The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 537 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 69 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Currier: Nvidia and big LLM training companies will eventually go to zero
“So both Nvidia and all of these giant LM companies who are spending all this money on training are going to go to zero eventually.”
Srinivasan: Crypto will replace Yale Law, Columbia Journalism, and Kennedy School
“Crypto is not just, you know, the next wall street. It's also the next Silicon Valley because decentralized social networks and so on are built there, but even less, obviously it's the next Yale law and Columbia school of journalism and Kennedy school of gover…”
Adcock: The biggest company in 10-15 years will make AI humanoids
“So here at figure what's so, so at a high level, the biggest company, the next 1015 years in the world will be human, like AI powered humanoids. That like, that's for sure going to happen.”
Shkreli: Machines will replace human doctors entirely within 30 years
“There's, if we do our jobs right, there's no such thing as a doctor in 30 years. That every operation, every prescription, every piece of medical advice you ever get from now on comes from a machine and it costs 10 cents.”
Puri: Future corporate hierarchies will invert, with humans working for AI bosses
“And I think actually it's going the other way, which is it's not that the AI works for us, but that we work for the AI. And people are going to hate that sentence, but let me just describe what that means. AI is very good at Understanding a broad set of inform…”
Puri: AI may cure death and revive cryopreserved people within 30 years
“It's not crazy that in the next 30 years that AI's gonna figure out how to, like, cure a lot of disease, death, to be able to bring back cryogenically frozen people to be alive, or to, like, upload their consciousness, upload their brain into some sort of, lik…”
Puri: Central AI will manage corporate strategy while humans become junior assistants
“The super intelligence is going to be the boss. You're going to be the junior thing. And so and that's what he's, that's what these guys are talking about, Brian Halligan and Jack Dorsey, which is that actually there'll be like a central AI that's making the k…”
Graham Weaver: AI app startups with $500M valuations will go to zero
“And they'll have two million of revenue and a five hundred million dollar valuation, and they're gonna go to zero. Like, they're gonna be worth absolutely zero.”
Shaan Puri predicts China's elite talent pipeline will outcompete US education
“Whereas if other countries are taking this idea of, like, your job is to produce talent quickly and early, and that, like, it's, the goal is greatness, and let's be competitive about it. Like, what's going to happen over a 20 year arc, right? Like, you're goin…”
Galloway says most profitable companies exploit immature prefrontal cortexes of young men
“The most profitable companies are going to be the ones tapping into an immature prefrontal cortex of an American male.”
Puri: Functional robots will outnumber humans globally
“As soon as they have robots that can actually do functional work, they're gonna sell billions and billions. There's gonna be more robots than humans.”
Mazzeo: Human taste is not a durable moat against AI generation
“I think all these people who are, like, taste Is our salvation are going to get leased at all. It's going to hurt real. It's going to hurt real bad. They're going to run into the brick wall of consumer choice on taste.”
Lemkin: Traditional B2B SaaS interfaces and CRMs are going to die
“And when we're in ChatGPT 24 hours a day, we're not going to like pull up a CRM. We're not going to use the interfaces. Like these interfaces are all Already dying. You can see it, Sam. And then the amount of time you spend in GPT, like then go to like a B to …”
Currier: Unlimited AI processing will run on phone CPUs within four years
“AI is going to be like water. You're going to get free unlimited AI processing on your CPU. On your phone within three to four years. There's no doubt it's going to free”
O'Brien: Saronic's trajectory could deter China from invading Taiwan
“They're, you know, gonna make the South China Sea a hellscape and make China now wanna cross that that, that, that ocean and keep Taiwan safe if they keep going on the path they're doing”
Wilkinson: Rolling Out Existing AI and Self-Driving Would Eliminate 20% of Jobs
“So if we just paused AI, we shut down all the AI labs and all we focused on was just rollout of what already exists. I think probably Between self-driving cars and AI agents, 20% of all current jobs are gone.”
Wilkinson: Software will commoditize as AI eliminates coding barriers
“And so my belief is basically that as more and more people don't need to learn how to code and can build software, software will become more and more commoditized. There'll be way more competition and it'll be a way harder world for software businesses.”
Pompliano: Bitcoin will protect corporate purchasing power better than cash over 10-20 years
“I think it is riskier for a company to sit with five hundred million dollars in US dollar cash on their balance sheet than five hundred million dollars worth of Bitcoin. And the reason being that or maybe the one clarifier is if you have a long-term oriented p…”
Parr predicts there will eventually be more humanoid robots than humans
“I think this is so big that there's going to be more of these robots than there are humans.”
Galloway: GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are a bigger deal than GPT-4
“I think GLP-I is bigger than GPT-IV.”
Galloway: GLP-1 adoption could put entire hospital networks out of business
“Hospital networks, entire hospital networks could go out of business if they're really honest.”
Puri: An AI startup will beat legacy porn conglomerates
“Somebody's going to do, somebody's going to go after that market with AI. And I think they will win because again, way more powerful tool to satisfy demand, way lower cause and more ethical supply. That's a winning formula.”
Shkreli: In the future, humans will marry AI and AI will vote
“You know, probably some of the craziest ones I've made, including include things like they'll, they'll be kind of interspecies marriage between AI and humans. There'll be AI fundamental rights for voting and things like that. That'll kind of reshape society. S…”
Sam Parr: Elon Musk will face severe cancellation and Tesla will tank
“One, Elon Musk either dies or he or he gets canceled or he gets canceled in an incredibly like serious way. And Tesla stock completely tanks.”
Rose predicts generative AI will make Fiverr completely non-existent
“Whether it be creative writing or I believe Fiverr as a company, it will just be non-existent. It's going to destroy the low end of the creative market initially and then work its way up the chain.”
Luckey: The odds of a tactical nuclear weapon being used are high
“And so for that reason, I think this is a little contrarian and not everyone agrees, but I think that the odds of a tactical nuclear weapon are very high. It will not be used on the United States. It will not be used on a NATO ally. It'll probably be a tactica…”
Parr: Children born today will have more AI friends than humans
“Children born today are likely to have more AI friends than human friends. AI friends are going to be more reliable. I don't even know what that word, conciliatory. What's that mean? Agreeable and considerate. What does this mean? What does this mean for child…”
Holiday: Shopify will become the biggest company in the world
“This is why I think Shopify is gonna be, like, the biggest company in the world, because they, like, let people do that.”
Tech salary inflation will reverse as remote hiring shifts overseas
“I think that this high salary inflation is not here to stay. I think what's happened is all these companies down in San Francisco are going, oh, crazy. We can hire cheap people in Canada, but they're not yet going, oh, hey, we can hire people in India and the …”
Puri: Lab-grown meat will make animal slaughter for food obsolete
“It's going to change because we're going to have a good substitute, which is lab grown meat. So people are going to be able to make, make the same steak you want without killing the animal. And then in that case, killing the animal is going to look absolutely …”
Parr: Lambda School will likely go out of business by 2023
“I think my prediction if I had to bet money on it is that it won't work.”
Maples: Decentralized cloud societies will eventually function like future nation-states
“What I think happens at the limit is that all of these different cloud cultures are like their own societies.
And so right now the main, main organizing principle of society is the nation state, which is also an economies of scale centric model.
Right.
But if …”
Srinivasan: Very few pre-internet institutions will survive the internet
“I think very few institutions that predated the internet will survive the internet in the fullness of time.”
Balaji: On-chain skill badges will destroy the college diploma
“Now, why that kind of thing is important is it totally destroys the concept of a college diploma. The reason being college diploma is a very, very coarse grained you know, kind of illustration of somebody's skills.”
Balaji: Cryptography will displace corporate media as the font of truth
“And that is actually a very powerful thing where we start to actually displace a corporate media corporation as the font of truth with cryptography instead.”
Balaji: All finance will become crypto
“With CS and stats, by the way, you can understand finance, because it's crypto, or it'll all become crypto.”
Shaan Puri: Clubhouse will ultimately fail despite its massive hype
“I wrote a thread about Clubhouse, and the thread starts basically saying, you know, everybody seems to think that Clubhouse is the next big thing, and I think it's gonna fail, and here's how I think it's gonna go down.”
Saylor: Bitcoin will become a $10T primary global treasury reserve asset
“You know, people that understand Bitcoin think it's going to grow to become the 10 trillion dollar asset that gold is, and then it's going to replace negative yielding sovereign debt and then corporate debt and ultimately it will become the primary treasury re…”
Foster: Cheap software creation will make personality the main differentiator
“Like when it is so cheap to build software, I think you're going to see more software that has
Like a personality to it.”
Foster: Future worker value and pay will depend on managing AI agents
“Yes. I feel pretty confident that that is the direction we're heading to.”
Liemandt: In 20 years, 90% of parents will still use physical schools
“In 20 years, parents are going to drop their kids off at a building. 90% of parents, you have homeschool little stuff, but it's a niche. Nine percent of parents are going to drop their kids off at a building. And in that building are other kids and adults”
Puri: AI will outperform financial analysts, forcing them into field data gathering
“It's not guys sitting at spreadsheets, because guess what? The AI is much better at sitting there looking at a spreadsheet, reading every earnings report, listening to every earnings call on earth simultaneously, and coming up with the right decision. It's gon…”
Puri: $20K humanoid robots will surpass the iPhone as biggest product ever
“Dude, these robots, When they work, it's going to be the biggest product ever invented in the history of mankind, bigger than the iPhone, bigger than anything. When you get a 20,000 dollar robot that can do, do work, it is the biggest product ever.”
Weaver: AI technology across many industries will become commoditized, not a differentiator
“I think the technology in many, many industries is going to be commoditized... I think ultimately, I think most people are gonna have access to the same technology. So it'll be a tool and it'll help everybody, but it's not gonna be the thing, you know, it's no…”
Weaver: VC-backed AI rollups in property management lack technological advantage
“I know there's been a bunch of AI native rollups launched by venture firms in property management. What tech, like what's their real advantage? Like, are they gonna have technology that's better than anyone else? I would say the answer is no.”