Assertion Partly supported AI assessment confidence: 90% certainty 4/5 debate potential 1/5

Baglino: Step-up transformer demand has surged over 250% since 2019

Drew Baglino · The rise of grid power electronics with Drew Baglino · Feb 19, 2026 · at 23:33

Drew Baglino (founder of Heron Power, ex-Tesla SVP) outlines statistical data behind the post-2019 demand surge driving global transformer shortages.

0:00 / 0:20exact quote · 20.3s

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“In fact, I have some statistics here. You know, power transformers, these are generator transformers. Demand is up is over double since 2019. For generation step-up transformers it's up over 250%. Distribution transformers up over a hundred percent.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

The claim, plainly

Demand for power transformers has more than doubled since 2019, generation step-up transformer demand is up over 250%, and distribution transformer demand is up over 100%.

a quote alone can be ambiguous, so this restates it with the references and context of the conversation around it resolved. AI-written; the tape below the player is the source.

Assessment

The claim bundles three specific numerical assertions regarding transformer demand growth between 2019 and 2025/2026. Industry data from Wood Mackenzie and the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) confirms two of the three legs: power transformer demand grew by approximately 116% to 119% (satisfying 'over double' / >100%), and generation step-up (GSU) transformer demand grew by 274% (satisfying 'up over 250%'). However, the third leg fails: total U.S. distribution transformer demand increased by roughly 34% to 41% (ranging from 30% to 77% across specific subtypes), falling well short of the claimed '>100%' threshold, though distribution transformer unit prices rose by nearly 100% over the same period.

Wood Mackenzie and RMI reports (August 2025 and May 2026) confirm U.S. power transformer demand surged 116% to 119% between 2019 and 2025, exceeding the 100% threshold.
Wood Mackenzie and RMI supply chain studies confirm U.S. generation step-up (GSU) transformer demand increased by 274% between 2019 and 2025, exceeding the 250% threshold.
Wood Mackenzie datasets place total U.S. distribution transformer demand growth at 34% to 41% between 2019 and 2025 (with pad-mount three-phase peaking at 77%), materially below the claimed >100% increase in demand.

Checked against

[1] woodmac.com [2] npcelectric.com [3] woodmac.com [4] rmi.org [5] smartlandenergy.com [6] secondwatt.com [7] eepower.com [8] mckinsey.com.br

"distribution transformers" demand "100%" 2019 2024 OR 2025 OR 2026 distribution transformer demand doubled OR 100 percent since 2019 Wood Mackenzie OR NREL transformer demand 2019 2024 OR 2025 OR 2026 Wood Mackenzie OR NREL OR DOE "Wood Mackenzie" "274%" "116%" "distribution" "distribution transformer demand" "100%" OR "doubled" 2019

assessed as of 2026-09-02

This assessment is an AI reading of a public statement, made against the cited references with the confidence shown. It can be wrong. The quote, the tape and the references are all on this page; if something is off, use report an error below. full disclaimer →

Mentioned

distribution transformers generation step-up transformers power transformers

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