The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,220 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 6 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Glyman: AI tooling will reduce functional sub-specialization in companies
“In a world where, you know, someone who develops the product can use technologies that helps them sell more effectively, that helps them track That helps them track outreach, that helps them write with a better pitch on the first go, and these are real tools t…”
Glyman: Open-weight models match frontier AI within six months at 1% cost
“What we've observed is about six months after the latest and greatest model comes out, you'll have an open weight model that is just as good and maybe costs, right, one 100th to go and use it”
Glyman: AI research labs are Ramp's most comparable competitors
“In some sense, it is a form of knowledge, work, and intelligence that we are serving and servicing for you, and I think that labs are, in some sense, the most comparable provider of this type of service.”
Ross: Replace one-on-ones and private emails with open communication to eliminate politics
“And so when you are leading groups of people, if you want to reduce the amount of politics and people going off and, you know, forming side cliques and all this, stop having one-on-ones, have big meetings with everyone who you want to tell something and tell t…”
Ross: Putting excess capital into startups no longer provides an advantage
“What's changed though is that unlike the Keynesian beauty contest where the winner is the one with the most money, in reality, there's a point at which you get enough money and you don't need more. And for the first time in history, the startups are not starve…”
Ross: Splitting LLM pre-fill and generation across different chips is a mistake
“What we realized was, and this is what most people get wrong when they're trying to do this themselves. They'll, they'll take the reading of tokens or what's called pre-fill, and they'll do that on one piece of hardware, and then they'll put the generation of …”
Ross: Faster inference compute directly makes AI models smarter
“Now bring in the LPU, and you can go deeper, faster, you can search faster, and so you can actually make a model smarter by making it faster. And so the realization is, and now that you've got this ability to reflect, think deeply, and change the outcome based…”
Ross: Hiring requires vetting negatives rather than searching for positive traits
“The biggest flip in my hiring was when I went from looking for positives, which is what you do when you're trying to grow talent, to looking for negatives, which is what you do when you're trying to select talent.”
Ross: Marginal cost of software code is approaching zero
“What I'm seeing is that code is becoming almost free. It's, it, the marginal cost is approaching zero.”
Scott Wu predicts humans will soon stop interacting directly with code
“We're not always, I mean, we're not gonna be interacting with code for that much longer, you know, or programs might not be the right, like level of abstraction, but I think what is always true probably is that it will be the human computer interface.”
Engineering teams using Devin ship software ten times faster
“And in practice, what it looks like is that teams use Devon to ship 10 times faster and to do 10 times more.”
Scott Wu predicts intent-to-execution AI development will be solved in five years
“But I honestly, I mean, I think we'll have solved most of that over the next five years or so.”
Scott Wu predicts AI systems will eventually work unassisted for a year
“And yeah, I think that's true, and I think we will get there.”
Scott Wu confirms initial Devin launch videos were real, unstaged runs
“All of those like demos that we showed, you know, in, in, in our launch announcement were like actual runs of Devon that we had done ourselves and like run into and been like, holy shit, this is insane.”
Scott Wu admits AI agents did not work generally during early deployments
“Let's be real here, ok? Agents did not work generally, ok? And so, there was a lot of like, how do you make it work for you very specific?”
Stoute: Cultural taste, not ethnicity, drives consumer music purchases
“The music business taught me that The idea that people listen to certain records had nothing to do with their ethnicity. DMX was selling in Iowa. The radio station in Iowa didn't play DMX. Where Eminem was being played, was being purchased in Harlem. It had no…”
Stoute: Black consumers are the world's best by buying unmarketed goods
“Black consumers are the best consumers in the world. Because they buy products that aren't marketed to them.”
Stoute: A direct-to-fan creator data platform will emerge within three years
“The next evolution of this in the next three years, I have to be able to go direct, and I have to be able to collect that fan data. I want to send out the newsletter. I want to send out the fan, the sort of correspondence. Like, it's the platform you own. I no…”
Stoute: Independent music has outgrown major labels in frontline new release market share
“So I guess the good news out of all of this, since we started United Masses, is that the independent music space, and there's a lot of us, have outgrown on the front line The major labels. So if you talk about new releases, market share, the independents have …”
Steve Jobs Was Excluded From Pixar's Braintrust Due to His Overwhelming Presence
“Steve had such a powerful voice that it didn't matter when he spoke,
Ed Catmull: He was going to have this extremely strong effect on the dynamics of the room, and he understood that.
Ed Catmull: So, it was the reason he didn't come.
Ed Catmull: I said, you…”
Steve Jobs Never Gave Film Notes That Others Had Not Already Voiced
“There was nothing that Steve ever said that had not been said by some of the, somebody else before in one of those meetings.”
Steve Jobs Transformed His Leadership Style Between 1991 and 1995
“What people didn't understand, and I think they didn't know, was that years of 91 to 95 was when Steve made this major transformation.”
Söderström: Spotify's biggest product risk is shipping its org chart to users
“Because we have a single experience strategy, our strategy is literally a super app. We try to build first music, then podcasts, and books, and more things into a single product. I think our biggest risk is to ship the org chart. So if we divide it and say, ev…”
Söderström: Functional orgs dissolve into politics without long-tenured executive trust
“The only answer I've come to as I've spoken to people there is that it actually has to do with tenure of leadership, which is one of the principles I've also tried to internalize Spotify. So they have very long tenure at the senior leadership, which means that…”
Söderström: Internal surveys show users regret 60% of time on rival platforms
“Without naming which ones on many of the big platforms, people, people regretted almost 60% of the time they spent or more.”
Söderström: Steve Jobs tried to kill Spotify many times
“This is the Spotify story of access versus, versus ownership, for example, which is, by the way, why I would also love Steve Jobs to be around, but also not because, you know, he tried to kill us many times.”
Söderström: Apple internally gave Spotify six months to survive Beats acquisition
“That's what they literally said in their internal meetings. They gave us six months.”
Rubin: Lack of recording expertise preserved authentic early hip-hop sound
“The fact that I didn't know what I was doing allowed it to be true to what hip hop was. Whereas all of the records that were coming out, the few and far between, 12 inch singles every few weeks, they were made by professionals who made other kinds of music. Th…”
ZMC Executed a Hostile Takeover of Take-Two Without Personal Capital
“The way we did this deal has never happened before, and I'm pretty certain it will never happen again, because we essentially did a hostile takeover with no money.”
Studio Systems are Economically Superior to Talent-Auction Boutique Systems
“A boutique system is generally bad and a studio system is generally good or can be good. The studio system was long gone. And studio system means your creative talent. All your talent is on the payroll. Boutique system is they're not on your payroll. They can …”
Bobby Kotick Created the Most Value in Pure-Play Gaming
“I would argue that, I mean, for pure play, probably Bobby Kotak has with Activision.”
Grand Theft Auto is the Most Valuable Entertainment IP Ever Created
“I think if you counted every, like, Mario Kart and Call of Duty and a bunch of others, it's not entirely clear, but I think in terms of the value of the IP, most people believe it's the most valuable entertainment IP ever created.”
Purely Data-Driven AI Cannot Generate Entertainment Hits
“Clones don't sell. All hits are by their very nature unexpected. That's the most important thing to take away. Things that are data driven in their entirety can't be unexpected.”
White: Philippe Dauman Was One of the Biggest Brand Killers Ever
“That guy ended up being one of the biggest brand killers of all time. Oh, Phil Duman MTV fucking, you know, think about all the Viacom Legendary networks they had that this guy had sucked the life out of and killed.”
White: UFC Live Event Production Is a "100% Dictatorship" Under Me
“There is no committee here. There is no whatever. This is a dictatorship. 100% of dictatorship. And. I'm listening to how loud the music is, if it's loud enough, if it's not, and things are happening in-house, and I'm watching what's happening on TV. All of th…”
White: Showtime Boxing Had the Most "Dog Shit Production Ever"
“And I fucking thought that Showtime was the most dog shit production ever. In boxing.”
White: TKO Will Build the Biggest Combat Sports Company in History
“We're gonna build The biggest combat sports company to ever exist. And that will probably ever exist. That's my goal in the next 10 years.”
White: UFC Fight Island Was the Only True Sports Bubble During COVID
“It was the only true bubble that existed in sports at that time. All the other ones were bullshit.”
White: Reporters Covering the UFC Are Zeros Who Have Accomplished Nothing
“These guys who report on what we're doing that have no clue what we're doing. Why would I want to hear any of the, anything they would have to say? They're zeros. They've literally never done anything in their life, especially in this business. Why would I lis…”
White: No Corporate Sponsor Will Ever Have the Power to Fire Joe Rogan
“And for anybody, I don't give a fuck how much money you have sponsored or whatever. Yeah, no, nothing's happening to Joe Rogan.”
Foroughi: AppLovin's $6B buyback generated $50B to $60B in value
“And so for the following 18 months, we ended up deploying somewhere around six billion dollars of buybacks of our own capital, and we leveraged some to buy back shares in the company. And over time, that ended up creating somewhere in the neighborhood of 50, s…”
Foroughi: AppLovin rejects job candidates whose lives were easy
“And so I always looked for people on the team that had some reason to have a grudge or a chip on their shoulder or something that would motivate them. If they didn't have that in life was really easy. Those were not people that I was going to introduce to the …”
AppLovin restructured a $1B Chinese buyout into debt to pass CFIUS
“We ended up doing it so that instead of their billion dollars being an equity investment for 70% where they would get control, which is what triggers this scrutiny, we ended up pivoting it to a billion dollar convertible note that if on conversion we pay them …”
Foroughi: Retaining top performers requires replacing tenured leaders when junior talent surpasses them
“A lot of people get complacent with the leaders that they have, and those leaders, if they're not at that moment as good for the role of someone underneath, that person underneath is going to leave and start a new business. So like you owe it to every single p…”
Foroughi: Pushing IPO valuations with low float repels long-term blue-chip investors
“Too low a float makes you more volatile, and if the valuation is lower and you can do a 10 to 15% float, you end up attracting better investors who can end up being long-term with you. If you push the valuation where you can't fill a bigger round, you end up w…”
Foroughi: AppLovin may capture over 50% of mobile gaming ad spend
“Probably, I don't know how big, but maybe even almost the over 50% of the marketing dollars in the space go back to our platform because the developers on the other side are seeing the best returns that they've ever seen in their existence on the dollars that …”