The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 3,118 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 167 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Marcus: OpenAI's Project Orion failed and became GPT-4.5
“So OpenAI tried to build GPT-V and they had a thing called Project Orion and it actually failed. And eventually got released as GPT four and a half. So what they thought was going to be GPT five just didn't meet expectations.”
Marcus: Models like o1 are not systematically better than GPT-4
“Models like O-I are not systematically better than GPT-IV. There's, they're better in certain use cases. Especially ones where you can create data in advance.”
Marcus: Gen AI's core business model will be surveillance and ads
“The business model of gen AI will be surveillance and hyper-targeted ads, just like it has been for social media.”
Amazon Will Not Display Tariff Charges on Listings or Amazon Haul
“You know, it's, this is an incredibly dynamic situation, and never and always are difficult questions, but this was considered for our ultra-low-cost store alone, Amazon Hall. It was considered. It was not approved. It's not happening. It was not considered fo…”
Kantrowitz: Regulators will likely break up Google and potentially Meta
“The vibe here is that we're going to see breakups very likely of Google and potentially of Facebook.”
Roy: One-Third of OpenAI's Projected $28B Revenue Comes from SoftBank
“They're expecting next year, 12 and a half billion. That's gonna then go to twenty eight billion dollars, and a third of that revenue is going to come from SoftBank. SoftBank spending on OpenAI for all of its own companies and portfolio companies.”
Hendrycks: Superintelligence race will incentivize preemptive sabotage of rival AI projects
“I think that form of competition would be very dangerous, and because there's a risk of loss of control, and because it might incentivize states to engage in preventive sabotage or preemptive sabotage to disable these sorts of projects.”
Hendrycks: Russia and China may threaten US data centers over superintelligence progress
“If the US were pulling ahead both Russia and China may have a substantial interest in saying, hey, cut this out. Pulling ahead to develop super intelligence, which could give it a huge advantage and an ability to crush crush them. They'd say, you don't get to …”
LeCun: Breakthrough scientific AI will not be an LLM
“No, not, not in the current form. I mean, and whatever form of AI would be able to do that will not be LLMs. They might use LLMs as one component.”
LeCun: Scaling up LLMs will not produce human-level AI
“We are not going to get to human level AI by just scaling up LLMs. This is just not going to happen.”
LeCun: Digital superintelligence will not happen within two years
“Whatever you can hear from some of my more adventurous colleagues it's not going to happen within the next two years. There's absolutely no way in hell to, you know, pardon my French. The, you know, the idea that we're going to have, you know, a country of gen…”
Baszucki completely disavows Hindenburg Research's allegations of inflated Roblox user metrics
“On this point in particular, you know, on TV, publicly on earnings call, we completely disavow the whole allegation. And the interesting thing is investors can look at the ratio of the time on Roblox to the hours on Roblox to the bookings on On Roblox, that th…”
Enjeti: A Future Democratic Administration Will Cancel Musk's Federal Contracts
“Yeah, if you're whoever, if you're Gavin Newsom administration, you're done. Like, it's, I'm gonna use the exact executive order precedent, and all of those contracts are getting canceled.”
Enjeti: DeepSeek Model Cost Over $1 Billion to Train
“This idea that it's six million dollars or whatever to run is ludicrous. It obviously cost over a billion dollars to train the model before it eventually got to the point where it could run off of that six million.”
Hoffman: OpenAI meant open API access, not open source models
“In terms of being open, there's lots of different parameters of open, and open AI has been, you know, working to have, like, open, you know, kind of you know, with, obviously, identity and registration for safety, but open AI, API access. It wasn't called open…”
Hoffman: Elon Musk approved OpenAI's closed-model strategy as co-CEO
“Elon was part of that decision for you know, as kind of co-CEO in terms of making that decision. And so that's how open AI has always operated.”
Demis Hassabis predicts AGI is three to five years away
“I think you know, I would say probably like three to five years away.”
Demis Hassabis expects Google spinout Isomorphic Labs to cure all diseases
“One is curing all diseases one day. Which I think we're going to do with isomorphic and the work we're doing there or our spin out, our drug discovery spin out.”
Newton predicts Grammarly will be dead by the end of 2025
“Oh, can I give you a prediction? Grammarly dead by end of 2025.”
Arbaugh: Consumer products will require Neuralink compatibility to sell
“And so one day I think everything is gonna be, like, neural link compatible. Like, companies will have to put that in their product in order for it to sell. If it's not neural link compatible, people will be like, well, why, why are we even using this?”
Benioff: Microsoft will likely fast-follow Salesforce into agentic AI
“Maybe Microsoft will pivot like they usually do and fast follow us, you know, into this new agentic world because I think that's really where all the action is going to be.”
Benioff: Prompt engineering was invented at Salesforce
“Even prompt engineering was invented at Salesforce, which we're very proud of.”
Gomez: AI will never cause mass unemployment of humans
“Well, because I think that we will never see mass unemployment of humans. I think that this technology is going to unlock more opportunities. It will let us do more as opposed to Scaling back what we do.”
Brown: Retail pharmacy chains CVS and Walgreens are going away
“All you have to do is look at a chart of CVS, which is in a 60% drawdown from a tie, or look at Walgreens Boots Alliance, which is in a 90% drawdown. These companies are going away.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI Projects 100x Revenue Surge by 2029 Driven by ChatGPT
“Chat GPT is what open AI expects to lead its revenue which it expects to increase, it expects revenue, its revenue to increase a hundred fold by 20, 29. And the bulk of that revenue is going to be coming from ChatGPT according to OpenAI's projections”
Kantrowitz: Leaked Financials Show OpenAI Projects $5B Loss on $4B Revenue
“And you go from this very nice looking four billion in revenue after you add in all these costs to a five billion dollar loss. And that excludes stock based compensation, by the way, which is going to be another major cost.”
OpenAI Board Fired Sam Altman Because He Was Consistently Untruthful
“Well, the real reason was that the board was concerned that Sam was not telling the truth. He was He just was not a reliable source of information, and it wasn't just the board members who felt that, there were top executives who felt that as well.”
Silicon Valley Executives Report Growing Discontent Over Sam Altman's Disorganization
“Last week I talked to some people in the valley and A couple of times it came up that there are the, there's growing discontent about Sam Altman's general lack of focus and people are saying he's disorganized and they're trying too many things.”
Roy: Antitrust pressure will stall Apple's lucrative services revenue growth
“Tim Cook and Apple are quietly one of the most aggressive monopolists in terms of how they build the ecosystem and juice that services revenue and that kind of growth, I think will stall out. I think we're going to start to see some kind of pressure on bundlin…”
Russian Funders Pressured Tenet Media to Blame Ukraine for Moscow Attack
“There's also the Russians pushed them to create a video tying the terror attack in Moscow to Ukraine, even though, like, ISIS was claiming responsibility at that time.”
Roy: Russia Is Almost Certainly Funding Far-Left US Influencers Too
“Well, no, but I am positive that there's also very left wing influencers who are also receiving whether directly or indirectly money from Russia.”
Hari warns of opioid-scale death toll from GLP-1 eating disorder misuse
“I think we get an opioid like death toll of young girls who use these drugs to starve themselves.”
Klarna cut outsourced customer service spend by $40 million using AI
“We on average would have like a about 3000, it depends on because you have to remember also like our, just like Amazon, We have much more transactions around Christmas because we're very online, you know, so there will always be variations in these numbers, bu…”
Wood: Claude 3.5 Haiku Outperforms All Other Models on the Planet
“Claude III.V Haiku outperforms all other models on the planet.”
AWS's Wood: Foundation AI models will diversify rather than become commodities
“My guess is that these models will not, you know, kind of commodify. My guess is that they will diversify increasingly over time, and that the idea that there's, these models will become commodities Defined as, you know, you can hot swap them and that their ec…”
Lessig: Ex-OpenAI Staff Remained Silent Fearing Equity Clawbacks
“I mean, I've spoken to ex-employees who've said, look, I've not done X, Y, and Z because I feared the club acts. So they can say, and they never enforced it. They didn't need to enforce it to have the effect, which it had for a significant number of people”
Clark: Advancing AI will probably require few complex breakthroughs beyond simple scalable ideas
“And I guess my naive view is the amount of things we'll need to do that are extra special will probably be quite small. And the challenge is coming up with simple ideas like next token prediction, but scale for probably other simple ideas we need to figure out…”
Clark: AI sentience could become a field of study with systemic risks
“I'm saying that we may enter the weird zone where that becomes a thing that people study. And I think that if like sentience is a thing, you could imagine like weird versions of it leading to certain types of misuses or problems in the system as well.”
Doshi: Search engine traffic will drop over 25% before 2026
“I mean, I think there's a very high probability it is greater than that number in a shorter span of time.”
OpenAI is not maximum-profit seeking or controlled by Microsoft
“You know, we're definitely not maximum profit seeking, although you could talk to Elon about some of his ventures for that one. And we open source a lot of stuff, we'll open source more in the future, and we're certainly not controlled by Microsoft.”
Kantrowitz predicts OpenAI will lose its AI market leadership position
“My first prediction is that OpenAI, which is the leader in the field today, is going to lose the throne. That's right. OpenAI will lose the throne. It will still factor in, but it's not going to be the leader in the field that it is today.”
Kantrowitz: Broad AI chatbots will not achieve long-term success without AGI
“It's just not a model for a product. That has long-term success if we don't reach general, ah, generative, ah, sorry, general artificial intelligence.”
Ray Dalio predicted an economic crash virtually every year since the 1980s
“What we found was nonstop since the 19 eighties, Ray Dalio has been predicting economic calamity. Every, virtually every single year he has predicted a giant crash.”
Bridgewater forced employees to hit a daily quota of negative peer ratings
“What Bridgewater starts doing is it starts telling employees, you have to rate a certain number of incidents per day. You have to put in dots. And not only that, but a certain percentage of your dots must be negative.”
Internal HR memos warned Ray Dalio of continuous employee fear at Bridgewater
“I went and I got the internal HR emails. I got their own memos, people telling Ray, this is a self Defeating loop. That people are scared that at any moment they may be fired. And the real scary thing for me about Ray Dalio and Bridgewater is that he knew, he …”
Albergotti: Post-Cambridge Analytica studies show social media disinformation doesn't sway elections
“We've seen so many studies that have come out since Cambridge Analytica that have basically backed up that point of view, which is like, you know, even though there's tons of information on, so disinformation on social media, people are not really ultimately s…”