongst all demographics”
Parr predicts there will eventually be more humanoid robots than humans
“I think this is so big that there's going to be more of these robots than there are humans.”
Sanchez: Grant Cardone's fundraising terms are one-sided against retail investors
“I looked at some of the fundraising docs on Grant Cardone's stuff, and I don't think it's that great for retail investors. I think it's pretty one-sided.”
Galloway: GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are a bigger deal than GPT-4
“I think GLP-I is bigger than GPT-IV.”
Galloway: GLP-1 adoption could put entire hospital networks out of business
“Hospital networks, entire hospital networks could go out of business if they're really honest.”
Galloway: VCs launch smear campaigns against critics threatening their profits
“I would say don't never get in between a venture capitalist and their second million, because they will take to Twitter and call you a plagiarist or accuse you of having done terrible things at NYU, which you've never Ever been accused of, much less people hav…”
Puri: AI adult entertainment is more ethical than human porn
“AI porn, I believe, is more ethical. So, you know, just like the way we have plant-based proteins and Cruelty-free makeup and vegan leather. No humans are going to be harmed in the production of this video, right? Like, I think that the idea that we could sati…”
Puri: An AI startup will beat legacy porn conglomerates
“Somebody's going to do, somebody's going to go after that market with AI. And I think they will win because again, way more powerful tool to satisfy demand, way lower cause and more ethical supply. That's a winning formula.”
Adcock: Humanoid robotics is bigger and easier to scale than self-driving
“And so I think it's bigger than a self-driving industry and I think it's easier to scale it once it's working.”
In media, a smart point of view beats long-term correctness
“It's more important that we have a smart point of view than that we're right in the long term.”
Manson: Andrew Tate's content is just recycled 2000s pickup material
“Watching the rise of Tate, because he just, he's like a copy and paste of half the guys that were in that industry. You know, it's like, all the shit he says, I'm like, oh yeah, I remember, you know, this guy used to say that. Oh yeah, that guy used to say tha…”
Shkreli: Made his wealth in clinical drug development, not price hikes
“A lot of people think that I take medicines and raise prices. Well, this drug was barely in human beings. It had been in like 30 or 50 people. Helped up until that point. And, you know, I made most of my money in, in sort of developments in, in environment on …”
Shkreli: Big Law Firms Easily Secure Rapid Federal Indictments
“And it's not hard if you go to a law firm, you know, like a Cooley, Cleary, Gottlieb, Skadden, Arbs, pick your, Paul Weiss, pick your biggest law firm. You say, hey, we have this guy, he did something bad, you know, look into this. You know, usually you'll get…”
Shkreli: Every insurer covered Daraprim because it was cheaper than ICU stays
“There's not an insurer in the world that didn't cover Daraprim because If you don't pay the 50,000 dollars roughly what Daraprim costs for a whole course, forget per pill, about 50 grand if you end up needing Daraprim. If you don't pay that, you're gonna pay f…”
Shkreli: In the future, humans will marry AI and AI will vote
“You know, probably some of the craziest ones I've made, including include things like they'll, they'll be kind of interspecies marriage between AI and humans. There'll be AI fundamental rights for voting and things like that. That'll kind of reshape society. S…”