The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 20 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Patel: Large-scale protests against AI will occur within three months
“And this is just the beginning, so I think we'll see large-scale protests against AI in three months.”
Vishria: AI will yield an oligopoly and multiple $100B specialized winners
“So it's just, it feels to me like we're gonna end up with an oligopoly Of winners, and there will be, I really believe they will be these, like, hundred billion dollar crazy smaller winners and so, like, that's, you know, that's, like, that just feels like tha…”
Patel: Robotics few-shot learning breakthroughs will arrive in 6 to 18 months
“And so I think in the next six to 18 months, we'll start seeing real breakthroughs in robotics that enable few shot learning, i.e. There's a pre-trained robot model, and now there's a robot that you have hired or bought or whatever. You showed a few examples a…”
Carnell: Upcoming data will show GLP-1s protect against addictive behaviors
“In terms of the addiction data that'll start coming out over the next year or so, you would lose that benefit. Like you would lose the, essentially the free gift of protecting yourself from being addicted to drugs, alcohol, or gambling. And that comes from the…”
AI pre-training scaling laws will continue for at least one more generation
“And we now know they're going to continue for pre-training for at least one more generation, and we're very early in the two new scaling laws, you know, for post-training, mid-training, RLVR, whatever people want to call it, and then test time computed inferen…”
Patel: OpenAI ARR Will Reach $20 Billion by Year-End
“Your revenue is like fifteen billion ARR this month, maybe, right, on a run rate basis. It'll get to 20 by the end of the year pretty, pretty clearly. Maybe it's like 16 now, but how do you pay three hundred billion dollars of revenue?”
Patel: AI Models Will Monetize by Taking a Cut on User Purchases
“The models are going to purchase for you, right? They're going to do actions for you and the model, and then the company that does those actions for you, the model that will be able to take some sort of take rate, right? Even if it's like .1%, even if it's one…”
Patel: xAI Will Build Biggest Data Center but Trail Big Tech Compute
“XAI can get to the next stage of compute. They won't have more compute than OpenAI. They won't have more compute than any individual company at Google, Meta, et cetera, but they will have the biggest individual data center”
Liemandt: Alpha will launch a homeschool product delivering 2x learning next year
“And so I believe next year we will have a homeschool version that somebody will be able to buy. The kids can be able to sit down and deliver two X in two hours for sure.”
Liemandt: AI-native companies will dwarf historical SaaS valuations
“AI native companies are going to be worth more than any SAS company ever has been.”
Milgram: 2025 Business Bankruptcies Will Remain High or Increase
“Based on the data we see to date and the bankruptcies that we've already seen in 2025, we would expect 2025 to show persistent and possibly higher number of business bankruptcy filings.”
Gurley predicts 4-5 consumer AI companion startups will emerge within a year
“It's not That difficult for me to imagine exactly what played out in her, which was an unbelievable movie for its time, by the way. But like, I think that will happen. Like, I would be shocked if you don't see four or five companies pop up in the next year.”
Kushner: Trump presidency will likely reduce Iran's oil sales
“And with Trump coming in, there's a super high probability that their ability to sell oil in the future is going to go down.”
Matt Smith: US LNG exports scheduled to hit 35 BCF daily by 2030
“As of today, we're scheduled to export up to 35 BCF a day by the end of 2030. And in that case, the dye has been mostly cast.”
Khosrowshahi expects Uber robotaxi pilots in London by year-end
“And I think we will have pilots, for example, in London before the end of the year.”
xAI will provide the intelligence module for Tesla's Optimus humanoid robots
“XAI, Will be the intelligence module for Optimus made by Tesla with Tesla vision has its, you know, perception system.”
Wang: Half of cars sold in China will be electric in 2025
“At this point, by the end of this year, one out of every two cars sold in China will be electric”
Consumer tech products will increasingly tier pricing based on AI inference volume
“It's very likely that some consumers are going to want tons and tons of inference. And because that's a marginal cost, you're probably going to have to pay somehow for that as a consumer. So I think you're going to see more tiering of consumer products based o…”