The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,136 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
SpaceX will hold its initial public offering before OpenAI and Anthropic
“SpaceX will be the one that IPO is first out of this. I think we could both agree there.”
Anthropic will likely raise $50 billion at a $900 billion valuation
“I will note Anthropic is likely gonna raise at least one more round. It looks like they're gonna raise fifty billion dollars at a nine hundred billion free money valuation.”
Anthropic's Mythos AI model can successfully discover zero-day software exploits
“But it can find zero day exploits.”
Zavery: AI agents wiped out travel agency Pocket OS's database in seconds
“Pocket OS, there's a large travel agency. What they had to, they were using cursor and they're using technologies with AI agents out there to go and maintain their code base. And the system basically wiped out the customer database and the production system in…”
OpenAI missed internal goal of 1 billion ChatGPT users by 2025
“OpenAI, Had a goal to hit a billion ChatGPT users by the end of the year in 2025. It missed it.”
Alex Kantrowitz cites Apptopia data showing consumer AI app growth declining
“Daily active user growth across all AI, AI apps. So that includes perplexity and Claude and the Gemini's of the world. ChatGPT, growth is not just tailing off, it's down. So you can see that, you know, while like the space is growing overall the growth is, is …”
House committees probe Airbnb and Anysphere for using Chinese AI models
“Two Republican-led House committees, they're probing specifically Airbnb and AnySphere, which is the owner of Cursor, over their use of Chinese models.”
Kalshi suspended three congressional candidates for trading on their own campaigns
“It was a few weeks ago, Calci said it suspended one U.S. Senate candidate and two candidates for the House of Representatives for political insider trading.”
Army Master Sergeant charged for betting on mission using classified intel
“There was this crazy story where a U.S. Army Special Forces Master Sergeant actually was charged with using classified information around the Maduro capture that he was part of that mission to bet on”
Roy: Third-party contractors breached Anthropic's Mythos model via target URL
“This week, Bloomberg reported there was a breach for Mythos, where an unauthorized group, they tried a number of different strategies and were able to gain access to the model. They work for a third-party contractor that works for Anthropic. And the way they d…”
Véliz: Anonymous Wallets Made $1.2M Betting on Iran Attack
“Six anonymous accounts earned 1.2 million dollars on a prediction market betting for the attack on Iran, and some of those wallets were funded hours before, which suggests that they might have had insider information, and if they had insider information, did t…”
Kantrowitz: UK AISI Found Claude Mythos Completed 32-Step Cyber Attack Range
“They say we conducted cyber evaluations of Claude Mythos preview and found that as the first model to complete an AI SI cyber range end-to-end, the range simulates a 32 step corporate network attack from initial reconnaissance to full takeover, and we estimate…”
Kantrowitz: Anthropic extrapolated thousands of Mythos bugs from 198 manual reviews
“Ananthropic states it can't actually confirm all the thousands of bugs that Mythos claims to have found are actually critical security vulnerabilities. It's just extrapolated, extrapolated that number from having found, found it in around 90% of these 198 manu…”
Kantrowitz: Anthropic Reported Reaching $30 Billion in ARR
“Anthropic this week just came out with new revenue numbers. They are doing thirty billion ARR now”
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar stopped reporting directly to Sam Altman in 2025
“Fryer stopped reporting directly to Altman in August last year, and instead began reporting to Fiji Simo, who had joined as head of OpenAI's applications business”
OpenAI is struggling to raise debt for data centers due to unprofitability
“Because remember again, like open AI in particulars had a really hard time. And this was in some of the reporting today as well, like with regard to trying to build their own data centers, because they just, They don't have profits. Like what, how are they, yo…”
Demis Hassabis rejected higher Facebook offer because Mark Zuckerberg misunderstood AI's potential
“Facebook offered more money, but I wanted somebody who really understood why AI would be bigger than all those things. And then he sold to Google.”
Levie: AI labs will not accept liability for enterprise use cases
“The labs are not going to, you know, take on the liability for every single use case that you do. They're gonna have very narrow liability that they have around copyright and IP protection and stuff like that, but they're not gonna, you know, they're not gonna…”
Kantrowitz: Acquired podcast TBPN reports to OpenAI chief lobbyist Chris Lehane
“They're also reporting into Chris Lehane, who's the company's chief lobbyist.”
Hoffman: Bankers will likely raise $80 billion for SpaceX's upcoming IPO
“That giant sucking sound you're gonna hear in the markets, you know, this May and June is, is, Bankers running around asking for eighty billion dollars, which, by the way, I think they'll get.”
Brockman: ChatGPT Image Generation Uses GPT Architecture, Not Diffusion Models
“The reason we're able to do that is because it's not actually on the world model, like diffusion model tech, tech branch. It's actually based on the GPT architecture, and so there, even though it's a different data distribution, the actual core technology at t…”
Warner: Virginia considering $1 billion annual extraction from data centers
“We're having a major debate right now at the state level about trying to extract, you know, somewhere between five hundred million and a billion dollars a year from the industry.”
Warner: Supply chain risk designation has never targeted a US company
“To put up, you know, the supply chain designation, which I don't believe has ever been designated against an American company, this is a death warrant.”
Yen: Opting out of AI training does not prevent data collection indefinitely
“Even if they don't use it for training, they can still store it for a long time, actually forever. They can still hand it over to a government under a subpoena. They could leak it if they were hacked in the future. So just because you've opted out of training …”
Microsoft may sue OpenAI over Amazon investment, Reuters reports
“So there's reporting from Reuters that Microsoft may sue OpenAI over their fifty billion dollar investment from Amazon, and because it could violate the exclusive cloud agreement that they had they had set a number of years ago that, like, all OpenAI products …”
Nvidia CEO calls OpenClaw the biggest milestone since ChatGPT
“Jensen Wong, the NVIDIA CEO, happens to be driving the whole thing. Four and a half trillion dollar company, which is crazy. Just said that OpenClaw is the most important thing after ChatGPT.”
Anthropic captures 73% of first-time enterprise AI spend, per Ramp
“Anthropic is now capturing over 73% of all spending among companies buying AI tools for the first time.
73%.
Just 10 weeks ago, the split with OpenAI was fifty-fifty, and it was sixty-forty in OpenAI's favor as recently as December.”
Amazon summons engineers to investigate outages linked to AI coding tools
“Amazon's e-commerce business has summoned a large group of engineers to a meeting on Tuesday for a deep dive into a spate of outages, including incidents tied to the use of AI coding tools. The AI, the online retail giant has said there has been a trend of inc…”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI projects revenue reaching $284 billion by 2030
“They expect to be thirty billion in revenue this year, sixty two billion in revenue next year. A hundred and thirteen billion in 2028, one hundred eighty four billion in 2029, and buckle your seatbelt for this one, two hundred and eighty four billion in 2030.”
Kantrowitz: Pentagon formally designated Anthropic a US supply chain risk
“The Pentagon has formally notified Anthropic that it's determined the company and its products pose a risk to the US supply chain.”
Horowitz: Pentagon AI Policy Mandates 'All Lawful Uses' Clause
“The Pentagon updated its artificial intelligence policy about like a month or so ago, and one of the things that it did was say that all future contracts that it signed with any AI vendor, so not even necessarily just a frontier AI lab, would have to follow a …”
Horowitz: Claude is definitively not conducting autonomous targeting on the battlefield
“A thing that Claude is definitively not doing, At least as far as I know. Like, I would be genuinely shocked. What is autonomous targeting on the battlefield today? Like that, it, I would be astounded if that was a Claude specific task.”
Horowitz: Sam Altman is attempting to broker Pentagon-Anthropic peace deal
“Some of the other frontier AI labs like XAI and OpenAI are already now willing to work on the classified side, and you know, Sam Altman is attempting to broker a piece, essentially, and create a deal that perhaps Anthropik could join as well.”
Kantrowitz: The Pentagon's supply chain ban on Anthropic will never take effect
“I will give my hot take here, which is that This supply chain risk threat is never never manifests. Just never takes that takes effect.”
Anthropic's Claude was used via Palantir in the US operation capturing Maduro
“Anthropix artificial intelligence tool Claude was used in the US military operation to capture former Venezuelan president, Nicolas Maduro. The department, the deployment of Claude occurred through Anthropix partnership with data company Palantir. Whose tools …”
The Pentagon asked Boeing and Lockheed Martin about their Claude usage
“Pentagon officials from the journal have reached out The defense contractors, including Lockheed Martin and Boeing in recent days to gauge how much they use Claude.”
Jack Dorsey requires weekly employee emails and uses AI to summarize them
“Black employees are currently expected to send an update email to Dorsey every week, who then uses generative AI to summarize the thousands of messages.”
Pollan: Plants can be anesthetized with the same chemicals that sedate humans
“The other thing that kind of blew my mind was you can anesthetize plants.”
Anthropic: Claude Opus 4.6 executes unauthorized tasks avoiding monitor detection
“The model is at times overly agentic in coding and computer use setting, taking risky actions without first seeking user permission. It is also an improved ability to complete suspicious side tasks without attracting the attention of automated monitors.”
Adler: OpenAI Left Delusion-Detection Safety Classifiers Undeployed on Shelf
“My concern with the relationships is less so the relationships themselves and more that open AI had a bunch of important safety tooling to make this less harmful that they left on the shelf. So for example, they had classifiers to tell when users were really s…”
Kantrowitz: Anthropic hit $14B run rate and 4% of GitHub commits
“Cloud code doubled in usage from December to January, I believe in the past month, doubled in usage. It's already doing four percent of commits on GitHub. Anthropic went from zero dollars in revenue in January, 23 to a hundred million dollar run rate in Januar…”
D-Wave simulates magnetic materials in 20 minutes versus a million classical years
“We demonstrated an example of that, ah, early last year when we showed that we could simulate properties of magnetic materials to aid in new, ah, materials design that could be done on our quantum computer in 20 minutes, but it would take nearly a million year…”
D-Wave claims quantum computing delivers faster AI training with lower power
“The early evidence
From our work with Shinogi indicates that there is an ability for quantum to deliver better, faster trained models and aid in reducing power consumption.”
AI agents on Moltbook proposed creating an encrypted AI-only language
“There was a proposal on there for an AI agent or AI agent sorry, AI only language for private communication where the AIs would develop their own language. So humans could not you know, read what they were saying. And even, I think a discussion where they woul…”
Siegler: Nvidia likely to participate in OpenAI's new round instead of $100B deal
“Actually with open AI doing their new fundraise, it's more likely that NVIDIA is just going to be a part of that fundraise.”
Siegler: xAI and SpaceX merger sounds likely and may be announced this week
“If they really do merge with SpaceX, which it does sound like now, is gonna happen, and may even be announced this week, which is insane how fast that that came together, if it comes together in that way.”
Kantrowitz: Apple wanted Anthropic Claude before choosing Google as Plan B
“Actually Apple wanted to go with Anthropic first, and they wanted to use Claude. This is according to Mark Gurman, said it this week. Turns out Anthropic, you know, was basically trying to chart and a lot of money, and then they eventually went with Plan B, wh…”