Becker: Halving AI Compute Growth Halves Algorithmic Progress and Milestones
Joel Becker · Measuring Exponential Trends Rising (in AI) — Joel Becker, METR · Feb 27, 2026 · at 36:12
Joel Becker from METR explains the modeled effect of compute slowdowns on algorithmic progress and AI milestone timelines.
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“And both of them both of those components half when compute halves sort of trivially, because compute is halving, and algorithmic progress halves because compute is this important input, and compute halves, then you might expect time horizon growth to half. And then some of these major capabilities milestones that you might be interested in would be significantly delayed.”
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