The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 217 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Collison: 2025 stablecoin payment volume doubled to $400B, 60% B2B
“In 25, the price of Bitcoin dropped precipitously and is now 50% down from October, but stablecoin payments volume doubled to around 400,000,000,060 percent of which is estimated to represent B to B payments.”
Collison: Klarna is the first bank to launch a stablecoin on Tempo
“Klarna, whose CEO was once a self-proclaimed crypto skeptic, became the first bank to launch a stablecoin, Klarna USD, on the Tempo testnet, using Bridge's open issuance to facilitate faster and cheaper cross-border settlement.”
Collison: Stripe Capital recipients grew 27 percentage points faster over one year
“Businesses that received and accepted capital offers grew, on average, 27 percentage points faster over the following year than the otherwise equivalent businesses who didn't.”
Glyman: Ramp powers over 2% of US business card transactions
“I believe today, ramp powers more than two percent of all corporate and small business card transactions in the United States, which is amazing for a business that, you know, ah, the product you couldn't even sign up for it six years ago.”
Ben Thompson: TSMC cut capex for two years following ChatGPT's release
“ChatGPT comes out. Every hyperscaler starts investing like crazy. What does TSMC do? They actually decreased their capex year over year, two years in a row. They did, they, there was no market response from TSMC to the ChatGPT moment.”
Narayan: UK secured £25 billion in Welsh infrastructure deals
“We've just landed two of the biggest infrastructure investments in the history of Wales twenty-five billion of deals, a bunch of top-tier people associating with governments.”
Depledge: UK Pension Allocation to Domestic Equities Fell From 60% to 6%
“60% of pensioners' money used to be in, in UK equities and riskier funds. It's now six percent.”
DeWahl: NRC rules now mandate licensing decisions within 18 months
“Right now, there's they've changed it to, you have 18 months to get your answer from the NRC. License or no license, like, do, do you pass or not?”
DeWahl: US Buys Almost 50% of Its Uranium From Russia and Ex-Soviet States
“And yeah, we're still buying, like, almost 50% of our uranium from Russia and, kind of, ex-Soviet states.”
DeWahl: US Government Plans $80B Nuclear Partnership with Westinghouse
“The announcement is that the U.S. Government now wants to spend eighty billion dollars on nuclear development alongside Westinghouse.”
DeWahl: Brookfield Moving to Complete Abandoned V.C. Summer Nuclear Plant
“There's a huge, like, trillion asset, trillion dollar asset under management company called Brookfield Asset Management, and they they've actually just gotten in the game as well. In the last couple weeks, I'm sure there was, like, talk, right? Yeah, yeah. To …”
DeWahl: Microsoft and Constellation are restarting Three Mile Island
“That's being brought up back online, partnership between Microsoft and Constellation, I believe.”
Nadella: Microsoft Copilot supports both OpenAI models and Anthropic's Claude
“On Copilot today, you use OpenAI models, you use even Claude, right? I need the system to work across both of those.”
Ricks: Drugs lose 97% of their pricing when patents expire
“Typically a generic event, you'll lose 97% of your pricing the day your patent expires.”
Ricks: Virtually no generic pharmaceuticals are manufactured in the US
“There are no generics manufactured in the U.S. Really.”
Ricks: US cancer trial enrollment is 4% versus over 25% in Spain
“Only four percent of patients who have cancer in the US are in clinical trials, whereas in Spain and Australia, it's over 25%.”
Ricks: Non-Lilly large pharma multiples are at a 20-year low
“If you look at the large cap farmers, not Lilly, but the other ones, the multiples, the most compressed it's been in 20 years. If you look at biotech, the XBI, I think half of the XBI is trading below cash. And then if you look at. Venture. Half of the rounds …”
Ricks: Eli Lilly captures 70-75% of new US GLP-1 starts
“Right now in the US, across all forms of GLP-ONE, on new patient capture, we're basically 70, 75% right now.”
Ricks: Lilly develops clinical drugs in under 7 years versus industry average
“Drug development time in the industry, It's about 10 years in the clinic, a little less right now. We're running a little less than seven at Lilly”
Ricks: Current GLP-1 drug pricing will fall amid competition and pressure
“And the current pricing isn't going to stay. Let's be honest. There'll be more competition. The government wants to lower our prices.”
Ricks: Most major hospital systems have failed price transparency compliance
“Compliance is terrible. Most major hospital systems have not complied. Or if they have, they put on a website somewhere a coded database that is impossible to interpret with ICD-X codes and price points that consumers cannot digest.”
Ricks: China had Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine rights but never approved it
“They had rights to the BioNTech-Pfizer vaccine for almost the entirety of their pandemic. They never approved it.”
Ricks: Generic small-molecule medicines face no regulatory efficacy requirement
“There is no requirement For small molecule chemical medicine to show proof of efficacy of any kind. So you can do pretty simple laboratory experiments and absorption experiments in a small number of people.”
Ricks: Self-pay Zepbound is the #1 prescribed form of GLP-1s
“Actually, the number one prescribed form of these medications is Zep-bound self-buy. We sell more than that than our insured business, a new patient starts, and more than all of we go.”
The average French pension now exceeds average working-age adult income
“I was insane stat in France recently that the average pension is now higher than, the pension is now higher than the average income for working age adults in France.”
China deployed more solar in three months than the US has historically
“China has deployed more solar in, like, the last three months than the United States has ever deployed ever.”
If a region can grow food, it can synthesize its own fuel
“Everywhere pretty much that people live has enough sun that you can make, you know, can grow enough food to survive. And if you can grow enough food to survive, you can synthesize enough fuel to run your modern industrial economy.”
Cheap energy lets China outproduce the US in metals by up to 100x
“We're already in a situation right now where China is outproducing the United States on all the metals, like steel, aluminum, magnesium, and so on and so forth, by, like, a factor of between 10 and a hundred, because they're, Energy is cheap”
Scaringe: Only Rivian and Tesla sell cars without dealership middle layers
“With the exception of us and Tesla, every manufacturer today sells through distributors, and distributors then on to dealers, or in a few cases, direct to dealers. But nonetheless, there's a middle layer.”
Scaringe: Rivian reached positive gross margin in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025
“And so finally end of 24, beginning of 25, we started to hit positive gross margin. So, Q-four of 24, Q-one of 25, positive gross margin.”
Scaringe: Rivian captures 35% US market share in premium electric SUVs
“If you draw the boundary diagram around electric premium vehicles, so like premium SUVs that are over 70,000 dollars, we're by far the best-selling vehicle in that class of vehicles, so we have about 35% market share as we draw that boundary diagram”
Scaringe: LiDAR sensor costs dropped from $75,000 to $200
“Six, seven years ago a LiDAR was 20,000 dollars. 15 years ago LiDAR was 75,000 dollars. Today a LiDAR is like 200 bucks. So it's a very low cost sensor.”
Lütke: Shop Pay delivers a 16% conversion rate increase for merchants
“It's a 16% conversion increase by it being robbed, right?”
Lütke: Ontario has the cleanest power grid in the world
“Like if it's like where I live in Ontario, it's like the grid is entirely clean. It's like the Bruce nuclear power plant, which are constantly built more reactors for, which is like, Every time under budget and before schedule, like six, seven gigawatts now, a…”
Andreessen: The 1999 Total Internet Market Was at Most 50 Million People
“The total market size in like, 1999 for internet anything was like fifty million people total max maybe.”
Wu: Google hired Windsurf's core research team while other functions remained intact
“There was a core kind of, like, research and product engineering team that went to Google, and the, all of the other functions were entirely intact, which includes enterprise engineering, infra, deployed engineering go to market, marketing, finance operations,…”
Snapchat+ has reached 25 million subscribers and a $1 billion run rate
“We just announced we had twenty-five million Snapchat plus subscribers, over a billion run rate on the direct revenue business.”
Xu: DoorDash struggled to raise capital relative to peers from 2016 to 2018
“In fact, you know, between 2016, 1718, we barely were able to raise a dollar, you know, relative to our peers.”
Xu: Dozens of Chinese cities match or exceed Manhattan's population density
“In China there are many dozens of cities over a million in population, and the population density is even perhaps higher than that of Manhattan.”
Xu: US restaurant count grew nearly every year for 60 years
“If you looked in, in, in America, in the last 60 years, I think there's only a couple years where the number of restaurants in the current year Didn't exceed that in the previous year.”
Staniszewski says ElevenLabs speech-to-text models beat industry benchmarks across 100 languages
“Speech to text models that work over a hundred languages and happily beat others on benchmarks all the way through to conversational models of how you loop them together to music, to other domains of audio.”
Staniszewski says leading voice models use under twenty billion parameters
“A few billion to low tens of billion parameter models.”
Staniszewski: Fused voice-LLM models will reach hundreds of billions of parameters
“The thing that's, you know, like I hesitated on the question is, in a cascaded approach, you probably will not see like dramatic size changes. You inherently want the models to be quick and reliable. You want to orchestrate them in a smart way. In a fused appr…”
Pichai: Gemini has state-of-the-art spatial reasoning models for robotics
“The Gemini robotics models are sort of on spatial reasoning, et cetera, so we definitely have state of the art models there.”