The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 110 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Dave Morin: College football and basketball teams will go private in 2025
“2025 will be the year that we see college football and basketball teams going private.”
Vascellaro: Annual greenlit TV shows fell from 650 to roughly half
“There was 650 TV shows that were greenlit last year, and now there's maybe half.”
Dave Morin: Microsoft 'quite literally had to buy a nuclear power plant'
“Microsoft quite literally had to buy a nuclear power plant, right?”
Brit Morin: Radar breast cancer detection technology will launch commercially in 2025
“This technology will be launching next year though, so soon you won't have to do a stupid mammogram.”
Brit Morin: Harris's unrealized gains tax proposal only impacts 5,000 people
“Harris was talking about unrealized gains tax, which really only impacts like 5000 people.”
Morin: Google 20% projects required pitching to Page, Brin, and Schmidt
“When you pitched a 20% project, you had to pitch it to Larry, Sergey, and Eric. You had to go to, like, the exact meeting. Pitch the project and explain to them how you were going to also keep up your normal day job while doing the project.”
Morin: AI boyfriends far outpace AI girlfriends in App Store usage
“Well, there was a piece this week, I'll have to find it, that looked at the data in terms of what's being used in the App Store, and AI boyfriends are far outpacing AI girlfriends, apparently.”
Sam Lessin: ByteDance Will Sell TikTok to Saudi Buyers
“They're going to sell, you know, they're going to sell it to the Saudis.”
Jessica Lessin says Bloomberg newsroom employees must badge in for bathroom breaks
“Bloomberg does that. You have to badge in and out of the bathroom. Don't work at Bloomberg. Work at the information. It's true. The newsroom. You have to badge in and out of your desk, including, like, bathroom breaks, so.”
Brit Morin: California VCs must report portfolio diversity starting March 2025
“Yeah, starting March, twenty-twenty-five, we are all going to be reporting our Diversity status of all of our portfolio vendors, which I think is going to get really murky.”
Less Than 1% of Founders Taking Companies Public Are Female
“One of like less than one percent of the founders who took a company public in the last 10 years were female.”
Every Instacart Investor Since 2015 Is Underwater Post-IPO
“Basically everyone, everyone since 2015 is underwater.”
Belsky: Platforms like Instagram treat C2PA provenance as a binary AI label
“These companies like Instagram, you know, and products that are surfacing media for them, it's binary. It's like, if it has a CGPA in it that says any AI was used, they reported as being made with AI.”
Lessin: Microsoft is the only big tech company consistently down in 2026
“Microsoft is the only of the big tech companies that has been consistently down this year and is like investors are really worried about Microsoft and all the things we talk about day in and day out.”
Dave Morin: OpenClaw Foundation Is Chartered as a Delaware Nonprofit
“It's a Delaware non-profit. Why Delaware? We are chartered as of last week. It's actually news I haven't published, so I should probably put it out there.”
Brit Morin: Chinese sellers grew to 57% of Amazon's active global base
“Last year, Chinese sellers represented 50% of active sellers on Amazon globally. This year, Chinese sellers represent 57% of Amazon sellers globally.”
Brit Morin: SF deployed 150 drones per month over the past year
“Guys, we've deployed a 150 drones per month for like the last year.”
Landesberg: $5T in Western Home Assets Face High Fire Risk
“Insurance companies are basically saying, Hey, if we can't insure a whole big portion of the American West, and that's a very strong economic motivator for something like five trillion of home assets that's at high fire risk right now, it's an insane number.”
Lessin: Jim Balsillie told WSJ 'thin is not a comparative advantage'
“Yes, Jim Balsillie, the one who talked to people. And he said, and you can find this quote in the Wall Street Journal, as I did, thin is not a comparative advantage.”
Sam Lessin: Meta added an OpenAI-sized market cap in five post-market minutes
“Meta just added an OpenAI in five minutes to their market cap after the market close, so I don't know how that's going to blow out for anyone.”
Dave Morin: Adjusted for inflation, Snap stock never gained since IPO
“It's basically been sideways to down, and if you factor in inflation, like, they've never been up since since IPO.”
Dave Morin: X's valuation in its recent fundraise dropped by $10 billion
“The price is down ten billion from, I think it was in the thirties.”
Morin: 80% of YC Demo Day Batch Was Agentic AI for SaaS CRM
“80% of YC was agentic AI for some SaaS CRM use case.”
Sam Lessin: Nvidia lost $600M in market cap post-DeepSeek
“Our guess was 10%, and we guessed three hundred million. It was actually closer to six hundred million.”
Sam Lessin: Twitter Once Relied on Single Mac Mini to Stay Online
“Twitter was at one point reliant on a single Mac mini to stay on the internet.”
Brit Morin: Elon Musk's STEM university will launch by late 2025
“And so I do think like, This will get off the ground by the end of the next year.”
Morin: US-China Digital Trade Has Been Completely One-Sided for 30 Years
“We cannot export Digital into China at all, right? Like our bits do not flow through their firewall. Like, you know, most of our companies cannot operate there and the inverse is not true, right? Like you bite dance, you name it. Like all of the Chinese compan…”
Lessin: Washington Policy Czars Do Not Require Financial Divestment
“Czar, so, czar, you see like policy czars for different areas. They're pretty common in Washington, and they basically mean like an unofficial advisor who can, Doesn't have to divest of their other interests.”
Dave Morin: Women made up under 5% of the VC industry
“This isn't like a shocking thing to say, but like, you know, what is it even as of like a few years ago, less than five percent of the people working in the industry were women.”
Sam Lessin: Chinese retailers route goods through Mexico using trade agreements
“Well, no, the strategy they now do is they're just moving it all to Mexico, right? And then using NAFTA to get it in.”
Dave Morin: Apple's native parental control features have languished for years
“Cause that's the thing that I think about a lot is that the Apple ones haven't been updated in years.”
Brit Morin Predicts Kamala Harris Will Choose Mark Kelly or Josh Shapiro
“I know it'll be Kelly or Shapiro”
Lessin: The entire Android team came from General Magic
“The entire Android team was the General Magic team. So like generations later in a very different form, the people that did General Magic did come back around and did do an important part of the history of mobile computing, right?”
Brit Morin: Taylor Swift Drew More Visitors to Paris Than the Olympics
“She brought more people to Paris than the Olympics are expected to.”
Brit Morin: Bobbie Customer SPV Investors Are Up 10x
“Well, the Bobby investors are very happy. It's up 10 X since they invested”
Dave Morin: Google AI Predicts NFL Pass Rushers Better Than Live Announcers
“Apparently Google I think on YouTube with sports and the NFL, they're basically, like, have these little rings that show up underneath the athletes as they move into position before the play starts, and the AI is actually predicting who's going to rush the qua…”
Brit Morin Says Bumble Is Deploying AI Agents for Dating Negotiation
“Bumble is already starting to do this, by the way. So props to Whitney. Bumble. Whitney over there is Is starting to.”
Brit Morin: SF downtown mobile activity sits at 27% of 2019 baseline
“And San Francisco's is only at like 27% versus what it was in 2019. I mean, everyone is down across the board, but the next lowest is Chicago at like 45%. And even New York, which ranks the highest, is only at like 65 Percent versus the norm of 2019.”
Brit Morin: Theme park profit margins exceed 50%
“Oh my god, the margins of the parks yeah, they're over 50%, and the ups, it's the upsell, so it's not only the ticket price, but then you're upselling them on products, food, you know, all the, you know, upgraded VIP passes.”
Dave Morin: Reddit blackouts caused meaningful degradation of Google Search results
“I think one of the interesting things this morning was that the somebody did an analysis that Google search results are meaningfully worse off today because of the Reddit stuff going on.”
Stanford: Fitch is conducting a consultation on securitizing compute
“Fitch is doing the rating work right now, and they have an open consultation, which basically means they're trying to figure out which end is up because no one's ever securitized compute.”
AI music startup Suno raised a funding round at $5 billion valuation
“So Suno raised around like five billion.”
Brit Morin: Apparel brand Quince reached $2 billion in 2025 revenue
“Well, Quince did two billion in revenue this year.”
Landesberg: Fire helicopters cost $12,000 to $15,000 per hour to operate
“The typical fire helicopter is somewhere between 12 and 15,000 dollars an hour to operate.”
Jessica Lessin: Average customer service interaction costs companies $20 to $30
“The average customer service costs cost the company between 20 and 30 dollars.”
Brit Morin: Dude Perfect Is a Top 10 YouTube Channel Globally
“And I just continue to remain fascinated by how a YouTube brand like Dude Perfect, which is one of the top 10 biggest channels globally, can command the adoration and love of young boys in like such a way where they rank it higher than anything they've ever do…”