The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Opinion
Belsky: AI-generated fake media is helpful because it inoculates society
“But I also think we're all gonna be gradually inoculated, and I think, honestly, like, fake stuff is really helpful for society right now because it inoculates us and makes us realize we can't trust what we see anymore.”
Scott Belsky Aug 14, 2026 ▶ 54:03 Special Edition MOL with Josh Wolfe, Rachel Holt, Scott Belsky, Scott Stanford, and Peter Deng. · More or Less Podcast
Insight
Belsky: AI favors incumbents by embedding superpowers directly into existing workflows
“If you can just surface some of these superpowers in the workflows that customers have, so that tomorrow when they log in, suddenly they have it, then they don't have to, Necessarily go to an entirely new place and abs, you know, go through the friction of doi…”
Scott Belsky Sep 29, 2023 ▶ 9:18 #16: Why Your AI Startup is Probably Already Dead · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Belsky: Many AI Applications Will Run Locally on Smaller Models
“I happen to believe by the way that a lot of AI powered things are going to be able to be run locally. And that, you know, and also with less powerful models that, you know, for good enough outcomes.”
Scott Belsky Sep 29, 2023 ▶ 32:11 #16: Why Your AI Startup is Probably Already Dead · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Belsky: AI Model Routers Will Commoditize and Directing Spend Local Will Become Default
“And it's going to be probably pretty commoditized pretty quickly. And so you're going to all have Routers that direct all sorts of spend to look more local, more efficient models. Like this is going to become the default.”
Scott Belsky Aug 14, 2026 ▶ 25:38 Special Edition MOL with Josh Wolfe, Rachel Holt, Scott Belsky, Scott Stanford, and Peter Deng. · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Belsky predicts AI agents will protect users from AI-driven harms
“Agents are going to save us from all the concerns we have about AI, because a lot of the concerns around AI.”
Scott Belsky Sep 29, 2023 ▶ 28:03 #16: Why Your AI Startup is Probably Already Dead · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Contradicted
Belsky: Platforms like Instagram treat C2PA provenance as a binary AI label
“These companies like Instagram, you know, and products that are surfacing media for them, it's binary. It's like, if it has a CGPA in it that says any AI was used, they reported as being made with AI.”
Scott Belsky Aug 14, 2026 ▶ 53:24 Special Edition MOL with Josh Wolfe, Rachel Holt, Scott Belsky, Scott Stanford, and Peter Deng. · More or Less Podcast
Disclosure
Belsky: Adobe builds proprietary creative models but partners on LLMs
“We've kind of come out publicly and said, hey, for all the creative models, we're going to build our own, because we feel like we have the data sets and the experience on that, but on the LLM side, we're partnering with a number of these folks, and we are just…”
Scott Belsky Sep 29, 2023 ▶ 20:57 #16: Why Your AI Startup is Probably Already Dead · More or Less Podcast
Insight
Belsky Outlines an AI Agent Pyramid From Help Desk to Proactive Actions
“My view is that an agent is literally not only in the pyramid of things, right? It can start by answering your questions and it's a glorified help desk, but then going up the pyramid a little bit, it starts to proactively do things for you. Like it's sort of, …”
Scott Belsky Sep 29, 2023 ▶ 22:22 #16: Why Your AI Startup is Probably Already Dead · More or Less Podcast
Opinion
Belsky: AI-driven government refactoring is one of the world's biggest TAMs
“Like, to me, that's probably one of the biggest TAMs in the world, is government spending and refactoring a lot of these operations.”
Scott Belsky Sep 29, 2023 ▶ 42:48 #16: Why Your AI Startup is Probably Already Dead · More or Less Podcast
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