LLMs

81 statements across 65 episodes · 37 bullish · 19 bearish · 68 people on the record · first statement Aug 31, 2023 by Eugene Cheah · across every show →

Everything said about LLMs, oldest first

Aug 31, 2023 neutral
Insight
Cheah: LoRA Cannot Teach LLMs New Languages or Novel Concepts
“Laura cannot teach new language. It cannot it's sometimes may struggle to teach new techniques or new, new concepts. It does well into adding and refining existing contact knowledge.”
Eugene Cheah Aug 31, 2023 ▶ 1:50:20 RWKV: Reinventing RNNs for the Transformer Era
Oct 12, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Liu: Fine-tuned LLMs will become the primary scalable evaluation solution
“No, but these models will get better and you'll probably fine tune a model to be a better judge. I think that's probably what's going to happen. So I'm like reasonably bullish on this because I don't think there's really a good alternative beyond you just huma…”
Jerry Liu Oct 12, 2023 ▶ 1:06:00 RAG is a hack - with Jerry Liu of LlamaIndex
Oct 12, 2023 positive
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2028
Liu: Developers will eventually fine-tune new factual knowledge into LLMs
“That's one of those things where I think long-term, you definitely can. I think some people say you can't. I disagree. I think you definitely can. Just right now, I haven't gotten into work yet.”
Jerry Liu Oct 12, 2023 ▶ 29:53 RAG is a hack - with Jerry Liu of LlamaIndex
Oct 20, 2023
Assertion Supported
Howard: Experiments show LLMs can memorize full datasets in one epoch
“And so we ran a bunch of experiments, and all of them supported the hypothesis that it was memorizing the data set in a single thing at once.”
Jeremy Howard Oct 20, 2023 ▶ 41:14 The End of Finetuning — with Jeremy Howard of Fast.ai
Dec 5, 2023
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Patel: Several companies make tens of millions from adult AI models
“I think there's a couple companies who make, Tens of millions of dollars of revenue from, yeah, from LLMs or diffusion models for porn”
Dylan Patel Dec 5, 2023 ▶ 29:48 The State of Silicon and the GPU Poors - with Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis
Dec 17, 2023
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Yegge: Developers will spend far less time learning DSLs like regular expressions
“And I think you're going to see a lot less of people having to slave away learning these things. They just have to know the broad capabilities and then the LLM will take care of the rest.”
Steve Yegge Dec 17, 2023 ▶ 43:57 The "Normsky" architecture for AI coding agents — with Beyang Liu + Steve Yegge of SourceGraph
Feb 19, 2024 bearish
Insight
Switching Costs for Open-Source LLM Inference Providers Are Zero
“The LLM space is, like, the opposite. Like, the switching cost of LLMs is zero, right? Like, if all you're doing is, like, straight up, like, at least, like, open source, right? Like, if all you're doing is, like, you know, using some, you know, inference endp…”
Erik Bernhardsson Feb 19, 2024 ▶ 49:55 Truly Serverless Infra for AI Engineers - with Erik Bernhardsson of Modal
Mar 27, 2024 bullish
Prediction Held up
Multimodal models will completely supplant text-only large language models
“I actually think like it's really clear today. Multimodal models are the default foundation model, right? It's just going to supplant LLMs. Like why did you just train a giant multimodal model?”
David Luan Mar 27, 2024 ▶ 28:05 Why Google failed to make GPT-3 -- with David Luan of Adept
Mar 27, 2024 positive
Insight
Luan: LLMs shortcut evolutionary RL by behaviorally cloning all human knowledge
“Like de novo RL is like a pretty terrible way to get there quickly. Why are we rediscovering all the knowledge about the world? Like years ago, I had a debate with a Berkeley professor as to like what will it actually take to build HCI? And his view is basical…”
David Luan Mar 27, 2024 ▶ 5:38 Why Google failed to make GPT-3 -- with David Luan of Adept
Apr 27, 2024
Insight
Malhotra: Assistant personas are conjured by weights, not the weights themselves
“The assistant isn't the weights. The assistant, the entity you're talking to is something drummed up by the weights.”
Karan Malhotra Apr 27, 2024 ▶ 5:40 This World Does Not Exist — Joscha Bach, Karan Malhotra, Rob Haisfield (WorldSim, WebSim, Liquid AI)
Apr 27, 2024 negative
Opinion
Bach: LLMs likely lack genuine perception due to asynchronous processing
“And if we map this to what the LLMs are doing, They're probably not able to have genuine perception, because they're not coupled to an environment in which things are happening now. Instead, it's all asynchronous in a way.”
Joscha Bach Apr 27, 2024 ▶ 1:11:13 This World Does Not Exist — Joscha Bach, Karan Malhotra, Rob Haisfield (WorldSim, WebSim, Liquid AI)
Apr 27, 2024 bearish
Opinion
Bach: Coercing LLMs into good behavior is unsustainable
“At the moment, the idea that we build LLMs that are being coerced with good behavior is not really sustainable. Because if they cannot prove that the behavior is actually good I think we are doomed.”
Joscha Bach Apr 27, 2024 ▶ 1:49:18 This World Does Not Exist — Joscha Bach, Karan Malhotra, Rob Haisfield (WorldSim, WebSim, Liquid AI)
Apr 27, 2024 positive
Opinion
Malhotra: Modern language models contain internal models of the world
“Today we have language models that are powerful enough and big enough to have really, really good models of the world. They know a ball that's bouncy will bounce, will, when you throw it in the air, it'll land, when it's on water, it'll float, like, these basi…”
Karan Malhotra Apr 27, 2024 ▶ 7:04 This World Does Not Exist — Joscha Bach, Karan Malhotra, Rob Haisfield (WorldSim, WebSim, Liquid AI)
Jun 11, 2024 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Conover: AI model developers are absolutely overfitting to public evaluation benchmarks
“And I think the work around over, you know, overfitting on the test, I think is like that. 100% is happening.”
Mike Conover Jun 11, 2024 ▶ 58:21 How AI is Eating Finance - with Mike Conover of Brightwave
Jun 11, 2024 positive
Insight
Conover: Classical ML provides statistical output guarantees that LLMs cannot offer
“Traditional machine learning has a real material role to play in producing a system that hangs together, and there are, you know, guaranteeable Like statistical promises that classical machine learning systems to include traditional deep learning can make abou…”
Mike Conover Jun 11, 2024 ▶ 44:44 How AI is Eating Finance - with Mike Conover of Brightwave
Jul 23, 2024 bullish
Insight
Scialom: Overtrain models beyond Chinchilla optimal to minimize inference costs
“And so, to be compute efficient at inference time, it's much better to train it much longer training time, even if it's an effort, an additional effort, than to have a bigger model. That's what I call, like, I refer to the chinchilla trap, Not that Chinchilla …”
Thomas Scialom Jul 23, 2024 ▶ 11:44 Training Llama 2, 3 & 4: The Path to Open Source AGI — with Thomas Scialom of Meta AI
Aug 2, 2024 neutral
Insight
Developers will trade 50 milliseconds of latency for higher model quality
“I think the biggest change in this market is like, Latency is actually not that important anymore. Like we lived in the past 10 years in a world where like 10, 15, 20 milliseconds made a big difference. I think today people will be happy to trade 50 millisecon…”
Alessio Fanelli Aug 2, 2024 ▶ 59:10 The Winds of AI Winter (Q2 Four Wars of the AI Stack Recap)
Aug 22, 2024 positive
Insight
Cosine built code retrieval tooling before LLMs could support autonomous agents
“Well, there are going to be some things that you need to build this when the tech does catch up. So retrieval being one of the most important things, like the model is going to have to be able to like pull code out for code base somehow. So we were like, well,…”
Alistair Pullen Aug 22, 2024 ▶ 9:02 Is finetuning GPT4o worth it?
Aug 28, 2024
Insight
Carlini: If prompt engineering takes longer than manual work, LLMs save no time
“If I have to spend so much time thinking about how I want to frame the question that it would have been faster for me just to get the answer. Didn't save me any time. And so oftentimes, you know, what I do is like, I just dump in whatever current thought that …”
Nicholas Carlini Aug 28, 2024 ▶ 44:11 Personal benchmarks vs HumanEval - with Nicholas Carlini of DeepMind
Aug 28, 2024 positive
Insight
Carlini: LLMs reduce onboarding to unfamiliar tools from hours to 10 minutes
“It would have taken me. You know, several hours to figure out some things that take 10 minutes if you could just ask exactly the question you want the answer to.”
Nicholas Carlini Aug 28, 2024 ▶ 13:00 Personal benchmarks vs HumanEval - with Nicholas Carlini of DeepMind
Sep 17, 2024 positive
Opinion
Pokrass: LLMs are far more rational 'econs' than humans
“So I think way more than all of us, they are e-cons.”
Michelle Pokrass Sep 17, 2024 ▶ 1:10:44 Building AGI with OpenAI's Structured Outputs API
Sep 20, 2024
Assertion Supported
Schulhoff: LLMs Rely More on Prompt Structure Than Exemplar Labels
“There are a number of papers which have found that the label of the exemplar doesn't really matter, and the model reads the exemplars and cares more about structure than label.”
Sander Schulhoff Sep 20, 2024 ▶ 26:41 The Ultimate Guide to Prompting - with Sander Schulhoff from LearnPrompting.org
Sep 21, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Karpathy predicts LLMs will act as compilers generating bare-metal CUDA code
“If LLINs are about to become much better at coding over time, then I think you can expect that the LLIN could actually do this for any custom application over time. And so the LLINs could act as a kind of compiler What you're interested in, they're gonna do al…”
Andrej Karpathy Sep 21, 2024 ▶ 21:54 llm.c's Origin and the Future of LLM Compilers - Andrej Karpathy at CUDA MODE
Sep 27, 2024 neutral
Insight
Harrison Chase says developers should guide agent planning explicitly in code
“Sometimes I say that like the LLMs aren't [4137] Great at planning yet. [4138] So we can help them plan by telling them how to plan and code. [4140] Cause that's very explicit and that's a good way of communicating how they should plan and stuff like that.”
Harrison Chase Sep 27, 2024 ▶ 1:08:52 Language Agents: From Reasoning to Acting — with Shunyu Yao of OpenAI, Harrison Chase of LangGraph
Oct 11, 2024 positive
Insight
Goyal: Systems betting on intrinsic LLM reasoning improvements are more durable
“If you build your system in a way that Kind of assumes LLMs will get better at reasoning and get better at sort of agentic tasks in the LLM itself. Then I think you will build a more durable system.”
Ankur Goyal Oct 11, 2024 ▶ 1:45:53 Production AI Engineering starts with Evals
Oct 18, 2024 positive
Insight
Houston: Proper Algorithms and LLMs Yield Strong Results Without Massive Data
“If you choose, like, the right algorithm and the right approach, you can actually get, like, super good results without having, like, a ton of data, and even with LLMs. You can apply all these other techniques to give them, to kind of bootstrap, kind of like t…”
Drew Houston Oct 18, 2024 ▶ 11:59 Building the Silicon Brain - Drew Houston of Dropbox
Nov 29, 2024 positive
Assertion Contradicted
Vibhu: Synthetic data research shows LLMs verify better than they generate
“A lot of the synthetic datagen papers, like orca-three, wizard-lm, they show that models are better at verifying output than generating output.”
Vibhu (Veebu) Nov 29, 2024 ▶ 27:14 [Paper Club] DocETL: Agentic Query Rewriting + Eval for Complex Document Processing w Shreya Shankar
Dec 2, 2024 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedman: AI Agents Will Shift Developer Focus From Code to Specs and Tests
“Eventually, I think that that's where the world is going to. Like the code It's going to be there, and we're, there will be developers, et cetera, but as agent improves and capabilities of the LLMs and integrations to different parts of the environment, develo…”
Itamar Friedman Dec 2, 2024 ▶ 57:50 0 to over $8M ARR in 2 months as a Claude Wrapper (Bolt.new, Qodo)
Dec 22, 2024 bearish
Opinion
Korupati: Vision-Language Models Are Lagging Behind LLMs in Reasoning
“LLMs are showing enormous progress in reasoning, especially with the latest set of models that we've seen, but we're not really seeing, I have a feeling that VLMs are lagging behind, as we can see with these tasks that should be very simple for a human to do t…”
Vik Korupati Dec 22, 2024 ▶ 53:01 Best of 2024 in Vision [LS Live @ NeurIPS]
Jan 10, 2025 bullish
Insight
Bryk: 200x drop in LLM costs requires rethinking search from scratch
“When some very useful tool goes down in cost by 200 X in like the space of, I don't know, a couple years, There are going to be new opportunities in search, right? So like, to not integrate this and build up, to not like rethink search from scratch, the search…”
Will Bryk Jan 10, 2025 ▶ 55:20 Beating Google at Search with Neural PageRank and $5M of H200s — with Will Bryk of Exa.ai
Jan 10, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Exa.ai uses LLMs as data labelers instead of humans
“We could get by, which we are right now doing, using, like, LLMs as the labelers.”
Will Bryk Jan 10, 2025 ▶ 48:45 Beating Google at Search with Neural PageRank and $5M of H200s — with Will Bryk of Exa.ai
Jan 17, 2025 positive
Insight
Swyx: Diff critiques steer LLM style better than few-shot examples
“And actually I found that that is a better way of doing this than when doing, you know, XML bracket, good example, close bracket, bad example, close bracket. Those examples tend to meet. There's an issue of prompts leaking, example leaking. Where there's a few…”
Shawn Wang Jan 17, 2025 ▶ 19:33 OpenAI o1 isn’t a chat model (and that’s the point)
Jan 26, 2025 negative
Insight
Beauchamp: LLMs are next-token simulators, not reasoning engines
“The models have proven to just be far worse at reasoning than people sort of thought, and I think whenever I hear people talk about LLMs as reasoning engines, I sort of cringe a bit. I don't think that's what they are. I think of them more as like a simulator.”
William Beauchamp Jan 26, 2025 ▶ 52:17 Outlasting Noam Shazeer, Crowdsourcing Chai AI w/ 1.4m DAU — with William Beauchamp, Chai Research
Feb 5, 2025 positive
Insight
Agarwal: AI gateways act as operational platforms offering governance beyond basic proxies
“So I think AI gateways are essentially the operational platforms that enable teams to connect to LLMs more efficiently. They help you improve cost, performance, and accuracy by not having you to build individual connections to all of these different AI service…”
Rohit Agarwal Feb 5, 2025 ▶ 1:04 Why every AI Engineer needs an AI Gateway (ft Portkey.ai CEO)
Feb 17, 2025 neutral
Insight
Sutin: LLMs struggle to effectively process knowledge graphs at inference time
“The problem with knowledge graphs that we found is like, and I don't know if you can tell me what your experience has been, but they're great for representing the data, but then like using it at inference time is kind of challenging, like... Just like the LLM …”
Ethan Sutin Feb 17, 2025 ▶ 1:01:35 Bee AI: The Wearable Ambient Agent
Feb 26, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Mann: Raycast extracts LLM tool definitions directly from TypeScript JSDoc
“Basically what we came up with, it's essentially you just write a TypeScript function and you document your TypeScript function with JSDoc. And then we extract all the information from there and basically make that and pass that information to the LLMs.”
Thomas Paul Mann Feb 26, 2025 ▶ 16:42 Raycast: Your AI Automation Assistant
Mar 13, 2025 neutral
Insight
Shankar: LLM failure modes and evaluation techniques have largely stabilized
“I think techniques have stabilized. I think the kinds of failure modes of LLMs, I mean, they're still there, but it's not like changing every single day. We know that LLMs are bad at certain things. We know a little bit more about say limitations of the transf…”
Shreya Shankar Mar 13, 2025 ▶ 11:21 [Lightning Pod] Evals: How to Improve AI Consistently — with Hamel Husain and Shreya Shankar
Mar 14, 2025
Disclosure
Ben-Smith: Snipd uses LLMs to recalibrate speaker diarization switching points
“Another thing is that we actually combine it with LLMs. So the transcripts, LLMs and the speaker diarization, like bringing all of these together to recalibrate some of the switching points.”
Kevin Ben-Smith Mar 14, 2025 ▶ 38:36 Snipd: The AI Podcast App for Learning — with CEO Kevin Ben-Smith
Mar 19, 2025 positive
Insight
Kozlov: AI agents require tightly coupling compute and state
“An agent is really like LLMs and a bunch of workflows and coordination and orchestration and then extra, like some sort of services, right? Like you have kind of the brain of the operation, which is the LLM and it can come up with a plan. And then, but then it…”
Rita Kozlov Mar 19, 2025 ▶ 3:06 npm install Agents — with Sunil Pai and Rita Kozlov (VP AI) of Cloudflare
Mar 28, 2025 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Shah: Model routing achieves multi-order-of-magnitude cost cuts without quality loss
“We can get a dramatic multiple words of magnitude reduction by going to a lower model with literally like no change in the quality of the output.”
Dharmesh Shah Mar 28, 2025 ▶ 59:47 The Agent Network — Dharmesh Shah, Agent.ai + CTO of HubSpot
Apr 24, 2025 bullish
Disclosure
E2B plans to let LLM agents deploy and manage apps directly
“Eventually, like, we want the LLMs to Deploy these services, apps that they are building, and, ah, have them manage it, and developer is more like in the backseat, like, looking at things if everything is working correctly. If your swarm of agents is working c…”
Vasek Mlejnsky Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 1:00:00 Why Every Agent needs Open Source Cloud Sandboxes
Apr 24, 2025 neutral
Insight
Mlejnsky: Agent sandboxes need persistent state, not one-off execution
“The important part is that you don't need to explain the model, and the model doesn't need to care about how to keep the state of the program running. So it was, especially with our earlier models, I think the models are now smarter, but they kept producing, l…”
Vasek Mlejnsky Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 9:09 Why Every Agent needs Open Source Cloud Sandboxes
May 7, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Sobo: AI editor moats are shrinking rapidly due to better tool-calling LLMs
“So there's a, there was a lot of like integration work to bridge that gap, but now the LLMs, because they've taken on this tool calling and are getting better at tool calling, the story is the integration story has definitely gotten a lot easier. I think it's …”
Nathan Sobo May 7, 2025 ▶ 11:56 Zed Agents — with Zed Cofounders Nathan Sobo & Antonio Scandurra
Jun 10, 2025 neutral
Insight
Kirkos: LLMs struggle with 2D spreadsheet layouts, requiring custom fine-tuning
“We are working on fine tuning a model. We think we can get the costs of inference way down and the quality and specific, you know, AI working in a spreadsheet is not really what these models were trained to do, right? There's a lot of two D positioning code er…”
David Kirkos Jun 10, 2025 ▶ 14:49 Quadratic: The AI Spreadsheet
Jun 19, 2025 positive
Opinion
Brown: LLMs implicitly develop world models through scale alone
“I think it's pretty clear that as these models get bigger, they have a world model, and that world model becomes better with scale. So they are implicitly developing a world model, and I don't think it's something that you need to explicitly model.”
Noam Brown Jun 19, 2025 ▶ 52:30 Scaling Test Time Compute to Multi-Agent Civilizations — Noam Brown, OpenAI
Jun 25, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Ben Holmes: LLMs may eventually eliminate the need for React Native
“My hot take was, I don't know if we need things like React Native in the future, because you can just ask these LLMs to translate between different native environments.”
Ben Holmes Jun 25, 2025 ▶ 50:34 ⚡️Warp 2.0: the Agentic Development Environment - Zach Lloyd and Ben Holmes
Jul 14, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Frontier LLMs remain unreliable at realistic multi-turn tool calling
“Our last leaderboard is saying that models are really great at tool calling. So it's like safe, but they actually not, right? They're making mistakes and this is going to recalibrate the expectation of the users that Be careful because they're still not perfec…”
Pratik Bhavsar Jul 14, 2025 ▶ 33:22 ⚡️Ranking Agentic LLMs — Pratik Bhavsar, Galileo
Jul 18, 2025 negative
Insight
Kamradt: Human-Built Benchmarks Prevent AI From Reverse-Engineering Generation Code
“And the problem with that is that we don't want to incentivize AI to derive the program that made the game. Right? And so if we continue to have humans make the game, then the AI is incentivized to try to reverse engineer the G inside of humans, and that's kin…”
Greg Kamradt Jul 18, 2025 ▶ 23:07 ⚡️ARC-AGI-3: The Interactive Reasoning Benchmark
Jul 23, 2025
Opinion
McCloy: Stopping LLMs broadly from consuming web content will be nearly impossible
“You can fight the battle, I think, of saying, OpenAI shouldn't consume your content without paying for it, or shouldn't consume it at all. But I think it's gonna be really tough to fight the battle of saying, like, LLMs writ large shouldn't consume my content,…”
Robert McCloy Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 13:27 AI is Eating Search
Jul 28, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hou: Developers will no longer need explicit @-mentions in AI IDEs
“In the long term, we believe that LLMs are going to improve, and they already have improved to the point where you don't need to explicitly specify an at mention. The LLMs should be intelligent enough to pick it up.”
Kevin Hou Jul 28, 2025 ▶ 3:00:58 🕰️ The Oral History of Windsurf (ft. Varun Mohan, Scott Wu, Jeff Wang, Kevin Hou, Anshul R)
Aug 5, 2025 neutral
Insight
Dax Reed says working with AI is code review, not code writing.
“Like when you're talking to these LLMs, the work you're doing is not writing code, it's reviewing code.”
Dax Reed Aug 5, 2025 ▶ 8:22 ⚡️OpenCode: Claude Code but Open Source, with Any Model, and frontier TUI - with Dax Reed (@thdxr)
Aug 18, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sohmers: Reasoning models shift inference workloads to 100 output tokens per input
“If you go back a year from today in July of last year, the ratios of like input to output for LLMs were very, very heavily on, on inputs where you could be doing, you know, 10, 10, 15 to one ratio of input to output. But that has completely flipped and it's ob…”
Thomas Sohmers Aug 18, 2025 ▶ 42:06 ⚡️Accelerators @ 3x NVIDIA H200 perf, Made in the USA - Thomas Sohmers + Mitesh Agrawal, Positron AI
Aug 19, 2025 negative
Insight
Huber: LLM Performance and Reasoning Degrade as Token Counts Increase
“The performance of LLMs is not invariant to how many tokens you use. As you use more and more tokens, the model can pay attention to less, and then also can reason sort of less effectively.”
Jeff Huber Aug 19, 2025 ▶ 14:05 Long Live Context Engineering - with Jeff Huber of Chroma
Aug 19, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Huber: LLMs will largely replace purpose-built re-rankers
“I think that, like, this is going to be the dominant paradigm. I actually think that, like, probably purpose-built re-rankers will go away, and the same way that, like, purpose-built, they'll still exist, right? Like, if you're at extreme scale, extreme cost, …”
Jeff Huber Aug 19, 2025 ▶ 25:50 Long Live Context Engineering - with Jeff Huber of Chroma
Sep 25, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ball: Complex sub-agent workflows will result in user hangovers
“A lot of the features what we see, you know, where people build like elaborate workflows, like I have my custom slash commands and they trigger custom Custom sub-agents and they in turn trigger custom MCP tool calls behind which again another model is doing in…”
Thorsten Ball Sep 25, 2025 ▶ 35:22 Amp: The Emperor Has No Clothes
Sep 25, 2025 negative
Opinion
Slack: AI prompt enhancers are a 'bullshit feature' that does not work
“Yeah, so prompt enhancer, that's a bullshit feature that doesn't actually work. The theory behind it is nuts, because what helps LLMs is not tricks and phrasing your prompt in a certain way. It's fundamentally information that you have in your head that you ca…”
Quinn Slack Sep 25, 2025 ▶ 40:46 Amp: The Emperor Has No Clothes
Oct 5, 2025 negative
Insight
Agarwal: LLMs are really bad at processing time series data
“Because most of the data you're looking at is like time series data. And these LLMs are really bad at processing time series data, right? And that's really where like good statistics comes in.”
Anish Agarwal Oct 5, 2025 ▶ 17:58 ⚡️Traversal: Causal ML and Reinforcement Learning
Oct 5, 2025 neutral
Insight
Dwivedi: LLMs handle semantics while statistics must handle time series
“The agent is not good at looking at time series data, so that's, that is what statistics needs to take care of. But statistics doesn't understand what is the relationship between latency and memory usage and disk utilization. So that is the LLM part.”
Raaz Dwivedi Oct 5, 2025 ▶ 19:45 ⚡️Traversal: Causal ML and Reinforcement Learning
Oct 30, 2025 negative
Insight
Sands: Manual writing forces first-principles reasoning that LLMs dangerously bypass
“It forces you to think deeply. It forces you to structure your reasoning. I don't know about you guys, but when I read a doc, when I write a doc, I've like read the doc like 50 times and thought about like, Does this logic track? Are there gotchas I'm not cons…”
Emily Glassberg Sands Oct 30, 2025 ▶ 55:42 The Agents Economy Backbone - with Emily Glassberg Sands, Head of Data & AI at Stripe
Nov 25, 2025 bullish
Insight
Johnson: Pixels offer a more lossless world representation than tokenized text
“And then like you actually lose something if you translate to this like purely tokenized representations that we use in LLMs, right? Like you lose the font, you lose the line breaks, you lose sort of the two D arrangement on the page. And for a lot of cases, f…”
Justin Johnson Nov 25, 2025 ▶ 22:11 After LLMs: Spatial Intelligence and World Models — Fei-Fei Li & Justin Johnson, World Labs
Dec 6, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Language model labs and world model labs will ultimately converge on capabilities
“I think that there will just be labs coming at this problem from both sides. And everyone ends up in roughly the same place, and the same place will be whatever people think is cool.”
Pim de Witte Dec 6, 2025 ▶ 49:41 World Models & General Intuition: Khosla's largest bet since LLMs & OpenAI
Dec 6, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Yann LeCun calling LLMs a dead end inspired General Intuition's founding
“Honestly, Jan's podcast that he did, I don't remember which one it was, but a long time ago, where he basically proclaimed LLMs to be a dead end it was one of the things that inspired me to do this.”
Pim de Witte Dec 6, 2025 ▶ 46:58 World Models & General Intuition: Khosla's largest bet since LLMs & OpenAI
Dec 30, 2025 neutral
Insight
Nair: RL on LLMs is peaky and fails to generalize beyond training
“RL, the way it's applied to LLMs right now, is kind of a weird, funny tool where it doesn't really generalize beyond the training distribution that much. It generalizes to some extent, and generalizes in interesting ways, but It's like very peaky, right? Like …”
Ashvin Nair Dec 30, 2025 ▶ 12:26 [State of RL/Reasoning] IMO/IOI Gold, OpenAI o3/GPT-5, and Cursor Composer — Ashvin Nair, Cursor
Jan 9, 2026 positive
Insight
Cameron: Models perform better with minimal tools than rigid frameworks
“I think where we're getting to is that these models have gotten smart enough, they've gotten better, better tools that they can perform better when just given a minimalist set of tools and let them run, let the model Control the agentic workflow rather than us…”
George Cameron Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 51:27 Artificial Analysis: The Independent LLM Analysis House — with George Cameron and Micah Hill-Smith
Jan 9, 2026
Insight
Hill-Smith: Building LLM applications turns every component into a benchmarking problem
“The more you go into building something using LLMs, the more each bit of what you're doing ends up being a benchmarking problem.”
Micah Hill-Smith Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 4:50 Artificial Analysis: The Independent LLM Analysis House — with George Cameron and Micah Hill-Smith
Jan 17, 2026 negative
Insight
Reggio: Constraining LLMs to deterministic DAGs undersells their planning power
“My intuition has been that trying to craft LLMs into deterministic workflows and DAGs is, is kind of underselling like the power that they have to actually plan and execute more in a more sophisticated, like fluid way.”
James Reggio Jan 17, 2026 ▶ 1:08:04 Brex’s AI Hail Mary — With CTO James Reggio (acquired for $5B by Capital One!)
Jan 28, 2026 bullish
Opinion
White: Existing LLMs Are Already Capable of Automating Much of Science
“We can actually automate so much of the scientific method, because it turns out, especially in a field like biology, which is very empirical limited, you know, the top one percent guesser of, you know, what they think will happen in experiment that, you know, …”
Andrew White Jan 28, 2026 ▶ 15:29 🔬 From Red Teaming GPT-4 to Automating Drug Discovery: The Future of AI in Science — Andrew White
Feb 12, 2026
Insight
LLMs Need Massive Parameters for Memorization, Unlike Biology Models
“Part of the reason the LLMs are so large isn't just because of their reasoning capability, but it's also because of, like, the sheer quantity of information that they store. And I think here there's a little bit less of that, you know, and I think it's more ab…”
Jeremy Wohlwend Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 36:47 🔬Generating Molecules, Not Just Models
Mar 14, 2026 positive
Insight
Colvin: LLMs are 100x faster under four specific engineering conditions
“My take is that there are four, four things where if you can cover all four of these things, LLMs are not like three X faster or five X faster. They're like a hundred X faster.”
Samuel Colvin Mar 14, 2026 ▶ 11:41 ⚡️Monty: the ultrafast Python interpreter by Agents for Agents — Samuel Colvin, Pydantic
Mar 20, 2026 negative
Opinion
Singleton: LLMs lack out-of-the-box taste, creativity, and a sense of individuality
“Taste, creativity, sense of individuality is still something that I think that the LLMs are not producing out of the box. And I think that's going to be an interesting frontier.”
David Singleton Mar 20, 2026 ▶ 1:01:59 Dreamer: the Agent OS for Everyone — David Singleton
Apr 3, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Andreessen: Recursive self-improvement and three other AI breakthroughs are actively working
“So the way I think about it is we've had four fundamental breakthroughs in functionality, LLMs, reasoning agents and then and then now RSI and they're all actually working.”
Marc Andreessen Apr 3, 2026 ▶ 11:33 Marc Andreessen introspects on Death of the Browser, Pi + OpenClaw, and Why "This Time Is Different"
May 5, 2026 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2046
Interactive LLMs Will Replace Static Scientific Papers Within 20 Years
“If you ask me, would I be confident that in 20 years we'll have these sort of like static documents in which we publish our results as papers? I would think not. Like that doesn't seem like the best thing we could be doing. Maybe some kind of interactive paper…”
Alex Lupsasca May 5, 2026 ▶ 1:25:27 🔬How GPT‑5 derived new results in theoretical physics and quantum gravity — Alex Lupsasca, OpenAI
Jun 1, 2026 positive
Opinion
Ethan He: Long context management in video models leads LLM context work
“I feel this is actually, this part of long contacts is a little bit ahead of the LLM part.”
Ethan He Jun 1, 2026 ▶ 1:03:42 Inside xAI: Building Grok Imagine in 3 Months, Videogen vs World Models, and Video Agents— Ethan He
Jun 2, 2026 positive
Insight
Daigle: LLMs are most valuable for retrospective workflow analysis
“I find AI in like what most of this like launch here is, is actually like less building forward. It's actually like. A recursive loop backwards. I'm always looking at what had happened first, like go back through the week and tell me what we did, what worked, …”
Kyle Daigle Jun 2, 2026 ▶ 7:01 GitHub’s Agent Era: 14x Commits, 200M Developers, Copilot’s Next Act — Kyle Daigle
Jun 6, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Awais: Deterministic tool repair with hints fixes model tool-calling loops
“What we saw is the moment you send the result with the repair logic, right after that, the third tool call is fixed. Instead of, you know, it all of a sudden becomes super smart. It understands like, okay, I got the result, what I was looking for, and I'm gonn…”
Ahmad Awais Jun 6, 2026 ▶ 11:04 ⚡️Making DeepSeek v4 outperform Opus 4.7 with Taste — @AhmadAwais , CommandCode.ai
Jun 6, 2026 positive
Insight
Awais: Forcing LLMs to use OKLCH significantly improves color palette control
“I personally don't use OKLCH, but apparently LLMs are really good at it. And if you see them using HSL or something, they are, they don't actually are able to control the lightness in HSL very quickly, but on to human eye, it's very, very easy to see like this…”
Ahmad Awais Jun 6, 2026 ▶ 20:43 ⚡️Making DeepSeek v4 outperform Opus 4.7 with Taste — @AhmadAwais , CommandCode.ai
Jun 6, 2026 positive
Insight
Awais: Reducing tool call errors enables LLMs to sustain longer exploration
“Like if they are seeing a lot less tool call errors, they're much more creative. They are, they can explore a lot and they can continue a lot longer.”
Ahmad Awais Jun 6, 2026 ▶ 15:23 ⚡️Making DeepSeek v4 outperform Opus 4.7 with Taste — @AhmadAwais , CommandCode.ai
Jun 30, 2026 positive
Insight
Yudinov: Crystal structures can become a native modality for LLMs
“Or you can even train a model which is able to natively understand crystal structure representation, and like image modality is a modality for LLMs these days. Crystal structure can be a modality for LLMs as well.”
Sergei Yudinov Jun 30, 2026 ▶ 1:33:12 🔬 "The Most Innovative Diffusion Research Is Happening in Drug Discovery, Not Image Generation"
Jul 8, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bubna: Batch compute demand comes mainly from non-LLM workloads like computational biology
“The demand that we see for something like that is actually not for LLMs. Although sometimes people want to run evals and do synthetic data prep and there it makes sense. But it's from a lot of non LLM companies like people who are doing computational bio, like…”
Akshat Bubna Jul 8, 2026 ▶ 41:15 The Future of AI Infra: from Kubernetes to Agent Sandboxes — Akshat Bubna, Modal CTO
Jul 10, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Swyx: LLMs will plateau and potentially trigger a 30-year AI winter
“Yeah, probably LLMs are going to run out at some point and they're not AGI and okay, we have maybe another 30 years of AI winter or something and then like the next paradigm really is actually the thing.”
Shawn Wang Jul 10, 2026 ▶ 15:39 Podcast Crossover: AIE, AGI, frontier lab strategy with ​ ⁨@matthew_berman⁩ and @swyxtv
Aug 11, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Patil: Biomolecular AI models will be as massive and impactful as LLMs
“And, you know, I think this class of models is going to be like just as big, just as impactful as LLMs, but it's almost like the compute market, like kind of doesn't realize that yet, both in the capacity sense, but also in like the software stack sense.”
Neil Patil Aug 11, 2026 ▶ 1:03:48 🔬They Thought the Model Was Broken — Matt McPartlon & Neil Patil, Chai Discovery
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