Apple

includes Apple Vision Pro, Apple Watch, Apple TV, Apple Pay, Apple Card, Apple Mail, Apple II, Apple Music, Apple Fitness+, Apple A Series, Apple Intelligence, Apple Pencil and 14 more

130 statements across 40 episodes · 34 bullish · 29 bearish · 2 people on the record · first statement Oct 11, 2020 by Benedict Evans · said 1,240 times in 80 episodes since 2020 · across every show →

Mentions by year, the whole family

brought up most by Benedict Evans (1071), Toni Cowan-Brown (143), Jeremy White (16), Jay Goldberg (8), Toni Campbell (2)

tap a year for its mentions
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013252020202120222023202420252026episodes it came up in
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2026 21 mentions in 4 episodes 5 per episode
2025 73 mentions in 3 episodes 24 per episode
2024 166 mentions in 8 episodes 21 per episode
2023 173 mentions in 14 episodes 12 per episode
2022 285 mentions in 24 episodes 12 per episode
2021 369 mentions in 19 episodes 19 per episode
2020 153 mentions in 8 episodes 19 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about Apple, oldest first

Oct 11, 2020 neutral
Insight
Evans: Lacking a US privacy regulator, Apple and Google write the rules
“The US doesn't have a privacy regulator. And so Facebook, Apple on one level, you know, Apple and Google are remaking the ad tech industries. And so they're doing privacy regulation. Apple is doing privacy regulation and what you can do on the phone. Facebook …”
Benedict Evans Oct 11, 2020 ▶ 14:07 Is Europe a market?
Oct 19, 2020 bullish
Opinion
Apple's custom silicon is likely 25% better than rival chips
“Apple now makes the, what's called the SAC, so the system on a chip, basically the CPU inside an iPhone and an iPad. While they design it themselves, it's manufactured for them by TSMC. That's probably 25% better than any other chip on the market.”
Benedict Evans Oct 19, 2020 ▶ 19:13 What the Apple and Facebook events tell us about their product cycles
Oct 19, 2020 positive
Insight
Apple uses iPhone AR features as building blocks for future smart glasses
“But you, but for glasses, clearly what they're doing is they're building that building block in the glass, in the phone, so that it's ready when they have the glasses.”
Benedict Evans Oct 19, 2020 ▶ 29:56 What the Apple and Facebook events tell us about their product cycles
Oct 19, 2020 positive
Assertion Supported
No company besides Apple has sold 250 million $600 machined steel devices
“Nobody has ever sold two hundred and fifty million things at 600 dollars each, machined out of stainless steel before.”
Benedict Evans Oct 19, 2020 ▶ 26:51 What the Apple and Facebook events tell us about their product cycles
Oct 19, 2020 positive
Insight
Apple avoids public experimentation and only ships finished products
“What Apple does is they don't experiment in public. They have this theory of the product, and we think this product is now something that we think you will, there's a real theory as to why you would buy this and what it's useful for. And it all works, and ever…”
Benedict Evans Oct 19, 2020 ▶ 5:28 What the Apple and Facebook events tell us about their product cycles
Oct 19, 2020 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Apple has likely kept VR headset prototypes in labs for years
“And you know, you can be completely certain that Apple has a VR headset in the lab. They've had a VR headset in the lab for five years, maybe 10 years, and they make it, because of course they do.”
Benedict Evans Oct 19, 2020 ▶ 29:16 What the Apple and Facebook events tell us about their product cycles
Oct 19, 2020 neutral
Assertion Supported
Two modern iPads contain more transistors than every 1984 Mac combined
“The SAC and the new iPad has I think 11.8 billion transistors. Which, what does that mean? Well, you're going to do the math. The original Mac in 1984 had 68 K, 68,000 transistors, and they sold 370,000 in the first year. So you can work that out, and it turns…”
Benedict Evans Oct 19, 2020 ▶ 19:44 What the Apple and Facebook events tell us about their product cycles
Nov 2, 2020 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: Apple captures over 75% of global smartphone industry profit
“Apple sells from memory sort of 10 or 15% of all the mobile phones on Earth. They sell, however, they have probably over 50% of the revenue and probably three quarters or more of the profit. They have 25% of the install base.”
Benedict Evans Nov 2, 2020 ▶ 17:53 How do you destroy a tech monopoly?
Nov 16, 2020 negative
Insight
Evans: 1980s Apple Suffered From Trying to Build Everything In-House
“The other piece of this is that Apple in the eighties was very bad at leveraging the broader electronics industry and the broader supply chain. They did far too much themselves. They tried to make the thing themselves. They had too much proprietary technology …”
Benedict Evans Nov 16, 2020 ▶ 14:33 The paradox of Apple
Nov 16, 2020 negative
Insight
Evans: 1980s Apple failed because CIOs controlled PC purchasing
“And the buyer for PCs in 1984 was a CIO who wanted 5000 of them at a price to go under people's desks, probably actually to collect to a mainframe or to run a single line of business application, and they didn't care where the power switch was, and how easy it…”
Benedict Evans Nov 16, 2020 ▶ 14:07 The paradox of Apple
Nov 16, 2020 positive
Assertion Supported
Evans: One billion people currently own an iPhone
“And the result is that today a billion people have an iPhone.”
Benedict Evans Nov 16, 2020 ▶ 5:40 The paradox of Apple
Nov 16, 2020 positive
Insight
Evans: Apple's disruption strategy relies on aggressive technical abstraction
“Apple's approach to this, which is again, deeply disruptive, is to say, no, that's not how it should work. How it should work is, A normal person should be able to use it without having to know those things. And those things will be abstracted away, and you wi…”
Benedict Evans Nov 16, 2020 ▶ 12:10 The paradox of Apple
Nov 16, 2020 bullish
Opinion
Evans: There is no reason to buy any laptop but MacBook Air
“There's no reason not to buy any laptop other than the MacBook Air at this stage, and God only knows what performance we'll get in the full-size iMac and Mac Pro when they launch those over the next 18 months, because they won't have to worry about battery lif…”
Benedict Evans Nov 16, 2020 ▶ 3:20 The paradox of Apple
Nov 16, 2020 neutral
What-if
Evans: 1985 Steve Jobs Would Have Wanted to Manufacture Chips In-House
“Steve Jobs, 1985, Steve Jobs would have wanted to manufacture the semiconductors himself.”
Benedict Evans Nov 16, 2020 ▶ 15:49 The paradox of Apple
Nov 16, 2020 positive
Insight
Evans: Apple only goes asset-heavy in retail and custom silicon
“And so they've always been very, they've always been actually been very asset light in almost all of this stuff. It's only, it's A, retail, and B, chips. Those are the places that they push deep into assets. Because that was where you could deliver something f…”
Benedict Evans Nov 16, 2020 ▶ 18:36 The paradox of Apple
Nov 16, 2020 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: Approximately 100 million people own an Apple Watch
“People look and say, well, they haven't really announced anything new since the watch, and the watch wasn't a big deal, except a hundred million people have the watch.”
Benedict Evans Nov 16, 2020 ▶ 4:39 The paradox of Apple
Nov 16, 2020 positive
Assertion Supported
Evans: Apple has sold half a billion iPads
“So there is the iPhone and then they have the iPad, which leverages it, and they've sold half a billion of those.”
Benedict Evans Nov 16, 2020 ▶ 4:58 The paradox of Apple
Nov 16, 2020 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Evans: Apple spent roughly $100 million building its campus theater
“They must have spent a hundred million dollars on that theatre just for that event.”
Benedict Evans Nov 16, 2020 ▶ 1:13 The paradox of Apple
Feb 14, 2021 neutral
Insight
Evans: Podcasts have no native distribution network for discovery
“A podcast, publishing a podcast of itself, there's no network. You will only get an audience if you have it from someone else on Twitter, on the web, or something. Or if Apple or Spotify choose to put you on the front page and choose everyone and pay everyone,…”
Benedict Evans Feb 14, 2021 ▶ 19:59 Clubhouse and the endless cycle of social apps
Mar 7, 2021 neutral
Assertion Supported
Evans: Spotify's fixed record label payouts leave no margin for Apple's fee
“This has become particularly an issue for Spotify because Spotify has this structure of their agreements with the record labels. So they're giving the record labels a fixed percentage of the consumer spend. So they can't give Apple 30% because they don't have …”
Benedict Evans Mar 7, 2021 ▶ 5:13 App stores: arguing like it's 2009
Mar 7, 2021 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Evans: Game streaming is the first major consumer product Apple has blocked
“Now we have this very specific set of things around streaming games, but now you actually have like a, for the first time, like a real big tangible product that people would like to buy that Apple's blocking”
Benedict Evans Mar 7, 2021 ▶ 28:53 App stores: arguing like it's 2009
Mar 7, 2021 positive
Opinion
Evans: Eliminating mobile app sandboxing and curated stores would be a catastrophe
“I actually have absolutely no interest in debating the idea that a sandbox and an app store in principle is a good idea and that getting rid of it would be a catastrophe.”
Benedict Evans Mar 7, 2021 ▶ 10:46 App stores: arguing like it's 2009
Mar 7, 2021 neutral
Assertion Supported
Evans: Apple rules force Google Chrome on iOS to use WebKit engine
“Chrome on iOS has to use Apple's rendering engine. It can't use their own rendering engine.”
Benedict Evans Mar 7, 2021 ▶ 6:32 App stores: arguing like it's 2009
Mar 7, 2021 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Evans: Apple's market share legally constrains its freedom to impose platform rules
“On any of these sorts of legal tests, Apple has sufficiently large market share that they are no longer completely free to do whatever they want. And you can think that that shouldn't be the case, but that is the case. You know, that's, that is where the law i…”
Benedict Evans Mar 7, 2021 ▶ 14:30 App stores: arguing like it's 2009
Mar 7, 2021 neutral
Assertion Supported
Evans: Apple's 15% fee tier covers 90% of developers, 10% of revenue
“A couple of months ago, they said, okay, if you're doing less than I think a million dollars a year, then it's only 15%. And of course that's a tiny portion of their revenue, but that's like 90% of the developers and 10% of their revenue.”
Benedict Evans Mar 7, 2021 ▶ 2:07 App stores: arguing like it's 2009
Mar 7, 2021 neutral
Prediction Held up
Evans predicts antitrust concerns will force Apple to open iOS NFC access
“Well, I think it's pretty likely that Apple will have to open up NFC access, for example. Because that's a payment monopoly thing.”
Benedict Evans Mar 7, 2021 ▶ 21:03 App stores: arguing like it's 2009
Mar 14, 2021 bearish
Assertion Supported
Evans: Apple's SKAdNetwork limits conversion attribution data compared to IDFA
“They're going to turn it off and replace it with something called SK Ad Network, which will really just tell you there was an install, but not tell you what or how much it resulted in, which is like massively less useful.”
Benedict Evans Mar 14, 2021 ▶ 12:22 Trying to understand Ad Tech
Mar 14, 2021 neutral
Opinion
Evans: Distinguishing on-device from server ad profiling is purely theological
“What exactly is the difference between Google knowing you're a woman with young children, and having that on a data center in Oregon, and Apple knowing, and your iPhone knowing that you're a woman with young children, and showing you an ad targeted at women wi…”
Benedict Evans Mar 14, 2021 ▶ 30:37 Trying to understand Ad Tech
Mar 14, 2021 neutral
Assertion Supported
Evans: Apple blocks and Google will soon eliminate third-party browser cookies
“Apple has been blocking third-party cookies entirely in Safari by default, and now Google has said from next year they're going to do that as well.”
Benedict Evans Mar 14, 2021 ▶ 10:06 Trying to understand Ad Tech
Jun 14, 2021 positive
Insight
Evans: Privacy branding is vital for Apple's future glasses and cars
“Having privacy, being the privacy company is a huge strategic asset for a large class of the kind of car products that they want to build, because those are products where privacy is actually much more material than it is even on the iPhone.”
Benedict Evans Jun 14, 2021 ▶ 15:44 Paying attention to Apple again
Jun 14, 2021 positive
Insight
Evans: Major Apple announcements synthesize minor features introduced across prior years
“Because generally when Apple announces something big, it combines four or five or six things that they'd announced over the previous couple of years that didn't look very important.”
Benedict Evans Jun 14, 2021 ▶ 39:02 Paying attention to Apple again
Jun 14, 2021 positive
Insight
Evans: Apple refuses to ship 'science projects' without immediate consumer utility
“And part of this is a sort of Apple philosophy is they don't ship science projects. They don't ship something and say, well, we don't really know what this is useful for, and maybe people will like it, and it doesn't quite, it's not quite finished yet, but her…”
Benedict Evans Jun 14, 2021 ▶ 39:42 Paying attention to Apple again
Jun 14, 2021 negative
Insight
Evans: Eliminating ad targeting concentrates revenue into large platforms and paywalls
“So the aggregate of all of this is basically the strong get stronger, the big get bigger. The advertising moves to the big, strong, established sites. Small sites, new interim sites, less targeted sites makes less money. Content moves behind paywalls.”
Benedict Evans Jun 14, 2021 ▶ 36:03 Paying attention to Apple again
Jun 14, 2021 negative
Opinion
Evans: Apple has always been a really bad partner
“The other kind of long-term characteristic of Apple is that Apple has always been a really bad partner.”
Benedict Evans Jun 14, 2021 ▶ 21:27 Paying attention to Apple again
Jun 14, 2021 neutral
Insight
Evans: Apple views user privacy violations as analogous to malware
“I think Apple sees privacy as sort of analogous to malware. It thinks that this is an architectural problem on the computer. It controls the computer. They make the operating system. It's their job to fix it in the same way that it was sort of Microsoft's job …”
Benedict Evans Jun 14, 2021 ▶ 13:14 Paying attention to Apple again
Jun 14, 2021 bullish
Opinion
Evans: Apple AR additions are building blocks for future AR glasses
“Apple keeps adding more stuff to AR. Which is useful on a small scale for some particular applications like Snapchat and Ikea. But very, very obviously a building block for AR glasses.”
Benedict Evans Jun 14, 2021 ▶ 6:17 Paying attention to Apple again
Jun 14, 2021 neutral
Opinion
Evans: Apple's WWDC keynote has become primarily a consumer marketing event
“Now there's a two-hour keynote Which is online, and which is actually just a marketing event with a few small things in it that are relevant to developers, and the developer event, the actual developer stuff happens later.”
Benedict Evans Jun 14, 2021 ▶ 1:51 Paying attention to Apple again
Jun 14, 2021 neutral
Insight
Evans: Privacy is a strategic asset because Apple lacks an ad business
“Privacy is a strategic asset. You know, there's an old line in Silicon Valley that everyone is giving somebody else's business model away for free. Apple doesn't have, it doesn't have a social network, doesn't have a search engine, doesn't really have a, it do…”
Benedict Evans Jun 14, 2021 ▶ 14:00 Paying attention to Apple again
Jun 29, 2021 neutral
Opinion
Evans: Beyond superficial UI cues, Xiaomi does not copy Apple
“And you think, well, yes, up to a point, the calendar app looks the same as the Apple calendar app, but Xiaomi does not look like Apple at all. And as soon as you push under the surface, it's like you can find reasons to support that, that, that presumption. B…”
Benedict Evans Jun 29, 2021 ▶ 17:00 Tech in china, from inside and outside
Jul 5, 2021
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: Apple App Store fees nearly match the entire recorded music industry
“Recorded music is a 17, eighteen billion dollar industry. Apple did fifteen billion dollars in in-app payment commission last year.”
Benedict Evans Jul 5, 2021 ▶ 39:09 'Digital transformation' - beyond the silly slogan
Aug 15, 2021 bearish
Opinion
Evans: Tesla Risks Becoming a Subscale Legacy Automaker Like Saab
“You know, there is basically the bull argument on Tesla is it's a software company and the bear argument on, on Tesla is it's a car company. If it's a car company. Then it's basically a subscale car company and it's going to end up like sub. Great cars, but su…”
Benedict Evans Aug 15, 2021 ▶ 39:37 Telcos and Tesla
Aug 26, 2021 bearish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Evans: All of Apple's App Store rules will be overturned within 18 months
“Now none of this will stand because all of Apple's rules are going to get overturned in the next 18 months”
Benedict Evans Aug 26, 2021 ▶ 8:13 Games and Roblox
Aug 26, 2021
Assertion Supported
Evans: 0.5% of App Store Accounts Generated 54% of Billings in 2016
“Not .5% of accounts spent over 450 dollars in the quarter. Not sure if this is quarter or month, I have to go and check. Same point, really. And those users were 54% of total App Store billings.”
Benedict Evans Aug 26, 2021 ▶ 30:36 Games and Roblox
Sep 20, 2021 neutral
Opinion
Evans: Apple launch events are the Met Gala of Silicon Valley
“It was, it's basically the Met the Met Gala of Silicon Valley.”
Benedict Evans Sep 20, 2021 ▶ 1:13 Apple's metronome
Sep 20, 2021 positive
Opinion
Evans: Apple remains detached from short-term tech hype and panics
“It strikes me that Apple is like the two trillion dollar elephant in the corner of tech, because there are all these enthusiasms and arguments and panics and things that go on, whether it's, you know, content, whether it's, you know, content moderation, or adv…”
Benedict Evans Sep 20, 2021 ▶ 1:29 Apple's metronome
Sep 20, 2021 positive
Insight
Evans: Apple ships discrete modular building blocks before combining them into new products
“Part of Apple's roadmap is they create these building blocks, and they ship them as features year over the years, and then they combine them into something new. The obvious example is they added the fingerprint scanner the year before they did Apple Pay.”
Benedict Evans Sep 20, 2021 ▶ 24:38 Apple's metronome
Sep 20, 2021 negative
Opinion
Evans: Apple's newly announced iPhones are notably uninteresting
“So we thought it would be kind of interesting to wrap up the new iPhones and so on, very, very briefly, because it's actually interesting how uninteresting they are.”
Benedict Evans Sep 20, 2021 ▶ 0:19 Apple's metronome
Sep 20, 2021 negative
Opinion
Evans: Sideloading apps with file access would be a catastrophe for users
“I would die on the hill that you should not be able to install a random app From the web that can access your file system. That would be a catastrophe for a billion users.”
Benedict Evans Sep 20, 2021 ▶ 10:45 Apple's metronome
Sep 20, 2021 neutral
Insight
Evans: Apple leapfrogs tech competitors annually before they catch up
“Apple leapfrogs the rest of the industry, and then in the next nine months, the rest of the industry will leapfrog Apple, and then in 12 months, Apple will leapfrog, shake another jump forward, and they've got to lock on the hand of the industry, and that's it…”
Benedict Evans Sep 20, 2021 ▶ 7:46 Apple's metronome
Sep 20, 2021 positive
Opinion
Evans: Apple faces no conceptual barriers to building a better Tesla
“That's just money and time and engineering, but there's no conceptual reason why they couldn't make a better Tesla.”
Benedict Evans Sep 20, 2021 ▶ 29:38 Apple's metronome
Sep 20, 2021 positive
Insight
Evans: Apple modularized product rollouts to prevent shipping delays
“What they've sort of done is modularized, modularized the way that they roll out the hardware and the software in such a way that they can get that Predictable, repeatable thing happening every year without delaying.”
Benedict Evans Sep 20, 2021 ▶ 5:58 Apple's metronome
Sep 20, 2021 neutral
Assertion Supported
Evans: 0.5% of iPhone users generate half of App Store spending
“Second observation is we know from the disclosures in the Epic trial that about 80% so Apple did fifteen billion dollars. Apple gives a number. They did fifteen billion dollars in App Store commission. 65, sixty-five billion dollars, I think, of total money sp…”
Benedict Evans Sep 20, 2021 ▶ 17:08 Apple's metronome
Sep 20, 2021 negative
Opinion
Evans: Epic Games' legal fight against Apple was driven by pure greed
“Epic wanted, A, not to pay the 30%, even though Epic has no marginal cost and was making loads of money, so that was pure greed on their part, and B, they wanted to run their own store so they could sell all sorts of different things, and so they could have al…”
Benedict Evans Sep 20, 2021 ▶ 12:11 Apple's metronome
Sep 20, 2021 bearish
Prediction Held up
Evans: The 30% App Store commission rule is toast
“Look, the 30% rule is toast, but we don't really know quite how and what and where”
Benedict Evans Sep 20, 2021 ▶ 21:24 Apple's metronome
Sep 20, 2021
Prediction Held up
Evans: EU antitrust regulators will target Apple's APIs and App Store control
“This EU are going to come back and they're not going to start with payment. They're going to start with the store and the APIs and everything else.”
Benedict Evans Sep 20, 2021 ▶ 15:29 Apple's metronome
Sep 20, 2021 negative
Opinion
Evans: Apple Fitness+ caters to Cupertino insiders instead of fitness beginners
“So you're actually not designing it For the people that you think you're designing it for. You're designing it for your friends in Cupertino who like that music and go to the gym all the time.”
Benedict Evans Sep 20, 2021 ▶ 9:12 Apple's metronome
Nov 2, 2021 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Evans: Apple will pitch AR glasses for immediate use, not 10-year concepts
“And you just know if, and when they launch AR glasses, There will not be a concept video of what it might be in 10 years. There will be some really, really clearly defined reasons why you should buy it now.”
Benedict Evans Nov 2, 2021 ▶ 19:51 The Meta reality
Nov 2, 2021 negative
Assertion Supported
Evans: Apple's iOS privacy changes shifted ad revenue and hit Snap stock
“And we saw this really clearly, really clear for the first time this summer when Apple makes all these privacy changes in iOS and great chunks of revenue start shifting off other companies, A, either to Off the platform altogether or be actually onto Apple and…”
Benedict Evans Nov 2, 2021 ▶ 5:32 The Meta reality
Nov 2, 2021 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Evans: Apple kept a VR headset in its lab for five years
“Meanwhile, Apple has had a VR headset in the lab for five years and looks at it every year and say, nah, we don't think this is good enough yet.”
Benedict Evans Nov 2, 2021 ▶ 31:09 The Meta reality
Nov 8, 2021 neutral
Opinion
Evans: Book publishing holds zero strategic value for Big Tech
“Books is a much bigger industry, but it has no strategic value to Google or Apple or Facebook.”
Benedict Evans Nov 8, 2021 ▶ 31:59 How to think about tech
Nov 8, 2021 bearish
Prediction Held up
Evans: An Apple AR headset will take years to reach scale
“If Apple launches an AR headset at WWDC next summer, like that will not have hundreds of millions of users next year, the year after. Like it did take, it does take three to five years to go from the first thing.”
Benedict Evans Nov 8, 2021 ▶ 9:54 How to think about tech
Nov 8, 2021 neutral
Insight
Evans: The entire global recorded music industry is a tech rounding error
“The entire global recorded music industry is what, 16, seventeen billion dollars. Global online advertising is three hundred billion dollars. You know, Apple has, what, a hundred and fifty billion dollars of cash? Like, music is just a rounding error for the t…”
Benedict Evans Nov 8, 2021 ▶ 31:38 How to think about tech
Nov 15, 2021 positive
Assertion Supported
Evans: More people download software on iPhone now than all pre-2005 platforms combined
“There are more people downloading software on an iPhone now than happened on every computing platform on earth before 2005.”
Benedict Evans Nov 15, 2021 ▶ 14:46 What we know about web 3 so far
Feb 21, 2022
Insight
Evans: Flagship retail stores are self-funded marketing, not logistical sales endpoints
“The stores are sort of a self-funded marketing operation. ... They broke even in their own right, but they're not just that, that's not actually what they're there for. They're not the end point to a logistic system.”
Benedict Evans Feb 21, 2022 ▶ 10:56 The retail reset
Feb 21, 2022 neutral
Assertion Supported
Evans: Apple retail stores historically accounted for only 10-15% of revenue
“They don't disclose it now, but until sort of five years ago or so something, they broke out the financials for the stores and it was only sort of 10 or 15% of revenue.”
Benedict Evans Feb 21, 2022 ▶ 10:12 The retail reset
Mar 7, 2022 neutral
Assertion Supported
Evans: Apple relies on China for 25% of revenue and most manufacturing
“Apple, Apple, interestingly, is on the other side of this, in that Apple, of course, has 20, 25% of its revenue in China. And of course, the vast majority of its manufacturing is in China.”
Benedict Evans Mar 7, 2022 ▶ 14:18 Ukraine
Apr 11, 2022 neutral
Insight
Evans: Apple offers credit cards for ecosystem reasons, not disrupting banking
“Apple is now, you know, has a credit card and the sort of talk that it's building a bunch of sort of financial infrastructure. It's not doing that because it wants to overturn the existing market structure of banking. It's doing that for Apple reasons.”
Benedict Evans Apr 11, 2022 ▶ 2:28 Are you a seal?
Apr 11, 2022
Insight
Evans: Big tech will not build narrow vertical SaaS because of scale limits
“When you're a company the size of Google or Apple or something there are things that are probably a perfectly good business, but they're just way too small as a proportion of that company for it to be worth, worth you donate it devoting the kind of effort that…”
Benedict Evans Apr 11, 2022 ▶ 28:25 Are you a seal?
Apr 11, 2022 negative
Opinion
Evans: Music is not a top five strategic priority for Big Tech
“Nobody at Apple is sitting there thinking about music anymore. I mean, well, very few people at Apple, they have a music business, but it's not like the top five strategic priorities at Apple nor Google, nor Facebook.”
Benedict Evans Apr 11, 2022 ▶ 4:41 Are you a seal?
Apr 25, 2022 negative
Assertion Supported
Apple's privacy fetish means its Apple TV team lacks viewer data
“There's a story in the information this week, that Apple isn't collecting that, so that Apple's programming team have no idea what people are watching, because of the sort of fetish that Apple have for privacy, particularly Eddie Q, who apparently wouldn't let…”
Benedict Evans Apr 25, 2022 ▶ 18:37 Netflix isn't a tech company
May 30, 2022 neutral
Opinion
Evans: Allowing Alternative App Store Payments Wouldn't Break iPhone
“If Apple let every app sign up alternative payment methods inside of their app on the iPhone. It would be annoying, and, you know, there would be some trade-offs around security and privacy, and you can also argue whether anyone would actually do it, which is …”
Benedict Evans May 30, 2022 ▶ 3:37 Three ways to say no
May 30, 2022 negative
Opinion
Evans: Mandating USB-C for iPhone Is Dumb and Doesn't Help Environment
“If they have to replace the lightning port and the iPhone with USB-C. It's dumb. It doesn't actually help the environment. It's annoying. It's probably a less good port than the lightning port Apple uses. It's certainly a bit bigger. But like, guess what? Like…”
Benedict Evans May 30, 2022 ▶ 6:43 Three ways to say no
Jun 6, 2022 neutral
Insight
Evans: Apple's Privacy Positioning Is Driven by Its Product Roadmap
“Yes, I think they believe it, but they're also positioning themselves as a privacy company because they're selling car products where privacy is a big deal. The watch, the credit card, and of course, if you're wearing a pair of glasses that's got a pair, a clu…”
Benedict Evans Jun 6, 2022 ▶ 30:42 What's next for advertising?
Jun 6, 2022 neutral
Insight
Evans: Apple CSAM backlash shows lack of coherent societal privacy consensus
“Is this is the privacy company that thinks they've gone through all this elaborate, complicated work to do it in a way that's private, and they get this huge backlash, which says to me, like, we don't have a coherent sense of what we mean by privacy, and so we…”
Benedict Evans Jun 6, 2022 ▶ 9:25 What's next for advertising?
Jul 25, 2022 neutral
Insight
Evans: Apple's media services exist primarily to prevent Android churn
“It's a feel, feel good. And B, it makes it harder for you to churn away from Apple and move to Android. And so it's not the core skill, which is, would be like designing chips, but it's sort of adjacent to supporting the business.”
Benedict Evans Jul 25, 2022 ▶ 7:20 When the point of leverage changes
Jul 25, 2022
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: Apple's 2021 R&D budget equaled its total revenue at iPhone launch
“When Apple launched the iPhone, I think the revenue was about twenty billion dollars. And last year, Apple's R&D budget was twenty billion dollars. It was a four hundred billion dollar company last year”
Benedict Evans Jul 25, 2022 ▶ 2:07 When the point of leverage changes
Jul 25, 2022 neutral
Prediction Held up
Evans: EU will force Apple to open NFC to third-party payment apps
“Certainly they will have to open up NFC, they will have to open up Apple Pay, so you'll have to be able to basically substitute Apple Pay with Stripe Pay or Square Pay. The EU, that's very clear in the DMA that's just kind of, that's going through its final pr…”
Benedict Evans Jul 25, 2022 ▶ 31:09 When the point of leverage changes
Jul 25, 2022 positive
Opinion
Evans: It is no longer absurd for Apple to enter consumer banking
“It's no longer absurd to think that they might do, think about doing, of course they've thought about doing that, it's no longer absurd to think the, because it's a job, the idea is no longer absurd to think the answer might be yes.”
Benedict Evans Jul 25, 2022 ▶ 11:00 When the point of leverage changes
Aug 1, 2022 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: Google pays roughly $15B for default search in Safari and Mozilla
“And so Google is paying something like fifteen billion dollars to be the default search engine in Mozilla and Safari and whatever else is out there, basically Mozilla and Safari.”
Benedict Evans Aug 1, 2022 ▶ 12:39 The FTC's antitrust thesis
Aug 15, 2022 neutral
Assertion Supported
Evans: Specialized vertical software on iPads captured restaurants, not Big Tech
“That didn't get eaten by Google, or Amazon, or Apple. It's a generic iPad in a case, and then there's However many software companies, a bunch of software companies that go and solve, this is what restaurants need.”
Benedict Evans Aug 15, 2022 ▶ 20:09 Lighting and tech diffusion
Sep 5, 2022 bearish
Opinion
Evans: Apple and Google suffered a complete strategic failure in TV
“This is another piece of the story is Apple and Google sort of complete strategic failure in TV. What Apple and Google wanted to do and what Apple wanted to do with the Apple TV and indeed with the Apple TV app they have now. And remember the Apple TV original…”
Benedict Evans Sep 5, 2022 ▶ 11:32 TV after software
Oct 31, 2022 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Benedict Evans: Meta's massive VR spend builds nonexistent hardware supply chains
“It's like, that's kind of why they're spending all this money, because they realize now actually there isn't all the stuff you need to get VR working actually isn't sort of already there waiting to be plugged together the way smartphones kind of work. and s…”
Benedict Evans Oct 31, 2022 ▶ 30:49 How many metaverses?
Nov 29, 2022 positive
Opinion
Evans: Semiconductor chips are strategically interesting to tech again beyond Apple
“You know, there's a longer conversation to have around chips, which I think have become strategically interesting to the rest of tech for the first time in a very long time like beyond, beyond just Apple.”
Benedict Evans Nov 29, 2022 ▶ 0:58 All the other things happening in tech part 1.
Dec 11, 2022 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: Most Big Tech sub-threshold acquisitions were under $10M and 10 employees
“And the vast majority of them were less than 10 people, and less than ten million dollars.”
Benedict Evans Dec 11, 2022 ▶ 23:17 No Soup for You! Regulating tech M&A
Dec 11, 2022 negative
Opinion
Evans: DOJ e-books lawsuit effectively protected Amazon's monopoly
“The DOJ basically goes to court in order to protect the position of a monopolist. Now that was actually what happened. What they said they were, or thought they were doing, was protecting low consumer prices, which was also what was happening. But the low cons…”
Benedict Evans Dec 11, 2022 ▶ 37:54 No Soup for You! Regulating tech M&A
Dec 11, 2022 positive
What-if
Evans: Blocking Apple's PA Semi deal would have preserved Intel-Qualcomm duopoly
“Apple is making basically better chips than Intel or Qualcomm today, and it's doing that based on the acquisition of PA Semi, which was now a decade ago, also ago, 15 years ago, and what would, if the FTC had blocked that, Then basically they'd have gifted the…”
Benedict Evans Dec 11, 2022 ▶ 27:32 No Soup for You! Regulating tech M&A
Dec 19, 2022
Insight
Goldberg: Designing custom chips yields no direct cost savings versus buying
“And if you actually do the math and sort of figure out cost, cost of designing your own chip versus buying from someone else, it turns out that there is no cost savings directly. You only want to design a chip that conveys some form of strategic advantage, rig…”
Jay Goldberg Dec 19, 2022 ▶ 9:40 Why are chips interesting again?
Dec 19, 2022 positive
Opinion
Benedict Evans: Apple designs better chips than Intel
“Apple designs better chips.”
Benedict Evans Dec 19, 2022 ▶ 1:16 Why are chips interesting again?
Dec 19, 2022 positive
Prediction Partly held up
Goldberg: TSMC's Arizona fab will lag leading-edge chips by half a generation
“And now I think that's actually gonna be a real plant in Arizona. And I think it's gonna have decent capacity enough to sort of satisfy the U.S. Military's needs and Apple's needs. And it will be, I don't think it'll be even a generation behind. I think it'll …”
Jay Goldberg Dec 19, 2022 ▶ 25:11 Why are chips interesting again?
Feb 12, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Evans: The tech industry will aggressively push AI compute to local devices
“So there will be this massive push to kind of shift as much compute as you can down onto the device.”
Benedict Evans Feb 12, 2023 ▶ 26:58 ChatGPT versus Google
Feb 12, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Evans: Google pays Apple nearly $20B for default iPhone search
“Google pays, Apple pays, Apple probably close to twenty billion dollars to be the default search engine on the iPhone.”
Benedict Evans Feb 12, 2023 ▶ 25:35 ChatGPT versus Google
Apr 16, 2023 neutral
Prediction Held up
Evans: Apple appears set to launch pass-through VR, not AR glasses
“It doesn't sound like it. It sounds like they're planning to do that with a VR headset.”
Benedict Evans Apr 16, 2023 ▶ 21:02 Metaverse and crypto - beyond the BS
Apr 16, 2023 bearish
Prediction Held up
Evans: If Apple launches a $3,000 headset, it will sell negligible volume
“And if it is 3000 dollars, well, they're not going to shift any volume of that this year, so it will remain, like, very early.”
Benedict Evans Apr 16, 2023 ▶ 14:58 Metaverse and crypto - beyond the BS
Apr 16, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Evans: Meta spends billions inventing tech, unlike Apple's original off-the-shelf iPhone
“Meta is spending tens of billions of dollars every year on all of that Moore's law, because where Apple could basically sit on top of an awful lot of technology that already existed, like they didn't need to create ARM from scratch. They didn't need to invent …”
Benedict Evans Apr 16, 2023 ▶ 13:05 Metaverse and crypto - beyond the BS
Jun 5, 2023 neutral
Prediction Held up
Evans: Apple will sell 200,000 Vision Pro units in 2024
“I'm not the right analyst to ask, but you know, they're not going to sell fifty million of them next year. They might, you know, they might sell a couple, they're going to sell a couple of 100,000.”
Benedict Evans Jun 5, 2023 ▶ 11:59 Apple Vision
Jun 5, 2023 neutral
Insight
Evans: Apple launched Vision Pro with 20 use cases, mimicking Watch playbook
“They've kind of done what they did with the watch. And what they did with the iPad, which is make a list of 20 possible things that might work, try all of them, and then later on we'll double down on what works.”
Benedict Evans Jun 5, 2023 ▶ 2:47 Apple Vision
Jun 5, 2023 negative
Opinion
Evans doubts Vision Pro passthrough will enable all-day wear
“The ad they show is like the kid can run up to you and talk to you and you can still see them and interact with you, which I have to say I'm kind of skeptical about. It seems to me that's okay, that's just enough for you to see why I should take my headset off…”
Benedict Evans Jun 5, 2023 ▶ 4:35 Apple Vision
Jun 5, 2023 negative
Opinion
Evans: The metaverse is dead and was always a meaningless term
“Obviously metaverse is dead which is good because it's a meaningless term and no one knows what anybody else might.”
Benedict Evans Jun 5, 2023 ▶ 6:32 Apple Vision
Jun 5, 2023 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2028
Evans: Apple will release a cheaper non-Pro 'Vision' headset
“This is called the Vision Pro, very clear signaling that there's going to be a Vision. So there's going to be cheaper, you know, the price will kind of cascade down.”
Benedict Evans Jun 5, 2023 ▶ 11:41 Apple Vision
Jun 5, 2023 bullish
Prediction Held up
Evans: The iPhone 15 will feature a 3D video camera
“I think it's now blinding the obvious that the iPhone 15 will have a three D video camera so that you can create content that will flow into this.”
Benedict Evans Jun 5, 2023 ▶ 9:14 Apple Vision
Jun 5, 2023 positive
Insight
Evans: Vision Pro mirrors iPhone as an unspecific piece of glass
“There's kind of comparison with the iPad, the iPhone here, which is that I used to say the iPhone is just a piece of glass and it can become anything. It's part of getting rid of the buttons is it became totally unspecific. It's just a piece of glass that coul…”
Benedict Evans Jun 5, 2023 ▶ 27:56 Apple Vision
Jun 5, 2023 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Evans: Fitness is the only non-gaming use case working for Oculus
“The one thing they didn't talk about is fitness, which is interesting because VR fitness is the one thing that's other than games sort of work for Oculus.”
Benedict Evans Jun 5, 2023 ▶ 3:54 Apple Vision
Jun 5, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Evans: Original Mac and Apple II cost $6,000–$8,000 in today's money
“The original Mac that was like seven or eight grand in today's money. The original Mac, the Apple II was like six or seven grand in today's money adjusted for inflation.”
Benedict Evans Jun 5, 2023 ▶ 12:40 Apple Vision
Jun 5, 2023 positive
Insight
Evans: Vision Pro delivers five-year-future AR/VR capabilities at $3,500
“This is sort of the dream VR AR device from five years time. But today, which is, or rather next year, which is sort of why it's five, three and a half grand and not 500 bucks.”
Benedict Evans Jun 5, 2023 ▶ 1:08 Apple Vision
Jun 18, 2023
Insight
Benedict Evans: Augmented reality requires a strict visual realism threshold to work
“Whereas for AR, it either looks like it's there or it looks, or it doesn't. That's the thesis. And so it has to have that base level. And so Apple is basically saying that all the stuff that's on the market now just isn't worth selling.”
Benedict Evans Jun 18, 2023 ▶ 8:29 Vision Pro, two weeks on
Jun 18, 2023 neutral
Opinion
Benedict Evans: Vision Pro's absolute upside is iPad scale, not smartphone scale
“The best this is going to be, I think, is this is a pass to be the new iPad. It's a pass to be Hundreds of millions. That's the upside case for this, because you can't wear it everywhere. It's not something that five billion people are going to carry with them…”
Benedict Evans Jun 18, 2023 ▶ 42:32 Vision Pro, two weeks on
Jun 18, 2023 neutral
Insight
Benedict Evans: Spatial computing turns the metaverse into a mere app icon
“With a feature phone, internet was one icon on your telephone. Whereas on a smartphone, the telephone is one icon on your computer. So kind of whole thing gets kind of pulled inside out. And that's sort of the AR VR thesis here that Apple has is no metaverse i…”
Benedict Evans Jun 18, 2023 ▶ 11:47 Vision Pro, two weeks on
Jun 18, 2023 neutral
Prediction Partly held up
Benedict Evans: Screen shortages will cap 2024 Vision Pro sales
“And so Apple will sell, pick a number, tens to low hundreds of thousands of them next year, but picking a number wildly out of thin air, apparently people in supply chain say they'll be very supply constrained on the screen.”
Benedict Evans Jun 18, 2023 ▶ 13:50 Vision Pro, two weeks on
Jun 18, 2023 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Benedict Evans: Cheaper Apple Vision models will drive volume sales by 2026
“And that will have sort of sales in volume in maybe twenty-twenty-five or twenty-twenty-six, and then there'll be the Vision Vision and the Vision SE and so on, and the price will slowly come down”
Benedict Evans Jun 18, 2023 ▶ 15:26 Vision Pro, two weeks on
Jun 18, 2023 positive
Assertion Supported
Benedict Evans: Apple's laptop-grade silicon gives Vision Pro an architectural advantage
“Apple is using a high-end laptop SAC in this thing because they have their own, which has massively better performance per watt than anything from Intel. Guess what Meta has to use? They have to use a smartphone chip from Volcom.”
Benedict Evans Jun 18, 2023 ▶ 27:46 Vision Pro, two weeks on
Jun 18, 2023 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Benedict Evans: VR cannot become general computing without text-capable high-resolution screens
“You need the screen that Apple has shipped to do text at all. And you have, and you could propose that you can't do anything other than games, maybe fitness, maybe VR, maybe, maybe, maybe TV, maybe a couple of other niche things. Without text. And so VR is not…”
Benedict Evans Jun 18, 2023 ▶ 36:58 Vision Pro, two weeks on
Jun 18, 2023 positive
Opinion
Benedict Evans: Apple pulled 2030's dream AR and VR hardware into 2024
“What they've done is they've taken the dream device that everyone was sort of saying we need to have and that everyone sort of thought they would have in 2030. Maybe earlier, but basically, for the sake of argument. And they're going to sell it in 2024, so it'…”
Benedict Evans Jun 18, 2023 ▶ 4:04 Vision Pro, two weeks on
Jun 18, 2023 neutral
Insight
Benedict Evans: Vision Pro mirrors the 1984 Mac's uncertain utility and price
“In that sense, it's actually, you could kind of compare it to the Macintosh, which launches in 1984 and was over 7000 dollars in today's money. And most people still didn't know why they needed it. And I think Apple only sold like half a million in the first y…”
Benedict Evans Jun 18, 2023 ▶ 3:26 Vision Pro, two weeks on
Jul 21, 2023 negative
Opinion
App Store privacy labels are a self-inflicted wound for Apple
“And so it's weird because the weird thing about this is this is actually hurting Apple. Clearly it's the problem with Meta and Twitter and anybody else with an app on the store, but it's also hurting Apple because Apple is telling people that there's no privac…”
Benedict Evans Jul 21, 2023 ▶ 31:42 Threads
Feb 8, 2024 neutral
Insight
Devins: Meta has the right price; Apple has the right device
“And what I wrote last summer was that Meta basically has the right price and is working towards the right device. And Apple has almost the right device and is working back towards the right price.”
Benedict Evans Feb 8, 2024 ▶ 8:45 Apple's Vision Pro
Feb 8, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Devins: Apple pre-sold 200,000 Vision Pro units
“Well, apparently they pre-sold 200,000 units”
Benedict Evans Feb 8, 2024 ▶ 0:22 Apple's Vision Pro
Feb 8, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Devins: Bull case for Apple Vision headsets is 200 million users
“The thesis I'm groping towards is this is something that a couple of hundred, the bull case is a couple of hundred million people will have one of these eventually.”
Benedict Evans Feb 8, 2024 ▶ 24:58 Apple's Vision Pro
Mar 13, 2024 neutral
Opinion
Evans: US and EU Exhibit Radically Different Approaches to Tech Regulation
“And I thought there was just kind of an interesting symmetry there in these two sort of radically different approaches to regulation and to political control of technology companies.”
Benedict Evans Mar 13, 2024 ▶ 0:58 Tiktok, Apple and Temu
Mar 13, 2024 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: The EU Issued Apple a €2 Billion Fine Over Spotify
“Apple has just got its first first find from the EU. Two billion euros over Spotify, and also there's a bunch of to-ing and fro-ing over exactly how it implements the DMA and rules for third-party apps and Epic and web apps and so on.”
Benedict Evans Mar 13, 2024 ▶ 0:22 Tiktok, Apple and Temu
Mar 13, 2024 negative
Insight
Evans: Generalized EU tech rules become complex when platforms implement them
“The EU is trying to say, look, let's just have like a kind of general, generalized rules that will sort of try and capture lots of different questions at once. The problem is, of course, as soon as you get into how does Apple actually implement this in the app…”
Benedict Evans Mar 13, 2024 ▶ 8:18 Tiktok, Apple and Temu
Mar 13, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Evans: Apple Reversed Its Decision to Drop Web Apps in the EU
“Last week Apple said, well, we're not going to have web apps in the EU anymore. And then they said, oh, we changed our mind. We'll do it differently.”
Benedict Evans Mar 13, 2024 ▶ 33:49 Tiktok, Apple and Temu
Mar 13, 2024 negative
Opinion
Evans: Forcing Phones to Operate Like Windows Harms Users and Developers
“Apple actually doesn't want your phone to work like Windows, and that would be actually pretty bad for users and developers, and B, the EU has kind of come in with the sort of classic middle manager foolishness of saying, there's a trade-off here, and you have…”
Benedict Evans Mar 13, 2024 ▶ 4:46 Tiktok, Apple and Temu
Mar 13, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Evans: Apple Briefly Banned and Reinstated Epic Games' Developer Account
“Apple kicked Epic off the app store for about two days and then changed their mind.”
Benedict Evans Mar 13, 2024 ▶ 33:42 Tiktok, Apple and Temu
Aug 19, 2024
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Apple is more likely to replace ChatGPT than build a search engine
“It's much more likely, I think, that Apple will shift questions from ChatGPT to its own foundation model than it would shift questions from Google to its own general search engine, I think.”
Benedict Evans Aug 19, 2024 ▶ 27:36 Google's Antitrust case
Aug 19, 2024
Prediction Held up
Apple will maintain Google defaults while routing specialized queries to AI
“Apple will carry on treating Google as the default general search engine. They'll just peel more stuff out into their own foundation model or into chat TPT or into booking.com.”
Benedict Evans Aug 19, 2024 ▶ 30:15 Google's Antitrust case
Aug 19, 2024 negative
Opinion
The DOJ gerrymandered its market definition in the Apple antitrust lawsuit
“The DOJ is suing Apple for having what the DOJ, claiming the DOJ describes as a monopoly of, quote, performance smartphones, which Apple described as gerrymandering, and I'm kind of inclined to agree”
Benedict Evans Aug 19, 2024 ▶ 20:48 Google's Antitrust case
Aug 19, 2024 neutral
Opinion
Google pays Apple $20 billion annually to prevent vertical query routing
“And Apple is being paid twenty billion dollars a year not to do anything else here. So they're being paid twenty billion dollars a year not to say this is a hotel's query, maybe we'll send you straight to booking.com. They're being paid twenty billion dollars …”
Benedict Evans Aug 19, 2024 ▶ 12:47 Google's Antitrust case
Aug 19, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
The US court cannot compel Apple to add Safari choice screens
“The court can't make Apple put a choice screen in Safari. Like, Apple isn't in court. Like, they haven't been convicted of anything.”
Benedict Evans Aug 19, 2024 ▶ 7:52 Google's Antitrust case
Apr 5, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Evans: Apple marketed Apple Intelligence heavily but missed launching key feature
“Apple has obviously put Apple intelligence on billboards everywhere, and had this coherent set of individual specific features, and then, of course, failed to launch the most important one.”
Benedict Evans Apr 5, 2025 ▶ 22:50 Looking for AI strategies
Aug 21, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Evans: Apple Acts as 'Dumb Money' in TV Streaming Strategy
“It's like all they're doing is being what in the value we used to call dumb money. You know, they go to LA with a big checkbook, and they write checks to people in LA, and people in LA give them a TV show. And they go, and Apple goes and runs it on their infra…”
Benedict Evans Aug 21, 2025 ▶ 35:50 A double episode: AI differentiation, and Apple does F1
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