The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 33 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Fisher (2020): At 5% interest rates, every real estate investor goes bankrupt
“No, not a chance. They go to five to six percent. Every real estate investor that we know is bankrupt. They're not hanging on. They're broke and dead. And every home builder in America has no customers. That's a fact.”
Geremia: ESG will cease to be an investment term within three years
“The most exciting to me is that ESG will go away. It will not be an investment term in three years, and it has nothing to do with it not being super important.”
Dixon: Web3 payouts will pass Web2 payouts in next couple years
“I believe we'll see in the next couple of years, web three payouts past web two payouts.”
Sacca: GPT-5 will train in 2023 and be 6-8x better than GPT-4
“GPT five will be trained this year, and it'll be six to eight times better than four, maybe, maybe more.”
Citrone: US Core Inflation Has Peaked but Won't Fall Fast Enough
“I actually think inflation is rolling over. It's just going to take longer to come down to the acceptable levels, but it's rolling over. It's peaked in our view. The real risk on the headline is energy prices and maybe food prices. I mean, maybe headline can g…”
Lenehan: China will very shortly become the world's largest economy
“But from our perspective, we actually think that China's going to be the largest economy very shortly. It will grow. It'll continue to grow. At a rate higher than any other developed country kind of post COVID.”
Papic: There is basically no way the US will not get an Iran deal
“There's basically no way that we will not get an Iran deal.”
Jain: Helium will have more access points than any telecom by 2022
“We are expecting The Helium network to really be the biggest wireless network in the world by the end of next year, have more access points than any other centralized telecom provider by the end of next year, and have potentially even more users.”
Visser: Inflation will remain significantly higher than bond yields through 2026
“And the upcoming next five years, it's one thing to have lower for longer yields. It's another thing to have lower for longer yields when some people's benchmarks, meaning inflation or the cost of living are way above those yields. And that's the change that I…”
Rieder projects that the US economy will achieve 8% GDP in 2021
“I think the economy is going to grow. I mean, I think we're going to have an eight percent GDP this year.”
Ford predicts post-pandemic US inflation will dissipate within a year
“I think it's going to be natural to have some level of inflation here for a period of quarters. If it was a normal, gradual, cyclical recovery, or recovery coming out of a financial crisis like what you have all experienced, I think it's very, very different f…”
Paul: The NFT Space Will Probably Grow 100x By 2024
“So I think over the next three years, we're going to see the NFT space grow probably a hundred X in size.”
Aitken: UK and EU Will Have Framework Trade Deal by Summer 2020
“I think there's a good chance that we have the bare bones of a deal, if you will, about the future relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union.
I think we have the bare bones of a deal by the summer.”
Novogratz: Bitcoin and major currencies will trade on the same broker desks within five years
“There is absolutely no way that in a five years time, at least, you're not calling up your broker and saying, you know, dollar yen and cable and Bitcoin and Libra and gold, and they're going to all get traded on the same desk.”
Friedman estimates Opportunity Zones will increase US GDP by 0.4%
“We estimate it'll increase GDP by four-tenths of percent.”
Federal Reserve Terminal Rate Will Hit at Least 300 Basis Points
“So Fed funds doesn't get to 525 basis points like it did in O six. It gets to something like, oh, let's say, 300, which I think would surprise some people if we got there, but that's where I think it's the minimum.”
Cembalest: US municipal restructurings will rise continuously without federal intervention
“But absent intervention from the Fed or the Treasury, which I have a 95% confidence won't happen, we're gonna have Can you continuously rising stream of restructurings at the municipal level over the next few years?”
U.S. entitlement to discretionary spending ratio will hit 5:1 within a decade
“Because in 1970, the country spent the same amount on entitlement spending As it did on all of the rest of the non-entitlement discretionary spending. And so that one to one ratio became one and a half to one, then two to one. And now it's three to one, and it…”
Mullen: Pretium will likely acquire 15,000 to 20,000 houses in 2023
“And now in portfolios, as an example, we'll probably buy 15 to 20,000 houses this year. But almost entirely in portfolio form.”
Citrone: US Will Enter Mild Recession by Late 2022 or Early 2023
“I think it'll be a mild recession. I think we'll be there very quickly by the end of the year, early next year in the US.”
Wolfe: Varda Will Launch First Space Manufacturing Mission in Late 2022
“Next year, this time, so it's gonna be a Q-three, Q-four, 20, 22, they will launch the first manufacturing thing in space, and that was wheeled into existence.”
Localiza Earnings Will Grow 25% to 30% Annually Post-Acquisition
“So we expect earnings to go at 25, 30% a year with synergies and the growth of the market.”
Egan: Betterment Aims to Be First Fiduciary Advisor to IPO
“I think that's, in the long run, what we see ourselves as being, is The first company that goes public off the back of being a fiduciary advisor rather than a broker or mutual fund company.”
Hutchinson: Arctos will add another 20 sports teams to its portfolio
“I'm confident we'll have another 20 teams in that portfolio.”
Citrone: Europe will enter recession within months if not already
“I think Europe is, if not in recession now, be in recession within a few months.”
A-Rod Corp plans to take 6 to 7 portfolio companies public annually
“We're taking about six or seven public this year and 21, probably the same next year.”
Peters: US 2021 Budget Deficit Will Reach 15% to 20%
“So when you look at the U S and you look at just the massive deficit that we ran last year, this year's deficit is going to be 15 to 20% with an economy that's actually bouncing back to life.”
McCusker: PE Capital Calls Will Drop by at Least One-Third
“Our expectation is that calls and distribution will both be lower. I think when we analyzed it, calls and distributions were down by a third to half through the global financial crisis, and that's sort of our base case right now that we can expect At least a t…”
Masters: China's savings rate will drop rapidly as demographics mirror Japan
“China's Demographics are rapidly shifting from very healthy, as in, you know, a lot of working age people, to very Japanese-like, and as that occurs, you're going to get the same problems you had in Japan. Savings rates are going to start really dropping very …”
McDaniel predicts Scott Malpass will never leave Notre Dame
“Some people, Scott Malpass, will never leave Notre Dame. He's in his dream job.”
Schorr: Vice Cream will be a top-three super-premium ice cream by 2022
“Our goal is to, over the next The next five years is to build, you know, a national brand that has significant, you know, revenue and is a major player out there to be a third brand to Ben and Jerry's and Haagen does in the super premium space.”