The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 414 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Hammer: Ramsey's 6-7% Retirement Withdrawal Rule Is Dangerous
“They suggest you can withdraw six to seven percent a year. And just live off of it forever. Cause it averages 10% a year, but it makes no sense. Like no financial model agrees with that. You, four percent has a 95% chance of completion. Even four percent is no…”
Lyon: Evidence Does Not Support Claims That Seed Oils Derange Metabolism
“The evidence doesn't support that seed oils are causing the derangement that people are saying.”
Dr. Moore: Excessive carnivore diets can induce insulin resistance
“You can over carnivore yourself into insulin resistance. High levels of arachidonic acid can send you into insulin resistance as well.”
Brooks: Dark Triad personalities are disproportionately social activists
“There's a really interesting papers that we've seen recently, the dark triads, they're disproportionately social activists.”
Lonsdale: Harris-Warren price gouging proposal covers 23,000 large companies
“Well, if you look at the price gouging law that Kamala Harris and Senator Warren and all these people on the very extreme left were putting forward, it's actually something that applies to about 23,000 big companies, and it would give them a lot of arbitrary p…”
Gabbard: Google shut down my campaign AdSense during 2020 debate peak
“I ended up being the most searched candidate of the night, that debate night, which is what I had hoped for, and, ah, right at that time of peak interest, Google shut down our AdSense account with no warning, no explanation, no ability.”
Gabbard: Studies show Gmail sends most Republican campaign emails to spam
“Studies are done how Google in particular, but essentially big tech, Has been proven to divert the vast majority of, you know, if you're a Republican running for office and you're sending out a, you know, a bulk email, most of those emails for conservatives Re…”
Herjavec: 4,400 people became millionaires on SpaceX's public listing day
“Like SpaceX went public, 4400 people became millionaires on that day. 400 people became deca-millionaires.”
McDonald: MIT study shows AI essay writing reduces brain activation
“It's kind of new, but it's a study out of MIT that's shown that, okay, they had people Use AI versus Google versus nothing to write essays, and what they found was that over time it led people that used AI specifically like less engagement in their brain, less…”
Eyal: 'Spiritual but not religious' people have higher depression risk
“Turns out those people are much more likely to suffer from depression and anxiety disorder than people who do affiliate with some kind of religious community.”
Galloway: Mississippi Average Household Income Equals or Exceeds UK and Germany
“If you take the poor state, Mississippi, the average household income there is still the same or higher than it is in the UK, Germany, South Korea, Japan.”
Galloway: 66% of women under 30 have boyfriends vs 33% of young men
“Two out of three women under the age of 30 has a boyfriend. One out of three men under the age of 30 has a girlfriend. Why? Because women are dating older.”
Sanchez: Confident wrong speakers are rated more credible than hesitant correct speakers
“But a really scary study, they did a follow-on study that showed people who argued more confidently but were wrong were rated even more credible than those who argued not confidently but were right.”
Liemandt: Harvard published research showing AI tutors outperform Harvard teachers
“Harvard has published an article that says AI tutors are better than Harvard teachers.”
Masad: Replit launched the market's first end-to-end coding agent in Sept 2024
“And so we launched in September, 20, 24, and it was the first coding agent on the market where you can just, like, put a prompt, and it will, like, make you an application, it will create a database for you, it will, like, Put it out, deploy it, and scale it f…”
Masad: Replit grew from $10M to $100M ARR in 6–7 months
“And our revenue that year climbed to ten million ARR, and then when we got out of beta and the agent got really good, that's when we went to a hundred million ARR in a matter of six, seven months.”
Malik: 150 Minutes of Weekly Cardio Is as Effective as Viagra
“There's actually a study that shows that if you exercise a 150 minutes a week, current moderate intensity cardiovascular exercise, it's as good as taking a Viagra.”
Malik: Gynecologists and Urologists Receive Minimal Training on the Clitoris
“Even in our training, there's very little discussion about the clitoris. We're just now starting to have this discussion like, hey, the clitoris has foreskin. Hey, it can get smegma. It can, there's other issues. You have to look at the clitoris and you have t…”
Loeffler: Trump administration is cutting 10 regulations per new one
“President Trump is Leading the charge on that again. He did it in 2016, eliminating multiple regulations for each new one. We're doing it again, at least eliminating 10 for every new regulation”
Dr. Moore: South Korea passed the demographic point of no return
“I think in most countries in the world, the, what I have seen is that there's not even a population being born to replace the population. So we are at a certain point, there's a critical point where there's no return, and I think South Korea's definitely hit i…”
Dan Go: Ozempic Users Without Resistance Training Risk Osteoporosis and Severe Muscle Loss
“Like, I've seen people go on Ozempic and not eat high protein, not do resistance training, and then we're starting to see that people are coming up with osteoporosis. Starting to see people lose a shit ton of lean mass.”
Dan Go: Higher Testosterone Makes Men More Independent Thinkers
“They've done studies where it's like when you have more testosterone in your body, when you're, when a guy has more testosterone in his body, he becomes more of an independent thinker.”
Brooks: Non-religious people tend to be less happy than religious people
“We find that non-religious people tend to be less happy than religious people because they don't think that there's something big and good and beautiful that, that, that lies in store for all of us if we live right”
Van Der Beek: The CIA weaponized 'conspiracy theory' to discredit critics
“And also, the truth is, conspiracy theory itself Was something utilized by the CIA to put people in their place.”
Brooks: Women's happiness has plummeted over twenty years to match men's
“Over the past 20 years or so, women have converged downward to the unhappiness levels of men. So they've converged, and at first I thought, great, men are getting happier. Women are getting unhappier is what we find, and they're getting unhappier very quickly.”
Saladino: US permits up to 10,000 food chemicals compared to 500 in Europe
“In Europe, there are maybe four to 500 of these chemicals. In the United States, there are five to 10,000.”
Streeter says claims of universal loneliness crisis among young Americans are false
“You have to be careful when you're saying, like, all young people are suffering a crisis of loneliness, because it's actually not true. There are certain types of young people that are very lonely, and it's like, you want to tailor your response to that popula…”
Israetel: COVID vaccines were highly effective and saved 20 million lives
“The COVID vaccine situation was largely uncontroversial, insanely effective, and saved probably twenty million lives worldwide.”
Galloway: Mississippi's Average Income Matches or Exceeds the UK and Germany
“So, for example, if you take the poor state, Mississippi, the average household income there is still the same or higher than it is in the UK, Germany, South Korea, Japan.”
Galloway: Corporate Tax Rates Are at Their Lowest Since 1938
“Corporations are paying the lowest tax rate since 1938.”
Galloway: Amazon increased third-party seller take rate from 20% to 45%
“Amazon, 20 years ago, if you were a third-party marketer or a third-party reseller selling your products on Amazon, they took about 20%. Of your gross dollar volume, now they take 45, because they kind of own the market.”
Sanchez: China Uses Yuan for Most Cross-Border Transactions
“China has started to use its own currency for most cross-border transactions.”
Dr. Lyon: GLP-1 muscle loss stems from poor diet, not the drug
“The reason people lose lean tissue on these medications, which is the other big criticism, is because they are not training, and they're not eating dietary protein.”
Sanchez: Ozempic costs under $5 to make but sells for $1,000 monthly
“Well, Yale says that Ozempic costs less than five dollars a month to manufacture, And yet we're getting charged a thousand dollars a month for this drug. While the exact same product can be bought in Canada for a 155 dollars a month and 59 dollars a month in G…”
Gabbard: U.S. threatened Mexico with sanctions over GMO crop ban for Monsanto
“Mexico has banned some form of GMO crops. The United States government is intervening and threatening Mexico with economic sanctions. On behalf of Monsanto, ah, and the, you know.”
Gabbard: Zelensky has taken total control of media and eliminated opposition
“Well, let's look at what President Zelensky has done since this war started, instituted martial law, taken over complete control of the media, total control. It is now merged together under this one, 24 hour station that is, is literally run by the government.…”
Sanchez: Major Democratic donors threatened to withhold 30 million unless Biden withdrew
“A bunch of the big Democratic donors are saying, I will keep my thirty million dollars I was going to donate to the Biden campaign unless they step down.”
Rove predicts Democrats will not replace Joe Biden with Gavin Newsom
“If they do hot swap them, it'll be, I don't know, but it won't be Newsom.”
Sanchez: Sitting within 25 feet of an underperformer reduces performance 30%
“If you sit next to an underperformer, if an underperformer is sat within a 25 foot radius of a bunch of normal people like you and me, they take your performance down by 30%.”
Altucher: Jerry Seinfeld wrote NYT op-ed attacking him, Cuomo emailed it
“Even Jerry Seinfeld wrote an op-ed in the New York Times just trashing me, which then Andrew Cuomo emailed to, like, everybody in New York State”
Sanchez: UFC shares only 13% of revenue compared to NBA's 50%
“NBA all the way to MLB are somewhere between 51 and 45%.
UFC is 13 to 14%.”
Johnson: Project Blueprint costs $1,500 monthly, not $2 million annually
“The headline with Blueprint is that it's two million dollars a year. It's not. It's, you know, like, 1500 dollars a month, which includes your groceries.”
Sexton: 60% to 70% of marriages end in divorce or unhappy coexistence
“You know, 50% or so of marriages end catastrophically, meaning they divorce. Another 10 to 20% either separate but never file for divorce, go out for milk and never come back, or they just sort of unhappily stay together and under surveys basically say, yeah, …”
Sanchez: 70% to 80% of Listed Businesses Never Sell
“70 to 80% of businesses will never actually sell that are even listed for sale. Seven to eight out of every 10 owners who walk into the market to sell something walk home with nothing.”
Sanchez: Vividly fantasizing about success degrades actual performance
“The more vividly you fantasize about success, the worse you perform.”
Sanchez: NYU Study Shows Positive Fantasizing Reduces Job Offers and Earnings
“So there's this study we found in by NYU psychologists tracking college graduates entering the job market. And they basically found that the students who spent the most time in quote unquote, I love this line, positive fantasies about landing their dream job s…”
Sanchez: There is zero correlation between having ADHD and becoming a millionaire
“Also, there is zero correlation. Between having ADHD and being a millionaire, like zero.”
Sanchez: UPenn study found positive fantasizing reduced weight loss by 24 pounds
“At University of Penn, they found the same pattern in weight loss, actually. Like the women who fantasized most positively about their future selves, they lost 24 pounds less in one year than the women who pictured the process going badly.”