Emmett Shear

Co-founder and CEO, Softmax · 1 appearance on the record.

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founderexecutiveinvestor@eshear ↗LinkedIn ↗softmax.com ↗Wikipedia ↗Instagram ↗

Emmett Shear is the co-founder and former CEO of Twitch, which he led through its acquisition by Amazon. He also briefly served as interim CEO of OpenAI and currently leads AI startup Softmax.

21statements → 11claims → 7claims resolved → 86%fully supported → 3.81/5average certainty → 1.67/5average debate potential → ≈4.5/5argument clarity, estimated → 7said about them ↓

6 supported 0 partly supported 1 contradicted 4 not checkable as stated how the 11 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

11 assertions · 10 insights · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 11 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 7 are resolved, and 4 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Emmett argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported
Shear: Kiko built Google Calendar roughly a year before Google did
“Basically, we built Google Calendar roughly a year before Google Calendar was released.”
Emmett Shear Jul 18, 2022 ▶ 11:02 Twitch: Emmett Shear

Their most notable contradicted claim

Assertion Contradicted
Shear: Justin.tv reached 50 to 60 million monthly users around 2010
“I think, 50, sixty million a month.”
Emmett Shear Jul 18, 2022 ▶ 42:36 Twitch: Emmett Shear

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

none yet certainty 1
none yet certainty 2
50% certainty 3
100% certainty 4
none yet certainty 5

weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet

How they sound: not measured why? →

We measure speaking style by listening to the audio itself, and a fair number needs at least 2,000 words from one person on tape we have measured. There is too little of Emmett Shear on measured tape to publish a rate. This says nothing about how they speak.

Everything Emmett Shear said on How I Built This that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Insight
Shear: Enterprise software requires good enough product and great sales to win
“It's not building great, beautiful software to win. It's building good enough software and great sales.”
Emmett Shear Jul 18, 2022 ▶ 45:14 Twitch: Emmett Shear
Insight
Shear: Game streaming acts as marketing; movie streaming is substitution
“Watching a movie for free on a service instead of buying the movie to watch it is a substitution for what you're doing. But watching someone else play a game is actually marketing for the game.”
Emmett Shear Jul 18, 2022 ▶ 1:00:49 Twitch: Emmett Shear
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Shear: Twitch pitched 40 venture capital firms and every single one passed
“We talked to 40 VCs, everyone turned us down.”
Emmett Shear Jul 18, 2022 ▶ 1:01:56 Twitch: Emmett Shear
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Shear: Twitch revenue relies on mid-sized streamers, not top-tier channels
“What's interesting about Twitch is we actually have this very thriving middle class, because big streams monetize much more poorly per viewer than medium-sized streams do. And so there's this, most of the money actually gets made Not in the top tier of streame…”
Emmett Shear Jul 18, 2022 ▶ 1:07:00 Twitch: Emmett Shear
Insight
Shear: Content cannot go viral on Twitch because broadcasts are ephemeral
“Unlike most social media, You can't really go viral on Twitch. It's almost, because it's live, it can't go, you can't get to, oh my god, look at this, millions of people see it. It's like, however many people saw it, it's over.”
Emmett Shear Jul 18, 2022 ▶ 1:15:05 Twitch: Emmett Shear
Assertion Supported
Shear: Kiko built Google Calendar roughly a year before Google did
“Basically, we built Google Calendar roughly a year before Google Calendar was released.”
Emmett Shear Jul 18, 2022 ▶ 11:02 Twitch: Emmett Shear
Insight
Shear: Great founders neither rebel nor acquiesce when challenged
“I think what YC is looking for is people who can communicate clearly, but most of all, people who, when they're challenged, they neither rebel nor acquiesce. And I think that's a, that's one of the most important traits in startup founders, actually.”
Emmett Shear Jul 18, 2022 ▶ 14:43 Twitch: Emmett Shear
Insight
Shear: Early-stage angel investors should back strong teams with bad ideas
“In the beginning, the investable asset is not the idea and it's not the execution and it's not the research or whatever. The investable asset is the founders. And you're much better off investing in a good team that has no idea what they're doing or there was …”
Emmett Shear Jul 18, 2022 ▶ 24:40 Twitch: Emmett Shear
Insight
Shear: Viewers prefer direct chat interaction over point-of-view activities
“Actually, one of the big things we discovered was, almost immediately, people liked him taking off the camera and talking to them more than they liked almost anything he could be doing. If he was doing something really interesting, like he's taking a trapeze l…”
Emmett Shear Jul 18, 2022 ▶ 30:21 Twitch: Emmett Shear
Insight
Shear: Handling swatting incidents off-camera reduced streamer harassment
“We had the fire trucks called, and even if the fire trucks had showed up, we would deal with it off camera so that there wasn't a reward for the person doing it. And that it definitely over time Cut down on the amount of harassment we experienced.”
Emmett Shear Jul 18, 2022 ▶ 33:51 Twitch: Emmett Shear
Insight
Shear: Justin.tv succeeded because the founders built for their own streamer needs
“I think Justin TV worked to some degree because our actual customer was the streamer. And because we were trying to build something that worked for us as a streamer we built something that actually worked because we deeply understood the needs of our customers…”
Emmett Shear Jul 18, 2022 ▶ 36:00 Twitch: Emmett Shear
Assertion Supported
Shear: Justin.tv hit $1M annualized profit run rate in six months
“And six months later, we'd, we'd gotten to a million dollars a year of run, you know, a 100,000 dollars a month of profit.”
Emmett Shear Jul 18, 2022 ▶ 41:38 Twitch: Emmett Shear
Insight
Shear: Persistent founders in Silicon Valley eventually find luck and success
“I've now been around the valley for 15 years, and I came here with a bunch of people who started making companies, and I don't know anyone who persisted and tried again and then tried a new thing and then tried again Who hasn't had some level of success. Event…”
Emmett Shear Jul 18, 2022 ▶ 1:19:37 Twitch: Emmett Shear
Insight
Shear: College offers unmatched intellectual capital access at the lowest opportunity cost
“He looked around in college and he said specifically, not that we should start a company, but we have better access to intellectual capital today than we ever will in the future at a lower opportunity cost. And so we should take advantage of that, which means …”
Emmett Shear Jul 18, 2022 ▶ 7:41 Twitch: Emmett Shear
Assertion Supported
Shear: Kiko Sold on eBay for $265,000 After 13 Bids
“It was on eBay. I believe 265,000 dollars was the winning bid. 13 bidders.”
Emmett Shear Jul 18, 2022 ▶ 19:26 Twitch: Emmett Shear
Assertion Contradicted
Shear: Justin.tv reached 50 to 60 million monthly users around 2010
“I think, 50, sixty million a month.”
Emmett Shear Jul 18, 2022 ▶ 42:36 Twitch: Emmett Shear
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Shear: In 2011, just 200 streamers drove 80% of gaming viewership
“There were about 200 people who are streaming video games across every service, including ours, who garnered maybe 80% of the total audience at the time.”
Emmett Shear Jul 18, 2022 ▶ 52:25 Twitch: Emmett Shear
Assertion Supported
Shear: Ustream Had More Gaming and Was Bigger Than Justin.tv in 2011
“Ustream was a live streaming competitor. They had more gaming and they were bigger than us.”
Emmett Shear Jul 18, 2022 ▶ 52:49 Twitch: Emmett Shear
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Shear: Justin.tv gaming grew 25-30% monthly for nine months before Twitch launch
“We'd been growing at 25%, 30% a month for Almost nine months before we ever launched Twitch.”
Emmett Shear Jul 18, 2022 ▶ 57:38 Twitch: Emmett Shear
Assertion Supported
Shear: Twitch's final funding round before Amazon was valued at $100M
“The last round we raised had been a hundred million dollar valuation, not that long ago, a year ago, year and a half ago.”
Emmett Shear Jul 18, 2022 ▶ 1:17:08 Twitch: Emmett Shear
Assertion Supported
Shear: Inaugural YC interviews lasted 40 minutes instead of modern 10 minutes
“The original YC was heavy on, like, show us a demo, and interviews are now 10 minutes. At the time, you've got 40 minutes per Per interview.”
Emmett Shear Jul 18, 2022 ▶ 13:43 Twitch: Emmett Shear

The other half of the tape: Emmett Shear's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 7 times in 2 episodes on How I Built This. every mention, with the transcript →

Who brings them up most Guy Raz 3Kyle Vogt 2Hamish McKenzie 2

Every mention by year

tap a year for its mentions
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0112022202320242025episodes it came up in
002.50.5512022202320242025episodesmentions per episode
2025 2 mentions in 1 episode
2022 5 mentions in 1 episode

Appearances (1)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
Twitch: Emmett Shear Jul 18, 2022 48m
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