The Ledger
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Tiger Global's 2021 fund will be a long, grueling struggle
“So the current fund has either got to be a big down fund, or they're going to eke it out. I suspect that's more likely. They're just going to take the time they need, redeploy money, move it around, ultimately return capital to investors, but it's going to be …”
Silicon Valley firms may be forced to separate their China operations
“Companies in Silicon Valley that have built big operations in China may face a point where they need to separate the two brands.”
Xu: China will reach 600 million middle-class consumers in 5-10 years
“So we will have maybe six hundred million middle class consumer in the next five to 10 years.”
Xu: China's EV leaders will become global market leaders
“And we believe that when China become the largest country
For both manufacturing and consumption, and China's leader will become a global leader.
And we see that happening in the world of electronics manufacturing, in the world of cell phone, and it will happe…”
Energy bottlenecks will persist without political cover for hydrocarbon capex
“Unless oil and gas companies are given unambiguous political cover to expand CapEx once more in the naughty stuff, the non-renewables, then I'm afraid it's difficult to imagine a rapid solution To the energy supply bottlenecks that we're all seeing right now, …”
Average inflation will exceed pre-2020 decade levels for several years
“That over the next several years, average inflation would turn out to be higher than in at least the 10 years prior to say, twenty-twenty. That would be my best guess.”
Sanctioned Russian crypto inflows would trigger immediate Western regulatory crackdowns
“And if you wanted to give those running US sanctions or European sanctions an opportunity to crack down on crypto markets, then that would be it. Either encourage or facilitate large inflows into crypto, or coins I should say, from people who might Be on the s…”
Commodity-tilted portfolios will outperform amid rising global resource nationalism
“Suffice to say, I would imagine that portfolios that continue to be structurally turned towards commodity and resources are going to do well, because I think we're probably on the front edge of a sustained period of commodities nationalism, which serves to bro…”
Papic: Escalation will trigger 1973-style commodity embargoes and stagflation
“And then you're going to start talking about embargoes of commodities, both self-imposed by Russia and perhaps imposed by the West. And then you're talking about inflationary impacts of this conflict being something akin to the 1973 Yom Kippur War, which is de…”
Papic: The Federal Reserve will not risk a recession to curb inflation
“I think the That is extremely sensitive to the political risks domestically in the U S and they will not look to curb inflation at the risk of recession. I don't think they will, but I'm in that camp.”
Papic: There is basically no way the US will not get an Iran deal
“There's basically no way that we will not get an Iran deal.”
Papic: Strategic Chinese tech and manufacturing will drive investor returns
“I do think strategic China will be the space where investors will have returns provided that it is legal for them to do that.”
Papic: China will remain dependent on semiconductor imports for the next decade
“China's trying its best to get to those sophisticated levels below five nanometer chip level, which it can't. And I think it's going to take a long time for them to do that. Much longer than people think. There's no Moore's law in getting to that level. And so…”
Papic: China will be very cautious regarding Taiwan due to economic risks
“As I said, I think China is going to be very cautious. I think for China, this is not the moment To create a huge downside risk to its economy.”
Papic: Europe will remilitarize and integrate independently of the US umbrella
“I think what it means Is Europe is going to remilitarize. If you have the mandate on the ESG side, buy some European defense stocks, but don't expect it to do so within the US umbrella. And I think that European integration is actually going to be one of the c…”
Papic: Global markets are entering a resilient commodity super cycle
“We are at a cusp of a commodity super cycle, and a recession could obviously curtail that. It would waylay it, but not for a significant period of time.”
Wolfe: Venture Returns and LP Cash Distributions Will Slow or Turn Negative
“Eventually the great things that we've seen over the past few years, which are exceptional returns, not just unrealized, but realized and returned and distributed cash to LPs is going to either slow down or reverse and potentially be negative, which is somethi…”
Wolfe: LP Indigestion Will Tip and Deflate the Venture Capital Market
“So what I think will tip this, and I would put my highest conviction that this is the cause, is LP indigestion.”
Wolfe: Crypto Market Cap Could Reach $5.5 Trillion by Displacing Gold
“If you accept just as a store of value the total gold market at 11 trillion dollars, half of that, five and a half trillion dollars, if you just had generational shift where people said, you know what, I prefer this in the same way they prefer Bonobos to Docke…”
Grinda: Psychedelics will follow cannabis path to legalization in 2020s
“We went from something that was criminalized to then being medicalized, to then decriminalized, to then legalized, and that led to the creation of countless of companies in the category. I think the same thing is going to happen with psilocybin, with ketamine,…”
Grinda: Crypto and Web3 will become mainstream after bubble bursts
“So we're seeing an entire reinvention of finance, and frankly, of the web, in a decentralized way. And that's going to go from fringe to mainstream, despite the fact that there are bubbles in that market right now. The bubble will burst, but the same thing tha…”
O'Sullivan: Connected, AI-enabled hardware will replace all physical devices within 20-30 years
“So hardware would need to be cloud connected, would need to have AI built into it, and would need to basically replace all existing physical devices over time. And so that was a megatrend. It would take 2030 years for that to fully play out.”
Trigg: Moat trajectory investing may lose its edge within 10 years
“To some extent, motor trajectory may not be the significant advantage 10 years from now that it was 10 years ago.”
Zook predicts Opendoor will completely dominate iBuying after Zillow's market exit
“Opendoor, we thought it was going to be Coke and Pepsi, and now it's just going to be Coke and Coke.”
Boehly predicted in 2021 that all states will allow sports gambling
“Is obviously not all the states allow gambling yet, but I think in 10 years time, that will be the case.”
Jain: Layer-one blockchains will eventually consolidate into an operating system duopoly
“So if I had to guess what the long-term outcome of layer one blockchains will be, I would expect it to be a similar duopoly as what we see in older operating systems.”
Jain: Helium will have more access points than any telecom by 2022
“We are expecting The Helium network to really be the biggest wireless network in the world by the end of next year, have more access points than any other centralized telecom provider by the end of next year, and have potentially even more users.”
Visser: Inflation will remain significantly higher than bond yields through 2026
“And the upcoming next five years, it's one thing to have lower for longer yields. It's another thing to have lower for longer yields when some people's benchmarks, meaning inflation or the cost of living are way above those yields. And that's the change that I…”
Visser: CRISPR and mRNA will extend lifespans without traditional pharmaceuticals
“With CRISPR and with the messenger RNA and knowing how to use it now, we will be able to solve a lot of problems going forward, which means we're going to be able to keep people alive longer without having to use pharmaceuticals.”
Visser: Biotech boom will not produce FAANG-style monopolies
“I don't envision this to be like the tech boom with Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and their ability to dominate the software and smartphone world in terms of getting these big things in web too. I think you're going to have these moonshots on the…”
Corlett: TDM will compound $1.5B into $15B over next 10 years
“We're now at 1.5, and we think we can keep compounding at the same rate for another 10 years. And over that time, the 1.5 turns into fifteen billion and still be able to invest Exactly the same way we've been investing the past 16 years.”
Corlett: Spotify and Square can grow revenue 20-30%+ for 10 years
“Take a couple of the companies we own at the moment, a Spotify or a Square, which we think can continue to grow revenue at 20, 30% plus for the next 10 years.”
Corlett: Guzman y Gomez can reach a $50B valuation
“In the next gen business, we've got a company like Guzman and Gomez, which we think is the McDonald's of the next generation. It's a great Australian Mexican food retail business that we think can be a fifty billion dollar business down the track.”
Sternlicht: Tokenization of finance will change the world like the internet
“And there's no question that the tokenization of finance and other things is going to change the world the way the internet changed the world.”
Sternlicht: Desperate SPAC sponsors will cut promotes by 25% to 75%
“The outcome of this will be as the two year anniversary of those SPACs births comes around, they would get desperate and they will start cutting their promotes 25, 50, 75%, just so they don't lose the sponsor equity capital they put up. So it's going to be a b…”
Graña: China's 2060 Decarbonization Pledge Will Be the Biggest Post-COVID Story
“Decarbonization by 20 60. That will be the biggest story after COVID. I think the market is commentators will look back on 2020 and we'll miss this, but we'll say many years later that was a big announcement.”
Rieder: US inflation will normalize to around 2% once reopening fades
“But if you normalize airfare, lodging, growth of used cars, et cetera, you're going to run at two-ish percent, maybe a little higher. But I think they're right on the transitory thing generally.”
Rieder projects that the US economy will achieve 8% GDP in 2021
“I think the economy is going to grow. I mean, I think we're going to have an eight percent GDP this year.”
Jensen: Bond sell-off and rate rise will exceed market expectations
“I believe that's setting up a much bigger bond sell-off and interest rate rise than the markets are expecting.”
Jensen: Policymakers will accept inflation over a deflationary market crash
“I think policymakers are much more likely to take inflation than a deflationary crash at this point. And there's so much that can be done in society by distributing the wealth via those mechanisms. So I think you're likely to see that.”
Jensen: Speculative companies lacking cash flows will get hammered if rates rise
“And the companies that may not have cash flows are extremely reliant on the current levels of liquidity and really low interest rates. Where if interest rates change, that phenomenon could change quite quickly, and those companies will get hammered.”
Private Equity Returns Will Drop Meaningfully Due to High Multiples
“And I think PE is going to be a good asset class. It's going to be a great asset class going forward, but we have to realize returns are coming down, and they're coming down meaningfully. They have to. Purchase price multiples are exploding, and so the higher …”
Ford predicts post-pandemic US inflation will dissipate within a year
“I think it's going to be natural to have some level of inflation here for a period of quarters. If it was a normal, gradual, cyclical recovery, or recovery coming out of a financial crisis like what you have all experienced, I think it's very, very different f…”
Casdin: Drug development success rates will rise and costs will fall
“Our industry over the next 10 years, and I can say that comfortably, drugs are going to be higher chance of approval, higher chance of efficacy. Probability of success is going to go up continually, and cost of that success is going to come down.”
Casdin: All institutional allocators will have 5-10% life sciences exposure by 2031
“If I go to that conference in 10 years, everyone's gonna have exposure, and it's gonna be five to 10%.”
Casdin: Life sciences can compound at a 20% CAGR over next decade
“And I still think very confidently that you can compound at a 20% Tager over the next decade while buckle up because it's going to be very volatile and it's not going to happen in a straight line.”
Grantham: Global warming will reach 3.0 to 3.5 degrees Celsius
“The truth is we are not going to contain the climate warming of one and a half degrees or two degrees, that we are struggling to determine where in the zone over three degrees centigrade we'll end up. My guess is between three and three and a half degrees cent…”
Grantham: Electric vehicles, wind, and solar will overwhelm fossil fuels
“And the green VC part of it, which is springing out of the woodwork, is going to have a very high top line growth rate. Of course, electric cars are going to pound to death The growth rate of gasoline cars. Of course, wind and solar is going to overwhelm gas e…”