Mizuho Securities analyst John Baumgartner discusses the timeline for technological innovation and market turnaround in the plant-based meat sector.
Insight
Software-style version iterations fail in food because poor first impressions are permanent.
“But with, you know, Beyond Meat, for example, launching Beyond Burger version, two point oh, three point oh, four point oh it's not an iPhone. You know, this is not a situation where you hook somebody on basic functionality, and they stick with you one, two, t…”
Assertion Supported
Nearly 60% of plant-based meat buyers are not substituting it for beef.
“What we hear from consumers is that about almost 60% of consumers who are buying plant-based meat are not substituting for beef. It's for a food other than beef, whether it's poultry, pork, seafood, eggs, non-meat, you know, pasta, pizza.”
Assertion Supported
Plant-based meat retail volume has suffered 33 consecutive months of declines.
“And what's happened since then is about, I think, 33 consecutive months now of volume declines. The category was down three percent in twenty-twenty-one. It was down eight or nine percent in twenty-twenty-two, and then this year so far in twenty-twenty-three, …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Survey: One-third of consumers refuse to buy plant-based meat under any circumstances.
“There's about one third of consumers out there tell us they're not buying plant-based meat, They're not interested. There's about 20% of consumers that are not interested in plant-based beverages.”
Insight
Cultivated meat may be an easier psychological leap than processed plant-based meat.
“You know, in some respects, I would argue that maybe it's even an easier mental move for folks than it is consuming soybean or wheat products that Taste like beef.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Cultivated meat will inevitably reach price parity if venture funding continues flowing.
“As long as they're willing to kind of stay in the path, you are going to see that cost curve come down. So it's only a matter of time before you see, you know, price parity kick in.”