The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Andreessen: AI will never transform existing US K-12 public classrooms
“How are we going to apply AI in education? The answer is we're not because it's a literal government monopoly. It is never going to change the end, and there is nothing to do. By the way, you can create an entirely new school system. Like that's the one thing …”
Swix: OpenAI will issue a cryptocurrency token to fund compute
“There is still one more shoe to drop, which is the non sovereign wealth funding that open AI needs to get, which they've promised to drop by the end of this year.
And my money is on, they have to do a coin.
Like it's, I'm not a crypto guy at all, but like, y…”
Nair: LLM agents will hit $1T before robotics hits $10B
“It feels like LLM agents are going to be like a trillion dollar market before robotics is maybe even like a ten billion dollar market.”
Sohmers: NVIDIA Blackwell memory bandwidth efficiency will be lower than Hopper
“All indications are, even though they, you know, more than doubled the theoretical memory bandwidth going from Hopper to Blackwell, the actual percentage of theoretical that you can achieve is, again, going to be less than the previous generation”
Kamradt Predicts ARC-AGI-2 Will Not Be Beaten For 12 Months
“My guess is it's not going to be beat for the next 12 months.”
Conrad: GPU market will likely return to a shortage by winter
“My general prediction is that like by the winter we will be back towards shortage, but then also this very much depends on
The rollout of future chips.”
Godement: Developers will rely on continuous, automated fine-tuning within years
“The vision we have is, fast forward a couple of years, I think, like, most developers will essentially, like, have an automated, continuous, fine-tuned model. The more, like, you use the model, the more data you pass to the mobile provider, like, the model is …”
Patel: AI inference will deploy more GPUs than training by 2024
“LLM inference will be bigger than training, or multimodal, whatever, blah, blah, blah inference will be bigger than training, you know, probably next year, in fact at least in terms of GPUs deployed,”
Cheah: Standard Transformers Will Never Scale to Ten Million Tokens
“I think what was quick, I think it was rather quick after I concluded that transformer as it is will not scale to ten million tokens.”
Swix: Overcast will basically never have searchable transcripts
“I should have a podcast that has transcripts that I can search. Very, very basic thing. Overcast will basically never have it.”
Patel: Google will avoid deploying local laptop models to retain control
“I don't think Google is going to deploy a model that I can run on my laptop to help me with code or help me with, you know, XYZ. They're always going to want to run it on the cloud for control.”
Swyx: OpenAI will always release both general and Codex model variants
“I'm pretty, like, have pretty high confidence that basically OpenAI will always release a GPT-V and a GPT-V codex.”
Mohan: Automated PR generation will require specialized models trained on diffs
“A lot of things people are excited about right now are I write a comment and it generates a PR for me. And that's like really awesome in theory. I think that's like a really cool thing. And I'm sure at some point we will be able to get there. That will probabl…”
Cheah: Cloud providers will slash model inference prices before raising them
“One thing to warn about pricing is that you're going to see a lot of providers jumping in, and everyone's just trying to get the piece of the pie. So, so, so like with some of the previous model launches, you see some people coming in at lower and lower price,…”