Plant-based milks hold 15% retail value share but only 8% volume share.
John Baumgartner · Reviving the stagnant plant based meat market · Sep 28, 2023 · at 32:32
Mizuho equity analyst John Baumgartner critiques flawed total addressable market projections in plant-based meat that assumed milk-category value share parallels without adjusting for volume and pricing parity.
0:00 / 0:08exact quote · 8.8s
720p mp4 · rendered on demand · StarZero watermark
“Yes, plant-based beverage is 15% value share of the category, but because it's priced at a premium, it's about an eight or nine percent volume share.”
quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →
More from John Baumgartner
Software-style version iterations fail in food because poor first impressions are permanent.
“But with, you know, Beyond Meat, for example, launching Beyond Burger version, two point oh, three point oh, four point oh it's not an iPhone. You know, this is not a situation where you hook somebody on basic functionality, and they stick with you one, two, t…”
Nearly 60% of plant-based meat buyers are not substituting it for beef.
“What we hear from consumers is that about almost 60% of consumers who are buying plant-based meat are not substituting for beef. It's for a food other than beef, whether it's poultry, pork, seafood, eggs, non-meat, you know, pasta, pizza.”
Plant-based meat retail volume has suffered 33 consecutive months of declines.
“And what's happened since then is about, I think, 33 consecutive months now of volume declines. The category was down three percent in twenty-twenty-one. It was down eight or nine percent in twenty-twenty-two, and then this year so far in twenty-twenty-three, …”
Survey: One-third of consumers refuse to buy plant-based meat under any circumstances.
“There's about one third of consumers out there tell us they're not buying plant-based meat, They're not interested. There's about 20% of consumers that are not interested in plant-based beverages.”
Plant-based meat growth will require a 20-year generational horizon, not three years.
“We speak to investors, and we say, look, we're positive on the long-term growth of this plant-based category. We literally mean Generational. 20 years. This is not going to happen in, you know, a two or three, you know, year investment horizon for a lot of fol…”