The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 578 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Andreessen: Universities and employers hire African immigrants over African Americans
“Both the universities and the corporate employers are literally, this is true. They're literally, they literally import Africans so that they don't have to hire African Americans. Because they still count as black.”
AI-native developers are over 100x more productive than traditional engineers
“It's not 10 X. It's more than a hundred X productivity with an AI native developer working on software. We've had over a hundred commits in a day building our software. We have a different demo every two to three days. I never had that before.”
Ross: Zero full-time engineers at Coverage write code manually anymore
“Not a single one of our full-time engineers right now writes code anymore. They do everything through Codex, Cloud Code, or Cursor.”
Lonsdale: Claudine Gay targeted Roland Fryer over police violence research
“And of course, Clyde and Gay, who at the time wasn't even president yet, but she was like a big internal African-American woman activists at Harvard. She went after him and she found a former student who, and she got the former student from like 10 years ago t…”
Liautaud: 100% of Political Attacks Originated From Democratic-Aligned Groups
“I learned that every attack and every, every single one came from democratic supported parties, different, different, different, different groups. But it was a hundred percent. Liberal and Democrat people, Soros type stuff.”
Xi Jinping's primary window to invade Taiwan is 2028 to 2032
“And if he wants it to be accomplished on his own watch, I think that's going to be the window in his mind, at least 28 through 32. And beyond that, I think, you know, I don't think he's penciled the date certain in the calendar. It's going to be conditions dep…”
Balaji: US federal loyalists will switch allegiance to China during financial collapse
“And so one thing I don't think people are taking into account is that a lot of people who are you know, Currently very for the federal government. If it has serious financial difficulty, we'll simply fold into the new Chinese overlords.”
Mack hung up on Geithner, Bernanke, and Paulson over $2 buyout demand
“I go over and pick up the phone, and he said, I'm on here with Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson. You know, we want you to sell your firm. And I said, well, you know, out of respect for you, I called Jamie Dimon, and he'd only pay me two dollars a share. And Guy A…”
Lonsdale: Brands get 10x better sales using fit models over obese models
“One of the funny things, which I probably shouldn't say, but I will, is that we have consumer stuff we do sometimes, and a lot of the consumer companies I see around are starting to put, like, very obese people as their models, and I asked our partners who kno…”
Lonsdale: Robots will be able to perform any task within two years
“In the next couple years, robots are going to be able to do everything.”
Levie: China's open source AI is only 1-3 months behind US frontier
“There's an open source ecosystem in, in China that is near neck and neck. Let's say at least still maybe kind of, you know, one to three months behind, but not a year or two years behind.”
Lonsdale: AI-native startups will crush incumbents by redesigning workflows from scratch
“It's so hard to like re-engineer how some of these things work based on what's possible today. That they're just going to get crushed by new companies started by younger people who are like, maybe not even younger necessarily, but people who are just doing thi…”
Ross: In five years, workers will one-shot custom software, making SaaS worthless
“If you take the five year view, kids who are in college today who come out and start working in a construction company or something are going to look at every problem they're paying for software and say, this doesn't do exactly what I need. And I can one shot …”
Hughes: Claim That American Revolution Fought to Preserve Slavery Is False
“The most controversial, and because it was false and poorly researched, was the idea that the 13 colonies rebelled against Britain in order to preserve slavery. That, the idea they were afraid that Britain was about to take their slaves, or about to emancipate…”
Sandler: Prosecutor Admitted Lowell Milken Was Indicted to Pressure Michael
“When we asked us specifically about the dive in a low milk and he acknowledged the fact that Lowell would not have been indicted if it wasn't to bring pressure on his brother.”
Kaplan: Cognition measured 6x to 12x productivity gains with Devin in 2024
“And, you know, relatively quickly by like late 20, 24, we were measuring You know, somewhere between a six to 12 x productivity gain for those types of projects. Meaning that, you know, one hour of human time spent managing Devin was worth like six to 12 hours…”
Ross: Mid-market SaaS will be worthless in five years due to AI
“I think it's a barbell thing. Like, the large AI companies are gonna eat the top end of value, and everyone in the middle is gonna just commoditize, or people who aren't even in the software business. Like, in the next two or three years, this isn't true, righ…”
Liemandt: Alpha students learn twice as much in just two hours
“In our model, right, we have built a learning engine that teaches kids 10 times faster. And so how that reacts or how you see it in our school is our kids come in, our students come in two hours a day. They're at an AI tutor. It's not Teacher in front of the c…”
Liemandt: Alpha School Ranks in Top 1% Nationally Across All Classes
“And so our academic performance, we're the best performing academic school in the country. We're, you know, all our classes now are, you know, are top one percent.”
Zachary Levi: Famous Hollywood Figures Secretly Supported Trump but Feared Career Fallout
“I know a lot of people, like you were mentioning, there's people that, you know, people I know, very famous people in Hollywood that are intelligent enough to recognize that that's the way they needed to vote, but they also were like, oh, but I don't know what…”
Levi: AI will automate the new jobs created to replace displaced workers
“So when people make the argument, well, Yes. It will replace these jobs, but it will create more jobs. I go, yeah, except that it can do those new jobs as well.”
Machado: Nicolás Maduro Runs the Tren de Aragua Transnational Gang
“Maduro has promoted criminal structures and gangs, such as the Trenderagua that operates It's from Canada to Argentina, but the head of the Trendera is Maduro, and it's the same with the drug cartels.”
Machado: Oil companies in Venezuela must partner with drug cartels
“If you operate here, you are forced to operate in alliance, in a society, with a mafia system, with a drug cartel.”
Machado: Foro de Sao Paulo exchanges resources to promote regional election fraud
“Here in Latin America, Puerto de Sao Paulo and other left-wing groups had managed to exchange technology, information, resources, even to promote fraud, fraudulent elections all over the region.”
Vought: The President Has Apportionment Power to Turn Off Unnecessary Funding
“Ultimately with the ability to use the power, the apportionment power that the president has to turn off funding if it's not necessary until he can make sure that bureaucracy isn't wasting money on things that are inconsistent with his administration.”
Lonsdale: Zuckerberg Built an 'Anti-Woke' School After Facebook's Became Far-Left
“He and a bunch of my friends have a school that's, like, sort of anti, anti-woke, because the school of Facebook was super woke, and so they all had to, like, build something else.”
Lonsdale: Competitors are weaponizing Reid Hoffman's politics against Joby
“One fund that put a billion dollars in is my friend. Michael Thompson, who he, you know, I feel like I'm friends with both sides, but I'm kind of on the moderate right, I'm on the right, and Michael is on the right, and his partner Reid Hoffman's on the left, …”
Lonsdale: Slow FDA review enables China to commercialize US biotech IP first
“We'll start something here that's based on a new breakthrough, a really important new target, and because the FDA is so slow, because it takes you a decade, and China only takes four or five years, they'll literally start something a few years after taking all…”
Lessin: AI is not disruptive and incumbents should broadly win
“You know, I'd actually argue that AI is kind of like mobile. It's not disruptive. It's great tech to be clear. It's important, but just as the internet, I would say that just as like mobile was just More internet and pervasive internet. AI is just like more te…”
Thiel: U.S. military's DCGS software was a failed billion-dollar boondoggle
“There was this software program. This was once we moved from intelligence community into the broader military called DSIGs, which was just sort of this in theory was a system we were supposed to figure out ways to integrate the data across all these units in t…”
Thiel: Trump's Second Term Will Accomplish More Than His First
“Normally the second term does less than the first term, This is going to be the, I think will be the real first term.”
Thiel: Top tech CEOs express radically different views in private versus public
“There was a incredible felt sense among all the top CEOs I know in Silicon Valley that there's all the stuff you can't talk about. There are things they tell me behind closed doors that are very different from what they feel they can say in public. And the gap…”
Cotton: Trump and Hegseth are willing to order military strikes against cartels
“President Trump is certainly willing to do that. Obviously Pete Hexeth is too.”
Israetel: AI will reach superintelligence by 2026 and vastly surpass humans by 2029
“Once AI becomes super intelligent, which should occur in like 20, 26 or something like that. If it hasn't already, I'm not kidding. I'm not saying this very soon. Once it's super intelligent and then by 20, 29, it's going to be like orders of magnitude smarter…”
Frerichs: Companies Abandoning ESG and DEI Will Massively Outperform
“I think this is actually an interesting opportunity to see which companies are walking back from a lot of the ESG and DI commitments. I think those ones are going to massively outperform the ones that try and serve every single.”
Gil: LLMs will eventually advance to perform all human services
“You have these steps, and so it's this ladder that you're climbing, and eventually you're going to hit a point where it can do all of human services, right? And I don't know if that's GPT seven equivalent or eight or six or 10 or whatever, but we're going to g…”
U.S. will instruct Taiwan not to fire first during a Chinese invasion
“And Taiwan can't fire first. In fact, we will tell them that you can't fire first on the Chinese because you don't want to be the one that will quote unquote provoke the war.”
Lowery: AI-controlled battle systems will be necessary to fight drone swarms
“And in the case of this type of warfare, it's going to be necessary. The necessary decision to go forward with AI-controlled battle otherwise a man or a human in the loop won't work.”
Winston: Economic evidence shows antitrust actions rarely improve consumer welfare
“I went through all the evidence that economists had accumulated. I said, you know, where, where have they done well? You know, monopolization cases, collusion cases, merger cases. Where is there anything strong that shows, yes, consumer welfare, Has improved. …”
Lonsdale: British intel chief believed Iran tricked US into Iraq war
“And one of my mentors ran British intelligence and was involved before the Iraq war in the U.S. And he tells me that the Iranians are very, very clever, the regime and certain people there. And he says that, that he believes from the best intelligence he saw, …”
Lomborg: Education returns $65 per dollar versus roughly $2 for climate spending
“Should I be spending money, for instance, on education and get 65 dollars for every dollar spent? Or should I spend it on environment? And if we're very lucky on climate, you can get a couple of dollars back on the dollar.”
Slat: Modern per-capita environmental impact is smaller than hunter-gatherers'
“So I think per capita, our environmental impact today is actually smaller than the hunter gatherers.”
Gerstner: ByteDance expects 90% content moderator reduction via AI in next year
“They suspect that they'll see a 90% reduction in content moderators over the course of the next year because that work can be more efficiently and better done by AI.”
Gerstner: Next five years will be the most disruptive labor moment in modern capitalism
“I think this is gonna be the most, ah, disruptive moment in labor markets in the history of modern capitalism. Over the course of the next five years.”
Gerstner: Twitter cut headcount 80% while boosting product releases 70%
“Elon, with the work that he's done at Twitter, right, they reduced headcount by 70, 80%. And the product release cycle is probably gone up by at least 70%, right? It's incredible what they have in the pipeline there, and the fact that they're doing this with, …”
Andreessen: Key economic sectors have stagnated or regressed over past 50 years
“Like we we've been in this 50 year period of actually very low productivity growth and very low technological change throughout our society. Which is sort of the opposite of what a lot of people think they've experienced, but like just practically speaking, mo…”
Balaji: The 2023 banking crisis will not return to normal like 2008
“Because ultimately, 2008 was, quote, just a recession, and I think things came back to normal in a sense afterwards. I don't think things are going to come back to normal after this one. I think this is the big one.”
Balaji predicts US will divide into Bitcoin states and dollar states
“And I actually think this becomes a very important dividing line and political issue where it's essentially the Bitcoin states where you know, people are allowed to hold Bitcoin in private hands and the dollar states where they're not. Basically meaning you li…”