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Jan 12, 2024 · 50m · more-or-less

#29: Is the Year of Startup Austerity Over? What Can Save the News Business? · More or Less Podcast

Sam Lessin · 16m spoken Jessica Lessin · 16m spoken Dave Morin · 5m spoken Brit Morin · 5m spoken Will Rubin · 23s spoken
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In this episode of the More or Less podcast, co-hosts Jessica Lessin, Sam Lessin, Dave Morin, and Britt Morin examine the realities of tech austerity in 2024, analyzing industry layoffs, the Carta equity scandal, and the landmark copyright clash between The New York Times and OpenAI that imperils the future of independent journalism.

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 86.4% of the talking time here. How this is scored →

The hosts as informed peer 5.8 Guest teaching 2.2 Guest disagreement 2.3 The hosts pushing back 2.7
05100:0015:0030:0045:000:15–6:11 · The hosts as informed peer 3/10 More or Less Podcast Opening Title Sequence Lighthearted opening segment where the hosts and Britt share New Year resolutions and playful tech startup ideas like spite apps and cancel insurance with zero friction.6:11–13:27 · The hosts as informed peer 6/10 Carta Cap Table Scandal and the Fate of Startup Platforms The group breaks down the Carta secondary market data scandal, exchanging insider perspectives on cap table software pricing and startup platform dynamics.13:27–20:59 · The hosts as informed peer 6/10 Big Tech Layoffs and Startup Austerity Debate Discussion centers on tech layoffs and whether startup austerity has peaked, with Britt challenging the hosts on where laid-off tech workers will actually find new roles.20:59–23:59 · The hosts as informed peer 6/10 Venture Capital Restructuring and Partner Realignment The hosts and Britt analyze partner mobility in venture capital, focusing on Keith Rabois returning to Khosla and how underwater carry frees partners to switch firms.23:59–39:09 · The hosts as informed peer 7/10 The New York Times v. OpenAI: Training Data, Fair Use, and Regurgitation A substantive review of the New York Times copyright lawsuit against OpenAI, where Britt offers first-hand experience regarding the historic failure of media licensing agreements.39:09–45:44 · The hosts as informed peer 7/10 The Future of Journalism and the Threatened Truth Economy A spirited debate on the collapse of the journalism business model, where Britt rejects cynical claims about public apathy and defends non-profit media models despite host skepticism.0:15–6:11 · Guest teaching 1/10 More or Less Podcast Opening Title Sequence Lighthearted opening segment where the hosts and Britt share New Year resolutions and playful tech startup ideas like spite apps and cancel insurance with zero friction.6:11–13:27 · Guest teaching 2/10 Carta Cap Table Scandal and the Fate of Startup Platforms The group breaks down the Carta secondary market data scandal, exchanging insider perspectives on cap table software pricing and startup platform dynamics.13:27–20:59 · Guest teaching 2/10 Big Tech Layoffs and Startup Austerity Debate Discussion centers on tech layoffs and whether startup austerity has peaked, with Britt challenging the hosts on where laid-off tech workers will actually find new roles.20:59–23:59 · Guest teaching 2/10 Venture Capital Restructuring and Partner Realignment The hosts and Britt analyze partner mobility in venture capital, focusing on Keith Rabois returning to Khosla and how underwater carry frees partners to switch firms.23:59–39:09 · Guest teaching 3/10 The New York Times v. OpenAI: Training Data, Fair Use, and Regurgitation A substantive review of the New York Times copyright lawsuit against OpenAI, where Britt offers first-hand experience regarding the historic failure of media licensing agreements.39:09–45:44 · Guest teaching 3/10 The Future of Journalism and the Threatened Truth Economy A spirited debate on the collapse of the journalism business model, where Britt rejects cynical claims about public apathy and defends non-profit media models despite host skepticism.0:15–6:11 · Guest disagreement 1/10 More or Less Podcast Opening Title Sequence Lighthearted opening segment where the hosts and Britt share New Year resolutions and playful tech startup ideas like spite apps and cancel insurance with zero friction.6:11–13:27 · Guest disagreement 2/10 Carta Cap Table Scandal and the Fate of Startup Platforms The group breaks down the Carta secondary market data scandal, exchanging insider perspectives on cap table software pricing and startup platform dynamics.13:27–20:59 · Guest disagreement 3/10 Big Tech Layoffs and Startup Austerity Debate Discussion centers on tech layoffs and whether startup austerity has peaked, with Britt challenging the hosts on where laid-off tech workers will actually find new roles.20:59–23:59 · Guest disagreement 2/10 Venture Capital Restructuring and Partner Realignment The hosts and Britt analyze partner mobility in venture capital, focusing on Keith Rabois returning to Khosla and how underwater carry frees partners to switch firms.23:59–39:09 · Guest disagreement 2/10 The New York Times v. OpenAI: Training Data, Fair Use, and Regurgitation A substantive review of the New York Times copyright lawsuit against OpenAI, where Britt offers first-hand experience regarding the historic failure of media licensing agreements.39:09–45:44 · Guest disagreement 4/10 The Future of Journalism and the Threatened Truth Economy A spirited debate on the collapse of the journalism business model, where Britt rejects cynical claims about public apathy and defends non-profit media models despite host skepticism.0:15–6:11 · The hosts pushing back 1/10 More or Less Podcast Opening Title Sequence Lighthearted opening segment where the hosts and Britt share New Year resolutions and playful tech startup ideas like spite apps and cancel insurance with zero friction.6:11–13:27 · The hosts pushing back 2/10 Carta Cap Table Scandal and the Fate of Startup Platforms The group breaks down the Carta secondary market data scandal, exchanging insider perspectives on cap table software pricing and startup platform dynamics.13:27–20:59 · The hosts pushing back 3/10 Big Tech Layoffs and Startup Austerity Debate Discussion centers on tech layoffs and whether startup austerity has peaked, with Britt challenging the hosts on where laid-off tech workers will actually find new roles.20:59–23:59 · The hosts pushing back 2/10 Venture Capital Restructuring and Partner Realignment The hosts and Britt analyze partner mobility in venture capital, focusing on Keith Rabois returning to Khosla and how underwater carry frees partners to switch firms.23:59–39:09 · The hosts pushing back 3/10 The New York Times v. OpenAI: Training Data, Fair Use, and Regurgitation A substantive review of the New York Times copyright lawsuit against OpenAI, where Britt offers first-hand experience regarding the historic failure of media licensing agreements.39:09–45:44 · The hosts pushing back 5/10 The Future of Journalism and the Threatened Truth Economy A spirited debate on the collapse of the journalism business model, where Britt rejects cynical claims about public apathy and defends non-profit media models despite host skepticism.

speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

0:00 · the hosts 61.1% · guest 38.9%0:00 · the hosts 61.1% · guest 38.9%3:00 · the hosts 84.8% · guest 15.2%3:00 · the hosts 84.8% · guest 15.2%6:00 · the hosts 87.8% · guest 12.2%6:00 · the hosts 87.8% · guest 12.2%9:00 · the hosts 94.5% · guest 5.5%9:00 · the hosts 94.5% · guest 5.5%12:00 · the hosts 74.2% · guest 25.8%12:00 · the hosts 74.2% · guest 25.8%15:00 · the hosts 91.6% · guest 8.4%15:00 · the hosts 91.6% · guest 8.4%18:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%18:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%21:00 · the hosts 90.3% · guest 9.7%21:00 · the hosts 90.3% · guest 9.7%24:00 · the hosts 97.3% · guest 2.7%24:00 · the hosts 97.3% · guest 2.7%27:00 · the hosts 65.3% · guest 34.7%27:00 · the hosts 65.3% · guest 34.7%30:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%30:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%33:00 · the hosts 99.5% · guest 0.5%33:00 · the hosts 99.5% · guest 0.5%36:00 · the hosts 86.1% · guest 13.9%36:00 · the hosts 86.1% · guest 13.9%39:00 · the hosts 98.9% · guest 1.1%39:00 · the hosts 98.9% · guest 1.1%42:00 · the hosts 76.7% · guest 23.3%42:00 · the hosts 76.7% · guest 23.3%45:00 · the hosts 92.1% · guest 7.9%45:00 · the hosts 92.1% · guest 7.9%48:00 · the hosts 61.5% · guest 38.5%48:00 · the hosts 61.5% · guest 38.5%
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 39:09 Pushing back on journalistic apathy

Britt instantly rejects Sam Lessin's assertion that society simply will not care if the professional business model of journalism completely ceases to exist by 2030.

 Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 43:46 Skepticism of non-profit media motives

Jessica and Sam swiftly push back when Britt floats public broadcasting and non-profit models as unbiased solutions, insisting non-profits harbor their own ulterior motives.

 Biggest teaching moment ▶ 27:11 Platform licensing deals always fail

Drawing on her direct experience leading a digital content company, Britt educates the hosts on why tech platform licensing guarantees have routinely fallen apart for digital publishers.

 The host holds their own ▶ 28:24 Sam's three levels of legal and tech abstraction

Sam demonstrates domain expertise by synthesizing how copyright challenges map across intellectual intuition, current legal code, and evolving systemic principles.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
ChapterTopicThe hosts as informed peerGuest teachingGuest disagreementThe hosts pushing backWhy
More or Less Podcast Opening Title Sequence 3111 Lighthearted opening segment where the hosts and Britt share New Year resolutions and playful tech startup ideas like spite apps and cancel insurance with zero friction.
Carta Cap Table Scandal and the Fate of Startup Platforms 6222 The group breaks down the Carta secondary market data scandal, exchanging insider perspectives on cap table software pricing and startup platform dynamics.
Big Tech Layoffs and Startup Austerity Debate 6233 Discussion centers on tech layoffs and whether startup austerity has peaked, with Britt challenging the hosts on where laid-off tech workers will actually find new roles.
Venture Capital Restructuring and Partner Realignment 6222 The hosts and Britt analyze partner mobility in venture capital, focusing on Keith Rabois returning to Khosla and how underwater carry frees partners to switch firms.
The New York Times v. OpenAI: Training Data, Fair Use, and Regurgitation 7323 A substantive review of the New York Times copyright lawsuit against OpenAI, where Britt offers first-hand experience regarding the historic failure of media licensing agreements.
The Future of Journalism and the Threatened Truth Economy 7345 A spirited debate on the collapse of the journalism business model, where Britt rejects cynical claims about public apathy and defends non-profit media models despite host skepticism.

Statements from this episode (9)

Disclosure
Britt Morin: Plans to launch a new AI product monthly in 2024
“I think that I will try to start a new product, not company, because that's what, I don't need like bank accounts, Every month of twenty-twenty-four using AI and like showing people how to use capital efficiency in AI to start companies faster.”
Brit Morin Jan 12, 2024 ▶ 1:16
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sam Lessin: Calendly had its best month ever due to his feud
“I got reports from the CEO and board members of Calendly that when I started going to war with them on this, they had their best month ever, and it was largely because I had done so much free marketing for them by saying how much I hate Calendly.”
Sam Lessin Jan 12, 2024 ▶ 3:21
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2027
Sam Lessin: Carta will relaunch secondary trading in two to three years
“They're going to wait two to three years until everyone forgets. And then they'll do it again. This is not over. They're just going to wait two to three years.”
Sam Lessin Jan 12, 2024 ▶ 10:00
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sam Lessin: Big tech outperformance will disperse wealth across markets
“It's like the big companies are going to crush it. That will make people a bunch of money, which then they'll like disperse into other things.”
Sam Lessin Jan 12, 2024 ▶ 16:16
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sam Lessin: 2024 will be brutal for mid-tier Series B-D startups
“I do think that for the vast majority of Lettered finance startup finance rounds, BCDs that aren't in the upper echelons are utterly crushing it. It's going to be a brutal year and they're going to be continuously refactoring their products and people to try t…”
Sam Lessin Jan 12, 2024 ▶ 16:55
Opinion
Sam Lessin: SaaS cannot match previous-cycle valuations and expectations
“Like, SaaS. Like, I just think, like, SaaS is a good, and it's not that SaaS isn't viable at all. Like, SaaS is a viable business model, like, but matching it to the valuations and expectations of the last cycle.”
Sam Lessin Jan 12, 2024 ▶ 19:13
Insight
Sam Lessin: Market downturns free VC partners by devaluing unvested carry
“One thing I would mention is that if you think about how venture capital compensation works, now's a good time for folks to move around because their carry in the last few funds ain't worth very much. And so if you think about it this way, it's like, there's l…”
Sam Lessin Jan 12, 2024 ▶ 21:40
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jessica Lessin: Copyright law will bend toward tech in AI disputes
“You know, what I also look to, if you look at last time there were major changes to copyright law and the DMCA and carving out section two 30 exemptions where tech companies were not liable, the law has definitely continued to bend to the will of the technolog…”
Jessica Lessin Jan 12, 2024 ▶ 38:15
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sam Lessin: Elites will retreat to smaller, expensive private newsletters
“What's going to happen is what happened after the printing press was invented, which is elites and people who care about the real world are going to retreat to expensive private newsletters that are great businesses, right? And smaller. And the vast majority o…”
Sam Lessin Jan 12, 2024 ▶ 44:00
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