The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 659 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 59 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Andreessen: AI will expose every latent security flaw before fixing them all
“We're about to go through computer security is about to go through the most dramatic change ever, which is number one, like every single latent security bug is about to be exposed. So we're going to have like the, we're set up here for like the computer securi…”
Andreessen: High-quality software will become completely fungible and abundant
“And so this thing that was this incredibly scarce resource of high quality software is just going to become a completely fungible thing that you're just going to have as much as you want.”
Andreessen: AI agents will be the killer app for crypto
“I think this is the grand unification basically of AI and crypto is what's about to happen now. I think AI is the crypto killer app, I think is where, where this is really going to come out.”
Rieseberg: Specialized AI wrapper apps won't survive as models generalize
“I think we're going to see a lot of like applications and companies that do very impressive things with AI that in the short term might seem very effective because they're very specialized to individual use cases. But I think once models get better at generali…”
Rieseberg: AI takeoff will create an accelerating, self-reinforcing loop
“Big bang moment where things will accelerate so quickly that it becomes a self-reinforcing loop. And at that point it's sort of like off to the races and there will be no more like slowly catching up. You know, just have Claude being so good at everything.”
Algorithmic unhobblers could soon expand context windows to 100 million tokens
“I wouldn't be surprised if we do see the ability to, like, break through to, like, ten million, twenty million, a hundred million context through the, an unhobbler showing up.”
AI agents will achieve 24-hour self-consistent autonomous runtimes by late 2026
“We will see before the end of the year an agent that is capable of running for longer than 24 hours with like self consistency the entire time.”
Nelle: Coding workflows will shift from inspecting diffs to previewing video demos
“That's going to happen again, where it goes from agents handing you back gifts and you're sort of like in the weeds and giving it, you know, 32nd to three minute tasks to you're giving it, you know, three minute to 30 minute to three hour tasks and you're gett…”
Nelle: 10-Person Startups Using Cloud Agents Will Need Enterprise-Scale Dev Pipelines
“As with cloud agents, you scale up this parallelism and how much code you generate, 10 person startups become Need the DevEx and pipelines that a 10,000 person company used to need.”
Nelle: Developers will spend thousands to tens of thousands monthly on agents
“I think as we think about these highly parallel kind of agents running off for a long time in their own VM system, We are already at that point where people will be spending thousands of dollars a month per, per human, and I think potentially tens of thousands…”
Levie: A few wrong AI decisions could wipe software companies out
“You can just see how the AI tsunami could wipe you out. If you make just two, three, four or five wrong decisions in this space, like couple wrong architecture decisions, couple wrong AI feature decisions, couple wrong API platform decisions. And you might be …”
Levie: Distribution spending will match increased software code efficiency
“The thing that's going to happen on the ledger of software is we're going to produce far more output of code and thus features per dollar. But on the other end of this, we're going to actually end up spending probably just as much on how do you get all of that…”
Levie: AI agents will generate 10 to 100 times more code
“But no matter what, there's going to be 10 to a hundred times more code. So I think you can be very long engineering right now as just a, you know, purely on the dimension of software is going to become increasingly more important. Once agents are, you know, t…”
Becker: Operational Long Tail Will Delay Full AI R&D Automation
“There's this, Very long tail of things potentially involved in in R&D that would perhaps need to be fully automated in order to lead to capabilities explosion. I expect we're measuring, you know, in some ways only, only a small proportion of, only a small prop…”
Becker: Halving AI Compute Growth Halves Algorithmic Progress and Milestones
“And both of them both of those components half when compute halves sort of trivially, because compute is halving, and algorithmic progress halves because compute is this important input, and compute halves, then you might expect time horizon growth to half. An…”
Dylan Patel: TSMC will obey US export controls even under KMT
“Even if the KMT wins, it's not like TSMC starts disobeying American export restrictions because The way American export restrictions are upheld is that Taiwan utilizes American banking systems, American equipment industries, and so they'll still have to uphold…”
Patel: Google and Amazon will borrow debt to fund AI infrastructure
“Google and Amazon haven't taken on debt yet for AI infrastructure, but they will, right?”
Patel: Google will buy tons of GPUs through 2027 due to TPU limits
“When we look in 26, Google would buy a lot more TPUs, but they can't ramp production fast enough, right? And so they have to buy tons of GPUs. And we go to 27, it applies again, right? Google simply cannot buy enough TPUs, and they have to buy tons of GPUs.”
Patel: Semiconductor fab shortages will bottleneck AI through the end of the decade
“What's the bottleneck to building more fabs or to building more chips is more fabs, and people just have not built these fabs yet, right? And that's, I think, the big bottleneck now. And that's gonna persist through the end of the decade. Or until AI, you know…”
Welling: The Bitter Lesson of AI Scaling Will Overtake Materials Science
“The same bitter lessons or lessons that you can draw in LLM space are eventually going to be true in this space as well, I think.”
O'Laughlin: Entry-level data analysis jobs are at risk from agentic AI
“I just can't imagine if I was an entry level worker doing data analysis that a 22 year old, an average 22 year old would murder the hell out of a relatively well thought out agentic system. And so you're like, yeah, that job actually does seem at risk.”
O'Laughlin: Claude Code tools will become baseline for information work in 24 months
“I would argue what we'll see in the 24 month view, it will be a base level, I think. I think. Cloud code, co-work, whatever is going to be a base level of all information work very soon.”
O'Laughlin: AI Agents Will Write 25% to 50% of Public Code by Year-End
“I sandbagged the ever-living share of that. I just believe 25 is, Very, like, I, like, it's like a, the rate it's on is like, whatever, 50 or something like that, but I think, I feel, I wanted to give a 95 confidence interval. I think 25 is within the 95 confi…”
O'Laughlin: TPU v8 will not compete as well against Nvidia Rubin
“V-A we just don't think will be as competitive to Ruben, and that's when your special window starts to close.”
O'Laughlin: Memory supply will not catch up with demand for two years
“And then boom, you're just looking at the supply demand and you're like, yeah, this is not gonna catch up for like two years.”
O'Laughlin: DRAM prices could rise another 100%, causing demand destruction
“We, I, our posts, our conclusion is like, we could see DRAM prices like go up a hundred percent again. Like it's gonna be the point where, and this is like also example, like really interesting in the whole thing. Another hundred percent I think is demand dest…”
O'Laughlin: Tech industry may face a CPU shortage from AI coding and RL
“You feel like we might actually be seeing a CPU shortage partially because of this refresh cycle, but partially also because like I legitimately believe the cloud code Cloud code is increasing software creation and then on top of that, there is real demand fro…”
O'Laughlin: Memory shortages will price out low-end phones and gaming GPUs
“Memory prices are going to go up so much that we're going to have to choose which exactly. That's the crazy part to me. Historically, memory has never been a constraint like this where I said, actually, you're not going to get your low end. You're not going to…”
Dean: General AI models will win out over specialized ones
“I mean, I think general models will win out over specialized ones in most cases.”
Enterprises will widely adopt specialized AI pre-training in 2026 and 2027
“So I think like, 26 and 27 are going to be the years where different enterprises start doing specialized pre-training, because the cost of pre-training really amortizes itself very fast.”
Deng: Scaling alone will not achieve AI needed for mission-critical deployments
“Scale is not going to get us to the type of AI development that we want to be at in, in the future as these models get more powerful and get deployed and all these sorts of like mission critical contexts.”
Garg: Context graphs will be AI's most critical layer over next decade
“There is an intermediate abstraction Which we call context graphs, which is the accumulation of decision traces. And this incumulated abstraction, in our opinion, will be the one that will matter the most over the next decade. It's the enduring layer for the m…”
Garg: Context graph stack will eclipse modern data stack value by 10x
“Two, I think the enabling infrastructure stack for context graphs would be well-defined. And there will be variations and flavors, but, you know, I totally anticipate that this time next year we'll be writing, okay, here's, here's the way, here's the best prac…”
Andrew White: Automating scientific discovery will increase overall demand rather than displace jobs
“In science, I don't think there is a finite appetite or a finite capacity for science. I don't think science is like a scarcity thing. Like there's, you know, 100 more discoveries left to be made and then we'll be done. And so like we're displacing jobs. I thi…”
Weil: 2026 for AI in science will mirror 2025 software engineering
“I think, 2026 for ai and science is going to look a lot like what 2025 looked like for soft ai and software engineering yeah where if you go back to the beginning of 2025 if you were using ai heavily to write your code you were sort of an early adopter and lik…”
Tay: Most specialized tools will be subsumed directly into model parameters
“Then the most I can see in the future is there'll be a model then that, that is, there's something that really cannot be subsumed by a model. Then you just use a tool or something, right? But my prediction is that I think most things can be subsumed by the mod…”
Yi Tay: The Architecture That Achieves AGI Will Still Be a Transformer
“It will be a transformer, I think. Like people, it depends on what you call it, but I think unless the paradigm shifts completely, which is, I mean, as a scientist, you cannot like completely say no to like that, this would never happen. But my feeling is that…”
McGrath: Specialized and Frontier Reasoning AI Models Will Eventually Converge
“You know, I think if you look at like deep research, the original one and GPT-Five thinking on like high reasoning today, I think you'll see that like eventually the models all sort of converge in their capabilities.”
Nair: LLM agents will hit $1T before robotics hits $10B
“It feels like LLM agents are going to be like a trillion dollar market before robotics is maybe even like a ten billion dollar market.”
Nair: AI will probably reach human-level intelligence around 2030
“And actually, you know, it is, it's somewhere in the, like, twenty-thirty-ish thing that, like, it will probably reach, like, human level intelligence.”
Yegge: Developer tooling will become agent orchestration dashboards
“So what it's going to be is it's going to be your agent orchestration dashboard. It's you're going to walk in in the morning and be like, yo, so how's it going to do, right? It's like, oh, that one's still running. That one's running a tool. That one needs my …”
Yegge: Automated factory farming of code will arrive by summer
“We will still get to factory farming code. With today's model's capabilities, and we'll get there fast, we'll get there by summer, but the models are getting smarter so fast.”
Yegge: Open source models will match Gemini 3 by next summer
“From what I've heard, they, they're seven months behind, and that, that gap is gradually narrowing. The frontier models, which means OSS models will be as good as Gemini three next summer.”
Zhang: AI models will handle simple vision natively, using tools for complexity
“I think at least I want to bet on, you know, running their work natively together, the future for simple, I would say for simple or even intermediate difficult vision tasks. For example, kind of counting with less than 20 objects. I think for this kind of simp…”
Text and speech generation will become actions emitted by world models
“I think text prediction is just one of the actions that is going to come out of these, you know, these policies and world models. I think speech and text generation will just be one of the actions that, that can be a part of that.”
General Intuition aims to drive 80% of AI physical interactions by 2030
“In the atoms to atoms stage, I want, like, I want GI models to be responsible for 80% of all the atoms to atoms interactions driven by AI models and the reason for that is because we were able to unblock intelligence so quickly, and robotics, like, intelligenc…”
Hezarkhani: Tenex will have engineers making over $1M cash next year
“We will probably have more than one engineer make million dollars cash next year based on this model. And that is just with story point compensation. It's very likely that we will have more than a handful of folks make more than a million dollars next year.”
AI Labs Will Not Dedicate Engineering Talent to Deep Enterprise Search
“If you really want to go deep, I don't think you will ever dedicate the people to do it. And the last thing I'll say is you think about from an anthropic engineer's perspective, you joined a big AI lab to work on models, not to build Google drive connectors, r…”