Insight
Willison: GPT-5.1 and Claude Opus 4.5 marked an inflection point for coding agents
“In November, we had what I call the inflection point where GPT, 5.1 and Claude Opus 4.5 came along and they were both just, they were incrementally better than the previous models, but in a way that crossed a threshold where previously, if you had these coding…”
Insight
Willison: Code is easier for AI agents because it is verifiably right or wrong
“Like code is easier than almost every other problem that you pose these agents because code is obviously right or wrong. Like it produces code. You run the code. Either it works or it doesn't work. There might be a few subtle hidden hidden bugs, but generally …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Willison: Large-scale agentic engineering will always require deep developer expertise
“The art of having them help you build software, you could deploy to a million people. That's not, that's never going to be easy. That's never going to be trivial. That's always going to require a great deal of depth of experience in what software and how softw…”
Assertion Supported
Willison: StrongDM implemented a policy where engineers never read code
“The next rule though is nobody reads the code and this is the thing which StrongDM started doing back in, I think it was August last year. They said, okay, we're not going to read the code.”
Opinion
Willison: AI agents have become credible security researchers in recent months
“At the same time, the agents are getting really good at security penetration testing now. And this is a new thing. I think in the past, again, in the past sort of three to six months, they've started being credible as security researchers, which is sending sho…”
Opinion
Willison: Mid-career software engineers face the greatest AI displacement risk
“The problem is the people in the middle. Like if you're mid career, if you haven't made it to sort of super senior engineer yet, but you're not sort of new either. That's the group, which ThoughtWorks resolved work probably in the most trouble right now.”
Opinion
Willison: AI can never have true agency without human motivations
“I think agents have no agency at all. Like I would argue that the one thing AI can never have is agency because it doesn't have human motivations. Sure. You can tell it make more money or whatever, but it's never going to be able to decide on its, like what ma…”
Insight
Willison: AI broke tests and documentation as quality signals
“Like it used to be, if you looked at software and it had high quality tests and documentation and everything, it meant it was good. And now that signal is gone.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Willison: AI-written code will become common for engineers by end of 2026
“I expect by the end of this year, it will not be uncommon to have an engineer say that almost all of that code is written by AI.”
Insight
Willison: Coding agents become truly productive only in permissionless 'unsafe' mode
“I think a lot of people who haven't got on board with coding agents yet, haven't tried them in the unsafe mode. They're using coding agent where it's like, oh, can I run this piece of code? Can I edit this file? And that means you have to pay complete attentio…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Willison: Pelican SVG quality strongly correlates with general LLM capability
“There appears to be a very strong correlation between how good their drawing of a pelican riding a bicycle is and how good they are at everything else. And nobody can explain to me why that is. But as I started looking at these things, I realized, wow, The bet…”
Insight
Willison: AI coding agents make verbose, extensive test suites economical
“If you look at a repo and there's huge amounts of tests that aren't really doing anything interesting, that's really expensive because now when you change the code, you've got to update a thousand lines of tests and all of that.
It turns out I don't care anymo…”
Insight
Willison: LLMs fundamentally cannot separate trusted instructions from untrusted user text
“Agents fundamentally, like LLMs, can't tell the difference between texts that you give them and texts that you copy and paste in from other people. They're all the same thing. So instructions in that input text can always override the earlier instructions.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Willison: AI will eventually suffer a catastrophic Challenger-style security disaster
“So my prediction is that we're going to see a challenging disaster. Like at some point, this is going to catch up with us and it's going to be Very, very, very bad, and that will hopefully help us start trying to figure out how not to do this. At the same time…”
Opinion
Willison: OpenAI and Anthropic didn't build OpenClaw due to security risks
“The reason OpenClaw took off is Anthropic and OpenAI could have built this and they didn't because they didn't know how to build it securely. If you're an independent third party, you don't have that restriction. You can just Build something and put it out the…”
Insight
Willison: Vibe coding without reviewing code is irresponsible for multi-user software
“If you're vibe coding something for yourself, where the only person who gets hurt, if it has bugs, is you go wild. That's completely fine. The moment you did your vibe coding code for other people to use where your bugs might actually harm somebody else. That'…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Willison: StrongDM spent $10K daily on tokens simulating software testers
“Like they were spending 10,000 dollars a day on tokens, I think, simulating all of these end users. I believe so. But it meant that their software was being very robustly tested in all of these different ways.”
Assertion Supported
Willison: StrongDM used coding agents to simulate Slack, Jira, and Okta APIs
“So what they did is they built their own simulation of Slack and Jira and Okta and all of this software they were integrating with. And the way they did that is they basically took the API documentation for the public APIs for Slack and the client libraries, t…”
Assertion Supported
Willison: OpenAI and Anthropic maintain private, restricted security models
“Both OpenAI and Anthropic have specialist security models That they will not release to the general public because they can be used to break into websites. So they have like invite only, like registered security researchers can apply for access and they've bee…”
Opinion
Willison: Simulated AI user testing cannot match real human usability feedback
“I don't think that's credible. I don't think you're going to get as good results from ChatGPT pretending to click around on your prototype than you would from an actual human being.”
Insight
Willison: Agentic coding removes developers' need for multi-hour focus blocks
“People talk about how important it is not to interrupt your coders, right? Your coders needs to have Like solid two to four hour blocks of uninterrupted work so they can spin up their mental model and tune out the code. It's some, that that's changed completel…”
Insight
Willison: Coding agents search local repositories to synthesize relevant code
“Coding agents can do searches. So you can give them access to an entire hard drive full of stuff and tell them what you need to solve, and they will run search tools to find just the examples that they need to piece things together.”
Insight
Willison: Abandoning automated tests with AI coding agents is a huge mistake
“I think it's a huge mistake if you drop tests in exchange for speed of development, because
Very quickly when you're working the test, you find your development speed goes up.
The existence of the test lets you move faster because you don't have to constantly …”
Insight
Willison: Minimal code skeletons guide AI agents better than long Claude.md instructions
“So sometimes, some people will tell you should have a Claude.md with like paragraphs of text describing how you like to work. I don't tend to do that because instead I start with a very thin skeleton that just gives it enough hints on how I like to work that i…”