why aren't all 88 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Contradicted
Hickenlooper: House reconciliation bill proposed taxing all wind and solar energy
“The House bill came over and it had a tax on all wind energy and solar energy. So no, no longer are we going to give them tax credits, but we're going to, you know, we're going to tax them.”
Assertion Contradicted
Shah: Wildfire costs account for only 3-5% of PG&E rate hikes
“You know, what amounts to, I think, 15% rate increases every year for the last four years for PG&E because of uncontrolled distribution grade investments, and it's not wildfire related. Let's just be crystal clear. People call it wildfire. Three to four percen…”
Assertion Contradicted
Eighty percent of data center power consumption comes from cooling
“These new data centers that are so power hungry, where 80% of the power that they use comes from cooling”
Assertion Contradicted
Garabedian: Large-scale green hydrogen is not bankable today
“Large scale green hydrogen is not bankable today.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Jigar Shah: Battery storage additions will be tenfold natural gas deployments
“Battery storage will be heralded as the savior of the grid a year from now, and we will deploy 10 times as much battery storage as we deploy natural gas.”
Assertion Contradicted
Woolard: California regulators tried to halt Ivanpah over a tarp's color
“We happened to have a brown cover to that temporary, 18 month manufacturing facility, and the CEC, California Energy Commission tried to stop all construction, which basically would have killed the project, because the color of the tarp was not the right color…”
Assertion Contradicted
Beebe: Zanskar has proven a 90% hit rate for exploratory geothermal wells
“Today, when we do, when we drill wells looking for geothermal, we'll drill 10 wells and get one hot spot. And that's not cost effective. Those wells are very expensive. With Zanskar, they have been proven that they can drill 10 wells and get 90% hit rates, and…”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Janus: Advanced nuclear and fusion will not solve grid problems this decade
“They're not solving any problems this decade, right? That is a 20 thirties and probably a late 20 thirties. Opportunity.”
Assertion Contradicted
Domenech: US emissions declined as fast under Trump as Biden
“Well, emissions declined at about the same rate under Trump as they have under Biden. In fact, they declined more in the first two years than they did under Biden. And a lot of that was driven by U.S. Natural gas.”
Assertion Contradicted
Ramanathan: Average AI usage carries the environmental impact of five cars
“Average use of AI, so not like building deep fakes, but just like, you know drafting emails, that kind of thing that I, you know, I think everyone will be doing soon enough. That kind of average use has because of the computing demand involved, has the environ…”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Del Chiaro: California's electricity load will at least double from electrification
“We anticipate our electricity load is going to at least double just from our electrification initiatives in the next couple of years, and that's not counting any kind of impact climate change has on electricity consumption.”
Assertion Contradicted
Senator Becker: Oil lobby is the top donor to California's legislature
“So the number one contributor to the state legislature is the Western States petroleum initiative, right? By far.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Tomlinson: New firming requirements will definitely slow Texas renewable investment
“This is going to be really expensive. It's also going to be highly political because we don't know yet what the PUC will assign to different facilities, but it will definitely slow down new investment in Texas, renewable energy.”
Assertion Contradicted
Tomlinson: Texas is the only state where pipelines own in-pipe gas
“Texas is the only state in the country where pipelines get to own the gas inside the pipeline, and it allows pipeline generators to manipulate prices.”
Assertion Contradicted
Iseman: Make Sunsets received FAA clearance and a NOTAM for launch
“So we got, got clearance by the FAA. Like, we just got issued a NOTAM.”
Assertion Contradicted
Shah: US Solar and Wind Have Not Yet Saved a Gigaton of Carbon
“Even the solar and wind industry in the United States today hasn't saved a gigaton of carbon. Right? For all of the, like, you know, this is amazing, it's fully mature, it has not saved a gigaton of carbon.”
Assertion Contradicted
Shah: Almost No Hydrogen Investment in Past Year Came From Oil and Gas
“When you look at the investment that's been made over the last 12 months in hydrogen, almost none of it is from the oil and gas industry.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Mark Fields: Ford intended to launch Level 4 vehicles by 2021
“It remains our intention to introduce a fully autonomous level four vehicle into the marketplace in 2021 in mobility services.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Mitrova: Europe faces wartime energy rationing and physical shortages this winter
“And in the wartime, the economy is mobilized, and the decisions are made by the governments, not by the free market. So this is the case for Europe this winter, and there will be lots of very difficult and painful choices on which industries, which groups of c…”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Mitrova: EU oil embargo will likely reduce Russian exports by only 10-15%
“In the longer term, as the EU is implementing its oil embargo, and with all these constraints on insurance and shipping, There will be definitely some effect to limited extent. So we are probably talking about 10, 15% decline in the Russian oil exports and cor…”
Assertion Contradicted
Lovins: Global peak fossil fuel use almost certainly occurred in 2019
“The result is that peak fossil fuel almost certainly occurred in 2019, globally.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lovins: Russia's war will push global fossil fuel use into steep decline
“Putin's war really puts the last nails in that coffin, turning what was usually forecast as a bumpy plateau of fossil fuel use for most of the rest of this decade into a steep decline.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lovins: European Purchases Of Russian Natural Gas Will Disappear By 2023
“It now looks like the purchases of Russian gas will be cut by two-thirds this year alone, and probably be gone by Next summer, at latest, next autumn”
Assertion Contradicted
Promethean applied for 600,000 tons of methane-reduction CO₂ credits
“Where we are getting the CO₂ credits is reduced methane from the cows because the feed that we provide them and the production dramatically reduces the methane that's coming out of the cows. So in we applied for 600,000 tons of CO₂ credits, and we expect that …”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Jigar Shah: 2025 EV sales will surpass 2024 levels
“I think that we'll have more EV sales in 25 than we had in twenty-twenty-four.”
Assertion Contradicted
Shah: Unused oil and gas public land permits can convert to geothermal
“All unused oil and gas permits on public lands can automatically be converted into geothermal.”
Assertion Contradicted
Groarke: Utility operations and maintenance costs are rising 40% annually
“O&M in the utility sector generally going up 40% per year per utility.”
Assertion Contradicted
Cotton: Under 1% of materials in new lithium batteries are recycled
“And if you contrast that today to a new lithium battery that you get regardless of the application, whether it's an EV or a piece of consumer electronics, et cetera that has under one percent of the recycled lithium, nickel, or cobalt in that new battery. It a…”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Davis: Chinese solar module prices will floor at 12-15 cents in 2024
“Well, in terms of pricing trends just for Chinese modules, we do expect some further declines throughout twenty-twenty-four. Depending on what module technology you're talking about modules can be, you know, 15 to 18 cents, and we expect that they might go dow…”
Assertion Contradicted
Utility sector faces first electricity demand growth since air conditioning invention
“The truth is, suddenly, the utility industry is going from 40 years of flat and declining load to the first growth moment since the air conditioning unit was invented.”
Assertion Contradicted
Tomlinson: A Texas bill proposed banning all future renewable energy development
“Well, I mean, there was one bill to ban all future renewable energy development.”
Assertion Contradicted
Slenk: Modesto City Schools placed the largest US electric bus order
“At his new job with Modesto City School District, he's ordered the largest ever single order for electric school buses in the country.”
Assertion Contradicted
Nichols: Battery-powered planes are already delivering freight between US airports
“There already are battery-powered airplanes that are making deliveries between small airports you know, in this country.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Shah: Li-Cycle Rochester plant will produce 8,500 tons of lithium carbonate
“Life cycle in Rochester, New York will produce 8500 tons of lithium carbonate once it's fully scaled up. To put that in perspective, the United States as a whole produces 5000 tons per year. It'll be the single, single largest producer of lithium carbonate in …”
Assertion Contradicted
Haspel: Annual household gas stove emissions equal driving 42 miles
“If you look at the amount of greenhouse gases from your stove, and you compare it to driving your car, your yearly stove use is going to be about the equivalent of driving 42 miles in an average car.”
Assertion Contradicted
Kimber: Industrial steam generation accounts for 20% of global carbon emissions
“You've got 20% of global carbon emissions that come from essentially boiling water to do things like make, you know, everything from consumer packaged goods and, you know cardboard packaging to, you know, drying food.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Hamilton: Democrats will pass climate legislation by March 2022
“The optimistic take for me is January, maybe February. I don't think we're going to go much beyond March, certainly. And they're so close that I think it wouldn't take long at all to get this over the finish line in the month of January once they resolve some …”
Assertion Contradicted
Pinkowski: Nitricity closed an almost $10M USDA Rural Development loan
“The other thing we then went for is a USDA Rural Development loan, and we worked through the process there, and I'm very proud to say that that is closed, and so that was an almost ten million dollar Rural Development loan.”
Assertion Contradicted
Woolard: BrightSource's power tower design cut solar thermal costs by ~40%
“It reduced, it was about a 40% cost reduction from the design alone.”
Assertion Contradicted
Woolard: Ivanpah operates at roughly 90% of its design capacity
“Ivanpah had some awkward parts ramping up, but ultimately delivered and ramps and produces power and energy today at about 90% of its original design capacity.”
Assertion Contradicted
Shah: Most US Geothermal Power Plants Only Achieve 60% Uptime
“Most geothermal units in the country right now only have 60% uptime.”
Assertion Contradicted
Shah: LMI consumers buy $4B in appliances monthly via high-interest debt
“LMI customers buy roughly four billion dollars worth of household appliances a month. And usually because it's an emergency, they have to put it on their credit card or have a payday loan for it at 30% interest, right?”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Beebe: Lilium is one to two years from commercial flight
“I think they are, let's say, a year or two away from human and commercial flight.”
Assertion Contradicted
Groarke: Google estimates AI drives 15% of its load growth
“Google estimates that 15% of their load growth is going to be AI or is AI right now, right?”
Assertion Contradicted
AquaMetals CEO: Operating commercial-scale hydrometallurgical recycling is in China
“The hydro processes that are up and running at any scale are happening in China.”
Assertion Contradicted
Sekine: $100B+ committed to US EV and battery supply chains in 2023
“Even though last year we saw a record number of, like, commitments towards clean energy supply chains in general in the US,
Most of which were for EVs EVs and batteries, so about more than a hundred billion dollars committed towards EV and batteries supply cha…”
Assertion Contradicted
Lacey: DOE pause on LNG export approvals is unprecedented in department history
“It's the first time the DOE has ever done this”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Davis: The United States solar market will grow 10% in 2024
“So in 2024, overall, we're forecasting that the U.S. Market is going to grow 10%.”