The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 290 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 59 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Biden: The US Will Bring an End to Nord Stream 2
“There will be no longer a North Stream Two. We will bring an end to it.”
Needham: CFS will demonstrate commercial net energy gain by 2027
“We're building a plant just about an hour west of here that in 2027 will show net energy gain in a commercially relevant architecture.”
Planned US LNG expansion would surpass Europe's total greenhouse gas emissions
“If we let it go all the way that the LNG industry wants, Soon enough, American LNG exports will be producing more greenhouse gas emissions than everything that goes on in Europe.”
US emissions with LNG exports could surpass 2005 levels by 2030
“We could actually be looking at being above 2005 emission levels by 20 30 and beyond when you count in the export emissions that we're producing.”
Wesoff: Ultra-cheap solar and storage may make advanced nuclear concepts obsolete
“We're gonna have amazingly cheap, abundant solar. Combined with storage, we may not need all of these advanced energy ideas.”
Kimber: US Grid Transmission Issues Will Not Get Fixed
“No one has the incentive to actually fix the problem, and that's why it won't get fixed.”
Del Chiaro: PG&E's $55 monthly fixed charge will disincentivize solar
“PG&E now proposing 55 dollar a month fixed charge on all residential customers. Every single month, it will disincentivize efficiency and conservation and solar energy”
Biden: The World Will Need Oil for at Least Another Decade
“I said, we're going to need oil for at least another decade, and that's going to exceed... And beyond that, we're gonna need it.”
Friedman: Climate governance will see Article 6 completely collapse
“I think we will begin to see new laws and new protocols, everything from the revisions to the London Convention of the Sea to Article VI's complete collapse and dissolution.”
Paruri: All-perovskite tandems could achieve 60% to 70% efficiency
“And over time, you can engineer out the silicon, and you're just doing perovskite on perovskite on perovskite tandems, You can get to 60 or 70% efficiency.”
Dutta: Harbinger will reach ICE cost parity without subsidies by 2026
“And Harbinger by next year will be at cost parity with ICE trucks without any tax credits.”
Kairos aims to cut reactor capital costs by 50% across seven builds
“We see the ability in, in just those first essentially seven reactors, like dramatically bringing down the capital costs you know, 40, 50% is possible, and then we're staged for the second half of the twenty-thirties to scale from there”
Needham: First commercial CFS fusion plant will launch in early 2030s
“Early 20 thirties. That means probably within a few, not 2030, but probably within a few years of 2030.”
Shah: Trump payment freezes will increase energy costs and private uncertainty
“But yet, I think that the actions that they're taking around freezing payments and some of the other things are going to lead to higher costs and a lot more uncertainty in the private sector, right?”
Shah: Trump administration will roll back wind and solar pauses to avoid blackouts
“I think they're going to be forced to pull it back too, just because it's 90% of everything that gets deployed in the grid, right? And so at some point, if none of that stuff gets deployed in the grid, we're going to have rolling blackouts.”
Shah: Trump's DOE will honor all closed and obligated LPO loans
“But like, for closed loans and loans that have obligated funds, I think they'll honor all those loans.”
Jigar Shah: Battery storage additions will be tenfold natural gas deployments
“Battery storage will be heralded as the savior of the grid a year from now, and we will deploy 10 times as much battery storage as we deploy natural gas.”
Das: Congress will preserve parts of IRA with a scalpel approach
“And so because of the direct connections between the clean energy investments that are happening and the locations in the country and where, where that's happening, I think we're going to see Some continuation of IRA. And we've heard this phrase thrown around,…”
Shah: Annual electricity load growth will likely be around 2.5%, not 7%
“I don't think we're going to have seven percent load growth every year. I think it's probably more like two and a half percent, but it's still something that we don't have the tools to deal with right now.”
Beebe: Big Tech will build gas plants for AI, delaying climate goals
“The latest version of that that I'm very worried about is large tech companies acknowledging, hey, you know, we're not going to lose this AI thing. I think they're going to blame it on China and say, hey, it's a national security. Security thing we can't lose,…”
Beebe: Geothermal can power AI data centers in 3-4 years vs 10 for SMRs
“Building de novo facilities to power either clusters or giga sites for massive data centers, I think is going to be much, much harder, and they're going to try with small modular reactors, that's a ten-year kind of process, but doing it with geothermal, I thin…”
Beebe: Internal combustion fleet residual values will plummet, impacting insurers
“I'm watching residual values of internal combustion fleets because I think they're going to plummet. I think that's going to have an impact on lease companies. I think it's going to have an impact on insurance companies.”
Orthofer: Max 30% of abatement needs commercially viable by late 2030s
“Despite sort of huge cost down historically and projected, we will not get to more than 20 or 30% of all abatement needs being sort of fully in the money or fully sort of commercially mature by the end of the 20 thirties, which I guess is a rather, was for me …”
Orthofer: Green hydrogen cost parity delayed 5 to 8 years past 2030
“If I look back at our forecast from 20 20, for when we would achieve cost parity between green hydrogen and grey hydrogen, we said this would be by the end of this decade. I think by now we've moved that out by five to eight years, depending on geography, just…”
Janus: 2x more efficient AI chips will lead tech giants to deploy 2x more chips
“And, you know, I had someone ask me the other day, well, what happens if, you know, if NVIDIA comes out with a chip that's twice as efficient? And my response to that is, well, then Meta or Microsoft or Google will plug in twice as many chips. If they have the…”
Janus: Utilities Can Meet Load Growth Without Heavy Natural Gas Buildout
“I think we can. I think there is a lot of levers that we have at our disposal, you know, and I have, I've had empathy for my friends in the southeast. I know that they're under a lot of pressure, and I know that, you know, they, they're at the tip of the spear…”
Belizaire: Batch computing will quickly consume more energy than real-time compute
“If you look at the whole pie of the types of compute that's out there the batchable portion is growing faster than the rest, and it's become, it will quickly become a larger portion of the over, overall pie, and it will quickly have more energy demands than th…”
Janus: Advanced nuclear and fusion will not solve grid problems this decade
“They're not solving any problems this decade, right? That is a 20 thirties and probably a late 20 thirties. Opportunity.”
Eggers: Power sector will miss load growth without faster gas buildout
“So that's going to have to change or go much faster. We're just not going to meet that load growth.”
Domenech: The IRA will fail without bipartisan permitting reform
“There is a massive permitting backlog and the IRA is never going to be, you know, quote unquote successful. The Biden policies aren't going to be quote unquote successful unless there's a bipartisan investment in, in moving those permitting policies forward.”
Domenech: IRA risks Republican targeting unless Chinese subsidy access is fixed
“When you have somebody like on the left, Senator Joe Manchin, who made the IRA possible, pushing back aggressively against the Biden administration in terms of how they've implemented the law, concerns about
You know, foreign companies, Chinese companies that …”
Domenech: Trump will pivot DOE Loan Programs Office rather than eliminate it
“I don't think that the Trump administration immediately comes in and reflexively never uses the loan program again. I do think that the projects that they pick to invest in might be different. You might see a heavier investment on nuclear, for example. Hydroge…”
O'Donnell: Path is clear to decarbonize industrial heat within 15 years
“We see the path clear with what we're doing to decarbonize most of that within about 15 years, given the constraints on how fast wind and solar can be built, and there aren't meaningful production constraints on the brick materials that we use.”
O'Donnell: Intermittent renewable power will economically eclipse fossil fuels globally by 2030
“By 20 30 in most of the industrialized world, the conditions that exist in the six European countries where we're developing projects now in Australia and the half dozen US states, those market conditions exist in most of the industrialized world that you can …”
Munster: Many Hydrogen Projects Past FID Will Cancel Under 45V
“I would expect that a significant number of projects that have hit FID are no longer going to move forward, he said. They're looking at redesigning their system, downscaling their system, or canceling the project entirely.”
Munster: Foreign Electrolyzers Will Reach Half the Cost of Western Units
“At some point, those foreign electrolyzers are going to cost, installed, half the price that ours do, because we're not moving down the cost curve while they are.”
Munster: US green hydrogen ecosystem will not arrive before 2030
“We're not going to be there until twenty-thirty at least. And it's questionable we'll ever get there with the trajectory we're on now.”
Palazzi: AI emissions reduction benefits will far outweigh data center power demands
“So I generally think that we should proceed with the technology innovations that we're seeing. And in fact, we may not really have the full control over not doing so. And that the advances that we will get in emission reduction and energy consumption reduction…”
Janis: Electricity supply, not GPU shortages, will bottleneck AI growth
“We'll find a way to make more chips. There's a lot of capital in that space. I, I'm more concerned about can the electrons keep up with the growth.”
Janis: Grid bottlenecks will prevent data centers from doubling energy use quickly
“I'm skeptical that we're actually going to achieve that growth rate without some significant movement in terms of how fast we're investing in grid infrastructure.”
Cotton: Recycled lithium content will reach 80% to 90% in decades
“More and more recycling infrastructure gets built. We get closer and closer and migrate from that less than one percent to 80 to 90%, just like what lead has shown us. And it's really only a couple decades of recycling, so it'll happen fairly quickly.”
Mulholland: Room-temperature superconductors will require new physics
“My prediction is that it will require at least a variant on known physics, if not entirely new physics, to make happen, just because that's sort of the nature of those massive breakthroughs, especially, I mean, room temperature superconductor is, A guaranteed …”
Kra: Commercial grid fusion will not arrive before 2035 to 2040
“In twenty-thirty-five and twenty-forty, we're probably going to see some there in that range. We might see a first commercial reactor producing electrons onto the grid, but I think before that, it's all going to be, if we do well, it's going to be pilots and d…”
Davis: Solar will make up 40% of US generating capacity by 2050
“According to our outlooks, by twenty-fifty, 40% of the generating capacity, just like electricity generating capacity in, in the U.S. Will be solar.”
Davis: Solar will basically be the energy industry in two decades
“Solar is not just sort of one of the fastest growing, most important renewable energy technologies. It's one of the fastest growing, most important energy technologies, period. Like it will be basically The energy industry in the next couple of decades. Like, …”
Davis: Global solar growth rates to slow, remaining flat in China
“But then, you know, this year and next year we're sort of hitting, we're kind of like hitting past that inflection point and growth rates are actually going to slow in many different markets. China being one of them. So growth's actually flat over the next sev…”
Davis: China will maintain solar manufacturing dominance despite global factory buildouts
“Even if all the different announcements, whether in China or in the rest of the world, come to fruition, the share that China makes up isn't really going to change that much. Like, maybe a couple percentage points as other Countries around the globe build out …”