The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 28 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Lonsdale: Xi Jinping will shut down TikTok rather than allow a sale
“I think because this is such a powerful tool for the CCP that Xi Jinping will not allow it to be Sold out of his control and we'll turn it off instead.”
Cotton: Supreme Court will restrict nationwide district court injunctions
“So I think these activist liberal judges are issuing so many of these injunctions that you will see a decision I hope sooner rather than later at the Supreme Court where the Supreme Court using its power the apex of our judicial system outlines the circumstanc…”
McCord: AI infrastructure spending will reach $1T by early 2030s
“I think, you know, it'll be the biggest infrastructure build that humanity has ever done, I think. I think you could make that argument. I think we will hit a trillion dollars in the early 20 thirties.”
Baker: Global economic recovery is causing goods inflation to accelerate again
“And now goods is accelerating again because the rest of the world is recovering.”
Slat: Ocean Cleanup technology will be ready to scale by late 2024
“And yeah, I think in about nine months time, we should be at the point that we can say, Hey, we're ready. We're ready for this. The technology is ready. Now it's just up to the willingness of the world to make this happen and make it scale.”
Gerstner: More compute will be deployed in 2024 than all previous history
“We're gonna deploy more compute in twenty-twenty-four than in all previous years combined.”
Gerstner: 10-year yields are peaking and rate cuts are coming in 2024
“We're nearing the top of tenure, if not at the top. We're gonna see rate cuts next year, and importantly, we're at the beginning of what may be the most important super cycle, accelerant, to our economy in a long time.”
Aboyeji: Africa will have the majority of the global workforce by 2035
“In fact, just in the next 15 years, Africa is already majority of the world's working population.”
Berdichevsky: Automotive scale will make lithium-ion dominate electrical grid storage
“Being somebody who's in lithium ion, I actually think the scale of automotive will also lead lithium ion to dominate most of the grid.”
Balaji Srinivasan: Bitcoin will be 10x PayPal and may be 10x gold
“I think Bitcoin will in the fullness of time, it's certainly 10 X, it will be 10 X PayPal. It may be 10 X gold.”
Defensive teams will run offensive AI agents to train defense systems
“There is no question that In the future, you'll have AI agents on offense run by the good guys to train the AI on defense run by the good guys.”
Mandia: Good guys will use offensive AI agents to train defensive AI
“There is no question that in the future you'll have AI agents on offense run by the good guys to train the AI on defense run by the good guys.”
Lonsdale: Joby Aviation will launch operations in Dubai within a year
“I think we're going to be launching in Dubai with Joby in the coming year.”
Lonsdale: Joby Aviation will be the first eVTOL company to deploy
“And so I think you guys, like you said, you're first through, you're going to be the first to deploy.”
Cotton: China's nuclear arsenal will double by 2030 and again by 2035
“They've more than doubled the number of warheads they have since Xi took office. It's gonna double again, our Pentagon estimates, by the end of this decade, and double again by the middle of the next decade.”
Lowery: Epirus Will Enter a DoD Program of Record in 2025
“We are deploying to CENTCOM. If those deployments are successful, we will be palmed into a program or record In 20, 25.”
Gerstner: Fed's 1.5% GDP forecast for 2024 is probably overly optimistic
“The Fed has said its forecast for next year is 1.5% on GDP. I think that's probably rosy. Given, ah, the things that we're seeing in the world, 20% credit cards, 10% car loans, eight percent mortgages are having a deleterious impact on consumption.”
Hodges: Private market assets will reach $25T in a couple of years
“It's a 15 trillion dollar asset industry today. It's going to be a 25 trillion dollar asset industry in the next couple of years.”
Srinivasan: Europe, Asia, and Latin America will keep Bitcoin legal
“That means that Europe, the Middle East, big parts of Latin America, big parts of Asia, it will be at a minimum legal to buy, sell, send, and receive Bitcoin.”
Williams: Half of Americans will view the 2024 election as illegitimate
“Fully half of the country, I think in 20, 24 Either way the election pans out will feel that the election was illegitimate, and that's.”
Kloberdanz: OneHope will become the largest US DTC wine brand
“And we'll be the largest direct to consumer wine brand in the U S in the next couple of years too.”
Kloberdanz: People born today are on track to live to 150
“But we're on the way to where people are expected to live to like a 150 that are being born now.”
Kimbal Musk predicts Tesla Austin factory will produce cars by late 2021
“Yeah, we'll have the whole thing done in in about a year, 12 months at fifteen million square feet factory, and hopefully have cars being produced there within, you know, by the end of twenty-twenty-one, you know, it's pretty amazing.”
Verdon: Extropic thermodynamic compute will reach production in a couple years
“I'm, I haven't announced any prototypes yet, but you know, we have our first test chips, and we're iterating, but I think a couple years from now, we'll be able to have this in, in production.”
Barnard: EVs will integrate with home bi-directional power in under three years
“Your electric car will be fully integrated in this house we're sitting in in probably under three years with bi-directional inverters where you'll say, well, wait a minute, I kind of want to, you know, deploy energy into my car right now, or maybe I want my ca…”
Sprowls predicts risk assessment will highlight cybersecurity and coastal flooding
“I believe that you're going to see massive risks in cybersecurity. I think you're gonna see massive risks in coastal flooding, both of which are two issues that we looked at last year and had some significant movement on.”