Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2027
Rose predicts generative AI will make Fiverr completely non-existent
“Whether it be creative writing or I believe Fiverr as a company, it will just be non-existent. It's going to destroy the low end of the creative market initially and then work its way up the chain.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2027
Rose: AI will write 90% of a New York Times bestseller by 2027
“I have no doubt in the next five years we'll see a New York Times bestseller that was 90% written by AI.”
Opinion
Kevin Rose: Crypto and NFTs are more fun because of blue ocean opportunities
“When I've kind of gotten into the art and NFT side of Things. That world and the world of cryptocurrency is probably the most fun because it is so blue ocean and there's just so much to be built there. It's not building yet another app and competing on, on CAC…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rose: AI will perform 90% of Figma interface design work by 2025
“But this is like inning one, like two, three years from now, it'll be doing 90% of the work versus, you know, the first right now was probably 20% of the work.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rose: Over 90% of long-term NFT users will not know they are using NFTs
“90 plus percent of people that interact with NFTs over the long term, I believe won't even know it as they're doing it as an NFT.”
Disclosure
Rose: Partnering with winery to launch physical bottle-backed NFTs in four months
“I'm working with A well-known, like very culty kind of wine producer out there... So one thing that is happening in the next Four months will be the issuance of NFTs to people that is going to be from a major well-known winery where it will represent one physi…”
Assertion Partly supported
Rose: Watch blog Hodinkee generates over $100M in annual revenue
“It's over a hundred million revenue a year now, which is nuts.”
Disclosure
Rose: Viral prototype demo video secured allocation in Square's seed round
“Cause I hit Jack up and I was like, Hey, I heard you're doing this new credit card thing. I'd like to be an angel investor. And he's like, Oh dude, it's oversubscribed. I'm sorry. Like we've closed the round, like blah, blah. And I was like, damn it. I'm like,…”
Insight
Rose: Hire technical domain obsessives and teach them to write
“The best way to do that was to find people that had the natural, organic, built-in, a love for horology. Like, just this, like, for all things mechanical watches. So, you know, we would have writers that if you take, for example, like, the Speedmaster, the wat…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rose: My controversial San Francisco house demolition was due to asbestos
“The historical building thing was definitely not true. That, that, that was a pretty funny one in that but that was that was just people wanting to keep an old house up in the neighborhood, and they called it historical, even though it really wasn't. We wanted…”
Disclosure
Rose: Uses safe deposit boxes to safeguard personal crypto keys
“I'm not in that camp. I do that personally and use safety deposit box and a whole slew of things to safeguard that for some things. But there's other solutions where, where a hybrid approach makes more sense.”
Assertion Supported
Rose: Rolex manufactures over 1 million watches annually but conceals the number
“Something you may not know about Rolex is they make over a million Rolexes per year. And so Rolex hides that number.”
Insight
Kevin Rose: Blockchain data persistence prevents loyalty program loss if startups fail
“The beautiful thing about it being decentralized, and this is one argument for decentralization, is that it's forever on the chain and you're not dependent upon a company being around for that to exist.
So if an artist is engaged with a startup,
That is workin…”
Disclosure
Rose allocates 10% of his overall portfolio to crypto and NFTs
“The crypto side of things is like, you know, let's call it 50% NFTs and 50% digital assets. And that's, you know, probably 10% of my overall.”
Disclosure
Kevin Rose: 90% of his 10 to 15 ventures went to zero
“I've done that a handful of times. You know, probably at least 10 to 15 businesses of which, you know, 90% of them go to zero, and then there's a few that pop and become, you know, pretty big.”
Assertion Partly supported
Rose: Digg reached around 38M monthly users at its peak in 2006
“When I was in the middle of web two point O, which was the, when dig was at its peak, which was about a 2000, early 2006. You know, we were hitting around thirty eight million people a month using the site.”
Assertion Supported
Rose: Revision3 sold to Discovery Channel for $35M
“Revision three where I was the co-founder is a media company that became Discovery Channel's digital arm, and we sold that for a thirty five million dollars back in 2008 or something like that.”
Disclosure
Rose: Selling Digg secondary shares funded early Twitter and Facebook checks
“I sold a little bit of my dig stock enough to give me the ammo to go and do small C checks, you know, and put, you know, 25 K into, you know, Twitter's seed round and put, you know, 25 K and, or it was more into Facebook, but they're a little bit later stage.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rose: Zero grew from tens of thousands to over 1M MAUs
“When I launched Xero, it sat at, you know, tens of thousands of users for the first eight months, and then fasting hit, and it became more of a household thing, and people were talking about intermittent fasting, it was all over TV, and different, you know, pl…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rose: Tiiny hit hundreds of thousands of downloads before collapsing
“We launched, and it just, it caught fire immediately, and we had, you know, hundreds of thousands of downloads in the first week, and then it just died off completely, and everyone was like, ah, that was a fad. That was a fun little fad, and that one we shut d…”
Disclosure
Rose, Jack Dorsey, and Brian Armstrong are funding dog longevity trials
“Myself and Jack Dorsey and Brian from Coinbase and a few others all have been putting money into funding studies at the University of Washington to really prove this out in dogs and canines, and then eventually move it into human trials.”
Disclosure
Rose keeps the majority of his liquid portfolio in Vanguard index funds
“The majority of my, you know, personal holdings is, is still standard, you know, index funds that, that are pretty vanilla, the low cost index funds, you know, the Vanguard way”
Assertion Supported
Rose: New luxury watch market exceeds ten billion dollars annually
“New, new, new luxury watches are double digit billions of dollars in a year in, in terms of market size.”
Kevin Rose