foundation model

also referred to as: foundation models

28 statements across 23 episodes · 13 bullish · 7 bearish · 23 people on the record · first statement Oct 21, 2023 by Kanjun Qiu · across every show →

Everything said about foundation model, oldest first

Oct 21, 2023 negative
Insight
Qiu: Models lack reasoning because the internet lacks explicit reasoning data
“And models today, they're not optimized for reasoning. It turns out that there's not actually that much explicit reasoning data on the internet.”
Kanjun Qiu Oct 21, 2023 ▶ 13:03 Why AI Agents Don't Work (yet) - with Kanjun Qiu of Imbue
Oct 21, 2023 positive
Disclosure
Qiu: Imbue generates specific reasoning data rather than relying on web data
“So I think internally, yeah, we have a lot of thoughts on what reasoning is, and we generate a lot more specific data. We're not just like, oh, it'll figure out reasoning from this black box or like, it'll figure out reasoning from the data that, that exists.”
Kanjun Qiu Oct 21, 2023 ▶ 33:45 Why AI Agents Don't Work (yet) - with Kanjun Qiu of Imbue
Oct 21, 2023 bullish
Insight
Qiu: Code is the most explicit reasoning curriculum for AI models
“Code is the most explicit example of reasoning data on the internet. Yeah. And it's not only structured, it's actually very explicit, which is nice. You know, it says this variable means this and then it uses this variable and then the function does this. Like…”
Kanjun Qiu Oct 21, 2023 ▶ 36:16 Why AI Agents Don't Work (yet) - with Kanjun Qiu of Imbue
Jan 2, 2024 bearish
Opinion
Doshi: Image Generative AI Is Stuck in a 'GPT-2 Moment'
“So I think that we continue to feel like graphics and these foundation models for anything really related to pixels, but also definitely images continues to be very under invested. It feels a little like graphics is in like this GPT two moment, right? Like eve…”
Suhail Doshi Jan 2, 2024 ▶ 18:07 The AI-First Graphics Editor - with Suhail Doshi of Playground AI
Feb 8, 2024 negative
Opinion
Prakash: Foundation models lack data moats and are constrained by capital
“There aren't really big data moats around foundation models. They are built from a subset of the web. What is difficult is the cost of capital to build these, and what, one of the ways in which you can reduce this cost is by making more efficient systems.”
Vipul Ved Prakash Feb 8, 2024 ▶ 7:48 Building an open AI company - with Ce and Vipul of Together AI
Mar 27, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Luan: Future AI value will shift from base models to agents
“In a world where foundation models are looking more and more commodity. And if, and I think a huge amount of gain is going to happen from how do you use foundation models as like the, like well learned behavioral cloner to go solve agents.”
David Luan Mar 27, 2024 ▶ 23:50 Why Google failed to make GPT-3 -- with David Luan of Adept
Apr 11, 2024 neutral
Disclosure
Stuhlmüller: Elicit builds scaffolding rather than training foundation models
“The way we are building Elicit is not let's train a foundation model to do more stuff. It's like let's build a scaffolding such that we can deploy powerful models to good ends.”
Andreas Stuhlmüller Apr 11, 2024 ▶ 11:20 Supervise the Process of AI Research — with Jungwon Byun and Andreas Stuhlmüller of Elicit
Jun 11, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Conover: Economic incentives to pre-train commodity foundation models from scratch are diminishing
“The incentives, the economic incentives for companies to train their own foundation models, I think, are diminishing. So the, like, window in which you are the dominant pre-train, and let's say that you spend five to forty million dollars, you know, for like a…”
Mike Conover Jun 11, 2024 ▶ 58:37 How AI is Eating Finance - with Mike Conover of Brightwave
Jun 25, 2024
Disclosure
Albrecht: Imbue will not release model weights, but will open-source training tools
“We're not releasing the model. We're not releasing the weights, but we are releasing a bunch of different things that should make it easier for other people to make their own models.”
Josh Albrecht Jun 25, 2024 ▶ 6:28 State of the Art: Training 70B LLMs on 10,000 H100 clusters
Aug 17, 2024 negative
Opinion
Howard: Tech builds too many vanity foundation models over fine-tuning
“People are building too many vanity foundation models rather than taking better advantage of fine-tuning”
Jeremy Howard Aug 17, 2024 ▶ 25:06 Answer.ai & AI Magic with Jeremy Howard
Dec 2, 2024 neutral
Insight
Simons: Base AI models provide a 10x lift; agent scaffolding adds 3-4x
“The model is like this sort of like 10 X multiplier. You're, how good the bottom line model is, huge, huge swing. And then kind of what you can do on top of that, you can squeeze out three, four X kind of more. And so that's kind of where the realm of, you kno…”
Eric Simons Dec 2, 2024 ▶ 1:03:09 0 to over $8M ARR in 2 months as a Claude Wrapper (Bolt.new, Qodo)
Feb 11, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Startups Cannot Profitably Pre-Train Foundation Models Due to Massive Compute Costs
“I think the idea that a company can make money sort of pre-training a foundation model is probably not true. It's hard to, you're competing with just you know, unreasonably large capex budgets.”
Bret Taylor Feb 11, 2025 ▶ 23:30 The AI Architect: Bret Taylor
Sep 23, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2026
Bachman: Big Foundation Models Will Train on Power Retention Within a Year
“After that, I think, you know, probably within six months to a year, we're going to start to see the really big foundation models being trained in this way.”
Diego Bachman Sep 23, 2025 ▶ 28:28 ⚡️ Beyond Transformers with Power Retention
Oct 11, 2025 positive
Insight
Lenz: Training foundation models mirrors developing algorithmic trading strategies
“So, so it's very similar in terms of how you interpret results. You want to treat everything as a black box. You want to establish your bounds, you know, what are you, and I've had tons of experience in algotrading, both from making money and not making money …”
Barak Lenz Oct 11, 2025 ▶ 25:52 Building Jamba 3B: the tiny Hybrid Transformer State Space Reasoning Model - Barak Lenz, CTO of AI21
Oct 18, 2025 positive
Insight
Alex Shaw: Base model selection matters much more than agent frameworks
“And if you look at the difference between the same model and the biggest spread across agent frameworks versus the same agent framework and the biggest spread across models, It's much larger across models, which I think goes to show that like improving models …”
Alex Shaw Oct 18, 2025 ▶ 23:51 Terminal-Bench: Pushing Claude Code, OpenAI Codex, Factory Droid, et al to the limits
Oct 30, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Sands: Stripe runs domain foundation models with sub-100ms latency on charges
“Then you have a foundation model. Each, you know, charge becomes this like dense embedding. You start to see these Clusters sort of pop out and, you know, in real time that they're card testing and you can block them. So yes, it is happening on the charge path…”
Emily Glassberg Sands Oct 30, 2025 ▶ 5:55 The Agents Economy Backbone - with Emily Glassberg Sands, Head of Data & AI at Stripe
Oct 30, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sands: AI Agents Will Make Fraud Decisions Within Six Months
“Now you can think about, okay, actually foundation model, text alignment, like human readable description of like why we're worried about this charge. And then today, a human tomorrow, an agent sitting on top of that and decisioning, like reasoning over The mo…”
Emily Glassberg Sands Oct 30, 2025 ▶ 32:00 The Agents Economy Backbone - with Emily Glassberg Sands, Head of Data & AI at Stripe
Jan 28, 2026 bullish
Disclosure
White: FutureHouse bypassed custom foundation models to focus on scientific agents
“For example, at future house, we took the opinion that scientific agents are the future, and that allows us to skip a lot of steps because a lot of other people were like, we need to build a foundation model for X. Yeah. And we just skipped all that.”
Andrew White Jan 28, 2026 ▶ 1:07:32 🔬 From Red Teaming GPT-4 to Automating Drug Discovery: The Future of AI in Science — Andrew White
Mar 24, 2026 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Unnamed materials foundation model is only 5x faster than DFT and unreliable
“It's only in my hands the one I'm still not naming is only about five times faster than my fastest DFT calculation on a GPU, and it also doesn't work all the time.”
Heather Kulik Mar 24, 2026 ▶ 20:32 🔬There Is No AlphaFold for Materials — AI for Materials Discovery with Heather Kulik
May 2, 2026 neutral
Insight
AI model switching costs remain non-zero due to fragile harness optimizations
“People keep saying like the cost of switching between models is zero. It's cheap, but it's not zero because sometimes you like spend, you know, three, four months, like fine tuning exactly how the model should be, or like how the, Product should be. And then o…”
Yasser Elsaid May 2, 2026 ▶ 17:13 ⚡️ Competing with ChatGPT and Sierra, building a $10M ARR company — Yasser Elsaid, Founder, Chatbase
Jun 3, 2026 neutral
Insight
Nadella: Enterprise AI control requires private evals to switch underlying models safely
“Like, so in other words, another asset test is, you have an eval that's private. You're using a model A. Can you switch it to model B and, you know, climb up? If you can, then you're in control. If you can't, you're not in control.”
Satya Nadella Jun 3, 2026 ▶ 12:41 Satya Nadella on AI: @NoPriorsPodcast x Latent Space Crossover Special at Microsoft Build 2026
Jun 17, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Krause: Science will experience a foundation model breakthrough within 2-3 years
“I think we're going to have that for science over the next two to three years. I do. Once discoveries start coming out and this field continues to mature even more.”
Joseph Krause Jun 17, 2026 ▶ 1:00:25 🔬 The Limits of AI in Science - Why We Need Self-Driving Labs — Joseph Krause, Radical AI
Jul 21, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wang: Foundation models on causal data will beat linear baselines
“I believe that foundation model or other more complicated AI models that trend on the right data will outperform these linear models in harder tasks, particularly in generalization tasks.”
Bo Wang Jul 21, 2026 ▶ 1:04:25 🔬Causal Models Need Causal Data - Xaira’s X-Cell model (Bo Wang & Ci Chu)
Jul 21, 2026 neutral
Opinion
Wang: Virtual cells are a much broader concept than foundation models
“What's happening for this field is that we are lacking a concrete definition of virtual cells and people almost equate foundation model With virtual cell, but in my view, virtual cell is probably a much broader concept than just foundation models.”
Bo Wang Jul 21, 2026 ▶ 19:13 🔬Causal Models Need Causal Data - Xaira’s X-Cell model (Bo Wang & Ci Chu)
Jul 22, 2026 neutral
Insight
Kant: Pre-training compute runs are not the expensive part of AI
“The training run is not the expensive part. The training run is a very anticlimactic event, right?”
Eiso Kant Jul 22, 2026 ▶ 1:20:58 The AI Frontier: from open weights to open research — Eiso Kant, Poolside AI
Aug 21, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Park: Future simulations will cost as much to run as training models
“My hunch here is I do think in the next Some number of years, we will start creating simulations that will actually cost as much as training a foundation model.”
Joon Sung Park Aug 21, 2026 ▶ 49:58 Simulating Humanity: from Generative Agents to 8 Billion Digital Twins — Joon Sung Park, Simile AI
Aug 21, 2026 bullish
Insight
Park: LLMs Trained on Web Data Can Accurately Simulate Human Behavior
“These models are actually trained on this very broad data from the web, right? So these are human behavioral data. It's the, it's social media, Wikipedia, all these kind of data. So if you poke At the right angle, then you could see human behavior that would j…”
Joon Sung Park Aug 21, 2026 ▶ 5:48 Simulating Humanity: from Generative Agents to 8 Billion Digital Twins — Joon Sung Park, Simile AI
Aug 26, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
AI has foundation models for language and vision but not physics
“Because we have foundation models for language, maybe vision, but not for physics. So, you know, the idea is instead of like right now what we've seen are narrow surrogates and we're trying to broaden their scope more and more, but ideally we have much broader…”
Anima Anandkumar Aug 26, 2026 ▶ 1:12:57 🔬 Why Transformers Hit a Wall the Moment Physics Shows Up — Anima Anandkumar, Caltech
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