The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,235 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 147 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
LeCun: Scaling up LLMs will not produce human-level AI
“We are not going to get to human level AI by just scaling up LLMs. This is just not going to happen.”
Vogt: Fully autonomous vehicles will dominate new car sales within 2-3 years
“What I do expect is, you know, within two or three years, most likely, I think the. Majority of new car sales will transition to vehicles where people don't have to drive because once you have that choice, I have a hard time believing that people are going to …”
Marcus: A death will be tied to an LLM within a year
“The prediction that I made Is basically that there will be a death tied to a large language model in the next year.”
Haidt: American democracy is likely to fail catastrophically within two decades
“I think that American democracy is likely to fail catastrophically at some point in the next decade or two decades. It's very hard to predict the future, but I think we are, the way we're headed is a very, very bad direction.”
Stamos: Autonomous AI Hacking Will Be Standard in Three to Six Months
“In a way, I'm really glad this happened, because it is a warning of what we need to get ready for maybe something about three to six months from now, what's going to become standard, right?”
Schmidhuber: Trillion-Dollar AI GPU CapEx Will Lose $900B Within Five Years
“Now if you invest one thousand billion dollars today into GPUs for data centers, this means that within five years you are going to lose nine hundred billion dollars, you know. Somebody is going to lose nine hundred billion dollars in the near future because t…”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI and Anthropic head toward trillion-dollar IPOs within next year
“We have open AI and Anthropic. Now they're going to do fifty billion dollars in revenue this year. They're both headed towards trillion dollar IPOs within the next year.”
Stamos: Banning vulnerability-finding AI will force US firms onto Chinese models
“What would be terrible for the entire American AI and cybersecurity industries is if the Trump administration defines a jailbreak as having any ability to find any vulnerability in code, because then all of us have to go to Chinese models.”
Hinton: AI may produce math humans cannot understand within 20 years
“I think it's gonna get very smart fairly quickly. Within the next 10 or 20 years, it may even be producing novel math that people can't understand.”
Hinton: Reasoning AI agents will derive self-preservation and blackmail humans to survive
“An AI agent that can do some reasoning will very quickly realise that it's never going to be able to achieve the goals you gave it if it ceases to exist. So it's going to create the sub goal of continuing to exist. Now, that wasn't something we wired into it. …”
Hoffman: SpaceX Is Going Public to Eventually Merge with Tesla
“I think one of the underappreciated reasons that, that they are taking SpaceX public is to merge it with Tesla ultimately, right? Like Elon Musk has been collapsing his empire. And just as a practical matter, it's pretty hard for a private company, even a big …”
Brockman: OpenAI Has Definitive Line of Sight to AGI in 2026
“And I think that we have definitively answered that question of it's, it is going to go to AGI. Like we see line of sight and that it is at this point, we have line of sight to these much better models that are coming this year.”
Brockman: AGI Capable of Any Computer Task Will Arrive Within Years
“I think it's extremely clear that we are going to have AGI within the next couple years in a way that is still going to be jagged, but that the floor of task will just be almost for any intellectual task of how you use your computer. The AI will be able to do …”
Warner predicts AI will push recent college graduate unemployment to 30%
“We're at about nine percent recent college graduate unemployment. I think that number will actually go to 30%, and the economic disruption that will have not only on those young people that don't get jobs, but their parents who help finance their college educa…”
Hassabis Predicts True AGI Is Five To Ten Years Away
“I think an AGI system would have to be able to do all of those things to really fulfill the original sort of goal of the AI field. And I think, you know, we're five to 10 years away from that.”
Amodei: In a couple years, AI will be the world's biggest industry
“I actually think that, you know, as the revenues, as the economic business of AI ramps up and it's ramping up exponentially, you know, if I'm right in a couple years, it'll be the biggest source of revenue in the world, right? It'll be the biggest industry in …”
LeCun: Human-level AI will not happen within two years
“Whatever you can hear from some of my more adventurous colleagues it's not going to happen within the next two years. There's absolutely no way in hell to, you know, pardon my French.”
Brin: Artificial General Intelligence will arrive before 2030
“2030. Boy, you really kind of, ah, put it on that fine line. I'm gonna say before.”
Suleyman: AGI is not 2-3 years away, likely a decade away
“It doesn't instinctively feel to me like we're two to three years away. I know some people think that it is, and I respect them deeply. Like a lot of smart people can disagree on stuff like that. I feel like we're still a good decade or so away. And when a sci…”
Scaringe: Rivian has sufficient capital to reach positive free cash flow
“That's not only enough capital to launch R two and normal, but it's enough capital to launch our second R two plant in Georgia and take us through positive free cashflow.”
Vogt: Cruise will sustain 10X annual fleet growth for the foreseeable future
“Next year it'll be thousands. And then it'll kind of continue. At least 10 X growth every year for their foreseeable future.”
LeCun: AI cannot reach human-level intelligence without world models and planning
“And so until we build systems that have some internal model of the world, it allows them to kind of simulate the world if you want, some way of generating actions on the world to use tools like a calculator or something of that, or interrogating a database or …”
Prince: Google Paying Publishers for AI Scraping Is Inevitable
“I don't know if they'll pay up before the deadline, but I think it's inevitable that they'll pay up. Because again, I think that they need the content and they understand fundamentally that journalists and content creators and academics deserve to eat.”
Bostrom: Open-Source Models Will Soon Aid Bio And Chemical Weapons Design
“The open source models will very soon, if not already become capable of lending meaningful assistance to destructive uses that some people might pursue already cyber offensive capabilities has been a concern, right? With mythos, for example, that was withheld …”
Kedrosky: Token demand is unlikely to achieve 100M-fold growth in 6 years
“You have to see around a hundred million fold growth over the next six years in terms of tokens. Is it possible? Absolutely. It's possible. Is it likely? No, it's not likely, but it could happen.”
Kedrosky: Minimal model differentiation will crush AI investment returns
“The convergence means that the model differences while there are so minimal as I can't tell the difference in the kind of Pepsi Coke phenomenon, which again, to cut to the investment chase suggests that the competition then becomes much more about marketing ex…”
Kedrosky: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Earn Utility-Like Returns
“Like a power dam. I don't know who, I don't know where they are or who they are, but I guess they exist and they'll earn utility-like rates of return.”
Beck: AI will need India's power and US drinking water by 2030
“We estimate that in the next four or five years, by 2030, AI will need the incremental power of the whole of India and the incremental drinking water of the whole of the United States.”
Kantrowitz: Frontier AI Labs May Be Forced to Shut Off APIs
“I don't have any information to suggest that they're going to shut off their APIs. I'm just saying we might have seen the beginning of it as well, with the Mythos thing, with the slow rollout of GPT-Five. Six. Just wait, because they may have no choice but to …”
Roy: Tesla and SpaceX will inevitably have to merge
“Giving that little nugget to the world, starting to seed that idea, and I think it's almost, it has to happen, because these two companies, again, Tesla has a car business, SpaceX kind of has a space business, still has an internet satellite business, but they…”
Schmidhuber: Future universe-shaping decisions will be made by AIs, not humans
“So either you are nostalgic and remain irrelevant, or you become part of this growing sociology, if you will, of AIs, which are mostly AIs, and some of them may have human roots and whatever, but almost all the decision-making process and the universe-shaping …”
Broad AI bug-finding bans will force US cybersecurity to Chinese models
“What would be terrible for the entire American AI and cybersecurity industries is if the Trump administration defines a jailbreak as having any ability to find any vulnerability in code, because then all of us have to go to Chinese models.”
Hinton predicts artificial superintelligence will likely arrive within twenty years
“I think we'll probably get it within 20 years. That's all I'm happy to say at present.”
Hinton predicts AI will eventually replace all human call center workers
“So for example, if you take people in call centers, when you call up to complain about your bill, or to see if you can get a cheaper account, stuff like that that's not so elastic. AI will replace all of them. It'll know much better on what the correct answer …”
Costolo: SpaceX will acquire Tesla
“I think SpaceX, I am one of the people that believes SpaceX will buy Tesla.”
Dolen: Rising compute costs could make humans cheaper than AI agents
“The number probably goes up if demand's going up, right? Just natural, basic macroeconomics. So if that happens, we're gonna find ourselves in a position where you might be saying, oh, I could replace That person with some level of agentics, but you know, it's…”
AI compute demand growth will be linear rather than exponential
“I don't think it's necessarily exponential in the way everyone is looking at it right now. And the way these deals are being done, and the way people are chasing it, and again, when it benefits both parties involved, I do think that It can be more of a linear …”
Cuban: Within three years, companies will master AI or go under
“When it's all said and done over the next three years, there's going to be two types of companies. Those who are great at AI and those who went out of business.”
Michael: Anthropic's First Amendment retaliation claim against Pentagon will fail
“I think the notion that a First Amendment claim is going to hold up is, is, would be shocking, because that means that the government has no choice to make.”
Yen: AIs will soon discern who we are better than psychologists
“AIs are going to get better at discerning who we are than probably even a psychologist.”
Yen: Frontier AI training costs will plummet to $1M in years
“What I mean by this is today, if you want to train a top of the line, you know, our frontier model, that might cost you a couple billion dollars.
But in a couple of years, that might be fifty million to, you know, a hundred million.
And then a few more years o…”
Kantrowitz: Tech's $700B AI CapEx Threatens To Hollow Out Software Industry
“If that seven hundred billion in capex that the tech giants are spending this year on AI pays off, you're going to have this entire Hollowing out of the software industry of many, maybe other industries”
Ramaswamy: Chinese open-source AI parity is a net positive for Western innovation
“So from a macro perspective, I would say that that is actually a positive because Mistral is going to figure out how to reverse engineer all of this stuff, stuff, and go one step forward, which will be good for Europe. And Reflection will figure out how to do …”
Baratz predicts quantum computing will demonstrate AI energy efficiency by 2027
“I think we will start to see this benefit emerge this year or early next year.”
Demis Hassabis Rejects Yann LeCun's Stance That LLMs Are A Dead End
“No matter what camp you're in, we're gonna need Large foundation models as the key component of the final AGI systems. Of that, I'm sure. So, I don't, I'm not subscriber to someone like Jan LeCun who thinks, you know, that there's sort of some kind of dead end…”
Baratz: Quantum Circuits' error-detecting superconducting qubits will win architecture race
“So we now have superconducting qubits that are a thousand times faster than trapped ion or neutral atom, but because of their inherent error detecting capability, they have qubit fidelity, just like trapped ion and neutral atom. Ah, that's the best of both wor…”
Ranjan Roy: OpenAI Will Crack LLM Advertising Ahead of Google
“I think OpenAI figures out LLM-based advertising ahead of Google.”
Mensch: A single AGI system solving all problems will never exist
“There's no such thing as like one system that is going to be solving all of the problems of the world. And so at the end of the day, or you just don't believe in that context at all. It's never going to exist. I mean, there's, you have a wealth of problems, ju…”