The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 2,090 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 24 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Chay: California depleted its 100-year forest carbon wildfire buffer in 10 years
“Yeah, it's not all the way gone, but we've, we have used up all of the credits that were meant to protect against forest fires for the next 100 years in the first 10 years of the program.”
Chay: Protocols issue carbon credits for farming practices started a decade ago
“A lot of these protocols allow people to get credits for practices they started a while ago, like maybe up to 10 years ago.”
Mukhopadhyay: 9-seat electric planes only get 150km range with current batteries
“With current battery technology, and including sort of the standard reserves that are required for flights, you would, you probably get about a 150 kilometers out of the nine seater aircraft, which is a lot less that's close to a hundred miles”
Mukhopadhyay: Electric aircraft can only address 0.1% of global passenger kilometers
“These electric aircraft in the end don't actually end up playing a significant role in terms of the global aviation market. We're talking about close to like .1% of the global aviation traffic can be serviced by these aircraft. Now that's in terms of sort of p…”
Mukhopadhyay: Non-CO2 aircraft impacts like contrails cause twice the warming of CO2
“They say that current research suggests that the impact, the non CO two impacts, which includes these contrail formation can be twice as much as the impact from CO two alone.”
Jacobs: Supply chain inflation hurts infrastructure developers more than rising rates
“The supply chain and the cost of supplies have gone up far more than the cost of capital has gone up so far, and that volatility in the supply chain has been much more troubling for our partners than cost of capital changes has been so far.”
Visioni: Sulfate geoengineering ozone depletion would likely stay within 5%
“We, and based on what we've seen with previous volcanic corruptions, we know that the depletion of ozone wouldn't be catastrophic. It would probably be around plus or minus five percent of what it is now.”
Friedmann: Waste Biomass Is Sufficient to Scale SAF Without Hitting Limits
“We do need huge volumes of biomass to make huge volumes of sustainable aviation fuel. But in point of fact, there is way more waste biomass than that. So we're not going to hit the limit just on sustainable aviation fuel.”
Orbuch: The Clean Air Act caused net warming by reducing reflective aerosols
“The Clean Air Act was pretty meaningfully net warming for Earth, right? Like, it was an objectively good thing, obviously. Like, it saved probably millions of lives. It protected, you know, millions of people, and especially vulnerable communities from really …”
Orbuch: Forest carbon protocols completely ignore albedo effects that negate carbon storage
“No freaking forest carbon protocol accounts for albedo. And in some cases, it's, like, enough to almost undo the carbon storage provided by the forest.”
Shah: Green ammonia is profitable today without any government subsidies
“Such that you know, I think green ammonia, you know, today is quite profitable without any subsidies at all even at today's cost of hydrogen, right?”
Shah: Developers finding US sites with sub-$35/MWh power 90% of the year
“They are finding many, many, many locations across this country where you can average less than 35 dollars a megawatt hour for 90% plus of the hours of the year on the LMP.”
Bataille: Permian methane leak rates make natural gas as dirty as coal
“In places like the Permian where, you know, the number is seven percent, then eight percent, then nine percent, those are tragically high fugitive, fugitive, fugitive levels. You might as well be doing coal.”
Jenkins: Gazprom kept its European gas storage assets exceptionally low pre-invasion
“Gazprom, the Russian gas company, owns a lot of storage assets for natural gas in Europe, and if you look at the storage volumes for Gazprom-owned storage assets in Europe, they were much lower than the average for other assets at the time, so it's almost as i…”
Schroeder: EVs have fewer fires per vehicle than ICE cars
“There are still a lot fewer of them on a per EV basis than there are internal combustion engine vehicle fires on a per ICE basis.”
Schroeder: Flow batteries match lithium-ion costs at 8 to 10 hours
“And usually you get something that looks like lithium ion cost when you're getting around eight to 10 hours.”
DeWitt: Nuclear requires the least materials per lifetime gigawatt-hour
“And when you look at that, nuclear by far requires the least of all energy sources available to us today. And it's a significant difference in advantage.”
DeWitt: Fast reactors can reduce nuclear waste storage timelines to centuries
“Fast reactors in particular have some neat attributes where they can not just use this fuel efficiently, but they can use waste from other reactors and themselves quite efficiently and economically so, right? That's been one of the big hangups and holdups for …”
Shah: All 15 US carbon black plants face EPA consent decrees
“And there's 15 major plants in the United States. All of them are under EPA, Department of Justice consent decrees. As of 2013, none of them had had Sox and Nox scrubbers on them, so the people who lived in those communities nearby were breathing in some of th…”
Shah: Solar and wind projects yield mere 2% to 4% returns
“They want at best, you know, high single-digit returns on their portfolio, and in most cases, the solar and wind industry are, you know, getting two, three, four percent returns, and that's after you assume forty-year life and all the other things that people …”
Lubershain: Home Gas Appliances With Upstream Leaks Are Worse Than Coal
“If you are to burn natural gas in in an appliance in a home, for example, like a home boiler or in, in, in an oven And you take that two and a half percent leak rate upstream as a given, then it's actually even a little bit worse in the next 20 years from a gl…”
Rutherford: Crop-based aviation biofuels can emit more lifecycle CO2 than fossil fuel
“You can actually produce sustainable aviation fuels that on a life cycle basis emit more carbon dioxide than the base jet fuel.”
Lubershain: Grid equipment and gas plant costs have doubled or tripled
“Conductor is, like, twice as expensive. So, like, basic aluminum, steel-reinforced conductor. Transformers are two-plus times more expensive. Switchgear is two times more expensive. Gas power plants are two to three times more expensive.”
Janous: Data centers use little water compared to agriculture and golf courses
“And if you look at the actual facts, like, data centers do not use that much water relative to, you know, fill in the blank, almonds, avocados, golf courses, you know, so.”
Janous: GE Vernova builds 2.6 GW capacity for one-gigawatt data center
“In fact, I was talking to Someone from GE Vernova yesterday, and he was talking about for this gigawatt data center, they're having to build 2.6 gigawatts of capacity across generation and batteries and everything else.”
Wang: Electrochemical aluminum conversion outperforms combustion efficiency without NOx emissions
“You can really design electrochemical systems that are incredibly cost-effective and capable, and ultimately able to convert that energy from its raw thermodynamic form in aluminum out to electricity with far higher efficiency than combustion, without any of t…”
Wang: Aluminum fuel is twice as energy-dense by volume as diesel
“In fact, is from a volume basis, about twice as energy dense as diesel on an as-converted basis. So come at the amount of electricity you're getting out per, you know, liter per gallon of fuel. And then even on a weight basis, you are a little bit better than …”
Wang: Voya achieves 100 MW per acre, quadrupling diesel density
“Per in terms of megawatts per acre, the power density, how much power you can pack in per acre, we are approximately a hundred megawatts per acre in our high density configuration, which is about four times higher than a diesel generator installation”
Wang: Voya cuts front-line fuel shipping volume by roughly 70%
“And then in terms of fuel logistics, especially for the military use cases where they're using the fuel so inefficiently, we have a substantial energy density benefit, about 20 to 30% Less mass and about 70% less volume shipped to the front lines for a typical…”
Wang: Impurities in low-grade aluminum scrap improve Voya's electrolyte stability
“We just had a nice breakthrough a couple days ago, I don't think you've heard about this yet, where some of the common impurities found in the lowest grades of scrap actually have a significant beneficial impact on the stability of our electrolyte.”
Wong: Transmission interconnection studies take 6-9 months and cost $250K
“I think most utilities are talking about six to nine months to perform one of those studies, and it's a one-time, right, so risk of restudies will compound that, and it does cost internal utility, typically a hundred, A couple of 100,000 dollars. The typical b…”
Wong: SCE projects up to 10,000 monthly energization requests taking 30-45 days
“I think when we public study that we did with SCE, I think they are projecting like up to 10,000 of these energization requests per month, and each one of them takes like 30 to 45 days.”
Wong: ThinkLabs' physics-informed AI models are deterministic and cannot hallucinate
“So our models actually can't hallucinate. It's actually deterministic. You ask it the same thing, it will give you the same answer all the time.”
Wong: ThinkLabs trains state-sized utility models in 10 minutes for $5
“And we have done that for multiple large IOUs now, a couple of thousand buses, it takes us about 10 minutes per training run. For a Powerflow model the size of a state, typically. And that 10 minute training run cost maybe five bucks of compute. And we were ab…”
Wong: Utilities cannot determine historical utilization of distribution cables
“Like how much is that cable actually being utilized historically? Nobody can really tell you that answer today in planning or operations, especially in distribution.”
Tillis supported most Trump policies despite disagreements over his rhetoric
“I entered politics bucking my party and expecting more out of it. And then in Trump won. I had a lot of differences with his words. I supported most of his policies, and we had a couple of dust-ups. I think if people are fair in their assessment, I have been g…”
Tillis claims Biden's Keystone XL cancellation destroyed two billion dollars of capital
“I mean, where were you when Biden absolutely destroyed XL pipeline and two billion dollars of capital came out of the ground as a result of that?”
Developers build trailer camps for traveling electricians in smaller data center markets
“There's a lot of that at data center sites where you are bringing the labor especially in these tier three, tier four markets, and providing places for them to live and eat and stay so that they can be near the job. Because, you know, 40 miles outside Jackson,…”
Hawkins: Electrician costs have tripled over the last decade
“Without a doubt. Yeah, the electrician the cost for electricians You know, I'm going to give you a, you know, estimate has tripled in the time I've been in the business. Yeah. In the last decade.”
Hade: Utility scale is 90% of US battery growth and C&I is virtually zero
“Of that, you know, roughly 40 gigawatts of storage that's been added to the grid over the last five years something like 90% of it is utility scale, and 10% is residential, and if you add 90 and 10, that gets to a hundred, which means that basically nothing is…”
Hade: PJM capacity prices have increased 11x over 36 months
“The way to think about this in PJM, right, is capacity prices have gone up 11 X in the last 36 months.”
Hade: Battery storage hardware costs dropped 30% to 40% over 18 months
“So at the pack level over the last 18 months, battery costs are down like 40%, depending on sort of what analysis you look at. And at the system level, maybe like 30% is the right way to think about it. So the cost of, you know, an actual system that you deplo…”
Letendre: Most new electric school buses are bidirectional capable
“Most all of the school bus electric school buses that are coming off the lines are bi-directional capable, and there are now several higher power DC bi-directional chargers that are compatible with those school buses.”
Letendre: 10 kW bidirectional EV charger can earn $3,000 annually via grid services
“In some jurisdictions where, ah, utilities are compensating, ah, resources for providing peak shaving in the 200 to 300 kW, ah, per season, ah, range. You know, for a 10 k, kW bidirectional charging system, you could potentially earn, you know, 3000 dollars pe…”
Quantum roadmaps target million-qubit systems within three to five years
“So right now the holy grail, if you will, of quantum is say a million physical qubits to implement perhaps thousands of logical qubits. And that's where you start to get real science and real applications. And if you look at all the company roadmaps, that is t…”
Rolls-Royce found quantum fluid dynamics outperformed theoretical predictions
“Rolls-Royce, who makes very good jet engines, are starting to examine what they can do for their computational fluid dynamics programs, what quantum can bring to the table. It was interesting. They got some cool results, but what I really liked about their exp…”
Eliahu-Ontiveros: OpenAI and Anthropic drive half of Amazon and Microsoft buildout
“Increasingly, you basically look at Amazon or Microsoft, how many gigawatts they're building every quarter? Half of that is going to either both of them combined, right? Open AI and Anthropic.”
Eliahu-Ontiveros: CoreWeave's contracted power plateaued at 3.5 GW since Q3 2025
“CoreWeave, they have, you know, three and a half gigawatts of contracted power. Contracted for that means signed leases for the most part, some self-built, mostly signed leases with third parties. And what you saw was that this number was about, if I remember …”