OpenAI

also referred to as: open ai

includes OpenAI Codex, OpenAI O1, OpenAI API, OpenAI O3, OpenAI Agents SDK, OpenAI Responses API, OpenAI o Series, OpenAI AgentKit, OpenAI Realtime API, OpenAI Evals API, OpenAI GPT, OpenAI Research Team and 1 more

226 statements across 41 episodes · 118 bullish · 11 bearish · 39 people on the record · first statement Sep 4, 2022 by Ryan J. Salva · said 625 times in 79 episodes since 2022 · across every show →

Mentions by year, the whole family

brought up most by Lenny Rachitsky (325), Sherwin Wu (60), Alexander Embirikos (29), Kevin Weil (19), Nick Turley (15), Tara Seshan (14), Lazar Yovanovich (11), Dan Shipper (10)

tap a year for its mentions
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2026 196 mentions in 12 episodes 16 per episode
2025 354 mentions in 40 episodes 9 per episode
2024 28 mentions in 11 episodes 3 per episode
2023 31 mentions in 12 episodes 3 per episode
2022 16 mentions in 4 episodes 4 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about OpenAI, oldest first

Sep 4, 2022 neutral
Insight
Salva: AI code completion latency sweet spot is roughly 200 milliseconds
“It seems like right now it's around 200 milliseconds. So depending upon where you're in the world, your latency can go up or down a little bit from there, but it seems like the sweet spot is somewhere around 200 milliseconds.”
Ryan J. Salva Sep 4, 2022 ▶ 26:09 The role of AI in new product development | Ryan J. Salva (VP of Product at GitHub)
Sep 4, 2022 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
GitHub provided its Arctic Code Vault to OpenAI for model training
“And so what we did is just like the year before that, we had actually created a snapshot. Of GitHub's public code for what we call the Arctic code vault, right?... Well, we took that same data snapshot and we brought it to our friends over at OpenAI to see lik…”
Ryan J. Salva Sep 4, 2022 ▶ 20:51 The role of AI in new product development | Ryan J. Salva (VP of Product at GitHub)
Sep 4, 2022 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
OpenAI scraping GitHub repositories initially appeared to be a DoS attack
“And at the time, one of the teams that I was responsible for was GitHub's infrastructure team. You know, the team responsible for our data centers, our reliability, our uptime. And we noticed one day that we were getting hammered. I mean, absolutely hammered w…”
Ryan J. Salva Sep 4, 2022 ▶ 19:54 The role of AI in new product development | Ryan J. Salva (VP of Product at GitHub)
Sep 4, 2022
Assertion Supported
Salva: GitHub Copilot is powered by OpenAI's Codex, derived from GPT-3
“Copilot is essentially that magnified by many lines of code. It is multi-line autocomplete that is Fundamentally powered by an AI model called Codex, which is a derivative of another kind of one that you might be familiar with, GPT-III.”
Ryan J. Salva Sep 4, 2022 ▶ 11:55 The role of AI in new product development | Ryan J. Salva (VP of Product at GitHub)
May 4, 2023
Disclosure
OpenAI uses Stripe to power ChatGPT Plus monetization and financial operations
“OpenAI, for instance, is using us for monetizing chat GPT plus and all their other products, but they don't just stop there. We're actually helping power all of their subscriptions and revenue tracking and financial operations around the business.”
David Singleton May 4, 2023 ▶ 1:02:51 Building a culture of excellence | David Singleton (CTO of Stripe)
Oct 26, 2023 bullish
Disclosure
Intercom took a bet-the-farm approach to AI by rebuilding its strategy
“So we literally ripped up our strategy almost entirely and started again, like from first principles and said, okay, why do people use Intercom? You know, Intercom is a customer support product. And then very soon after that, Sam Altman, who's the, you know, f…”
Paul Adams Oct 26, 2023 ▶ 24:12 What AI means for your product strategy | Paul Adams (CPO of Intercom)
Oct 26, 2023 positive
Insight
Adams: Great AI products require ML engineers building atop foundation models
“Ultimately, you need, like, really great machine learning engineers. Like, that's where it starts. And if you don't have that, then you know, you gotta find it hard to build truly, really, truly great things. You know, so, like, what OpenAI provide what Entrop…”
Paul Adams Oct 26, 2023 ▶ 34:52 What AI means for your product strategy | Paul Adams (CPO of Intercom)
Nov 9, 2023 neutral
Opinion
Johari: OpenAI has evolved into a marketplace via plugins
“No one in their right mind would have thought of open AI as a marketplace. But OpenAI is a marketplace now. They may not want to call themselves a marketplace, but they have plugins. The plugins are flooding that, that platform.”
Ramesh Johari Nov 9, 2023 ▶ 17:33 Marketplace lessons from Uber, Airbnb, Bumble, and more | Ramesh Johari (Stanford professor)
Nov 16, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Perri: Blake Samick established product operations at Uber, Stripe, and OpenAI
“The head of product operations at Uber and the person who started it, Blake Samick, is a case study in our book, and he also did it at Stripe, and he does it at OpenAI”
Melissa Perri Nov 16, 2023 ▶ 4:17 The ultimate guide to product operations | Melissa Perri and Denise Tilles
Jan 21, 2024 neutral
Insight
Breakthroughs like ChatGPT only offer a temporary one-to-two-year talent hiring advantage
“Yeah, so if you're, if you've invented ChatGBT, you can bring in the smartest AI people for a year or two. Because, you know, everybody wants, oh, oh, the smart AI people want to work at the cutting edge with the current winner. Then they'll start arguing with…”
Richard Rumelt Jan 21, 2024 ▶ 33:40 Good Strategy, Bad Strategy | Richard Rumelt
Feb 8, 2024 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Thanksgiving 2023 was OpenAI's first planned company-wide break after launching ChatGPT
“OpenAI had been pushing for a really long time since ChatGPT came out and that was supposed to be like the first, one of the first weeks that like the whole company had like taken time away to like actually reset and have a break.”
Logan Kilpatrick Feb 8, 2024 ▶ 4:25 Inside OpenAI | Logan Kilpatrick (head of developer relations)
Feb 8, 2024
Disclosure
OpenAI will not build highly verticalized AI products like sales agents
“Versus like, we're not going to launch like some of these like very verticalized products. Like we're not going to launch like an AI sales agent. Like that's just not what we're building towards.”
Logan Kilpatrick Feb 8, 2024 ▶ 11:47 Inside OpenAI | Logan Kilpatrick (head of developer relations)
Feb 8, 2024 bullish
Prediction Held up
OpenAI plans to launch GPT Store monetization in Q1 2024
“Like I think monetization when it comes to the store later this quarter, I think is going to be extremely exciting. Like when people can get paid based on who's using their GPTs, that's going to be a huge unlock and like open a lot of people's eyes to the oppo…”
Logan Kilpatrick Feb 8, 2024 ▶ 28:14 Inside OpenAI | Logan Kilpatrick (head of developer relations)
Feb 8, 2024 positive
Insight
OpenAI views revenue merely as a proxy to acquire more compute
“Even if revenue is a goal, it's like revenue is not actually the goal. Revenue is a proxy for getting more compute, which is then like actually what helps us get towards getting more GPUs so that we can, you know, train better models and like actually get to t…”
Logan Kilpatrick Feb 8, 2024 ▶ 39:40 Inside OpenAI | Logan Kilpatrick (head of developer relations)
Feb 8, 2024 neutral
Opinion
GPT-5 will normalize as a useful tool rather than changing everything
“GPT-V is like surely going to be extremely useful and like solve some whole new echelon of Problems. Hopefully they'll be faster. Hopefully it'll be better on all these ways, but like fundamentally the same problems that exist in the world are still going to b…”
Logan Kilpatrick Feb 8, 2024 ▶ 49:28 Inside OpenAI | Logan Kilpatrick (head of developer relations)
Feb 8, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
OpenAI models will likely never match vertical tools like Harvey
“Our models are probably never going to be as capable as some of the things that Harvey's doing because like our goal and our mission is really to solve this like very general use case.”
Logan Kilpatrick Feb 8, 2024 ▶ 11:03 Inside OpenAI | Logan Kilpatrick (head of developer relations)
Feb 8, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AI products moving beyond standard chat interfaces will gain competitive edges
“You're going to have an edge on other people. If you're providing AI that's not accessible in a chat bot, like people are using a ton of chat and like, it's a really valuable service area. Like it's clearly valuable because people are using it, but I think pro…”
Logan Kilpatrick Feb 8, 2024 ▶ 55:43 Inside OpenAI | Logan Kilpatrick (head of developer relations)
Feb 8, 2024 bearish
Insight
Adding AI researchers decreases group productivity when GPU capacity is constrained
“In a world where you're constrained by the amount of GPU capacity that you have as a researcher, which is the case for OpenAI researchers, but also researchers everywhere else, like Each new researcher that you add is actually, like, a net productivity loss fo…”
Logan Kilpatrick Feb 8, 2024 ▶ 43:45 Inside OpenAI | Logan Kilpatrick (head of developer relations)
Feb 8, 2024 positive
Disclosure
OpenAI deliberately keeps its core research team small
“The actual research team who like, you know, sort of see the most of the innovation that happens at OpenAI is intentionally small. They're not Like, you know, most of the growth that OpenAI has seen is around like our customer facing roles, our engineering rol…”
Logan Kilpatrick Feb 8, 2024 ▶ 43:21 Inside OpenAI | Logan Kilpatrick (head of developer relations)
Feb 8, 2024 neutral
Disclosure
OpenAI internal teams do not use OKRs
“I actually don't think open AI is like a big OKR company. Like, I don't think teams do OKRs today”
Logan Kilpatrick Feb 8, 2024 ▶ 38:34 Inside OpenAI | Logan Kilpatrick (head of developer relations)
Feb 8, 2024 neutral
What-if
Kilpatrick: A board crisis in 5-10 years would be far more damaging
“Fast forward like five or 10 years of something like this would have happened. And we sort of hadn't gone through the hopeful upcoming like word transformation and sort of all those changes that are going to happen. I think it would have been a little bit or p…”
Logan Kilpatrick Feb 8, 2024 ▶ 7:21 Inside OpenAI | Logan Kilpatrick (head of developer relations)
Feb 8, 2024 neutral
What-if
Another company would have built frontier AI if OpenAI collapsed
“Sort of on the world scale, like, you know, somebody else will build a model if open AI disappeared and continue towards this progress of general intelligence.”
Logan Kilpatrick Feb 8, 2024 ▶ 7:06 Inside OpenAI | Logan Kilpatrick (head of developer relations)
Feb 8, 2024 positive
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2029
Future LLMs will automatically expand short user prompts into detailed descriptions
“This will happen with text models. You can imagine a world where you go into ChatGPT and you say, write me a blog post about AI. It automatically will go and be like, let me generate a much higher fidelity description of what this person really wants, which is…”
Logan Kilpatrick Feb 8, 2024 ▶ 21:33 Inside OpenAI | Logan Kilpatrick (head of developer relations)
Feb 8, 2024 positive
Assertion Supported
GPT-4 was OpenAI's first model with reliably predictable capabilities before training
“GPT-IV was the first model that we trained where we could reliably predict the capabilities of that model beforehand. Based on the amount of compute that we were going to put into it, and you could actually, we did like a scientific study to show like, hey, th…”
Logan Kilpatrick Feb 8, 2024 ▶ 48:22 Inside OpenAI | Logan Kilpatrick (head of developer relations)
Feb 8, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Startups building general-purpose AI agents will directly compete with OpenAI
“I talked to a lot of developers who are building like, you know, just general purpose assistance and like general purpose agents and stuff like that. And I think it's cool and it's a good idea. I think like the challenge for them is like, they are going to end…”
Logan Kilpatrick Feb 8, 2024 ▶ 11:27 Inside OpenAI | Logan Kilpatrick (head of developer relations)
Mar 24, 2024 positive
Opinion
Shah: Satya Nadella acted as Krishna during the OpenAI crisis
“For example, let's say Satya during the open AI crisis played Krishna and got things out, but he'll switch back to being Rama and continue to keep scaling it up.”
Kunal Shah Mar 24, 2024 ▶ 18:18 Kunal Shah on winning in India, second-order thinking, the philosophy of startups, and more
Apr 7, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Claire Vo: OpenAI's GPT store lacks monetization solutions for creators
“I think the other thing is there is no solution right now for monetization, you know, knock on wood, open AI, we'll figure it out.”
Claire Vo Apr 7, 2024 ▶ 1:00:08 Bending the universe in your favor | Claire Vo (LaunchDarkly, Color, Optimizely, ChatPRD)
Sep 8, 2024
Assertion Not checkable as stated
LinkedIn Shared Early AI R&D and Prompt Engineering Learnings With OpenAI and Microsoft
“In fact, a lot of things we've learned so much ahead of the market and even shared with OpenAI and shared with Microsoft”
Tomer Cohen Sep 8, 2024 ▶ 46:39 How LinkedIn became interesting: The inside story | Tomer Cohen (CPO at LinkedIn)
Sep 19, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Schwartz: AI Startups Cannot Unseat Google Purely on Search Product Quality
“I don't think there's a chance, and this is the biggest takeaway, I don't think there's a chance that ChatGPT or Perplexity or Claude or any of these other LLM startups, because they're startups now, even, even OpenAI as a startup with Bing's part, with Micros…”
Eli Schwartz Sep 19, 2024 ▶ 1:19:02 Rethinking SEO in the age of AI | Eli Schwartz (SEO advisor, author)
Sep 19, 2024 positive
Opinion
Schwartz: Marketers and SEO practitioners should not worry that AI kills SEO
“I don't think that's at all correct. And I don't think anyone, whether you're doing SEO as your full-time job, whether you're receiving SEO traffic as a part of one of your primary marketing channels, I don't think anybody has to worry about that.”
Eli Schwartz Sep 19, 2024 ▶ 7:35 Rethinking SEO in the age of AI | Eli Schwartz (SEO advisor, author)
Sep 26, 2024 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Yehoshua: ChatGPT user retention is low due to workflow disconnects
“If you look at the stats from ChatGPT, from what I understand, ah, the retention is fairly low. Like people use it, they play with it, and then they don't get back to it because it's not in their workflow, and they have a hard time figuring out what they can a…”
Tamar Yehoshua Sep 26, 2024 ▶ 1:03:59 Lessons in product leadership and AI strategy from Glean, Google, Amazon, and Slack | Tamar Yehoshua
Nov 6, 2024 positive
Insight
Weil: Top AI customers orchestrate workflows across multiple models, not just one
“People maybe don't realize that actually a lot of the most sophisticated customers of ours are doing, and that we're certainly doing internally, is it's not really about one model for any particular thing. You end up putting together sort of workflows and orch…”
Kevin Weil Nov 6, 2024 ▶ 29:30 A conversation with OpenAI's CPO Kevin Weil, Anthropic's CPO Mike Krieger, and Sarah Guo
Nov 6, 2024 bullish
Assertion Supported
Weil: Frontier AI increasingly generates answers that evaluators prefer over humans
“The models are getting to the point where they can often beat humans at certain tasks. Like, people prefer the model's answers to a human's answers, and so if you're humans writing your evals, like, you know, so what does that mean?”
Kevin Weil Nov 6, 2024 ▶ 18:35 A conversation with OpenAI's CPO Kevin Weil, Anthropic's CPO Mike Krieger, and Sarah Guo
Nov 6, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Weil: AI reasoning models are currently only in their GPT-1 phase
“So, it's basically a new way to scale intelligence, and we feel like we're just at the very beginning, you know, we're at the, like, GPT-I phase of this new form of reasoning.”
Kevin Weil Nov 6, 2024 ▶ 31:49 A conversation with OpenAI's CPO Kevin Weil, Anthropic's CPO Mike Krieger, and Sarah Guo
Nov 6, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Weil predicts today's cutting-edge AI will feel like garbage within 12 months
“And, you know, the stuff that's happening today that we're working on, that you guys are working on, it all feels like magic. 12 months from now, we're going to be like, can you believe we use that garbage? Because it's going to, I mean, that's how fast this t…”
Kevin Weil Nov 6, 2024 ▶ 24:17 A conversation with OpenAI's CPO Kevin Weil, Anthropic's CPO Mike Krieger, and Sarah Guo
Nov 6, 2024
Insight
Weil: AI product design fundamentally differs based on model reliability tiers
“You don't know whether it's going to be like, 60% good, or 90% good, or 99% good, and the product that you would build that would make The sense with something that works 60% of the time is super different than 90 or 99% of the time, right?”
Kevin Weil Nov 6, 2024 ▶ 6:55 A conversation with OpenAI's CPO Kevin Weil, Anthropic's CPO Mike Krieger, and Sarah Guo
Nov 6, 2024 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Weil: Enterprise organizations often create thousands of internal custom GPTs
“With OpenAI, we have these custom GPTs that you can make, and organizations make thousands of them often, and it's a way for the power users to make something that makes AI easier and, like, immediately valuable for the people that might not know how to use it…”
Kevin Weil Nov 6, 2024 ▶ 26:43 A conversation with OpenAI's CPO Kevin Weil, Anthropic's CPO Mike Krieger, and Sarah Guo
Nov 6, 2024 positive
Insight
Weil: Current AI models are eval-limited rather than intelligence-limited
“I think there's a very real sense in which models today are not intelligence limited. They're eval limited. They can actually do much more and be much more correct on a wider range of things than they are today, and it's really about sort of teaching them.”
Kevin Weil Nov 6, 2024 ▶ 13:12 A conversation with OpenAI's CPO Kevin Weil, Anthropic's CPO Mike Krieger, and Sarah Guo
Nov 6, 2024
Insight
Weil: AI model behavior and personality are core product responsibilities
“Yeah, model behavior is absolutely a product role. Like, the personality of the model is, is key, and there are interesting questions around how much should it customize versus how much should, you know, OpenAI have one personality, and Claude has some distinc…”
Kevin Weil Nov 6, 2024 ▶ 39:42 A conversation with OpenAI's CPO Kevin Weil, Anthropic's CPO Mike Krieger, and Sarah Guo
Nov 6, 2024 positive
Insight
Weil: AI product development fundamentally differs because capabilities shift every two months
“Normally when you're building product, you're building off of kind of a fixed technology base, right? You know what you have to work with, and you're trying to build the best product you can. Here it's like every two months computers can do something computers…”
Kevin Weil Nov 6, 2024 ▶ 1:46 A conversation with OpenAI's CPO Kevin Weil, Anthropic's CPO Mike Krieger, and Sarah Guo
Nov 6, 2024
Disclosure
Weil: OpenAI runs internal boot camps teaching product managers to write evals
“We set up a boot camp and, like, took every PM through Writing evals, and like, what it was like, difference between good and bad evals, and you know, we're definitely not done there.”
Kevin Weil Nov 6, 2024 ▶ 15:30 A conversation with OpenAI's CPO Kevin Weil, Anthropic's CPO Mike Krieger, and Sarah Guo
Dec 8, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Godin: Claude delivers kindness and humility, while ChatGPT overpromises
“ChatGPT's reputation with me is not good because it regularly over promises and under delivers, and it does it without kindness or humility. Whereas Claude, I don't know how they did it, at least in my experience, brings kindness and humility.”
Seth Godin Dec 8, 2024 ▶ 18:22 Seth Godin's best tactics for building remarkable products, strategies, brands and more
Feb 9, 2025
Insight
Nguyen: Model Training Is More Art Than Science, Debugged Like Software
“Model training is more an art than a science, and in a lot of ways, like, we as, like, model trainers think a lot about, like, data quality. So, like, it's one of the most important things in model training is, like how do you ensure the highest quality data f…”
Karina Nguyen Feb 9, 2025 ▶ 6:36 OpenAI researcher on why soft skills are the future of work | Karina Nguyen
Feb 9, 2025
Disclosure
OpenAI used o1 synthetic data to train Canvas commenting behaviors
“The way we used it is, like, we would use a one model to produce, to, like, simulate, like, use a conversation. Let's say, like, write me a document about XYZ, but then we used a one to, like, produce the document, and then we kind of injected, like, user prom…”
Karina Nguyen Feb 9, 2025 ▶ 17:11 OpenAI researcher on why soft skills are the future of work | Karina Nguyen
Feb 9, 2025 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Nguyen: Extended model reasoning will lead to better AI writing quality
“And actually, like, I'm thinking, like, this new paradigm of, like, the models think more should actually lead to, like, better writing in itself.”
Karina Nguyen Feb 9, 2025 ▶ 48:36 OpenAI researcher on why soft skills are the future of work | Karina Nguyen
Feb 9, 2025
Disclosure
Nguyen: OpenAI introduced 'model designers' to define behavioral evals
“There's also like new role that we have like model designers. To kind of, like, go through some of the user feedback, maybe, or, like, think of, like, various, like, user conversations that should have triggered, like, under this circumstances, it should trigg…”
Karina Nguyen Feb 9, 2025 ▶ 21:09 OpenAI researcher on why soft skills are the future of work | Karina Nguyen
Feb 9, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Nguyen: Computer-use AI agents will learn and replicate individual browsing behaviors
“The computer use agents, like the model operating the desktop, and you can essentially think of like, you know, new kind of like Experience where the model can learn the way you browse. And from that preference, it can just like browse as just like you.”
Karina Nguyen Feb 9, 2025 ▶ 1:02:40 OpenAI researcher on why soft skills are the future of work | Karina Nguyen
Feb 9, 2025
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Canvas was OpenAI's first project uniting research and applied engineering early
“Actually, like, Canvas is, like, one of the, I would say, like, the first project at OpenAI where researchers and applied engineers started working together from the very beginning of the product development cycle.”
Karina Nguyen Feb 9, 2025 ▶ 13:46 OpenAI researcher on why soft skills are the future of work | Karina Nguyen
Feb 9, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Nguyen: OpenAI built Canvas and Tasks features mostly via synthetic data
“The way we made Canvas and tasks and, like, new, like, product features for HTTP was mostly done by synthetic training.”
Karina Nguyen Feb 9, 2025 ▶ 12:27 OpenAI researcher on why soft skills are the future of work | Karina Nguyen
Feb 9, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Nguyen: Anthropic excels at prioritization, while OpenAI takes more product risks
“I would say, like, Antarctic, I learned from Antarctic that, like, They're much better at, like, focusing and, like, prioritization or, like, very, very hard, like, very hardcore prioritization, I guess, and they need to do it. Like, but I think, like, OpenAI …”
Karina Nguyen Feb 9, 2025 ▶ 55:53 OpenAI researcher on why soft skills are the future of work | Karina Nguyen
Feb 9, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
OpenAI Built Tasks in Two Months and Canvas in Four to Five
“For tasks, it took, like, I don't know, like, two months or so to go from, like, zero to one, basically. Oh, wow. For canvases was, like, four or five months, I guess. To go from zero to one.”
Karina Nguyen Feb 9, 2025 ▶ 30:48 OpenAI researcher on why soft skills are the future of work | Karina Nguyen
Feb 9, 2025 positive
Insight
Nguyen: Synthetic Data Outperforms Human Data for AI Product Development
“And the reason why I really love, like, synthetic, like, relying purely on synthetic data instead of, like, collecting Data from humans is because it's, like, much more scalable. It's cheap, less than how, like, you literally sample from the model, and you tea…”
Karina Nguyen Feb 9, 2025 ▶ 31:55 OpenAI researcher on why soft skills are the future of work | Karina Nguyen
Feb 9, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Nguyen: AI is not far from autonomous self-improving product development
“And I don't think, like, we are far away from that kind of, like, self-improvement, models becoming, like, self-improved via, like, then, like, the product development is basically kind of, like, self-improving, like, it's kind of, like, its own, like, organis…”
Karina Nguyen Feb 9, 2025 ▶ 50:47 OpenAI researcher on why soft skills are the future of work | Karina Nguyen
Feb 9, 2025
Insight
Nguyen: Pixel-based perception is much harder to scale than language in AI
“Much of it is, like because right now the models operating on, like, pixels instead of, like, language or whatnot, like, pixels is actually really, really hard for the models because, like, perception or visual perception. I think there's still, like, a lot of…”
Karina Nguyen Feb 9, 2025 ▶ 1:10:12 OpenAI researcher on why soft skills are the future of work | Karina Nguyen
Mar 9, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Osika: Perfect AI software creation and integration will arrive within two years
“The last piece of software, how I see that is that it's almost instant to go from what you want to change in a product or what you, what product you want to build. To having it fully working end to end, integrated with any of your existing systems or integrate…”
Anton Osika Mar 9, 2025 ▶ 36:47 Building Lovable: $10M ARR in 60 days with 15 people | Anton Osika (CEO and co-founder)
Apr 10, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Weil admits OpenAI no longer holds a massive 12-month lead
“It used to be that OpenAI had this, like, massive model lead, you know, 12 months or something ahead of everybody else. That's not true anymore. You know, I like to think we still have a lead. I'd argue that we do, but it's certainly not a massive one.”
Kevin Weil Apr 10, 2025 ▶ 33:28 OpenAI’s CPO on how AI changes must-have skills, moats, coding, startup playbooks, more | Kevin Weil
Apr 10, 2025 positive
Insight
Weil: Model ensembles attacking a problem together yield better thinking
“You get better thinking sometimes out of a group of models that all try and attack the same problem, and then you have a model that's looking at all their outputs, and integrating it, and then giving you a single answer at the end.”
Kevin Weil Apr 10, 2025 ▶ 38:54 OpenAI’s CPO on how AI changes must-have skills, moats, coding, startup playbooks, more | Kevin Weil
Apr 10, 2025 bearish
Insight
Weil: Prompt engineering will become obsolete as AI matures
“I want to kill the idea that you have to be a good prompt engineer. I think if we do our jobs, that stops being true. You know, it's just one of those, like, sharp edges of models that experts can learn, but then you just, over time, you shouldn't need to know…”
Kevin Weil Apr 10, 2025 ▶ 1:27:00 OpenAI’s CPO on how AI changes must-have skills, moats, coding, startup playbooks, more | Kevin Weil
Apr 10, 2025 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Weil: OpenAI image model understands complex multi-image spatial instructions
“The model is, is really capable at emulating style or understanding what, you know, it's very good at instruction following. That's actually something that I think people, I'm starting to see people discover with it, but you can do very complex things. You can…”
Kevin Weil Apr 10, 2025 ▶ 7:30 OpenAI’s CPO on how AI changes must-have skills, moats, coding, startup playbooks, more | Kevin Weil
Apr 10, 2025
Insight
Weil: AI product UX can be designed by modeling human behavior
“One of the things that's been funny for me is the extent to which you can kind of reason when you're trying to figure out how some products should work with AI, you can often, or even why some AI thing happens to be true. You can often reason about it the way …”
Kevin Weil Apr 10, 2025 ▶ 36:15 OpenAI’s CPO on how AI changes must-have skills, moats, coding, startup playbooks, more | Kevin Weil
Apr 10, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Weil: OpenAI aims to release new o-series models every 3-4 months
“And now with this O series of reasoning models, we're moving even faster. We're like every roughly, you know, three months, maybe four months, there's a new O-series model, and each of them is a step up in, in capability, and so the capabilities of these model…”
Kevin Weil Apr 10, 2025 ▶ 1:15:24 OpenAI’s CPO on how AI changes must-have skills, moats, coding, startup playbooks, more | Kevin Weil
Apr 10, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Weil: OpenAI's Chief People Officer vibe-coded an internal company tool
“Our, actually, our chief people officer, Julia, Was telling me the other day, she vibe coded an internal tool that she had at a previous job that she really wanted to have here at open AI. And she opened, I don't know, windsurf or something and vibe coded it.”
Kevin Weil Apr 10, 2025 ▶ 55:09 OpenAI’s CPO on how AI changes must-have skills, moats, coding, startup playbooks, more | Kevin Weil
Apr 10, 2025 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Weil: Future AI will pair broad foundation models with custom evals
“I think the future is really gonna be incredibly smart, broad based models. That are fine tuned and tailored with company specific or use case specific data so that they perform really well on company specific or use case specific things. And you're going to m…”
Kevin Weil Apr 10, 2025 ▶ 24:02 OpenAI’s CPO on how AI changes must-have skills, moats, coding, startup playbooks, more | Kevin Weil
Apr 10, 2025
Insight
Weil: Multi-month product roadmaps in AI are pointless
“So that's, I think, just expecting that you're going to be super agile and that there's no sense writing a three month roadmap, let alone a year long roadmap, because the technology is changing underneath you so quickly.”
Kevin Weil Apr 10, 2025 ▶ 28:13 OpenAI’s CPO on how AI changes must-have skills, moats, coding, startup playbooks, more | Kevin Weil
Apr 10, 2025 neutral
Insight
Weil: Model accuracy levels dictate fundamentally different product designs
“If the model gets it right, 60% of the time, you build a very different product than if the model gets it right, 95% of the time, versus if the model gets it right, 99.5% of the time. And so there's also something that you have to get really into the weeds on …”
Kevin Weil Apr 10, 2025 ▶ 18:17 OpenAI’s CPO on how AI changes must-have skills, moats, coding, startup playbooks, more | Kevin Weil
Apr 10, 2025
Assertion Supported
Weil: 3 million developers currently use OpenAI's API
“We have three million developers using our API.”
Kevin Weil Apr 10, 2025 ▶ 25:31 OpenAI’s CPO on how AI changes must-have skills, moats, coding, startup playbooks, more | Kevin Weil
Apr 10, 2025 positive
Insight
Weil: Product teams should vibe-code interactive prototypes instead of using Figma
“Why shouldn't we be, like, vibe coding demos right, left, and center? Like, instead of showing stuff in, like, Figma, we should be showing prototypes that people are vibe coding, you know, over the course of 30 minutes to illustrate proofs of concept and to ex…”
Kevin Weil Apr 10, 2025 ▶ 54:49 OpenAI’s CPO on how AI changes must-have skills, moats, coding, startup playbooks, more | Kevin Weil
Apr 10, 2025 negative
Disclosure
Weil: OpenAI struggles with junior PMs due to extreme ambiguity
“And we have trouble sometimes with more junior PMs because of this, because it's just not the place where someone is going to come in and say, okay, you know, here's, here's the landscape. Here is your area. I want you to go do this thing. And that's what you …”
Kevin Weil Apr 10, 2025 ▶ 50:19 OpenAI’s CPO on how AI changes must-have skills, moats, coding, startup playbooks, more | Kevin Weil
Apr 10, 2025 neutral
Disclosure
Weil: OpenAI will not build industry-specific vertical AI products
“There are immense opportunities in every industry and every vertical in the world to go build AI based products that improve upon the state of the art. And there's just no way we could ever do that ourselves. We don't want to, we couldn't, if we did want to.”
Kevin Weil Apr 10, 2025 ▶ 26:04 OpenAI’s CPO on how AI changes must-have skills, moats, coding, startup playbooks, more | Kevin Weil
Apr 10, 2025 positive
Opinion
Weil: OpenAI should never become a pure product company
“OpenAI should never be a pure product company. We need to be both a world-class research company and a world-class product company. And the two need to really work together.”
Kevin Weil Apr 10, 2025 ▶ 46:44 OpenAI’s CPO on how AI changes must-have skills, moats, coding, startup playbooks, more | Kevin Weil
Apr 10, 2025
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Weil: OpenAI operates with only about 25 product managers
“Not that many, actually. I don't know. 25. Maybe it's a little more than that”
Kevin Weil Apr 10, 2025 ▶ 48:11 OpenAI’s CPO on how AI changes must-have skills, moats, coding, startup playbooks, more | Kevin Weil
Apr 10, 2025 bullish
Insight
Weil: AI gives computers novel capabilities every two months
“Every two months, computers can do something they've never been able to do before, and you need to completely think differently about what you're doing.”
Kevin Weil Apr 10, 2025 ▶ 17:03 OpenAI’s CPO on how AI changes must-have skills, moats, coding, startup playbooks, more | Kevin Weil
Apr 10, 2025
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Weil: OpenAI manages 400 million weekly users with 30-40 support staff
“With 400 plus weekly 400 plus million weekly active users, we get, you know, a lot of inbound tickets, right? I don't know how many customer support folks we have, but it's not very many. 3040, I'm not sure. Way, way smaller than you would have at any comparab…”
Kevin Weil Apr 10, 2025 ▶ 1:01:32 OpenAI’s CPO on how AI changes must-have skills, moats, coding, startup playbooks, more | Kevin Weil
Apr 10, 2025 bullish
Insight
Weil: OpenAI minimizes scaffolding because rapid advances erase model limits
“We don't spend that much time building scaffolding around the parts that don't match that because our general mindset is in two months, there's going to be a better model and it's going to blow away whatever, you know, the current set of limitations are.”
Kevin Weil Apr 10, 2025 ▶ 31:38 OpenAI’s CPO on how AI changes must-have skills, moats, coding, startup playbooks, more | Kevin Weil
Apr 13, 2025 positive
Insight
Rauch: DeepSeek proved AI thinking token visibility is a killer feature
“So the deep seek Stream the thinking tokens moment was a very big moment for industry, I think, because open AI did have the technology, but they decided that for competitive reasons, which, you know, are, it's a reasonable thing to think, no pun intended. The…”
Guillermo Rauch Apr 13, 2025 ▶ 1:00:36 Everyone’s an engineer now: Inside v0’s mission to create 100 million builders | Guillermo Rauch
May 25, 2025 positive
Disclosure
OpenAI advised enterprise customers to prioritize internal efficiency over product features
“And in fact, even at OpenAI, it's one of the things that we advised most enterprises to invest in first is Their own operational efficiency, rather than just the AI magic dust they could sprinkle on top of their product experience for their customers.”
Krithika Shankarraman May 25, 2025 ▶ 1:05:00 Growth tactics from OpenAI and Stripe’s first marketer | Krithika Shankarraman
May 25, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
OpenAI ChatGPT Enterprise lead volume grew 40x overnight upon launch
“When we turned on the contact sales form for ChatGPT Enterprise, which was one of my first launches at the company, our lead volume, 40 X overnight.”
Krithika Shankarraman May 25, 2025 ▶ 7:56 Growth tactics from OpenAI and Stripe’s first marketer | Krithika Shankarraman
May 25, 2025
Insight
Shankarraman: Product loyalty grows when reality consistently exceeds user expectations
“There's a sense of loyalty that builds up over time when there is a shorter and smaller delta between your expectations and your reality. And where those expectations are exceeded, you, it is accretive to the brand and your loyalty to the product. And where th…”
Krithika Shankarraman May 25, 2025 ▶ 44:20 Growth tactics from OpenAI and Stripe’s first marketer | Krithika Shankarraman
May 25, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Stripe and OpenAI fought off massive inbound demand, unlike Retool
“Retool was very different from both my experiences at Stripe and at OpenAI, because both Stripe and OpenAI, for better or for worse, were inbound companies, right? There was so much latent demand that we were fighting off people breaking down the door, trying …”
Krithika Shankarraman May 25, 2025 ▶ 17:21 Growth tactics from OpenAI and Stripe’s first marketer | Krithika Shankarraman
Jun 22, 2025 neutral
Insight
Deng: AGI requires product builders to channel raw intelligence into value
“AGI is just necessary, but not sufficient. A lot of the value is still gonna require a bunch of hustle from a lot of builders to really turn that new source of energy and channel it into something that we humans want to use that solves some of our problems. An…”
Peter Deng Jun 22, 2025 ▶ 8:14 From ChatGPT to Instagram to Uber: The quiet architect behind the world’s most popular products
Jun 22, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Deng: ChatGPT often just writes and executes Python code internally
“When ChatGPT does something really interesting, I tell people it's oftentimes just writing Python code and interpreting it.”
Peter Deng Jun 22, 2025 ▶ 20:21 From ChatGPT to Instagram to Uber: The quiet architect behind the world’s most popular products
Jun 22, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Deng: ChatGPT improvements required tight product and post-training collaboration
“That's what we did at OpenAI too. Like we were very closely tied to the post trading team. And so it was because of that tight collaboration that you see some of the advances of ChachiBT getting better at so many things.”
Peter Deng Jun 22, 2025 ▶ 36:26 From ChatGPT to Instagram to Uber: The quiet architect behind the world’s most popular products
Jun 22, 2025 positive
Insight
Deng: Teams stay aligned by stating plans, progress, and completion
“So let me take a step back. So one, say what you're going to do. And then in that. Exercise. You're going to be able to calibrate with your manager, again, with anyone, right? What is it that we're going to do? And it's, I think the words are really important …”
Peter Deng Jun 22, 2025 ▶ 1:18:12 From ChatGPT to Instagram to Uber: The quiet architect behind the world’s most popular products
Jun 22, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Deng: Future generations will not need to write code for work
“I don't actually think he's gonna have to code when he grows up. I think that's gonna be a solved problem, but it's a very, very valuable skill because I think learning to program is learning how to think structure in a structured way, right?”
Peter Deng Jun 22, 2025 ▶ 12:55 From ChatGPT to Instagram to Uber: The quiet architect behind the world’s most popular products
Jul 17, 2025 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Shipper: OpenAI benchmarks new models on predicting its internal codebase
“The gold standard for OpenAI for testing how powerful a model is, is they test it on their internal code base. So they say, how good is the new model at predicting what comes next in our internal code base? Cause that's not anywhere out on the internet.”
Dan Shipper Jul 17, 2025 ▶ 22:48 The AI-native startup: 5 products, 7-figure revenue, 100% AI-written code. | Dan Shipper (Every)
Jul 20, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mann: Sam Altman managed OpenAI across safety, research, and startup tribes
“One weird thing about OpenAI is that while I was there, Sam talked about having three tribes that needed to be kept in check with each other, which was the safety tribe, the research tribe, and the startup tribe.”
Ben Mann Jul 20, 2025 ▶ 24:58 Anthropic co-founder: AGI predictions, leaving OpenAI, what keeps him up at night | Ben Mann
Aug 9, 2025
Disclosure
Turley: OpenAI created ChatGPT subscriptions solely to throttle excess demand
“The birth of that was just to turn away demand originally. Like, it was not like, you know, we brainstormed, oh, what is the best monetization model for AI? It was really, what is, what monetization model has, or what mechanism would allow us to turn away peop…”
Nick Turley Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 37:57 Inside ChatGPT: The fastest growing product in history | Nick Turley (OpenAI)
Aug 9, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Turley: GPT-5 dynamically chooses when to reason without manual user prompting
“It thinks too, just like O three did, but you don't have to manually, you know, tell it to do that. It'll just dynamically decide to think when it needs to. And when it doesn't need to think, it just responds instantly.”
Nick Turley Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 8:08 Inside ChatGPT: The fastest growing product in history | Nick Turley (OpenAI)
Aug 9, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Turley: OpenAI does not care how much time users spend on ChatGPT
“You know, we don't care at all how much time you spend on the product. You know, in fact, our incentive is just to solve your problem, and, you know, if you really like the product, you'll subscribe, but, you know, there's, No incentive to keep you in the prod…”
Nick Turley Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 26:48 Inside ChatGPT: The fastest growing product in history | Nick Turley (OpenAI)
Aug 9, 2025
Insight
Turley: AI companies must separate product velocity from rigorous model safety
“I think it's been really important to separate out, you know, the product development velocity, which has to be super high, from, okay, for things like frontier models, there actually needs to be a rigorous process where you red team, you work on the system ca…”
Nick Turley Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 25:32 Inside ChatGPT: The fastest growing product in history | Nick Turley (OpenAI)
Aug 9, 2025
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Turley: OpenAI operates ChatGPT with a remarkably lean team
“So we've always had this tendency to run relatively lean. So it is a small team that is running chat GPT. I take inspiration from WhatsApp where like, you know, it was a very small team running a very global scope product.”
Nick Turley Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 1:05:46 Inside ChatGPT: The fastest growing product in history | Nick Turley (OpenAI)
Aug 9, 2025 bullish
Prediction Held up
Turley: ChatGPT will hit one billion users soon
“We're gonna hit a billion users soon, and you kind of have to begin acting in a way that is appropriate to that scale.”
Nick Turley Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 17:49 Inside ChatGPT: The fastest growing product in history | Nick Turley (OpenAI)
Aug 9, 2025
Assertion Supported
Turley: ChatGPT was the first OpenAI release without a waitlist
“Actually, you know, we were debating waitlist, no waitlist because we really knew we couldn't scale the engineering systems. And, you know, the fact that there was No waitlist, which no open AI release had worked like that before.”
Nick Turley Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 48:00 Inside ChatGPT: The fastest growing product in history | Nick Turley (OpenAI)
Aug 9, 2025
Insight
Turley: There is no distinction between the AI model and the product
“The one thing we've learned with ChatGPT is that there really is no distinction between the model and the product, like the model is the product and therefore you need to iterate on it like a product.”
Nick Turley Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 29:18 Inside ChatGPT: The fastest growing product in history | Nick Turley (OpenAI)
Aug 9, 2025
Insight
AI product builders must ship to learn rather than reasoning upfront
“This is a pattern with the, I think, where, you know, you really have to ship to understand what is even possible and what people want. Rather than being able to reason about that a priori.”
Nick Turley Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 16:29 Inside ChatGPT: The fastest growing product in history | Nick Turley (OpenAI)
Aug 9, 2025
Assertion Supported
Turley: GPT-3.5 was in OpenAI's API for six months before ChatGPT
“The GPT. 3.5 model was in our API for, you know, at least six months prior to that. I think anyone could have built something like this.”
Nick Turley Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 37:19 Inside ChatGPT: The fastest growing product in history | Nick Turley (OpenAI)
Aug 9, 2025
Insight
Turley: Pre-ChatGPT, OpenAI shipped models like hardware instead of software
“Treating the model as a product was not a thing before ChatGPT, because we would ship it more like hardware, where, you know, there'd be a release like GPT-III, and then we would start working on GPT-IV, and these weird giant Big spend R&D projects that would …”
Nick Turley Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 33:01 Inside ChatGPT: The fastest growing product in history | Nick Turley (OpenAI)
Aug 9, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
OpenAI uses automated classifiers to track ChatGPT use cases without reading chats
“We have conversation classifiers that without, you know, us having to look at the conversations, allow us to kind of figure out what are people talking about, what use cases are taking off, et cetera.”
Nick Turley Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 52:46 Inside ChatGPT: The fastest growing product in history | Nick Turley (OpenAI)
Aug 9, 2025
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Turley: OpenAI shipped ChatGPT within 10 days of deciding to build it
“When we decided to do it, you know, we had been prototyping for so long, and I was just like, you know, in 10 days we're going to ship this thing, and, you know, we did, so that was like maybe a moment in time thing where I just really wanted to make sure that…”
Nick Turley Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 21:11 Inside ChatGPT: The fastest growing product in history | Nick Turley (OpenAI)
Aug 9, 2025
Disclosure
Turley: OpenAI initially planned to shut down ChatGPT after holiday testing
“We shipped it right before the holiday thinking we would sort of come back and get the data and then wind it down.”
Nick Turley Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 16:44 Inside ChatGPT: The fastest growing product in history | Nick Turley (OpenAI)
Aug 9, 2025 neutral
Disclosure
Turley: OpenAI's pace leaves no time to track third-party API products
“Sometimes, like, you know, API developers ask me, it's like, hey, are you, like, you know, going to copy all of our products? There is, like, I actually just do not have time to follow up, you know, what's going on outside of OpenAI, because the pace here is, …”
Nick Turley Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 1:31:36 Inside ChatGPT: The fastest growing product in history | Nick Turley (OpenAI)
Aug 9, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Turley: Billion-user ChatGPT will enable new businesses via built-in distribution
“Like, I think there really is a world where, you know, as this thing hits billion user scale, it can get you distribution. It can get you know, started on making something in the same way that people built on the internet. And, you know, there was entirely new…”
Nick Turley Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 1:21:28 Inside ChatGPT: The fastest growing product in history | Nick Turley (OpenAI)
Aug 9, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Turley: ChatGPT user retention has improved over time across cohorts
“And it's been incredible to not just see strong retention numbers, but to see, you know, an improvement in retention over time. Even as our cohorts become, you know less of an early adopter and more, you know, the average person, so.”
Nick Turley Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 27:15 Inside ChatGPT: The fastest growing product in history | Nick Turley (OpenAI)
Aug 9, 2025 neutral
Insight
Turley: Consumer custom GPTs launched before models had sufficient tooling
“They're kind of ahead of their time in the sense that we built that kind of concept before you could really build very differentiated things, at least in the consumer space. You know you're like learning GPT is going to be pretty similar to what the model coul…”
Nick Turley Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 1:20:20 Inside ChatGPT: The fastest growing product in history | Nick Turley (OpenAI)
Aug 9, 2025
Insight
Turley: Traditional PM frameworks fail when applied to raw AI capabilities
“One is sort of working backwards from the model capabilities, and that is much more than science where I think you really need to look at what tech do we have available and what is like the most awesome way to product productize it. And if you apply to some so…”
Nick Turley Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 44:58 Inside ChatGPT: The fastest growing product in history | Nick Turley (OpenAI)
Aug 9, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
OpenAI reaches 5 million ChatGPT business subscribers
“We just hit five million business subscribers up from three, I think a month or two ago.”
Nick Turley Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 43:57 Inside ChatGPT: The fastest growing product in history | Nick Turley (OpenAI)
Aug 9, 2025 positive
Insight
Curiosity matters far more than prior ML experience for AI product hires
“For product and engineering and design people and, you know, those kinds of functions, I actually think that if you are just curious about the stuff works, it doesn't matter at all if you've never done it before. In fact, if you were to filter for people who'v…”
Nick Turley Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 1:27:22 Inside ChatGPT: The fastest growing product in history | Nick Turley (OpenAI)
Aug 9, 2025 positive
Opinion
Turley: GPT-5 is amazing at building front-end applications
“GPT-Five is amazing at making great front end applications.”
Nick Turley Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 35:35 Inside ChatGPT: The fastest growing product in history | Nick Turley (OpenAI)
Aug 9, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Turley: GPT-5 will be free and default, with legacy models for Pro
“Just use the product. You don't even have to pay. Should be your default model starting tomorrow. And just use it and don't think about models anymore. Unless you want to and you're a pro user, in which case you get all the old models, so rest assured.”
Nick Turley Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 1:34:31 Inside ChatGPT: The fastest growing product in history | Nick Turley (OpenAI)
Aug 9, 2025 positive
Opinion
Turley: Big tech avoids sensitive use cases, OpenAI leans into them
“I think that's what most tech companies do when they hit a certain skill. They run away from these use cases. And I think it's a lost opportunity to help people. So we want to run towards these use cases by making the model behavior really, really great.”
Nick Turley Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 1:00:02 Inside ChatGPT: The fastest growing product in history | Nick Turley (OpenAI)
Aug 9, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Turley: GPT-5 improves on sycophancy benchmarks over previous releases
“GPT five is an improvement, which is really exciting for me, but we have more work from there.”
Nick Turley Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 57:48 Inside ChatGPT: The fastest growing product in history | Nick Turley (OpenAI)
Aug 9, 2025
Assertion Not checkable as stated
ChatGPT organically reached 90% of Fortune 500 companies early on
“We were pretty quickly in, you know, organically in, like, 90% of Fortune 500 companies”
Nick Turley Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 42:49 Inside ChatGPT: The fastest growing product in history | Nick Turley (OpenAI)
Aug 9, 2025
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Turley: ChatGPT was renamed from 'Chat with GPT-3.5' the night before launch
“We went from Chat with GPT, 3.5 to ChatGPT the night before,”
Nick Turley Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 36:51 Inside ChatGPT: The fastest growing product in history | Nick Turley (OpenAI)
Aug 9, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Turley: ChatGPT has 700 million weekly active users
“If you're the average ChatGPT user, and we have, you know, seven hundred million of them this week, we you know, you've probably been on GPT-V for, you know, a while.”
Nick Turley Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 5:46 Inside ChatGPT: The fastest growing product in history | Nick Turley (OpenAI)
Aug 9, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Turley: GPT-5 achieves state-of-the-art results on math and reasoning benchmarks
“One way to look at that is academic benchmarks on many of the standard ones whether or not it's math or reasoning or, you know, just raw intelligence, this model is state of the art.”
Nick Turley Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 6:35 Inside ChatGPT: The fastest growing product in history | Nick Turley (OpenAI)
Aug 9, 2025
Assertion Supported
Turley: OpenAI priced ChatGPT at $20 using a four-question Discord survey
“So what I did do is ship a Google form to Discord with like, I think the four questions you're supposed to ask on how to price something. Yeah, exactly. It literally had those four questions, and I remember distinctly, A, you know, I got a price back and that'…”
Nick Turley Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 39:25 Inside ChatGPT: The fastest growing product in history | Nick Turley (OpenAI)
Aug 9, 2025
Insight
Turley: AI features that do not scale with model intelligence should not ship
“Like if, you know, we're shipping a feature and it doesn't get two X better as the model gets two X smarter. It's probably not a feature we should be shipping.”
Nick Turley Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 1:04:37 Inside ChatGPT: The fastest growing product in history | Nick Turley (OpenAI)
Aug 9, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Turley: OpenAI is seeing substantial enterprise adoption of custom GPTs
“Different in the enterprise, by the way, we're seeing a ton of adoption of GPTs there because just every single company has very bespoke business processes and problems, et cetera. And it's a really, really useful tool there. They also have unique data that th…”
Nick Turley Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 1:20:47 Inside ChatGPT: The fastest growing product in history | Nick Turley (OpenAI)
Aug 9, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Turley: OpenAI developer platform has around four million developers
“In fact, it's grown up and now it's the OpenAI platform with, I don't know, four million developers, I think.”
Nick Turley Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 14:45 Inside ChatGPT: The fastest growing product in history | Nick Turley (OpenAI)
Aug 9, 2025 neutral
Insight
Turley: ChatGPT is AI's MS-DOS and 'Windows' is not built yet
“I still feel like ChatGPT feels a little bit like MS-DOS. We haven't built Windows yet, and it will be obvious once we do, but, you know, there, there's something that feels a little bit like, imagine MS-DOS, like, gone viral, and you were just trying to, like…”
Nick Turley Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 50:07 Inside ChatGPT: The fastest growing product in history | Nick Turley (OpenAI)
Aug 17, 2025 bullish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Balfour: OpenAI will launch ChatGPT platform with 10 to 20 preferred partners
“What I would expect to see play out next is that they will They will either launch, they will announce the platform or what they're going to announce with preferred partners, or what they're going to announce versus is basically a set of preferred partners, th…”
Brian Balfour Aug 17, 2025 ▶ 45:57 Why ChatGPT will be the next big growth channel (and how to capitalize on it) | Brian Balfour
Aug 17, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balfour: ChatGPT will be the next major product growth distribution platform
“My prediction of the new distribution platform will be chat GPT. In some ways that people probably already think it's happening in some ways that it won't.”
Brian Balfour Aug 17, 2025 ▶ 11:25 Why ChatGPT will be the next big growth channel (and how to capitalize on it) | Brian Balfour
Aug 17, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balfour: OpenAI is about to launch a ChatGPT third-party platform
“There's going to be what they do with like a chat GPT search experience, but I think the bigger thing will be whatever they do with launching a third party platform on top of chat GPT. There's a bunch of signals that they're about to that they're about to laun…”
Brian Balfour Aug 17, 2025 ▶ 12:08 Why ChatGPT will be the next big growth channel (and how to capitalize on it) | Brian Balfour
Aug 17, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Balfour: AI chat platforms are currently in Step 0 of their lifecycle
“And I think we could all agree that we are in that Mode. You know, right now we've got open AI battling with Claude, battling with Gemini in Google with whatever meta comes out with their new team, you know, so on and so forth. Like, and there's huge amounts o…”
Brian Balfour Aug 17, 2025 ▶ 14:15 Why ChatGPT will be the next big growth channel (and how to capitalize on it) | Brian Balfour
Aug 17, 2025 bullish
Prediction Held up
Balfour: OpenAI job postings signal an imminent third-party agent platform launch
“There's all sorts of signals that They're about to launch a third party platform. They've been hiring for a bunch of roles. I've seen multiple postings on like product manager, engineering roles, all that kind of stuff for, you know, quote unquote agent platfo…”
Brian Balfour Aug 17, 2025 ▶ 33:27 Why ChatGPT will be the next big growth channel (and how to capitalize on it) | Brian Balfour
Aug 31, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Liu: OpenAI launched a ChatGPT Deep Research API costing roughly $1+ per call
“There is now. There is now... It ends up being and I think they only recently exposed it. It ends up being like something on the order of like a dollar plus per research call”
Howie Liu Aug 31, 2025 ▶ 1:02:55 How we restructured Airtable's entire org for AI | Howie Liu (co-founder and CEO)
Sep 11, 2025 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Horowitz estimates OpenAI commands 80% of total AI industry revenue
“Open AI is probably 80% of the revenue in AI or something like that now.”
Ben Horowitz Sep 11, 2025 ▶ 1:09:58 $46B of hard truths: Why founders fail and why you need to run toward fear | Ben Horowitz (a16z)
Nov 30, 2025 neutral
Disclosure
Grosser: Vercel treats OpenAI as enterprise due to top-25 internet traffic
“Great example of this would be open AI. Open AI. I forget these days how many employees it has. Let's say it's 3000. It's probably more than that at this point. But so that's going to put it in the mid market at most companies, but they're a top 25 traffic sit…”
Jeanne DeWitt Grosser Nov 30, 2025 ▶ 1:04:02 What world-class GTM looks like in 2026 | Jeanne DeWitt Grosser (Vercel, Stripe, Google)
Dec 14, 2025 neutral
Insight
Internal dogfooding at AI labs skews product signals for the general market
“It just turns out that this is one of those places where the signal we got from dogfooding is a little bit different from the signal you get from like the general market, because at OpenAI, you know, we train reasoning models all day. And so we're very used to…”
Alexander Embirikos Dec 14, 2025 ▶ 20:40 Inside OpenAI: 2026 is the year of agents, AI’s biggest bottleneck, and why compute isn’t the issue
Dec 14, 2025 positive
Insight
Structuring markdown plans with verifiable steps extends AI agent autonomy
“Like often collaborate with it first to write like a plan on MD, like a markdown file. That's your plan. And once you're happy with that, Then you ask it to go off and do work, and if that plan has verifiable steps, it'll, like, work for much longer.”
Alexander Embirikos Dec 14, 2025 ▶ 36:36 Inside OpenAI: 2026 is the year of agents, AI’s biggest bottleneck, and why compute isn’t the issue
Dec 14, 2025
Insight
AI coding agents must start locally before users delegate asynchronously
“The key unlock is actually first you need to land with users in a way that's, like, much more intuitive and, like, trivial to get value from. So the way that most people discover, like, the vast majority of users discover Codex today is either they download an…”
Alexander Embirikos Dec 14, 2025 ▶ 18:39 Inside OpenAI: 2026 is the year of agents, AI’s biggest bottleneck, and why compute isn’t the issue
Dec 14, 2025 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Codex usage grew 20x since August, serving trillions of weekly tokens
“The last stat we shared there was, like, we were, like, well over 10 X since August. In fact, it's been, like, 20 X since then. Also, the codex models are serving many, many trillions of tokens a week now, and it's basically, like, our most served coding model…”
Alexander Embirikos Dec 14, 2025 ▶ 16:01 Inside OpenAI: 2026 is the year of agents, AI’s biggest bottleneck, and why compute isn’t the issue
Dec 14, 2025 positive
Opinion
Tesla's FSD is a masterclass in human-in-the-loop AI agent design
“I find the Tesla software, like, quite inspiring. In particular, it has, like, the self-driving feature, and, you know, I, I've mentioned a few times, like, today, like, I think it's really interesting to think about how to build, like, mixed initiative softwa…”
Alexander Embirikos Dec 14, 2025 ▶ 1:19:37 Inside OpenAI: 2026 is the year of agents, AI’s biggest bottleneck, and why compute isn’t the issue
Dec 14, 2025
Disclosure
OpenAI data scientists use Codex in Slack to diagnose metric changes
“Data scientists often here are using Codex a ton to just, like, answer questions, like, why do you think this metric moved? What happened? So questions, you know, you get the answer right back in Slack.”
Alexander Embirikos Dec 14, 2025 ▶ 42:08 Inside OpenAI: 2026 is the year of agents, AI’s biggest bottleneck, and why compute isn’t the issue
Dec 14, 2025
Assertion Supported
The Codex brand name was first used for GitHub Copilot's model
“The first time we used the brand codex at OpenAI was actually the model powering GitHub Copilot.”
Alexander Embirikos Dec 14, 2025 ▶ 39:29 Inside OpenAI: 2026 is the year of agents, AI’s biggest bottleneck, and why compute isn’t the issue
Dec 14, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Ubiquitous code generation will increase demand for human software engineering skills
“And as you make code even more ubiquitous, it's actually just going to be used for many more purposes. And so there's just going to be a ton more need for people with this, like humans with this competency.”
Alexander Embirikos Dec 14, 2025 ▶ 33:51 Inside OpenAI: 2026 is the year of agents, AI’s biggest bottleneck, and why compute isn’t the issue
Dec 14, 2025 positive
Insight
The Codex team prioritizes Day 7 retention over power-user edge cases
“One of the things that I'm constantly reminding myself of is that a tool like Codex sort of naturally is a tool that you would, you know, become a power user of. And so we can accidentally spend a lot of our time thinking about features that are like very deep…”
Alexander Embirikos Dec 14, 2025 ▶ 55:51 Inside OpenAI: 2026 is the year of agents, AI’s biggest bottleneck, and why compute isn’t the issue
Dec 14, 2025 positive
Insight
The best way for AI models to use computers is writing code
“It turns out the best way for models to use computers is simply to write code.”
Alexander Embirikos Dec 14, 2025 ▶ 29:03 Inside OpenAI: 2026 is the year of agents, AI’s biggest bottleneck, and why compute isn’t the issue
Dec 14, 2025 positive
Assertion Contradicted
OpenAI's latest model is its first to natively understand PowerShell
“Like, just the model we shipped last week is the first model that natively understands PowerShell.”
Alexander Embirikos Dec 14, 2025 ▶ 50:02 Inside OpenAI: 2026 is the year of agents, AI’s biggest bottleneck, and why compute isn’t the issue
Dec 14, 2025 bullish
Disclosure
Proactive agents are critical to achieving OpenAI's AGI mission
“One of our major goals with Codex is to like get to proactivity. I think this is like critically important to like achieve the mission of OpenAI, which is to deliver the benefits of AGI to all humanity.”
Alexander Embirikos Dec 14, 2025 ▶ 14:02 Inside OpenAI: 2026 is the year of agents, AI’s biggest bottleneck, and why compute isn’t the issue
Dec 14, 2025 positive
Insight
The most effective way to test Codex is on your hardest tasks
“The best way to try codex is to give it your hardest tasks. Which is a little different than some of the other coding agents. Like, you know, some tools you might think, okay, let me like start easy or just like, you know, like vibe code something random and d…”
Alexander Embirikos Dec 14, 2025 ▶ 1:03:12 Inside OpenAI: 2026 is the year of agents, AI’s biggest bottleneck, and why compute isn’t the issue
Dec 14, 2025 neutral
Insight
Human prompt writing and validation are the main limits to AI productivity
“I think that the current limiting factor, I mean, there's many, but I think a current underappreciated limiting factor is like literally human typing speed or human multitasking speed on like writing prompts. And like, you know, you were talking about, it's li…”
Alexander Embirikos Dec 14, 2025 ▶ 1:11:06 Inside OpenAI: 2026 is the year of agents, AI’s biggest bottleneck, and why compute isn’t the issue
Dec 14, 2025 positive
Insight
A dedicated AI browser provides superior context compared to desktop screenshots
“A lot of work is done in the web, and if we could build a browser, then we could be contextual for you, but in a much more first class way. We weren't hacking like other desktop software, which have like very varied support for like what content they're render…”
Alexander Embirikos Dec 14, 2025 ▶ 59:39 Inside OpenAI: 2026 is the year of agents, AI’s biggest bottleneck, and why compute isn’t the issue
Dec 14, 2025 bullish
Insight
Deep customer domain understanding beats raw building skills for AI startups
“If you're starting a new company today, and you have, like, a really good understanding and, like, network of customers that are currently underserved by AI tools, I think you're, like, you're set. Whereas if you're, like, good at building, like, you know, web…”
Alexander Embirikos Dec 14, 2025 ▶ 54:56 Inside OpenAI: 2026 is the year of agents, AI’s biggest bottleneck, and why compute isn’t the issue
Dec 14, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
OpenAI built the Sora Android app in 28 days using Codex
“The Sora Android app, right, like a fully new app, We built it in 18 days. It went from like zero to launch to employees, and then 10 days later, so 28 days total, we went to just like GA, to the public. And that was done just like with the help of Codex.”
Alexander Embirikos Dec 14, 2025 ▶ 47:11 Inside OpenAI: 2026 is the year of agents, AI’s biggest bottleneck, and why compute isn’t the issue
Dec 14, 2025 bullish
Disclosure
OpenAI uses Codex to manage infrastructure and review its own training runs
“Codex writes a lot of the code that helps, like, manage its training runs, the key infrastructure. You know, we move pretty fast, and so we have a Codex code review is, like, catching a lot of mistakes. It's actually caught some, like, pretty interesting confi…”
Alexander Embirikos Dec 14, 2025 ▶ 1:09:12 Inside OpenAI: 2026 is the year of agents, AI’s biggest bottleneck, and why compute isn’t the issue
Jan 1, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: OpenAI leadership says it cannot hire enough enterprise sales reps
“We were with Maggie, who's in the leadership of open AI. She said, they just can't hire enough enterprise reps now.”
Jason Lemkin Jan 1, 2026 ▶ 13:17 We replaced our sales team with 20 AI agents—here’s what happened next | Jason Lemkin (SaaStr)
Jan 11, 2026 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Badam: Every enterprise client at OpenAI found viable AI use cases
“No company at OpenAI we talk to is, has never had been the case that, oh, AI cannot help me in this case. It has always been that, oh, there is this, like, set of things that it can optimize for me, and then let me see how I can adopt it.”
Kiriti Badam Jan 11, 2026 ▶ 24:52 Why most AI products fail: Lessons from 50+ AI deployments at OpenAI, Google & Amazon
Jan 11, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Badam: OpenAI Faced Major Support Ticket Spikes During New Product Launches
“Open AI face to say exact same thing when we were launching products and there was like a huge spike of support volume as like, you know, we launched successful products like image and you know, like GPT five and things like that.”
Kiriti Badam Jan 11, 2026 ▶ 13:46 Why most AI products fail: Lessons from 50+ AI deployments at OpenAI, Google & Amazon
Feb 12, 2026
Assertion Supported
Wu: Every model released in OpenAI products is released in the API
“Every single model we've released in one of our products gets released in the API.”
Sherwin Wu Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 59:44 OpenAI’s head of platform engineering on the next 12-24 months of AI | Sherwin Wu
Feb 12, 2026 neutral
Disclosure
Wu: OpenAI managers use internal ChatGPT for employee performance reviews
“We're doing performance reviews right now, and it's actually really easy to use ChatGPT with internal knowledge, hooked up to GitHub and like our Notion docs and Google docs. To give a, get a really good sense of what this person has done over the last 12, 12 …”
Sherwin Wu Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 21:50 OpenAI’s head of platform engineering on the next 12-24 months of AI | Sherwin Wu
Feb 12, 2026 positive
Insight
Wu: AI tools widen the productivity spread across engineering teams
“Codex really empowers, like, top performers to get a lot, like, to be a lot more productive, and so it really, like, and I think this may be true for AI more broadly, like, across society, which is, like, the people who really lean in, or, like, the people who…”
Sherwin Wu Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 20:15 OpenAI’s head of platform engineering on the next 12-24 months of AI | Sherwin Wu
Feb 12, 2026 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wu: 95% of OpenAI engineers use Codex and 100% of PRs are AI-reviewed
“So, 95% of engineers use Codex. 100% of our PRs are reviewed by Codex daily as well, so basically any code that goes into production that's merged in, Codex kind of has its eyes on and suggests improvements, suggests changes in the PRs.”
Sherwin Wu Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 4:17 OpenAI’s head of platform engineering on the next 12-24 months of AI | Sherwin Wu
Feb 12, 2026 bullish
Disclosure
Wu: OpenAI engineering managers write all their code using Codex
“And so I know for myself and some of the other EMs, Engineering managers at OpenAI. all of our code is written by Codex at this point.”
Sherwin Wu Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 3:43 OpenAI’s head of platform engineering on the next 12-24 months of AI | Sherwin Wu
Feb 12, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wu: The vast majority of code at OpenAI is authored by AI
“Almost every engineer heavily uses Codex in all of their tasks at this point, and so I, you know, if I were to guesstimate, like, the vast majority of code at this point is, It was probably authored by AI.”
Sherwin Wu Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 19:14 OpenAI’s head of platform engineering on the next 12-24 months of AI | Sherwin Wu
Feb 12, 2026
Insight
Wu: AI startups fail from lack of customer resonance, not OpenAI competition
“Every startup that I've seen that is kind of fizzled out is not because open AI or, you know, big lab or Google or something has come to squash them. It's because they built something and it like really didn't resonate with the customers.”
Sherwin Wu Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 58:09 OpenAI’s head of platform engineering on the next 12-24 months of AI | Sherwin Wu
Feb 12, 2026 positive
Disclosure
Wu: OpenAI team is maintaining a 100% Codex-written codebase without manual coding
“So there's a team that that's actually doing an experiment right now with an open AI where they are basically maintaining a 100% code expert and code base. So, you know, like, you know some, you know, you'll have the AI write code, but you'll obviously end up …”
Sherwin Wu Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 13:05 OpenAI’s head of platform engineering on the next 12-24 months of AI | Sherwin Wu
Feb 12, 2026 positive
Insight
Wu: Tech-adjacent non-engineers drive the most enthusiasm for enterprise AI adoption
“The pattern I've seen is it tends to be these like software engineering adjacent, like basically technical people, but are not software engineers. I think those are the ones who get tend to get most excited around this. It's like, you know, maybe the, it's lik…”
Sherwin Wu Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 42:09 OpenAI’s head of platform engineering on the next 12-24 months of AI | Sherwin Wu
Feb 12, 2026 negative
Insight
Wu: Blindly following customer requests leads to AI product local maxima
“Because the field is changing so much at any point in time, you know, a lot of people are kind of in this local, local maximum. And if you just blindly listen to your customers, they'll, they'll be like, yeah, I want a better vector store. Like I want a better…”
Sherwin Wu Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 47:10 OpenAI’s head of platform engineering on the next 12-24 months of AI | Sherwin Wu
Feb 12, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wu: Codex cuts OpenAI code review times from 15 to 3 minutes
“And it makes, you know, code reviews go from a, you know, I don't know, 10:15 minute task to sometimes even just like a two to three minute task, because you have a bunch of suggestions already, already baked in.”
Sherwin Wu Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 16:39 OpenAI’s head of platform engineering on the next 12-24 months of AI | Sherwin Wu
Feb 12, 2026 positive
Insight
Wu: AI startups should build for capabilities that are 80% viable
“My general advice, and I've been giving this to people for a while, and I think it's still true today, is make sure you're building for where the models are going and not where they are today. You know, the, it's clearly a moving target, and I think a lot of t…”
Sherwin Wu Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 49:08 OpenAI’s head of platform engineering on the next 12-24 months of AI | Sherwin Wu
Feb 12, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wu: Responses API is OpenAI's most popular developer endpoint
“The most popular one that we have right now is one called Responses API.”
Sherwin Wu Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 1:05:46 OpenAI’s head of platform engineering on the next 12-24 months of AI | Sherwin Wu
Feb 12, 2026
Disclosure
Wu: OpenAI engineers juggle up to 20 parallel Codex threads simultaneously
“I know many of the engineers on my team basically have like, 10 to 20 threads kind of being pulled on at the same time. Obviously not active running codex jobs. But just a lot of parallel threads. They're checking in on what they're doing. They're steering the…”
Sherwin Wu Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 8:07 OpenAI’s head of platform engineering on the next 12-24 months of AI | Sherwin Wu
Feb 12, 2026 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wu: OpenAI engineers using Codex open 70% more PRs
“So they're actually opening 70% more PRs and than the engineers who aren't using Codex as much and the gap is widening.”
Sherwin Wu Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 4:48 OpenAI’s head of platform engineering on the next 12-24 months of AI | Sherwin Wu
Feb 12, 2026 neutral
Insight
Wu: Organizational barriers are the main bottleneck to AI-assisted shipping
“If people are just like cranking PR after PR, the main thing bottlenecking progress and, you know, shipping something tends to be organizational or like process oriented.”
Sherwin Wu Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 34:38 OpenAI’s head of platform engineering on the next 12-24 months of AI | Sherwin Wu
Apr 2, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Willison: Anthropic and OpenAI focused 2025 training efforts on coding
“Both Anthropic and OpenAI spent the whole of 2025 focusing all of their training efforts on coding.”
Simon Willison Apr 2, 2026 ▶ 4:00 An AI state of the union: We’ve passed the inflection point & dark factories are coming
Apr 2, 2026 positive
Insight
Willison: Coding agents become truly productive only in permissionless 'unsafe' mode
“I think a lot of people who haven't got on board with coding agents yet, haven't tried them in the unsafe mode. They're using coding agent where it's like, oh, can I run this piece of code? Can I edit this file? And that means you have to pay complete attentio…”
Simon Willison Apr 2, 2026 ▶ 49:45 An AI state of the union: We’ve passed the inflection point & dark factories are coming
Apr 2, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Willison: OpenAI and Anthropic maintain private, restricted security models
“Both OpenAI and Anthropic have specialist security models That they will not release to the general public because they can be used to break into websites. So they have like invite only, like registered security researchers can apply for access and they've bee…”
Simon Willison Apr 2, 2026 ▶ 19:24 An AI state of the union: We’ve passed the inflection point & dark factories are coming
Apr 2, 2026 neutral
Opinion
Willison: OpenAI and Anthropic didn't build OpenClaw due to security risks
“The reason OpenClaw took off is Anthropic and OpenAI could have built this and they didn't because they didn't know how to build it securely. If you're an independent third party, you don't have that restriction. You can just Build something and put it out the…”
Simon Willison Apr 2, 2026 ▶ 1:30:03 An AI state of the union: We’ve passed the inflection point & dark factories are coming
May 2, 2026 positive
Opinion
Schoening: Dario Amodei proved his OpenAI success wasn't luck at Anthropic
“Dario is that she wasn't, oh, he wasn't just lucky once at OpenAI. He did the same thing twice and it was successful twice.”
Max Schoening May 2, 2026 ▶ 1:04:53 AI era skills: Why cultivating agency matters more than job titles | Max Schoening (Notion)
May 17, 2026 negative
Opinion
Kalinowski: OpenAI lacked proper governance around its Department of Defense deal
“And I feel that what happened with the decision-making, the speed of the decision-making, the governance, and the lack of defined guardrails around the announcement of the Department of War deal is not how I thought it should have been done.”
Caitlin Kalinowski May 17, 2026 ▶ 1:16:16 Why the next AI boom is physical AI | Caitlin Kalinowski (ex-OpenAI, Meta, Apple)
May 24, 2026 positive
Opinion
Shipper: OpenAI was behind on desktop coding agents but has surpassed Anthropic
“OpenAI for a while was, I, in my opinion, like, very, very behind on this, and then in my opinion has surpassed them recently.”
Dan Shipper May 24, 2026 ▶ 18:55 AI predictions: Job markets, Codex beats Claude, and the death of org charts | Dan Shipper
May 24, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Shipper: Cursor's cloud implementation is more advanced than OpenAI's or Anthropic's
“Like, I think that Cursor's cloud implementation is better than either OpenAI or Anthropix and is more advanced.”
Dan Shipper May 24, 2026 ▶ 26:02 AI predictions: Job markets, Codex beats Claude, and the death of org charts | Dan Shipper
May 31, 2026 neutral
Insight
Evans: Picking AI winners today is like predicting Excite versus Yahoo
“And so then you can kind of get into calling those races where, again, it's like being in 1997 and saying, well, is it going to be Excite or Yahoo? And the answer was no, generally.”
Benedict Evans May 31, 2026 ▶ 4:35 The most rational take on AI you’ll hear this year
Jun 14, 2026 neutral
Opinion
Pincus: Major LLMs differentiate on coding, not at the consumer level
“They're differentiating themselves right now on coding and there's real value and they're, that's an amazing business, but they're not differentiating themselves very much at the consumer level.”
Mark Pincus Jun 14, 2026 ▶ 1:14:38 The hidden pattern behind successful products | Mark Pincus (FarmVille, Words with Friends, & more)
Jun 28, 2026 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ambrosino: OpenAI Codex independently wrote a Premiere Pro extension to edit videos
“Codex is not a video editor per se, right? It doesn't have any of that UI in it. But it was able to understand that he used Premiere Pro. It could do some edits by editing the files that were backing what was on screen in Premiere Pro, but it couldn't do every…”
Andrew Ambrosino Jun 28, 2026 ▶ 57:51 Why OpenAI is merging Codex and ChatGPT and the future of knowledge work | Andrew Ambrosino
Jun 28, 2026 neutral
Insight
Ambrosino: AI labs prioritized coding models because code directly accelerates AI research
“I also think that the labs historically invest in making their models good at things that accelerates AI research. And that in the era, the early era of coding models is very clear that the model being able to write correct code. Would accelerate research. In …”
Andrew Ambrosino Jun 28, 2026 ▶ 13:15 Why OpenAI is merging Codex and ChatGPT and the future of knowledge work | Andrew Ambrosino
Jun 28, 2026 positive
Disclosure
Ambrosino: 100% of current OpenAI product code is written by AI
“Cause if you're using the goalposts from last year, it's like, well, a hundred percent of our product right now is AI written code.”
Andrew Ambrosino Jun 28, 2026 ▶ 40:19 Why OpenAI is merging Codex and ChatGPT and the future of knowledge work | Andrew Ambrosino
Jun 28, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ambrosino: OpenAI non-engineers adopted Codex despite its developer-hostile interface
“We have people from marketing, from comms, from finance, from legal, from basically every discipline who are using this codex app, even though it is actively hostile to these people, right?”
Andrew Ambrosino Jun 28, 2026 ▶ 53:25 Why OpenAI is merging Codex and ChatGPT and the future of knowledge work | Andrew Ambrosino
Jun 28, 2026 positive
Insight
Ambrosino: AI apps must build native memory instead of user mind palaces
“And I think memory is sort of in the shape where we've had a lot of people and a lot of people at other companies too are like, well, I set up an obsidian base or a notion area and I tell it how to basically build my mind palace and how to put, it's like, eh, …”
Andrew Ambrosino Jun 28, 2026 ▶ 48:23 Why OpenAI is merging Codex and ChatGPT and the future of knowledge work | Andrew Ambrosino
Jun 28, 2026 positive
Disclosure
Ambrosino: OpenAI integrates Codex with existing tools instead of replacing them
“We're trying to do two things at once with Codex and with now with ChatGPT. One is how can we seamlessly interact with these tools that you're already using and say, like, we don't need to build a better video editor for you. Right. But like Codex and ChatGPT …”
Andrew Ambrosino Jun 28, 2026 ▶ 58:34 Why OpenAI is merging Codex and ChatGPT and the future of knowledge work | Andrew Ambrosino
Jun 28, 2026 bearish
What-if
Ambrosino: OpenAI Codex would have failed if released three months earlier
“I like, I am very confident that the codex app that we released in February, if that had been ready. In November, it would have absolutely failed in the market. And the only difference was the models between November and February.”
Andrew Ambrosino Jun 28, 2026 ▶ 33:33 Why OpenAI is merging Codex and ChatGPT and the future of knowledge work | Andrew Ambrosino
Jun 28, 2026 neutral
Insight
Ambrosino: High-fidelity prototypes no longer signal validated assumptions in AI era
“The medium implied it had baked in a lot of signal around where in the process something was. So if you're seeing something that feels like the app in production, That means that it's late in the process, that assumptions have been de-risped, that, you know, d…”
Andrew Ambrosino Jun 28, 2026 ▶ 9:05 Why OpenAI is merging Codex and ChatGPT and the future of knowledge work | Andrew Ambrosino
Jun 28, 2026 neutral
Insight
Ambrosino: Use documents for product clarity and prototypes for interaction testing
“If implementation is abundant. Then it's really important to pick the right format for the point you're trying to make. If that point is product clarity around a vague area, then it might actually be a document. If what you're trying to do is get something in …”
Andrew Ambrosino Jun 28, 2026 ▶ 7:56 Why OpenAI is merging Codex and ChatGPT and the future of knowledge work | Andrew Ambrosino
Jun 28, 2026
Disclosure
Ambrosino: OpenAI Codex core team has double-digit engineers and few PMs
“So we got a team double digits of engineers. Probably half that on the design side. You know, a few product people”
Andrew Ambrosino Jun 28, 2026 ▶ 28:07 Why OpenAI is merging Codex and ChatGPT and the future of knowledge work | Andrew Ambrosino
Jun 28, 2026
Insight
Ambrosino: AI makes taste and curation the expensive bottlenecks in product development
“The implementation is actually not the expensive part anymore. It's dare I say taste. But it's the curation process. It's like of those 90 attempts, like what's good about these, what should we fold into other aspects of this, right? How should we frame this? …”
Andrew Ambrosino Jun 28, 2026 ▶ 5:02 Why OpenAI is merging Codex and ChatGPT and the future of knowledge work | Andrew Ambrosino
Jun 28, 2026 positive
Disclosure
Ambrosino: OpenAI maintains a simplified 'baby codex' codebase to prototype faster
“Like we have baby codex, right? A dramatically simplified code base that approximates all of the interactions of the production app. And therefore is a lot quicker to vibe code over, right?”
Andrew Ambrosino Jun 28, 2026 ▶ 20:25 Why OpenAI is merging Codex and ChatGPT and the future of knowledge work | Andrew Ambrosino
Jun 28, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Ambrosino: OpenAI Codex added computer use and artifact creation in May
“There was a release or a series of releases in May-ish that introduced the in-app browser computer use and artifact creation to the codex app.”
Andrew Ambrosino Jun 28, 2026 ▶ 43:41 Why OpenAI is merging Codex and ChatGPT and the future of knowledge work | Andrew Ambrosino
Jun 28, 2026 neutral
Insight
Ambrosino: Any precision in a 9-month AI roadmap is false precision
“The basic just is the shorter term something is the more detail it needs. And then it's not that we don't plan for nine months out. It's that that just has to stay very hazy because any amount of precision that you add to a nine month plan right now is false p…”
Andrew Ambrosino Jun 28, 2026 ▶ 32:07 Why OpenAI is merging Codex and ChatGPT and the future of knowledge work | Andrew Ambrosino
Jun 28, 2026 neutral
Opinion
Ambrosino: OpenAI sees role overlap rather than total existential role collapse
“There's been a lot written about role collapse, existential role collapse. There are no roles anymore. We haven't seen that. We've, we have seen more role collapse in the Codex org than I think other parts of the company and other parts of the economy.”
Andrew Ambrosino Jun 28, 2026 ▶ 21:39 Why OpenAI is merging Codex and ChatGPT and the future of knowledge work | Andrew Ambrosino
Jun 28, 2026 positive
Opinion
Ambrosino: PRDs are not dead despite claims from product leaders
“Like you've seen many product leaders say PRDs are dead. And I actually don't believe this at all.”
Andrew Ambrosino Jun 28, 2026 ▶ 7:11 Why OpenAI is merging Codex and ChatGPT and the future of knowledge work | Andrew Ambrosino
Jun 28, 2026 positive
Disclosure
Ambrosino: OpenAI runs large team sizes composed mostly of ICs
“At OpenAI, we let teams get very large. So we haven't said, Hey, there's no management, but like the teams are quite large, right? It's mostly ICs.”
Andrew Ambrosino Jun 28, 2026 ▶ 28:38 Why OpenAI is merging Codex and ChatGPT and the future of knowledge work | Andrew Ambrosino
Jun 28, 2026 positive
Disclosure
Ambrosino: Codex Team Deliberately Dogfoods Suboptimal Workflows to Fix the App
“There is a desire among all of us to try to do as much as possible in the app, even when it's not the best tool so that it can become the best tool. And so a lot of design we all work on by using the app and say, okay, what's broken about this? This is a whole…”
Andrew Ambrosino Jun 28, 2026 ▶ 23:02 Why OpenAI is merging Codex and ChatGPT and the future of knowledge work | Andrew Ambrosino
Jun 28, 2026 positive
Disclosure
Ambrosino: OpenAI's Codex team started in November and now uses the app for everything
“We started the Codex app in November and we weren't using it full time. Now we use it for everything.”
Andrew Ambrosino Jun 28, 2026 ▶ 15:54 Why OpenAI is merging Codex and ChatGPT and the future of knowledge work | Andrew Ambrosino
Aug 16, 2026 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Silber: Human design will become more important as software creation is commoditized
“I think that as more and more software is made, more and more products are made, I think that the, I do think that the human element of design is going to really Be, start to become more and more important. It's always been the case that I think that, you know…”
Ian Silber Aug 16, 2026 ▶ 14:53 Chatbots are not the final interface: OpenAI’s Head of Design on what’s next | Ian Silber
Aug 16, 2026 neutral
Opinion
Silber: Instagram's slower product change cycle would not work at OpenAI
“Like we spent more time at Instagram, we definitely moved slower. And I would say that we changed the product less and that actually worked really well for most stages of Instagram. But I don't think that that would work in, in the current stage of where we're…”
Ian Silber Aug 16, 2026 ▶ 1:08:37 Chatbots are not the final interface: OpenAI’s Head of Design on what’s next | Ian Silber
Aug 16, 2026 positive
Disclosure
Silber: OpenAI designers use voice mode and computer-use tools internally
“Now it's like become, it's, it literally has become part of the process of how we design. We use both of those tools to build software.”
Ian Silber Aug 16, 2026 ▶ 13:24 Chatbots are not the final interface: OpenAI’s Head of Design on what’s next | Ian Silber
Aug 16, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Silber: Future AI interfaces will evolve specialized layouts based on user profession
“And I think that's where the UI is going to start to really continue to evolve, is how do we make, if you're If you come at this, and you're a designer, maybe chat should actually really look differently look different, or have different affordances. Or you're…”
Ian Silber Aug 16, 2026 ▶ 45:34 Chatbots are not the final interface: OpenAI’s Head of Design on what’s next | Ian Silber
Aug 16, 2026
Disclosure
Silber: OpenAI is prototyping ways to deeply embed ChatGPT into personal lives
“You know, like we're thinking a lot about how we should evolve. Sort of really think about ChatGPT becoming like deeply embedded in a per, like your personal life and how, how should the app feel? That's something that we're not going to necessarily design and…”
Ian Silber Aug 16, 2026 ▶ 35:53 Chatbots are not the final interface: OpenAI’s Head of Design on what’s next | Ian Silber
Aug 16, 2026 bullish
Disclosure
Silber: OpenAI aims to build a single universal input interface
“When we think of the super app, I think eventually we really think of the idea of, especially for our broad consumer base, we do think that there should be sort of this one universal input that you can ask that Knows when it needs to answer, like, really quick…”
Ian Silber Aug 16, 2026 ▶ 47:45 Chatbots are not the final interface: OpenAI’s Head of Design on what’s next | Ian Silber
Aug 16, 2026
Insight
Silber: AI designers shouldn't be precious until technology hardens
“I think the biggest thing is like embracing that the technology might change in like a month or, you know, and maybe a certain interaction or setting or whatever that you needed Doesn't need to exist, or now a new one does need to exist, or a new capability is…”
Ian Silber Aug 16, 2026 ▶ 35:04 Chatbots are not the final interface: OpenAI’s Head of Design on what’s next | Ian Silber
Aug 16, 2026 positive
Disclosure
Silber: OpenAI seeks designers without AI backgrounds who are curious
“And as designers, I think that, you know, you come here, we look for people that are, don't have a background in AI, but are, like, really curious about the tools and how it can work.”
Ian Silber Aug 16, 2026 ▶ 6:30 Chatbots are not the final interface: OpenAI’s Head of Design on what’s next | Ian Silber
Aug 16, 2026 positive
Insight
Silber: Product teams still need dedicated PM, design, and engineering specialists
“I do still think that, and maybe this is thinking about it from like a slightly larger company perspective, but I think you do still need people that have certain responsibilities, right? Because if you have one person that's expected to design, to rally a tea…”
Ian Silber Aug 16, 2026 ▶ 19:46 Chatbots are not the final interface: OpenAI’s Head of Design on what’s next | Ian Silber
Aug 16, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Silber: Proactivity and external context will transform ChatGPT user interaction
“I think proactivity is a big untapped kind of part of the experience that we're really excited to think about. You know, we're starting to see this with ChatGPD work now where it actually has pretty good suggestions based on, you know, your calendar or your Sl…”
Ian Silber Aug 16, 2026 ▶ 46:40 Chatbots are not the final interface: OpenAI’s Head of Design on what’s next | Ian Silber
Aug 16, 2026 neutral
Insight
Silber: Most users extract only a sliver of AI model value
“Generally what we've seen is that we believe in this idea of this sort of capability overhang where the product you know, like vast majority of the people are getting a sliver of the true value that they could out of the bottle.”
Ian Silber Aug 16, 2026 ▶ 39:46 Chatbots are not the final interface: OpenAI’s Head of Design on what’s next | Ian Silber
Aug 16, 2026 positive
Insight
Silber: AI interfaces must eliminate mode switching to reach billions
“And eventually what we want, what we know, and we think about this a lot in design is like, it will true, like, Things will truly become like for billions of users when they don't have to like think about a switch or a mode or anything like that. And so we kno…”
Ian Silber Aug 16, 2026 ▶ 40:56 Chatbots are not the final interface: OpenAI’s Head of Design on what’s next | Ian Silber
Aug 16, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Silber: OpenAI engineers see 10x-100x productivity gains while designers have not
“One of the big things that came up was, you know, we see that You know, engineers have 10 or sometimes like hundred extra productivity. But our design team hasn't, right? Because the design process still takes time.”
Ian Silber Aug 16, 2026 ▶ 4:41 Chatbots are not the final interface: OpenAI’s Head of Design on what’s next | Ian Silber
Aug 30, 2026
Insight
Seshan: Knowledge work AI requires showing intermediate citations and in-progress work
“A lot of work that we have done and have to continue to do is continue to adapt the product to knowledge work, which means way more focus on Making ChatGPT your collaborator, allowing you to see all the in-progress work, see its citations and inputs, help you …”
Tara Seshan Aug 30, 2026 ▶ 1:05:53 AI’s third era: the rise of persistent AI coworkers | Tara Seshan (OpenAI’s product lead)
Aug 30, 2026
Insight
Seshan: Great collaborators prefer rough drafts over fully polished documents
“Very few great people want to interact with like a perfectly polished, finished idea, like a perfectly polished idea. Their new ideas just like bounce off of it versus something that has more crags and more rough edges that they too can polish with you togethe…”
Tara Seshan Aug 30, 2026 ▶ 57:45 AI’s third era: the rise of persistent AI coworkers | Tara Seshan (OpenAI’s product lead)
Aug 30, 2026
Disclosure
Seshan: ChatGPT Work mode brings agents to one billion users
“One of the goals of launching work in ChatGPT web and launching it in the desktop app and bringing these things together was to look at those billion people who are using ChatGPT and bring them more and more of the agent's power.”
Tara Seshan Aug 30, 2026 ▶ 34:31 AI’s third era: the rise of persistent AI coworkers | Tara Seshan (OpenAI’s product lead)
Aug 30, 2026
Disclosure
Seshan: Meeting prep time should match total collective attendee time
“I have this like personal belief that if I'm going to make someone read my document, I have to at least read it first that number of times. Or I think about this in meetings, too, that if I'm gonna call a meeting with a set of people, I need to have prepped th…”
Tara Seshan Aug 30, 2026 ▶ 58:47 AI’s third era: the rise of persistent AI coworkers | Tara Seshan (OpenAI’s product lead)
Aug 30, 2026 positive
Disclosure
Seshan: Prompt-built web apps replace docs and sheets in PM workflows
“The easy reach of building a site all the time has changed what my day-to-day looks like, which often in previous worlds used to look like creating lots of artifacts, like dachshunds, cheats, and whatever it might be. Now I just make sites all the time.”
Tara Seshan Aug 30, 2026 ▶ 51:00 AI’s third era: the rise of persistent AI coworkers | Tara Seshan (OpenAI’s product lead)
Aug 30, 2026
Assertion Supported
Seshan: ChatGPT Work mode runs on Codex under the hood
“In work mode, that's where under the covers, this is codex. We've removed some of like the coding UI, like you don't, you're not going to see a work tree pop up all of a sudden in, in work mode, but it is the same power to get things done”
Tara Seshan Aug 30, 2026 ▶ 31:14 AI’s third era: the rise of persistent AI coworkers | Tara Seshan (OpenAI’s product lead)
Aug 30, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Seshan: Codex development process remains unchanged despite shifting market perception
“And actually with the Codex app the team who initially got it up and running and we're working on it we're super, again, user focused, tight iteration loop, really dog food at the thing, like mainline to the app as much as possible to get get everything right …”
Tara Seshan Aug 30, 2026 ▶ 40:06 AI’s third era: the rise of persistent AI coworkers | Tara Seshan (OpenAI’s product lead)
Aug 30, 2026 positive
Disclosure
Seshan: OpenAI's goal is eliminating manual model toggles in ChatGPT
“Our north star here is that users do not need to make decisions between picking between all these different options. Ideally, there is no toggle here that you go to the box, you type in your tasks. Like I would like to build a really awesome app that I don't k…”
Tara Seshan Aug 30, 2026 ▶ 29:50 AI’s third era: the rise of persistent AI coworkers | Tara Seshan (OpenAI’s product lead)
Aug 30, 2026 positive
Insight
Seshan: Top AI users expand capability scope rather than automate tasks
“I think the people that we see who are most effective at using AI tools don't simply use it to automate rote tasks, but use it to expand the set of things that they are capable of doing.”
Tara Seshan Aug 30, 2026 ▶ 20:42 AI’s third era: the rise of persistent AI coworkers | Tara Seshan (OpenAI’s product lead)
Aug 30, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Seshan: Ari Weinstein leads computer use initiatives at OpenAI
“Ari leads a lot of our computer use stuff at OpenAI and he's like shipped a whole bunch of great Things for computer use”
Tara Seshan Aug 30, 2026 ▶ 1:17:22 AI’s third era: the rise of persistent AI coworkers | Tara Seshan (OpenAI’s product lead)
Aug 30, 2026 positive
Insight
Seshan: Starting and finishing writing yourself prevents cognitive deterioration from AI
“Start yourself and yourself with a piece of writing and that doesn't deteriorate your thinking.”
Tara Seshan Aug 30, 2026 ▶ 1:00:09 AI’s third era: the rise of persistent AI coworkers | Tara Seshan (OpenAI’s product lead)
Aug 30, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Seshan: ChatGPT Work executes tasks in the cloud while offline
“Even more transformatively, go try it on mobile, then take like a long subway ride or something like that, or a muni ride. And when you pop out after having no service, the thing is done for you. That's the part that feels super duper magical. You're not like …”
Tara Seshan Aug 30, 2026 ▶ 1:20:09 AI’s third era: the rise of persistent AI coworkers | Tara Seshan (OpenAI’s product lead)
Aug 30, 2026
Insight
Seshan: AI products fail unless built for models 2-3 months out
“You fail if you build for where the models are now. You fail if you build for where you think the models will be in a year. Like, both outcomes are equally wrong, and I'm sure many people have talked about this, but both outcomes are really equally wrong. If y…”
Tara Seshan Aug 30, 2026 ▶ 27:27 AI’s third era: the rise of persistent AI coworkers | Tara Seshan (OpenAI’s product lead)
Aug 30, 2026
Insight
Seshan: Empirical experimentation matters far more than theoretical strategy in AI
“And so actually being prolific and being more like empirical is way more important than being like maybe more academic or theoretical.”
Tara Seshan Aug 30, 2026 ▶ 7:49 AI’s third era: the rise of persistent AI coworkers | Tara Seshan (OpenAI’s product lead)
Aug 30, 2026 positive
Insight
Seshan: OpenAI operates with extremely limited top-down management
“OpenAI is actually founders-led which is that everyone inside the company, especially in their area, is in essence kind of a founder to some extent. The level of like top-down direction at OpenAI is extremely limited relative to places I've worked for prior.”
Tara Seshan Aug 30, 2026 ▶ 3:23 AI’s third era: the rise of persistent AI coworkers | Tara Seshan (OpenAI’s product lead)
Aug 30, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Seshan: OpenAI ships internal developments to users faster than peers
“So much of what OpenAI does immediately becomes something that users can touch and feel in the product. And that cycle is faster than anywhere else I've seen.”
Tara Seshan Aug 30, 2026 ▶ 5:17 AI’s third era: the rise of persistent AI coworkers | Tara Seshan (OpenAI’s product lead)
Aug 30, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Seshan: AI agents will evolve into persistent coworkers needing periodic syncs
“People are increasingly thinking about agents that are persistent, that feel like teammates, that feel like coworkers. Where you can work with them the way I might work with someone on my team, which is they do a whole bunch of work. I provide input and then t…”
Tara Seshan Aug 30, 2026 ▶ 16:26 AI’s third era: the rise of persistent AI coworkers | Tara Seshan (OpenAI’s product lead)
Aug 30, 2026 negative
Insight
Seshan: Long docs no longer signal rigor; prototypes and mocks win
“A long dock is not a signal that you thought through something because you can easily produce a long dock That indicates that you haven't, and so actually the point, maybe one of the biggest changes I've experienced personally in my day-to-day, which has been …”
Tara Seshan Aug 30, 2026 ▶ 56:01 AI’s third era: the rise of persistent AI coworkers | Tara Seshan (OpenAI’s product lead)
Sep 6, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Industry trends disprove the single-company AI frontier monopoly thesis
“Despite the, like the sort of scary concept of this, like, you know, supremely intelligent model, that's totally proprietary to one company. The, so far the kind of industry trends haven't played that way at all.”
Anish Acharya Sep 6, 2026 ▶ 44:30 Why companies are becoming a series of loops | Anish Acharya (a16z)
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