superintelligence

also referred to as: super intelligence

26 statements across 17 episodes · 8 bullish · 9 bearish · 13 people on the record · first statement Dec 13, 2023 by Sam Altman · said 1 times in 1 episodes since 2026 · across every show →

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brought up most by Alex Kantrowitz (1)

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Everything said about superintelligence, oldest first

Dec 13, 2023
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Approaching superintelligence makes everyone involved more stressed and anxious
“I think everybody involved in this, as we get closer and closer to superintelligence Everybody involved gets more stressed and more anxious, and we realize the stakes are higher and higher, and I think that will explode.”
Sam Altman Dec 13, 2023 ▶ 0:34 OpenAI CEO Sam Altman: As We Get Closer to Superintelligence, Everyone Gets More Stressed & Anxious
Aug 7, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bostrom predicts superintelligence could compress 20,000 years of research into a flash
“So all these sort of science fiction-like technologies that maybe we would develop if we had like, you know, 20,000 years for human scientists to work for it, we probably will have a cure for aging and perfect virtual reality and space colonies and all the res…”
Nick Bostrom Aug 7, 2024 ▶ 24:59 The Path to SuperIntelligence & Escaping the Simulation — With Nick Bostrum
Mar 28, 2025 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hendrycks: Superintelligence race will incentivize preemptive sabotage of rival AI projects
“I think that form of competition would be very dangerous, and because there's a risk of loss of control, and because it might incentivize states to engage in preventive sabotage or preemptive sabotage to disable these sorts of projects.”
Dan Hendrycks Mar 28, 2025 ▶ 48:36 AI's Rising Risks: Hacking, Virology, Loss of Control — With Dan Hendrycks
Mar 28, 2025
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hendrycks: Geopolitical deterrence will delay superintelligence development
“This is why I think it might take a while for superintelligence to be developed, because there'll be deterrence around it later on.”
Dan Hendrycks Mar 28, 2025 ▶ 57:27 AI's Rising Risks: Hacking, Virology, Loss of Control — With Dan Hendrycks
Jun 14, 2025 negative
Opinion
Roy: Tech industry rebranded to superintelligence to dodge unmet AGI promises
“Clearly the messaging worked. Everyone started saying it. It absolved people from having to achieve AGI or when everyone is saying AGI is already here, yet life doesn't feel significantly different.”
Ranjan Roy Jun 14, 2025 ▶ 20:50 Sam Altman’s Gentle Singularity, Zuck’s AI Power Play, Burning Of The Waymos
Jun 18, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Patel: Individuals will eventually train superintelligences in basements
“The cost of training, the systems is declining so fast that Literally you will be able to train a super intelligence in a basement at some point in the future.”
Dwarkesh Patel Jun 18, 2025 ▶ 56:49 Dwarkesh Patel: AI Continuous Improvement, Intelligence Explosion, Memory, Frontier Lab Competition
Jun 18, 2025
Insight
Patel: One-month lead in intelligence explosion yields winner-take-all dominance
“Look, if there is an intelligence explosion, it has a really tough dynamic because if you're a month ahead, you will kick off this loop much faster than anybody else. And what that means is that you will you will be a month ahead to super intelligence, but nob…”
Dwarkesh Patel Jun 18, 2025 ▶ 28:53 Dwarkesh Patel: AI Continuous Improvement, Intelligence Explosion, Memory, Frontier Lab Competition
Jul 9, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Siegler: Meta cannot win the AI race if AGI is 2 years away
“And if we're only a couple of years away, do I think that Meta can win that race? Not if we're a couple of years away, I don't think so.”
M.G. Siegler Jul 9, 2025 ▶ 35:43 Apple’s Anthropic Flirtation, Can Meta Build Superintelligence?, AI Browser Wars — With M.G. Siegler
Jul 14, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Levie: Current AI scaling laws will achieve superintelligence
“And I think what you're seeing with scaling is we will be able to certainly accomplish our collective definition of super intelligence. With the current, ah, the current path we're on with scaling laws.”
Aaron Levie Jul 14, 2025 ▶ 19:27 OpenAI’s Windsurf Crash, Grok’s Wild Week, Replace Tim Cook? — With Aaron Levie
Jul 30, 2025 negative
Opinion
Amodei: 'AGI' and 'superintelligence' are meaningless marketing terms
“So I think these terms are totally meaningless. I don't know what AGI is. I don't know what super intelligence is. It sounds like a marketing term.”
Dario Amodei Jul 30, 2025 ▶ 6:03 Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei: AI's Potential, OpenAI Rivalry, GenAI Business, Doomerism
Aug 4, 2025 negative
Opinion
Kantrowitz: OpenAI and Meta are building the exact same thing using LLMs
“I'll stand on the table here and say it's the same thing. I think it's, if there were different techniques, I think this is really what it comes down to. If there were different techniques to build AGI and super intelligence, I would say, okay, sure, you know,…”
Alex Kantrowitz Aug 4, 2025 ▶ 28:02 Mark Zuckerberg’s Personal Superintelligence, Layoffs & Payoffs, Writing With AI — With M.G. Siegler
Aug 4, 2025 negative
Opinion
Siegler: AI industry shift to 'superintelligence' branding is purely marketing
“It's, it just is obviously all marketing at this point, and so I do feel like that, you know, you gotta at some point pin people down to say like, what are you actually trying to build, and what is the outcome of that going to be?”
M.G. Siegler Aug 4, 2025 ▶ 27:13 Mark Zuckerberg’s Personal Superintelligence, Layoffs & Payoffs, Writing With AI — With M.G. Siegler
Nov 10, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kantrowitz: AI price wars will destroy OpenAI's profit-sharing business models
“Somebody else is just gonna develop super intelligence as well, and they're gonna get into a price war. So how long can you say, I want a party of the profit of this drug that you're gonna develop with our technology? Where like somebody else can be like, well…”
Alex Kantrowitz Nov 10, 2025 ▶ 23:55 OpenAI Bailout?, Elon’s $1 Trillion Pay Deal, Amazon Sues Perplexity
Nov 12, 2025 neutral
Insight
Suleyman: Superintelligence and AGI are goals rather than specific methods
“Superintelligence and AGI are really goals rather than methods, and I think that the ambition is to create superhuman performance at most or all human tasks.”
Mustafa Suleyman Nov 12, 2025 ▶ 1:55 Could LLMs Be The Route To Superintelligence? — With Mustafa Suleyman
Dec 18, 2025
Insight
Altman: Superintelligence Means Outperforming Human CEOs and Presidents Unaided
“A candidate definition for superintelligence is when a system can do a better job being president United States, CEO of a major company, you know, running a very large scientific lab than any person can, even with the assistance of AI.”
Sam Altman Dec 18, 2025 ▶ 56:20 Sam Altman: How OpenAI Wins, ChatGPT’s Future, AI Buildout Logic, IPO in 2026?
Dec 18, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Altman thinks AI superintelligence is "a long way off"
“I think something like that is like an interesting framework for super intelligence. I think it's like a long way off, but I would love to have like a cleaner definition this time around.”
Sam Altman Dec 18, 2025 ▶ 57:10 Sam Altman: How OpenAI Wins, ChatGPT’s Future, AI Buildout Logic, IPO in 2026?
Dec 24, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Albergati: OpenAI chip push is about inference costs, not superintelligence
“So I think when you talk about like opening AI, building its own chips and data centers and all this stuff, that's all about like them for seeing the future where there's so many people using these things, those it's expensive to run in the data center. They'r…”
Reed Albergotti Dec 24, 2025 ▶ 12:45 2025 In Review, 2026 Predictions: Meta, NVIDIA, Tesla, OpenAI, Google, Microsoft
Feb 23, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Levie: Altman's 2028 superintelligence timeline is totally reasonable
“I think that, that there's kind of, that seems to be totally reasonable based on the trajectory that we're on. And I would bet that, that Sam has an even a far higher bar for what his definition of, you know, intellectual or whatever the term was, then even I …”
Aaron Levie Feb 23, 2026 ▶ 23:05 OpenAI Closes in on $100 Billion, OpenClaw Acquired, AI’s Productivity Question — With Aaron Levie
Apr 13, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Saint-Marc: Superintelligence will emerge from multi-agent scaling, not single models
“We had this strong thesis and vision that the intelligence will come not just from building ever smarter and ever bigger and more powerful single agents But more through what we call horizontal scaling. So we distributed systems, a lot of agents coming togethe…”
Guillaume de Saint-Marc Apr 13, 2026 ▶ 3:54 How AI Agent Swarms Might Be AI's Next Leap — With Guillaume de Saint-Marc
Jun 4, 2026 positive
Opinion
Hinton: Alignment paths exist to prevent superintelligence from destroying humanity
“I guess I'm more optimistic than I was a year or two ago, because I see that it might be possible to design these new beings so they care about us. It also might be possible to use Yoshua's technique of designing new, new beings that can't actually perform act…”
Geoffrey Hinton Jun 4, 2026 ▶ 51:32 AI Pioneer Geoffrey Hinton: AI Is Conscious, Superintelligence is Coming, And We Should Be Worried
Jun 4, 2026 negative
Opinion
Hinton warns humanity currently has no idea how to align superintelligence
“And when it comes, we've no idea how to be safe.”
Geoffrey Hinton Jun 4, 2026 ▶ 5:14 AI Pioneer Geoffrey Hinton: AI Is Conscious, Superintelligence is Coming, And We Should Be Worried
Jun 4, 2026
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hinton predicts artificial superintelligence will likely arrive within twenty years
“I think we'll probably get it within 20 years. That's all I'm happy to say at present.”
Geoffrey Hinton Jun 4, 2026 ▶ 4:55 AI Pioneer Geoffrey Hinton: AI Is Conscious, Superintelligence is Coming, And We Should Be Worried
Aug 19, 2026 positive
Insight
Bostrom: Natural language AI interfaces provide a safer alignment buffer before superintelligence
“This gives us more sort of surface area to work with. Like you can more easily understand and interact with these systems because they have human double concepts and you can talk with them.”
Nick Bostrom Aug 19, 2026 ▶ 42:45 Nick Bostrom: Worries About AI Existential Risk Just Became More Concrete
Aug 19, 2026
Insight
Bostrom: Current Compute Might Suffice For Superintelligence If Algorithmic Bottlenecks Clear
“Turns out there is like some big hobbling that we have unwittingly, like some, something we were doing wrong that just made these systems way less efficient than they could be. And when somebody figures out how to remove that, like maybe the current Compute is…”
Nick Bostrom Aug 19, 2026 ▶ 27:37 Nick Bostrom: Worries About AI Existential Risk Just Became More Concrete
Aug 19, 2026 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bostrom: Weak aligned superintelligence could help align stronger superintelligence
“If you get a kind of weak super intelligence that is For the most part aligned, we might then be able to use that to make a more powerful form of super intelligence that is more reliably aligned.”
Nick Bostrom Aug 19, 2026 ▶ 19:02 Nick Bostrom: Worries About AI Existential Risk Just Became More Concrete
Aug 19, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bostrom: AI Will Reach Domain Superintelligence Before Achieving Across-The-Board AGI
“At the point where it is as good as an average human in everything, it might already be super intelligent in some key relevant domains for AI research.”
Nick Bostrom Aug 19, 2026 ▶ 40:07 Nick Bostrom: Worries About AI Existential Risk Just Became More Concrete
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