The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 2,090 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 24 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Matthew: AI capital expenditures have reached half a trillion dollars a year
“All the dollars that we're spending, you know, which is on the order of half a trillion dollars now a year”
Black: New Mexico produces lowest carbon-intensity oil and gas anywhere
“So we've got the lowest carbon intense barrel of oil and unit of natural gas anywhere.”
Black: XGS chose New Mexico for $1B plant due to state-backed VC fund
“It's also why XGS Geothermal chose to build a 150 megawatt, billion dollar geothermal plant in New Mexico, because they were funded by a fund funded by the State Investment Council.”
Black: New Mexico leads the US in R&D spend density and PhDs per capita
“While we have the highest density of R&D spend in the U.S. Here in New Mexico, We also have the most PhDs per capita in the United States, live here in New Mexico.”
Black: New Mexico is the only state offering free two- and four-year college
“That sovereign wealth fund not only invests in companies that are helping create jobs, it also pays for us as the only state in the country that provides free Two and four year college tuition for anybody who graduates from a high school in New Mexico , you ca…”
Black: New Mexico will be the only state providing universal free childcare
“As well, starting November first of this year, we will provide universal free childcare and early education programs for any family in the, in New Mexico, only place in the United States.”
Garabedian: ERCOT green power prices doubled to $65/MWh amid AI demand
“If you look in West Texas and you were to sign a solar and wind kind of affirmed green power purchase agreement in, in Texas and Urquhart territory three years ago, you might've paid 35 dollars a megawatt hour for that product. Today you're paying 65, maybe mo…”
Garabedian: EPC accounts for roughly half of hydrogen plant installed costs
“And in a typical project like we're discussing, roughly half of the total installed cost goes to the EPC.”
Chubuk: OpenAI o1 showed test-time compute improves results beyond training sets
“So what O-one showed is if you spend test time compute, you can get better results. So that was very exciting to me because there was one way of investing resources that was beyond the training set.”
Chubuk: AI is currently not better than humans at hypothesis generation
“It does seem like today there are things that ML, AI is better than humans, but one of those things is not hypothesis generation.”
Clements: DOE proposes 60-day fast-track for curtailable power loads
“And three, and the exciting part that I know Tyler's going to want to jump in on, is that it suggests that if loads are willing to be curtailed, curtailable, if loads will stop when asked, stop taking power from the grid when asked by the grid operator, they s…”
Sridhar: Data center developer interest in off-grid power jumped from 1% to 29%
“18 months ago, the survey, you know, like respondents said, one percent of the survey respondents said they will use on-site power that is not connected to the grid. Two months ago when we did the same survey, 29% of the respondents said they will use on-site …”
Rathi: UK Reform Party polls ahead of major parties opposing net zero
“So there is a party called the Reform Party that's on the rise over here, doing in the polls better than the main two parties, Labour and Conservatives, and they are against net zero.”
Rathi: ASML cannot expand Dutch factories due to grid connection delays
“ASML, which is like the Netherlands biggest company, most valuable company, isn't able to build extra factory because it cannot get an electricity connection for the next few years.”
Dell: Incumbent home batteries are not engineered for grid market participation
“And the home batteries on the market today, they're not designed to do that, right? The engineers that are designing these products to be paired with, you know, home solar and sold at a upfront gross margin, they don't really care about, you know, participatio…”
Dell: Base Power deployed to 5,000 homes with only one churned customer
“We've got on the order of 5000 of these batteries in the ground actually 5000 homes, and so it's more batteries, because a lot of them have two. We have had, in our direct business, we have had one customer”
Dell: Base Power currently deploys 20 megawatts of storage monthly in Texas
“We are deploying megawatts in Texas very quickly like on the order of 20 megawatts a month.”
O'Neill: New fossil fuel plants also face long timelines and rising costs
“Those resources are, the timeframe for getting those resources built and online is pretty long at this point. A lot of folks have pointed to that, and the prices are going up.”
Kann: Microsoft and Frontier dominate virtually all carbon removal purchases
“If you just look at, like, overall
Tons purchased in the CDR market.
It's basically Microsoft, followed by, like, an order of magnitude lower frontier, which is the Stripe Coalition, followed by a bunch of little minnows, you know, in, in relative terms.”
Off-grid Texas data centers pay up to 10x more for electricity
“If you look at it in a place like Texas, for instance, where the average price for electricity on any given day is actually pretty low. Like the real time price may be sitting around 20 dollars a megawatt hour. So you go off grid in Texas and you're paying som…”
Kann: Nuclear developers can now secure viable PPAs from AI data centers
“To me, it's like, clearly, yes, they can take advantage of that in the sense that You can get a PPA at a price that is going to be hopefully sufficient to make the project economics work. Those things are big deals, right? Like that, I don't think that was tru…”
Sivaram: Data center power demand has more than doubled annually
“The power demand from data centers has more than doubled. Every year, the last several years, and that trend shows no sign of abating.”
Sivaram: Computing demand is more than quadrupling every year
“Compute demand is more than quadrupling every year, a four X increase every year.”
Frankel: Only 10% of Databricks Cluster Workloads Are Non-Preemptible
“It was surprising to me, by the way, to hear that he anticipated that just 10% Of the workloads on a representative Databricks cluster were non-preemptible. In other words, they absolutely could not be paused or delayed in any way.”
Mossberg: Global sodium-ion battery capacity is between 30 and 100 GWh
“You'd be pretty safe in saying there's at least 30 gigawatt hours, probably as much as a hundred gigawatt hours of sodium ion capacity worldwide for all different variants”
NFPP sodium-ion cells currently cost $15-$30/kWh more than LFP
“Depending on which LFP you're comparing to, the cells that we're working on are somewhere between 15 to 30 dollars per kilowatt hour more expensive than equivalent LFP on a cost per kilowatt hour basis.”
Peak Energy deploying world's first passively cooled grid-scale sodium-ion battery
“The first three and a half megawatt hour unit of capacity is going into the grid right now, and in Denver, it's going to be the largest outside of China. All that's exciting, but what I'm really excited about is that it's the first passively completely passive…”
Piper: PJM capacity spikes add $20 to $30 to monthly bills
“Customers in Ohio and Pennsylvania and Maryland, they're getting these notices. Their bills are going up by 20 or 30 bucks a month, you know. Starting this year, as a result of last year's capacity auction price, this capacity auction that, that was announced …”
Piper: Combined-cycle gas plant lead times now stretch to 2030–2032
“The run on gas turbines is such that you can't deploy very many of them next year, or even two years from now. If you want to build the more complex combined cycle generation systems They're talking about 2030, 20 32.”
Redwood Materials collects over 80% of US end-of-life EV battery packs
“We are already collecting north of 80% of the end of life EV packs across the nation.”
New U.S. natural gas plants cost $2,240 per kilowatt, doubling recent estimates
“We've got about 55 gigawatts of plants. Like more than a hundred individual plants, and way more than that number of different generators. And what we see is that, actually, his number's not bad. 2400 dollars a kilowatt. What we see by twenty-thirty-one, twent…”
Kelty: GM is the largest North American OEM battery cell producer
“And we're now at a point where we are the largest OEM producer of battery cells in North America with these two factories.”
Kelty: LMR cathode achieves intermediate range at LFP battery cost
“So that, that's the advantage, is that you get something in between there, in terms of your driving range, but you're able to do it at the cost of the LFP.”
Kurt Kelty: LMR batteries use GM's existing Ultium high-nickel manufacturing lines
“So this is one of the beauties of LMR is that it really piggybacks off all the work that we've done with high nickel. So it's the same manufacturing process. So we'll use the same Ultium factories. The it's the same electrode manufacturing process. The packagi…”
Sharp: Gas turbine delivery backlog extends past 2029
“Some markets were always investigating, you know, different types of, you know, solutions via gas turbines and, Even those are backlog plus 20, 29, right?”
Sharp: AI inference deployments require 5-megawatt blocks, unlike training arrays
“What we're really seeing is inference. Can come in, in like, five-ish megawatt blocks, and you can solve for it a bit differently. Now, the densification is still there, and then the private AI pieces, there's hot spots where it can be, you know, a couple of m…”
Brough: Half of global gas turbine orders go to oil and gas
“About half of the gas turbines that's ordered in the marketplace aren't even for the electric power utility market. They're for the oil and gas market.”
Brough: Gas turbine prices have surged 30% to 35% over five years
“It's, but it's definitely up around 30 to 35% over the last five years. The price is definitely up. I track all of that very, very closely.”
Brough: Average gas turbine procurement lead times now stretch to 48 months
“I would say between 36 and 48 months. I suppose there are some OEMs that are claiming up to 60 months, but I would say on average it's around the 48 month period.”
Brough: Roughly 1,400 new data centers are planned across the US
“There's like 1400 New data centers planned in the United States alone. And over a thousand of those are all large scale.”
Hoyland: US near-term geothermal resource spans hundreds of gigawatts to terawatts
“When you look at the full stack of kind of near-term EGS and conventional, we really are talking about hundreds of gigawatts to terawatts of resource potential.”
Khan: Trump's deep-sea mining executive order aims to accelerate U.S. market
“President Trump, in his second term focus on energy dominance, would find his way to deep sea mining and issue an executive order intended to speed up the market, at least for the United States.”
Smit: Seabed extraction technology has been proven since the 1970s
“The technology is known and proven and it has been proven. And incidentally, the first time it was proven was back in the 19 seventies. So the tech for this has been has been around for multiple decades.”
Smit: Ocean mining avoids expensive land-based mine infrastructure costs
“We don't have all the big capital costs of infrastructure, power lines, roads, rails,
Dams, et cetera, which means the cost of capital for us is going to be lower. You know, we are going to spend less money building a ship to go mining than what you will do pe…”
Doherty: Moss Landing fire spread after water suppression system failed
“What we do know is that mid-afternoon, January 16th, one of those modules went into thermal runaway. What we don't know yet is we don't have an official sort of answer on is for some reason that water system didn't work correctly. And that thermal runaway spre…”
Doherty: Battery storage failure rates dropped 97% from 2018 to 2023
“If you look at the number of failures and the failure rate from 2018 to 2023, it was just a five year span. That it dropped by 97%, and I think that's something that's really incredible and something to be really proud of.”
Nuclear development costs hundreds of millions upfront, far exceeding renewable projects
“Unlike renewables, where the development cost might be in the tens of millions of dollars at most It's hundreds of millions of dollars for nuclear, and you can't just have a power purchase agreement to make that kind of investment as a developer.”
NRC nuclear application review timelines have dropped from four to two years
“That has been demonstrated by reduced timelines for them to review various applications I've observed just in the 15 years I've been in the nuclear space where, you know, what once took four years is now being done in two years.”