The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,118 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Brockman: Elon, Sam, Ilya, and I Agreed OpenAI Needed For-Profit Structure
“Elon, Sam, Ilya, and I all agreed. That the only path forward for OpenAI, the only path to achieve the mission, was to create a for-profit entity associated with OpenAI of some form. And so we were committed to that direction, and that is something that we kne…”
Sinclair: Research shows cellular epigenetic aging damage can be reversed
“And what we've discovered is that there are ways to, well, we discovered one of the main causes of scratches, that's broken chromosomes, which happens all the time in our bodies. Extreme cell damage also does that if we crush nerves. But we've also figured out…”
Brockman: OpenAI models recently resolved an open quantum physics problem
“If you look at math and physics, we now are solving open math problems. We're solving Open physics problems and actually have resolved this particular physics problem recently in quantum physics in the opposite way that the community expected.”
Poilievre: Canada's 3% Population Growth Outpaces 1% Housing and Healthcare Growth
“The liberals have been bringing in a million people a year, growing our population almost three percent while our housing stock grows by one percent. Our job market grows by about the same and our availability of doctors and nurses grows by about That one or t…”
Poilievre: Canada gave Stellantis $15B while Stellantis cut Canadian jobs
“And we've seen it with the Stellantis deal, where we're in for fifteen billion dollars, and Stellantis is cutting jobs in Canada. Fifteen billion dollars for one company. That works out to almost a thousand dollars for every Canadian family in taxes for a comp…”
Dick's Destroyed $5M in Guns and Accepted $250M Annual Sales Loss
“After Parkland in 2018, where the shooter had bought a shotgun at Dix, Ed made a decision that would cost at least two hundred and fifty million dollars annually. No more assault rifles. No firearms to anyone under 21. They destroyed five million dollars in ex…”
Deel planted a spy at Rippling who tried to flush their phone
“Like in the tech world, we're seeing a very interesting story play out between Rippling and Deal, which are these two payroll processors, and Deal planting a spy, and the spy, like, running into the bathroom, and then trying to flush a phone.”
Johnson: 70% of therapists treating couples lack actual couples therapy training
“Because the fact of the matter is, 70% of mental health professionals in North America say they seek Couples now, because the demand is huge, and most of those people have not been trained in couples therapy.”
Poilievre: University of Ottawa Hired Convicted Paris Terrorist as Professor
“The University of Ottawa had hired a guy as a professor who had committed a terrorist attack in Paris before he came to Canada.”
Poilievre: Bill C-75 mandates releasing accused under least onerous conditions
“Bill C-seventy-five is the liberal bail law, and it requires judges release the accused under, quote, the earliest opportunity under the least onerous conditions.”
Wolfe: AI will generate full feature films without actors or crew
“One of our companies, Runway ML, you can, and there's others that you can conjure. Today it's 10 seconds, but tomorrow it'll be two minutes, and full feature films with no key grips, no lighting, no costume design, no set design, no actors, and voices entirely…”
Research Disproves the Claim That Yelling Causes Children Lifelong Trauma
“This is their idea that anything we do to get, anytime you yell at a kid that can traumatize a kid, that injury, emotional injury can be with them for a lifetime. It's not true. It's not what the best research has shown”
Studies Show Kids Excluded From Social-Emotional Learning Have Lower Anxiety
“Researchers in Australia and England actually tested this, separate groups of researchers, and they were able to show that the kids in the control group who didn't go through these practices ended up happier, better adjusted, better in, in terms of depression …”
NIMH Protocols Exclude Parents While Asking 8-Year-Olds About Suicide
“And it was created by our National Institute of Mental Health. This is a federal government agency, and they decided, and this is part of the protocol, kids age eight and up, they asked the parents to leave, and then they asked the children five escalating que…”
CDC Research Shows Normalizing Suicide Discussions Increases Youth Suicide
“The CDC has great research on this, which is that if you present, if you normalize suicide with kids, if you present it as a means of coping with distress, you know, basically telegraphing, this is something other kids are doing. When they feel sad, you consta…”
Sinclair: Data Shows Carnivore Diet Does Not Promote Long-Term Longevity
“I'm convinced and the data shows it from population studies that a carnivorous diet isn't a longevity producing diet in the long run, right?”
Huberman: 1mg Melatonin Is ~100x Natural Secretion and Suppresses Puberty
“What you take in terms of one milligram melatonin, very small dosage, something like a hundred times what you naturally secrete. I get really concerned about this, especially in kids because melatonin is actually the hormone that suppresses the onset of pubert…”
Zurbuchen: Avoidable James Webb Space Telescope mistakes cost taxpayers $800 million
“During that time, as well as the year before, this team was so, had such challenges that it was making mistakes that cost the taxpayer of the United States, eight hundred million dollars. The mistakes themselves cost six hundred million dollars because of lack…”
Barrett: No universal physical signature exists for any studied emotion
“In fact, there is no universal physical signature for any emotion that's ever been studied.”
Kahneman: Income above $70,000 raises life satisfaction but not emotional happiness
“The research I did with Angus Deaton at Princeton, famous economist, we showed that in terms of happiness, in terms of emotional tone, positive and negative, Having a lot of money doesn't make you happier, but being poor makes you miserable. So that's above a …”
Kahneman: Some evidence cited in 'Thinking, Fast and Slow' has been discredited
“There's been a replication crisis in psychology. And some of the stuff that I really believed in when I wrote Thinking Fast and Slow, some of that evidence has been discredited.”
Johnson: 70% of North American therapists see couples without specialized training
“The fact of the matter is, 70% of mental health professionals in North America Say they see couples now, because the demand is huge, and most of those people have not been trained in couples therapy.”
Haidt: A child would wait 700,000 years in a car before abduction
“There are about a hundred people, a hundred kids abducted a year in the United States by strangers. At present rates of abduction, you'd have to leave your kid alone in a car in a parking lot for 700,000 years before they would probably be abducted.”
Markham: Children face higher abuse risks when an unrelated male moves in
“When a new man comes on the scene in a child's life, a new man is now with their mother, their risk of being abused or in fact being killed in childhood goes up.”
Gawande: Spinal surgery for pain provides no average benefit at nine months
“In, ah, back surgery, we have a bunch of studies showing that when you do back surgery for pain, spinal, spinal surgery for pain as opposed for, as opposed to for neurological symptoms where you have actual nerve damage. But when it's for pain, the average peo…”
Oakley: Research Shows Visual and Auditory Learning Styles Are Scientifically Groundless
“There was a excellent study done by a woman named Beth Rogoski and what she did was she took one of the standard tests to kind of analyze a very widely used test that is used to distinguish an individual as to whether they're a visual learner or an auditory le…”
Type 2 Diabetes Is Reversible Without Drugs via Low-Carb Diets
“Even type two diabetes was irreversible. Once on insulin, always on insulin, basically, until you get taken down by the side effects. And now people are showing that on these diets, and maybe others as well, but they're showing that this is a reversible diseas…”
Gurley: QQQ has probably beaten 80% to 90% of VC funds
“Some people have even highlighted the fact that, you know, QQQ has probably outperformed 80 or 90% of venture funds.”
The World Bank Advised Against Building South Korea's Gyeongbu Expressway
“The World Bank told the Korean government the project was economically and technologically infeasible and would add little to Korea's development.”
Korean Business Leaders Paid 500 Million Won Bi-Annually to President Park
“He and other major Korean business leaders had been making regular payments to Korean presidents as a matter of routine, For decades. Under Park Chung-hee, it was roughly five hundred million won twice a year.”
Liemandt: Median US Student's Test Score Stagnates From Eighth Grade to Graduation
“The average kid in the US, like on this map score, this NWA map, there's a 300 point scale. If you take, I can't remember exact number but if you take an eighth grader, they will go up one point by senior year. How is that even possible? The median, that's the…”
Liemandt: Harvard study shows AI tutors outperform top Harvard teachers 2x
“Harvard published a paper that That their best teaching class is their physics one-on-one class, one of their best, you know, teachers, and they did an A-B test with AI tutors versus them, and they published that Harvard, you know, there's a great paper, Harva…”
Tenev: Harmonic solved at least one unsolved Erdős problem
“There's something like 1100 Erdos problems. About half of them are open unsolved. And yeah, Harmonic solved at least one of them.”
Tenev: Harmonic surpassed Google AlphaProof's capabilities within one year
“Alpha Proof was the first AI model to get a silver medal, to achieve silver medal performance at the IMO last year.
But Alpha Proof they did not announce a gold this year.
So, yeah, we were we were, the Harmonic team was excited about that, that, you know, i…”
Poilievre: 2.2 Million Canadians Use Food Banks as Scurvy Returns
“I find it appalling that we had 2.2 million people lined up at food banks, that we got a return of scurvy in Canada, or one in four kids are going to school hungry.”
Wozniak: Jobs hid thousands in Atari bonus money for Breakout design
“Woz writes, the whole thing used 45 chips, and Steve paid me half the 700 bucks he said they paid him. They were paying us based on how few chips I could do it in. Later I found out he got paid a bit more for it. Like a few thousand dollars than he said at the…”
Evans: Kodak was once the best-selling US digital camera vendor
“What actually happens is, once it starts happening, Kodak go all in on digital cameras. At one point, they were the best-selling digital camera vendor in the USA, and if you look at their annual ports at the time, they think this is going to be great, because …”
Kahneman: Incomes above $70,000 boost life satisfaction but not emotional happiness
“The research I did with Angus Deaton at Princeton, famous economist, we showed that in terms of happiness, in terms of emotional tone, positive and negative, Having a lot of money doesn't make you happier, but being poor makes you miserable. So, that's above a…”
Gil: Over half of biology research in top journals is not reproducible
“If you look at it, about half or more than half of all biology research in top journals is not reproducible.”
Gil: 80% to 90% of AI market cap is in the Bay Area
“If you look at AI, it's like, 80 to 90% of the market cap is all in the Bay Area.”
Tan: 50% of YC companies raise Series A, 25% after year 5
“About half of companies that go through YC will end up raising a series A. That's, you know, much higher than any other pre-seed or seed sort of situation that I know of. But about, A quarter of those who raise the Series A, they do it in year five or later.”
Poilievre cites $500 billion net capital outflow to the US over decade
“In the last 10 years, there's been a net outflow of five hundred billion dollars of investment to the U.S. From Canada, and that's partly because our taxes are extremely high.”
Wolfe: US SOCOM drone operations require legal authorization for strike ratios
“In the Pacific region with SOCOM, and there's a drone operator who's flying the drone, there's another drone operator who's piloting the weapon system, and there's two lawyers. So, they're helping the commander who is effectively given, like, a godshot of, you…”
Wolfe: 38% of US AI researchers are from China
“In our own country, in the United States, 38% of researchers in AI are from China.”
Patrick: Low Omega-3 levels have a comparable mortality impact to smoking
“When you look at smokers with a high omega-three index, they have the same life expectancy as non-smokers with a low omega-three index. In other words, smoking was like having low omega-three, or having a low omega-three index was like smoking.”
Doucleff: SF parents give 120 verbal inputs hourly versus 2-3 traditionally
“In places where children have autonomy, parents give children, like, two to three verbal inputs in an hour. And I've done it on myself, I've done it with parents in San Francisco, and we are talking about, like, a 120 verbal inputs per hour.”