Dan Hendrycks (Center for AI Safety) discusses his policy paper on superintelligence strategy and geopolitical stability with Alex Kantrowitz.
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hendrycks: Russia and China may threaten US data centers over superintelligence progress
“If the US were pulling ahead both Russia and China may have a substantial interest in saying, hey, cut this out. Pulling ahead to develop super intelligence, which could give it a huge advantage and an ability to crush crush them. They'd say, you don't get to …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hendrycks: Automated AI R&D could compress a decade of progress into one year
“If you could have one AI do that, then you could make, you know, a 100,000 copies of these and have them perform research simultaneously. So that could lead to some very substantial acceleration in the rate of development. You might get a decade's worth of AI …”
Insight
Hendrycks: Fast-moving automated AI R&D loops are nearly impossible to de-risk
“Meanwhile, some automated AI research and development loop that goes extremely quickly with very little human oversight, that seems hard to de-risk and get the risks to be at a negligible level, just because it's so fast and so ah, and there's so little human …”
Opinion
Hendrycks: AI poses no immediate extinction risk because it cannot make PowerPoints
“So, I don't think AI poses a risk of extinction like today, ok? I don't think that they're powerful enough to do that. They, because they can't make PowerPoints yet, right? They don't have Agential skills. They can't accomplish tasks that require many hours to…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hendrycks: Cyberattacks and bioweapons are top malicious AI risks within two years
“In the shorter term when AIs get more agential, I'd be concerned about AIs causing cyber attacks on critical infrastructure, possibly by as directed by a rogue actor. There'd also be the risk of AIs facilitating the development of bioweapons in particular pand…”
Insight
Hendrycks: Loss-of-Control Risk Stems from Competitive Pressure to Fully Automate AI R&D
“Loss of control risks, which I think primarily stem from people, an AI company trying to automate all of AI research and development, and they can't have humans check in on that process because that would slow them down too much. If you have a human do a week …”