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Nearly 60% of plant-based meat buyers are not substituting it for beef.
“What we hear from consumers is that about almost 60% of consumers who are buying plant-based meat are not substituting for beef. It's for a food other than beef, whether it's poultry, pork, seafood, eggs, non-meat, you know, pasta, pizza.”
Plant-based meat retail volume has suffered 33 consecutive months of declines.
“And what's happened since then is about, I think, 33 consecutive months now of volume declines. The category was down three percent in twenty-twenty-one. It was down eight or nine percent in twenty-twenty-two, and then this year so far in twenty-twenty-three, …”
Survey: One-third of consumers refuse to buy plant-based meat under any circumstances.
“There's about one third of consumers out there tell us they're not buying plant-based meat, They're not interested. There's about 20% of consumers that are not interested in plant-based beverages.”
Plant-based meat growth will require a 20-year generational horizon, not three years.
“We speak to investors, and we say, look, we're positive on the long-term growth of this plant-based category. We literally mean Generational. 20 years. This is not going to happen in, you know, a two or three, you know, year investment horizon for a lot of fol…”
Cultivated meat will inevitably reach price parity if venture funding continues flowing.
“As long as they're willing to kind of stay in the path, you are going to see that cost curve come down. So it's only a matter of time before you see, you know, price parity kick in.”
Beyond Meat's fast-food pilots failed to stick, unlike Impossible at Burger King.
“I think Impossible has made some of the, you know, the stickiest gains, you know, with Burger King there. You know, I think Beyond Meat's been, it's been more disappointing, you know, in the sense that there were a couple of trials with you know, A&W up in Can…”
Mizuho survey: Only 10% of consumers would order plant-based restaurant meat.
“Even in our consumer surveys, there's only about, you know, maybe 10% of consumers that say, you know, I, you know, I'm likely to purchase a plant-based meat product in a restaurant, you know, rather than an animal-based traditional, you know, beef, you know, …”
Frozen plant-based meat is currently outperforming fresh refrigerated products in retail.
“But what's interesting is if you look at frozen versus fresh, you've actually seen The frozen part of the category outperforming the refrigerated fresh part of the category.”
Even consumers earning over $100,000 require price parity to buy plant-based meat.
“When we talk to consumers in our consumer surveys, you know, about You know, call it 40% of consumers, you know, even in the higher income, so a hundred K annual income and higher even 40% of those consumers are looking for price parity with animal meat. And a…”
Private-label plant-based meat will eventually capture a high-teens market share.
“So our thought process is you'll probably see private label ramp over time to a high teens percent of the market, more or less where it is in plant-based beverages and the rest of the food industry.”
Plant-based beverage volume softened in 2023 following mid-teens price hikes.
“I think what you've seen more recently in the past six to nine months, you've also seen volumes in consumption soften for plant-based beverages. We think really because of just elasticity, and you've seen, you know, mid-teens price increases having been taken …”
Plant-based meat household penetration is 20%, compared to 40% for plant milks.
“Right now, household penetration for plant-based meat is about 20%. You look at where household penetration is for plant-based beverages, you know, plant milk, it's about over 40%. And in Europe, you know, plant-based beverages have a penetration of 50%.”
Impossible Foods captured 11% of the retail plant-based meat market by 2023.
“I mean, you've seen impossible go from not even in the retail market, you know, three, four years ago to about a, you know, 10 or 11% share of the market right now.”
Morningstar Farms lost 10% market share as Impossible Foods entered retail.
“The bulk of that share has come at the expense of Morningstar, which is owned by Kellogg. You've seen Morningstar's share go from, you know, 30% leading the category to about 20% now.”