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Sarah Guo

Founder & General Partner, Conviction · 1 appearance on the record.

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investorfounderhost@saranormous ↗LinkedIn ↗sarahguo.com ↗Wikipedia ↗

Sarah Guo is the founder of Conviction, an early-stage venture capital firm focused on AI-native startups, and co-hosts the technology podcast No Priors. Previously, she was a General Partner at Greylock Partners, where she invested in companies including Figma, Coda, and Neeva.

15statements → 10claims → 3claims resolved → 67%fully supported → 3.67/5average certainty → 2.07/5average debate potential → ≈4.0/5argument clarity, estimated → 2said about them ↓

2 supported 0 partly supported 1 contradicted 7 not checkable as stated how the 10 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

5 predictions · 5 assertions · 1 opinion · 4 insights · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 10 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 3 are resolved, and 7 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Sarah argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported
Guo: Video AI startup HeyGen generates tens of millions in annual revenue
“And so like now Heijen is in tens of millions of revenue.”
Sarah Guo Jul 24, 2024 ▶ 8:38 10 AI Business Ideas From The Queen of AI ft. Sarah Guo

Their most notable contradicted claim

Assertion Contradicted
Guo: ElevenLabs is the only independent voice API startup doing $10M+ revenue
“There's like exactly one independent voice API business and tens of millions of revenue, and that's 11.”
Sarah Guo Jul 24, 2024 ▶ 33:14 10 AI Business Ideas From The Queen of AI ft. Sarah Guo

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

none yet certainty 1
none yet certainty 2
100% certainty 3
50% certainty 4
none yet certainty 5

weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet

How they sound: not measured why? →

We measure speaking style by listening to the audio itself, and a fair number needs at least 2,000 words from one person on tape we have measured. There is too little of Sarah Guo on measured tape to publish a rate. This says nothing about how they speak.

Everything Sarah Guo said on My First Million that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Opinion
Guo: Ignore AI doom scenarios; prioritize near-term fraud and disinformation
“There's no linear path from here to there. And so when people ask me about like the doom scenario, like I am much more concerned about abuses we actually do understand. So for example, like what if people don't understand what information is true or not, or li…”
Sarah Guo Jul 24, 2024 ▶ 53:39 10 AI Business Ideas From The Queen of AI ft. Sarah Guo
Assertion Contradicted
Guo: ElevenLabs is the only independent voice API startup doing $10M+ revenue
“There's like exactly one independent voice API business and tens of millions of revenue, and that's 11.”
Sarah Guo Jul 24, 2024 ▶ 33:14 10 AI Business Ideas From The Queen of AI ft. Sarah Guo
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Guo: Solo devs are generating $1M cash flow from AI companion apps
“Some of those people are generating a million dollars of cashflow for themselves. It's not because they're deep AI people.”
Sarah Guo Jul 24, 2024 ▶ 3:42 10 AI Business Ideas From The Queen of AI ft. Sarah Guo
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Guo: HeyGen has never spent a dollar on paid marketing
“They've never spent a dollar on like paid marketing.”
Sarah Guo Jul 24, 2024 ▶ 8:41 10 AI Business Ideas From The Queen of AI ft. Sarah Guo
Insight
Guo: Scaling an AI startup beyond $1M requires deepening product scope
“What's the difference between like the first million and the next nine hundred ninety-nine million? It is whether or not the capability exists in the company to make the product deeper and keep expanding scope for what you do for your customer, right?”
Sarah Guo Jul 24, 2024 ▶ 16:21 10 AI Business Ideas From The Queen of AI ft. Sarah Guo
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Guo: A game world populated with AI companions will be massive
“There's a version of that company that's somewhere between, like, a companion and a game world that will be very big.”
Sarah Guo Jul 24, 2024 ▶ 23:28 10 AI Business Ideas From The Queen of AI ft. Sarah Guo
Insight
Guo: Software 3.0 focuses on manipulating foundation models, not training them
“Software three dot O is the idea that the next generation of software, a lot of it is about manipulating foundation models and they're called foundation models because they have a lot of capability out of the box. You don't need to train them from scratch. You…”
Sarah Guo Jul 24, 2024 ▶ 40:50 10 AI Business Ideas From The Queen of AI ft. Sarah Guo
Insight
Guo: If a workflow can be outsourced to humans, AI can automate it
“And so I think that will happen in a bunch of different areas where, like, basically, if you can create separation of that work already to outsource it, then maybe you can outsource it to a machine as well.”
Sarah Guo Jul 24, 2024 ▶ 44:54 10 AI Business Ideas From The Queen of AI ft. Sarah Guo
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Guo: Trillions are at stake in specialized AI data center solutions
“And so, like, if that's true, there's gonna be a bunch of different, like, new specialized solutions, and it's trillions of dollars of value at stake. And it's not just, like, Single direct attack on NVIDIA. That is like the opportunity.”
Sarah Guo Jul 24, 2024 ▶ 47:50 10 AI Business Ideas From The Queen of AI ft. Sarah Guo
Insight
Guo: Niche AI model wrappers with internet distribution are modern dropshipping
“If you can figure out internet distribution and then get, you know, super powerful models getting increasingly powerful to just do something useful in a niche, those two things together, that's like the new drop shipping.”
Sarah Guo Jul 24, 2024 ▶ 1:48 10 AI Business Ideas From The Queen of AI ft. Sarah Guo
Assertion Supported
Guo: Video AI startup HeyGen generates tens of millions in annual revenue
“And so like now Heijen is in tens of millions of revenue.”
Sarah Guo Jul 24, 2024 ▶ 8:38 10 AI Business Ideas From The Queen of AI ft. Sarah Guo
Prediction Held up
Guo: AI video generation will produce $1B in revenue
“And so I think this is a good example of, like, I think there's a billion dollars of video generation revenue for them or for others, but, like, you know, you actually have to invest in the product pretty deeply, but it doesn't mean that your wedge can't be re…”
Sarah Guo Jul 24, 2024 ▶ 13:10 10 AI Business Ideas From The Queen of AI ft. Sarah Guo
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Guo predicts voice AI services will handle phone operations across service SMBs
“I think there are going to be a bunch of interesting voice services for everything from restaurants to HVAC companies to dental reception that are just like answer the phone.”
Sarah Guo Jul 24, 2024 ▶ 33:51 10 AI Business Ideas From The Queen of AI ft. Sarah Guo
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Guo: Fine-tuning to specific voices is AI writing's next major unlock
“I think the next level of like value and impact is definitely going to be fine tuning to specific voice.”
Sarah Guo Jul 24, 2024 ▶ 39:28 10 AI Business Ideas From The Queen of AI ft. Sarah Guo
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Guo: Medical AI scribe startups Abridge, Nabla, and Freed are growing rapidly
“And now there are a number of scribe businesses in medicine that are growing really fast, like Abridge, Nabla, Freed.”
Sarah Guo Jul 24, 2024 ▶ 44:47 10 AI Business Ideas From The Queen of AI ft. Sarah Guo

The other half of the tape: Sarah Guo's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 2 times in 1 episode on My First Million. every mention, with the transcript →

Who brings them up most Sam Parr 2

Every mention by year

tap a year for its mentions
0011212023episodesmentions
0112023episodes it came up in
0010.5212023episodesmentions per episode
2023 2 mentions in 1 episode

Appearances (1)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
10 AI Business Ideas From The Queen of AI ft. Sarah Guo Jul 24, 2024 25m
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