The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 357 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Independent studies show Snapchat boosts well-being, unlike TikTok or Instagram
“And I think what's so fascinating, I think now there's been maybe three or more of them, one out of Australia, I think one out of the Netherlands or something, one in the U.S., that show that Snapchat actually has a positive impact on people's well-being and r…”
Nadella: Microsoft has zero AI utilization issues; capacity is sold out
“I don't have a utilization problem. I may have a PUE, like, I mean, I want higher utilization because it's mostly because it's memory bottleneck or what have you, but that is a different, I mean, like, there is not a thing that I have that's not sold out. In f…”
Ricks: Insurers initially refused to cover Eli Lilly's discounted generic insulin
“In the first year, no formularies covered this. So it was really only for that cash payer. No insurance company picked it up, even though it was dramatically cheaper. Now it's about half of the volume, but still half not because that model of this margin sprea…”
Sundheim: Chinese tech firms avoided beating earnings to dodge scrutiny
“For a while we were seeing Chinese internet companies, like, they didn't want to beat earnings. Because if you beat earnings, your stock goes up too much. You know, you might be flagging that, like, you're over-earning”
Scaringe: Tesla Cybertruck cannot pass European pedestrian protection safety standards
“Like, for example, a Cybertruck would not, could not work in Europe.”
Andreessen: US dockworker agreements paid one non-working person per active worker
“One of the things that we, that was discovered during that process that I didn't know is that in prior union agreements with the dock workers, they already had a one-to-one ratio of people sitting at home doing nothing to every productive dock worker as a cons…”
Xu: DoorDash's Dot robot uniquely navigates roads, sidewalks, and bike lanes
“And the sidewalk and the bike lane. And so it's the only vehicle in the world that does that.”
Xu: Google's food ordering failed because it couldn't manage post-checkout logistics
“I remember services, you know, Google food ordering launched in, I forget, 2015 or 16, and they allowed you to order delivery, for example from various Google services, you know, Google Maps, Google Search, et cetera, and while on the one hand it was low frict…”
Staniszewski: Speech-to-speech models are 'definitely dumber' due to size limits
“They are definitely dumber. You need smaller model, you cannot... If you are going speech to speech, usually you will use smaller models, so it's still quick.”
Dolgov: Waymo Gen-6 Hardware Costs a Fraction of Gen-5
“It is very different from the fifth generation. It is simpler. It is more capable. It is much lower cost. It's thinking a fraction of the cost is, you know, comparable to what you would get like a fancy ADA system.”
Lopes Lara: Over 95% of Kalshi maker orders come from peer-to-peer traders
“Over 95 are just like. Peer-to-peer, like, or funds that have like two people that just got stuck.”
Mansour: Kalshi's top inflation forecaster was an amateur from Kansas
“The best inflation forecaster on CalSphere over the last few years is not, none of the institutions or the, you know, the big name hedge funds, it's this guy who lives in Kansas, never traded financial markets before, just likes to read the news, and just know…”
Collison: High-agency, non-expert engineers are ascendant at Stripe thanks to AI
“High work ethic people. Who maybe weren't the best engineers you know, previously or now, those people are massively ascendant, as far as I can tell, because they suddenly got the exoskeleton, you know, and like, they always have the ideas as to what we should…”
Langley: Flock Safety cleared over one million US crimes last year
“So we're, last year, we helped clear just north of a million crimes in America.”
Langley: Cartels fly night-vision drones to case Virginia homes
“In one of the counties we work with, it's an affluent-ish county in the Virginia area South American cartels fly illegal drones through these neighborhoods. They'll flip on night vision, look through houses to see if anyone's home, then go break in.”
Langley: Body cameras exonerate officers in majority of foul play cases
“In the majority of cases that I see, where foul play is called, it is almost always the inverse. Where a law enforcement officer was just trying to do their job, and on the other side, there was other mental health issue, there was something gone wrong, and it…”
Langley: Cobb County solves 100% of violent crimes
“Cobb County would be one which is like the second largest county... If you commit violence in Cobb County, you will get arrested.”
Langley: Majority of 911 calls do not require a human officer response
“Majority of the calls actually never need a human to show up.”
Langley: Flock Safety's drone camera can read license plates nearly a mile away
“Like, we can zoom, we can read a license plate almost a mile away. Like, crazy specs. Great thermal.”
Pope: Google completely stopped publishing its AI research around 2022
“In twenty-twenty-two was about the time when just Google completely stopped publishing its research. And so all the good papers are from before that as a result.”
Collison: GDPR reduced profits for small European tech firms by up to 12%
“GDPR alone is estimated to have reduced profits for small tech firms in Europe by up to 12%.”
Glyman: Majority of Ramp's 55,000+ Customers Have Adopted AI
“And we looked at our data and you know, we support over 55,000 businesses. We lean a little bit towards tech, but not heavily. It kind of resembles the distribution of businesses you would see in the States. And well the majority of businesses have used Used A…”
Glyman: All modern fintech heads of risk came from Capital One
“Our head of risk Sri Srinivasan, he's amazing came from capital, we're the same boss 10 years apart, actually in, in some sense, and all the heads of risk for all modern fintechs that are, came from Capital One.”
Depledge: Top-Quartile UK VCs Match US Returns at 23%
“VC firms, top quartile VC firms in the UK return 23%, right? It's exactly the same as the US.”
DeWahl: 100% 24/7 solar and battery storage costs rival nuclear
“Actually to get true hundred percent, 24 seven coverage, the battery or the excess build out is massive. It is really expensive. It's on, it's like basically on par with nuclear costs.”
Ricks: Cardiovascular trial rules added five years to diabetes drug development
“The Evandia one, we know well, we work in diabetes, actually caused a policy change, and the policy change was you must rule out cardiovascular risk prior to market entry, and as you may know some conditions like diabetes have a more continuous variable you're…”
Ricks: ICER found tirzepatide and semaglutide cost-effective at current pricing
“They just analyzed our medicines, trisepatide and semaglutide, and they said, actually, they're both cost effective at current pricing. In fact, Zepbound or Trisepatide was, the threshold they have is to save a 100,000 dollars per person per year in downstream…”
Ricks: Medicine accounts for only 10 cents of every US healthcare dollar
“In the US, the most expensive healthcare system in the world, we spend 10 cents on the dollar on medicine. The other 90 cents go through everything else that medicine's trying to prevent.”
Ricks: Lilly's net insulin price stayed near $30 despite $275 list price
“Our actual net on insulin really hasn't changed. It's like 30 or 40 dollars, but the list price got up to two 75.”
Ricks: Early-stage biotechs pitch 80% to 100% of revenue from the US
“If you fund, if you went out and said, hey, I want to back some biotechs, and they sent you their business plan, 80 to a hundred percent of the revenue in return they'll pitch you on is the US. Meaning there is no return outside the US if you start at the poin…”
Synthetic fuel production is 100 times more land-efficient than biological photosynthesis
“Plants are great. Even this plastic one here but their net throughput efficiency is about a hundred times lower than a synthetic process like the one we're using in terms of like, Area of land into reduced carbon fuel.”
The laws of physics allow solar panels to become 10 times cheaper
“The limit of physics on how cheap a solar panel can be is, like, at least 10 times cheaper than it currently is.”
SpaceX controls approximately 95% of the global space launch market
“In the space sector, at least, it's quite astounding the extent to which SpaceX is dominant. Right. This is not the case that, like, Apple has, what, 2030, 40% market share in smartphones, and Pixel has 10%, and Huawei and so on has a, this is like, SpaceX has…”
US car seat mandates save 58 lives but avert 10,000 births annually
“Something like 58 children's lives are saved in the United States every year by statistically by car seats, and something like 10,000 births are averted by families who cannot afford to upgrade their cars”
Sundheim: Hiring lateral portfolio managers from other funds almost never succeeds
“If I hire somebody laterally, who's a portfolio manager in another fund, that's rarely been successful, almost, almost never.”
Sundheim: GE Vernova trades at 2x Siemens Energy's enterprise value
“G Renova trades at two x the enterprise value of Siemens energy, just to give you a sense of like, and ultimately, there's no reason why the margin should be higher at G Renova. The revenue base is the same.”
Scaringe: Rivian is the best-selling SUV overall in California and Washington
“Interestingly, in California and the state of Washington, we have the best-selling SUV, electric or not electric, in California and the state of Washington.”
Scaringe: Every automaker except Rivian and Tesla relies on 50-150 computers
“And so, with the exception of two companies, Rivian and Tesla, every car on the road has, depending on the amount of content, anywhere from 50 to maybe a 150 little computers that run the car.”
Scaringe: Chinese EV Cost Advantage Stems from Government-Subsidized Capital
“What's driven the cost down is that you have the compounding benefits of much lower cost of capital across not just this, the manufacturer, the vehicle manufacturer, but across their whole supply chain. So tier one, tier two, tier three, everyone's cost of cap…”
Lütke: Canada ranks top three globally in every critical manufacturing resource
“It has in the ground basically as much, like, it's number one, two, or three on every single resource that is of value in, in the in, in the next manufacturing buildup age”
Andreessen: Global AI development is consolidating into just two geographic hubs
“You see this in data, actually, already. It's AI was reconsolidating. You know, to basically two places on Earth and only one in the West.”
Andreessen: The 2000 dot-com crash was almost entirely a telecom credit bubble
“It was almost entirely a telco bubble, and it was almost entirely a telco crash, and you know that for two reasons. One is the sheer amounts of money involved were so much greater on the telco side, and then the other is telco is where the debt came in. To get…”
Osika: Non-coders are making hundreds of thousands from prompt-built production applications
“That's what we're seeing with people making hundreds of thousands of dollars having built production-ready applications, but just by prompting, not looking at the code ever.”
Wu: Enterprises measure 8x to 15x productivity gains using Devin for migrations
“I think in practice what we see with folks, especially in these kind of like enterprise migrations is, is, you know, when folks measure internally, they see something like an eight to 15 X gain for a lot of these use cases with Devon because, Yeah, as you're s…”
Snap is about to reach one billion monthly active users
“We're about to reach a billion monthly active users, which is a big deal for us.”
Snap is on the verge of net income profitability
“We're also on the verge of net income profitability, which is really exciting for us, especially as we invest really meaningfully in hardware and our specs glasses effort.”
Over one trillion selfies are captured on Snapchat annually
“Over a trillion selfies have been captured on Snapchat, right? And so I think when you know, in, in the, over the same period, and so when you.”
Xu: DoorDash is only platform saving drivers $1.40-$1.90 on gas
“And we're the only platform today to take care of Dashers when there is, you know, these increasing gas prices and making sure that, you know, we have their back and that we're actually trying to help them save a dollar 40 to a dollar 90 per gallon for Dashers…”