METR

“They established a Moore's law for time between human input, basically, and it's basically doubling every three to seven months is the idea. And Enthopic is currently doing super well on that benchmark. It's roughly about autonomous for 15 minutes at the 50th …”

“AI sped me up a bit, but only in specific cases and only when taking a lot of sort of digital hygiene practices.”

“Could a low-context human who was sufficiently skilled at sort of The general skills, but maybe, maybe not the particulars in the background would they be able to achieve success on, on this task? And I think that, that rules out a lot of real work because, yo…”

“You know, instead we're just plotting what's the difficulty of tasks they can do over time, and that difficulty is measured in human time.”

“Opus-IV. I'm sure can do that task a hundred percent of the time.”

“We find, we think it's not capable enough, you know, on the basis of some of this capabilities evidence that you've alluded to commit these catastrophic harms.”

“Then we go up to HCOS tasks, which span from, you know, only a little harder than those small tasks, all the way up to, you know, something like 20:30 hours, which are requiring of more autonomy, more sort of more sort of sequential actions.”

“Tasks that are requiring of vision capabilities, they're probably to take one example, they're probably much less capable today as measured by time horizon, as for these tasks that are typically not requiring vision, vision capabilities that we give them.”

“We have been redoing it in the background.”

“Maybe one that I'll call out there is this difference between whether models pass unit tests, whether they succeed by, you know, SWE bench-like scoring kind of meter-like scoring, benchmark-style scoring, versus whether their solution would be merged into main…”

“So, something like the autonomous replication threat model, that is being able to set yourself up and control resources, something like that, has been deprioritized relative to AR and D acceleration. That is, you know, the possibility there could be some capab…”

“Usually this is black box, not, not white box in, in, in my understanding in, in current work. So, so not using interpretability, but you can imagine in principle doing, doing, doing something more white box.”

“There's this, Very long tail of things potentially involved in in R&D that would perhaps need to be fully automated in order to lead to capabilities explosion. I expect we're measuring, you know, in some ways only, only a small proportion of, only a small prop…”

“You know, in some ways, I think the story of Time Horizon is that progress has been remarkably continuous over, over so many years, so many orders of magnitude of compute and effective compute.”