distribution transformers

also referred to as: distribution transformer

7 statements across 2 episodes · 0 bullish · 1 bearish · 2 people on the record · first statement Feb 22, 2024 by Tim Mills · across every show →

Everything said about distribution transformers, oldest first

Feb 22, 2024
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Mills: Storm-driven transformer replacement demand rose sharply after 2017
“We went back and looked historically, like, what was the demand on a transformer because of storm response? And we recognized that the level of, you know, kind of natural disaster from 20 17 forward was much more severe than the level of natural disaster pre-t…”
Tim Mills Feb 22, 2024 ▶ 15:02 The electric transformer shortage
Feb 22, 2024 negative
Assertion Supported
Mills: Distribution transformer prices surged 75% to 100% over two years
“Pricing has increased a lot over the last couple of years. I would say on average, 75 to a hundred percent increase in price.”
Tim Mills Feb 22, 2024 ▶ 27:26 The electric transformer shortage
Feb 22, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Mills: US transformer manufacturing capacity was likely flat from 2007 to 2021
“My gut tells me if you looked at the total capacity in the U.S. For building a transformer in 20 or 2007 versus 20 21, it was probably constant.”
Tim Mills Feb 22, 2024 ▶ 9:34 The electric transformer shortage
Feb 22, 2024 neutral
Prediction Held up
Mills projects distribution transformer prices will rise 0% to 5% in 2024
“Right now I'm projecting a, you know, a flat to a five percent increase in twenty-twenty-four.”
Tim Mills Feb 22, 2024 ▶ 27:42 The electric transformer shortage
Feb 22, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Mills: In 2018, distribution transformer lead times were 12 to 14 weeks
“In 2018, I think most customers, most utilities, Felt really, really comfortable with the distribution transformer supply chain. They'd pick up the phone, or they'd, they'd shoot over a PO, and in anywhere from 12 to 14 weeks, that transformer was showing up o…”
Tim Mills Feb 22, 2024 ▶ 5:53 The electric transformer shortage
Feb 22, 2024
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mills: Early US transformer shortage was driven by utility panic-buying
“But this wasn't, this was not the microchip problem, right? That was preventing automobiles from being produced, where, where literally you couldn't get the Componentry, the necessary input to produce the output. This was the toilet paper example, right? Where…”
Tim Mills Feb 22, 2024 ▶ 13:26 The electric transformer shortage
Feb 19, 2026
Assertion Partly supported
Baglino: Step-up transformer demand has surged over 250% since 2019
“In fact, I have some statistics here. You know, power transformers, these are generator transformers. Demand is up is over double since 2019. For generation step-up transformers it's up over 250%. Distribution transformers up over a hundred percent.”
Drew Baglino Feb 19, 2026 ▶ 23:33 The rise of grid power electronics with Drew Baglino
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