why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
James Park says the original Apple Watch did not impact Fitbit
“If you looked at the Apple Watch that was announced at that time, I think everyone will admit, maybe even Apple, that it was a product that didn't quite know what it was supposed to be used for. So, with the launch of the first Apple Watch, I don't really thin…”
Opinion
Ahmed: Tracking step count does not measure actual physiological stress
“I didn't think that steps answered anything about the strain recovery equation that we talked about before, which is to say that How much, you know, stress you're actually putting on your body is a different question than how much you've moved your arm.”
Insight
Ahmed: The wearables market is plagued by poor long-term user retention
“The wearables industry, just to say it, is a market that's been plagued by engagement, which is to say someone buys a Fitbit, and then three weeks or three months later, it's in a drawer.”
Assertion Supported
Fitbit's accidental public sex-tracking feature stemmed from a government database
“Well, it was a category, but it wasn't something that we had realized. So we used this database from the government that was like thousands of different activities that people would do. And so it was an option. We just didn't think people would log in.”
Insight
Public valuations remove the breathing room needed to fix operational crises
“As a private company, Despite challenges, your valuation doesn't change very often. It only changes when you raise money, which could happen once a year, once every two years. So if you hit a bump in the road, your employees don't really feel it. We had a prod…”
Assertion Supported
Fitbit's tracker revenue plummeted by $800 million shortly after its peak
“In a period, in a very short period of time, our tracker business fell by eight hundred million dollars in, in revenue. And, you know, at the time, at our peak, we were doing about 2.1 billion. In revenue. So, we had an eight hundred million dollar hold.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Fitbit received 2,000 pre-orders the day of its TechCrunch debut
“And so we got off stage, and by the end of the day, we had about 2000 pre-orders.”
Assertion Supported
Fitbit accumulated 25,000 pre-orders at $100 per unit by summer 2009
“I think By the summertime, we had about 25,000 pre-orders at a hundred dollars per unit.”
Insight
Fitbit's community features drove viral word-of-mouth growth among families
“I think the primary reason is
You know, cause we had baked in this social element, this community element into it from the very beginning.
It ended up being a very viral product.
so one family member would get it and to really realize the potential, you know,…”
Assertion Supported
Fitbit demoed its first product using a balsa wood prototype
“That, that was the prototype, and actually that was what we had demoed when we first announced the company. That was the prototype that was actually being used at the announcement.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Fitbit pitched 39 venture capitalists before securing its first funding
“I remember, you know, we had a spreadsheet of target VCs. I think there are 40 names that we put on that list. And literally we went to number 40 before we were able to raise money.”
Disclosure
Fitbit targeted a 50 percent gross margin and $50 total unit cost
“I think we were trying to shoot for a gross margin of about 50%. So we're targeting You know, the full cost of the product, including shipping, et cetera, being no more than 50 dollars. So that's what we're targeting.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
James Park tracked over 34.6 million steps since Fitbit's first prototype
“34,642,772. That is how many steps James has tracked since he first put on that balsa wood Fitbit prototype, at least as of this recording. That's about 15,430 miles, or 24,832 kilometers.”
Opinion
Traditional pedometers lacked consumer appeal because they resembled medical devices
“One of the things, though, is that they weren't something that people would want to use or to wear. They were very big. They were pretty ugly. They look like medical devices.”