The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 30 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Biden: The US Will Bring an End to Nord Stream 2
“There will be no longer a North Stream Two. We will bring an end to it.”
Das: Congress will preserve parts of IRA with a scalpel approach
“And so because of the direct connections between the clean energy investments that are happening and the locations in the country and where, where that's happening, I think we're going to see Some continuation of IRA. And we've heard this phrase thrown around,…”
Munster: Foreign Electrolyzers Will Reach Half the Cost of Western Units
“At some point, those foreign electrolyzers are going to cost, installed, half the price that ours do, because we're not moving down the cost curve while they are.”
Davis: Only 50 GW of 120 GW announced US capacity will materialize
“Again, like I said, we don't anticipate all of that. 120 gigawatts of module manufacturing is going to get built. We expect it'll be more like, you know, 50 or so over the next you know, four or five years.”
Pending project approvals could quadruple US LNG export capacity
“There's a whole wave of new proposals Coming after that that, if this administration approves, could even quadruple LNG from where we are today.”
The Biden administration will likely pause new LNG export permits
“So I think having signed that Dubai declaration They're probably sending a signal that they're getting ready to do this right thing on this biggest single challenge that they face.”
McKibben predicts the Biden administration will reject the CP2 export license
“That's why I'm pretty sure that the Biden administration will see reason and say, we're not going to approve.”
Naam: Odds of limiting global warming to 1.5°C are minuscule
“But the bad news is we have missed 1.5 degrees C, and I don't know how to say this anymore clearly, because there are people that will tell you that we might hit it. The odds of that are minuscule.”
Lott: Up to 17 states tied to California rules may ban gas cars
“New York is also banning gas-powered car sales by twenty-thirty-five, and soon, as many as 17 other states, like Washington and Massachusetts, which currently have vehicle emissions standards tied to California's, may follow suit.”
Noel: Weaning off Russian gas will accelerate European decarbonization
“So, whatever is done to win ourselves off Russian natural gas will be leveraged to accelerate our decarbonization objectives. In that sense, it's positive. Governments in Europe will be empowered, potentially dramatically so, to accelerate the transformation o…”
Hamilton: Stalled climate bill is 'just a flesh wound' and will pass
“Absolutely. I am. It is just a flesh wound. This bill will get over the finish line.”
Bhargava: Individual AI data centers will add 1.5 gigawatts of load
“Data centers are going to get real hairy. It is going to be a lot of load coming on very, very, very quickly, and the power sector has not dealt with that much load that quickly when you've got a gigawatt and a half, you know data center coming online, and tha…”
Sekine: Global battery manufacturing overcapacity will worsen through 2025
“If we are to simply look at the overall capacity that's expected to come online based on company announcements between now and 2025, that factor that I mentioned three X of battery capacity relative to demand today or in 2023, that actually becomes worse over …”
Hamilton: Treasury Will Likely Retain 45V Three Pillars Hydrogen Framework
“I suspect they will. I suspect that they will simply come up with ways in which you can use existing resources at certain times to be able to qualify so that you really are getting clean, green hydrogen and you're not leaving plants that are, that aren't reall…”
RMI: Global battery capacity will reach 9 TWh annually by 2030
“They Are estimating that there's going to be global capacity of nine terawatt hours of batteries, lithium ion batteries per year by 2030. That's a kilowatt hour for every person on the planet. And they are estimating that just those batteries will surpass the …”
2030 green hydrogen goals would consume 16% of new renewables
“If about a 20 millimetric tons or so of clean hydrogen are produced globally by the end of the decade, And we got to about 16% of all the renewables we expect to deploy this decade will just go to the production of hydrogen.”
Francetic: Mandatory climate disclosure regulation is still coming to the US
“We knew these disclosures and this regulation was coming, because we could see what was happening in Europe, and we could see that this pressure that was being placed globally on big investors to try to disclose this was gaining momentum in the U.S., even thou…”
Florida will ask Washington to pay for disaster recovery, and likely succeed
“And now, of course, we see the consequences, and the consequences will be Florida's gonna put its hand out and ask Washington, D.C. To pay for all this, and probably they will.”
Grunwald: Ocean wild fish catches cannot expand beyond current levels
“There's no way we're gonna get more fish from the ocean than we're getting now. You know, at best, we can sustain it.”
Natale: Permafrost thaw will reach 30% to 70% by 2100
“There's a, there's an Kind of a range of possibilities for how much permafrost will thaw, say, by 2100, and number of different, based on a number of different models, but the range always stays somewhere between 30 to 70%, something like that, and I think abo…”
Gard-Murray: Heat pump incentives will save consumers $27 billion over a decade
“Over the next decade, we project that a conversion incentive like the one we wrote about would save consumers twenty seven billion dollars.”
Graphitic Energy's single pilot will provide all required commercial scale-up data
“We feel really confident that that will give us all the scale-up data we need. It isn't a, well, we built this pilot because this is what we could kind of get done, and then we kind of have to go build a second one that goes and de-risks these other things. It…”
Eggers predicts climate VCs will back core AI companies within three years
“I'd be surprised if we and EIP and others like us don't have in two or three years at least a couple of companies who have, you know, an AI co-pilot or something where AI is the core offering of what they're doing.”
Davis: Solar module prices will start to rise slightly by 2025
“And so by, you know, 20, 25 or so, we do anticipate that the pricing will start to go up a little bit more. Not a whole lot. But basically 20, 24 should be the floor for some of those module prices.”
Davis: Solar manufacturing will shift predominantly to N-type modules by 2028
“So we're going to witness over the course of the next three, four years A pretty big shift from mostly P-type modules, which is just, you know, a cell technology that's mostly the older technology, to predominantly N-type modules, and particularly technologies…”
Lacey: Solar and wind will constitute ~92% of 2030 renewable additions
“So solar is probably going to make up about two-thirds of the target here, and solar is just the least cost resource in many areas of the world, so it will continue to dominate. Solar and wind together will make up about 92% of this tripling target, but solar …”
The US will have multiple industrial-scale clean hydrogen plants within three years
“It seems like we're about to cross this line from there really being no industrial-scale clean hydrogen production in the U.S. To there being a bunch in the next two, three years even.”
Proposed manufacturing can meet hundreds of gigawatts of demand by 2030
“In terms of, if you look at the supply chain we think there's enough proposed electrolyzer manufacturing capacity and proposals to do, build more electrolyzers that you could supply all those few hundred gigawatts of electrolyzers by the end of the decade if a…”