The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,572 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 63 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Andreessen: Universities and employers hire African immigrants over African Americans
“Both the universities and the corporate employers are literally, this is true. They're literally, they literally import Africans so that they don't have to hire African Americans. Because they still count as black.”
Thiel: Lawsuit discovery proved the Army covered up reports favoring Palantir
“And then when you and then what you can do when you sue somebody is you get discovery and you discover, and you sort of discover what's going on in the sausage making factory that no one's investigated for 22 years. And there's a lot of stuff and we're sort of…”
Fryer: Police Study Found Racial Bias in Non-Lethal Force, None in Shootings
“And what we found was that on the lower level uses of force, there are racial differences that we couldn't explain. And we put them through formal bias test, and there is bias that goes on in the lower level uses of force. What we didn't find was any, that tha…”
AI-native developers are over 100x more productive than traditional engineers
“It's not 10 X. It's more than a hundred X productivity with an AI native developer working on software. We've had over a hundred commits in a day building our software. We have a different demo every two to three days. I never had that before.”
Ross: Zero full-time engineers at Coverage write code manually anymore
“Not a single one of our full-time engineers right now writes code anymore. They do everything through Codex, Cloud Code, or Cursor.”
Liemandt: Alpha 3rd and 4th Graders Outscore 50% of US High School Grads
“We have third and fourth graders who outscore 50% of the high school graduates in this country.”
Andreessen: General-purpose robotics will scale massively over the next decade
“These human robots, like the general purpose robotics thing is going to happen, and it's going to happen in the next decade, and it's going to happen at giant scale, and I think there's a plausible argument, which Elon also believes, that robotics is going to …”
Lonsdale: Claudine Gay targeted Roland Fryer over police violence research
“And of course, Clyde and Gay, who at the time wasn't even president yet, but she was like a big internal African-American woman activists at Harvard. She went after him and she found a former student who, and she got the former student from like 10 years ago t…”
Liautaud: 100% of Political Attacks Originated From Democratic-Aligned Groups
“I learned that every attack and every, every single one came from democratic supported parties, different, different, different, different groups. But it was a hundred percent. Liberal and Democrat people, Soros type stuff.”
Ross: Los Angeles School Superintendent Abolished High School Math
“Milken Institute sent me an interview they had done with the head of the school system in Los Angeles, and the reason they did an interview with them is he had abolished, prohibited the teaching of mathematics in high school.”
Xi Jinping's primary window to invade Taiwan is 2028 to 2032
“And if he wants it to be accomplished on his own watch, I think that's going to be the window in his mind, at least 28 through 32. And beyond that, I think, you know, I don't think he's penciled the date certain in the calendar. It's going to be conditions dep…”
Lonsdale: Majority of Young Adults Dislike Jews for Their Success
“And now in 19 to 25 year olds, majority of them don't like Jews because we're successful.”
Verdon: Centralized bioweapon defense research accidentally created a damaging virus
“There was centralized research on Bio, you know, bioweapon defense. Right. And we were worried about a potential virus that could do a lot of damage. And then it was actually accidentally created through that research.”
Gallagher: Illegal Reedley biolab held Ebola, HIV, and tuberculosis samples
“Eventually it was discovered that these vials contained Ebola HIV, tuberculosis. There was a freezer labeled Ebola. It was like these silver Ziplocs inside and the CDC wouldn't test it, which is crazy.”
Balaji: Rate hikes will cause systemic failure across the US banking sector
“Powell is crashing the plane, and SVB and FRC and others were just positioned near the front of the plane. Okay. So like everybody's gonna die is my point.”
Balaji: US federal loyalists will switch allegiance to China during financial collapse
“And so one thing I don't think people are taking into account is that a lot of people who are you know, Currently very for the federal government. If it has serious financial difficulty, we'll simply fold into the new Chinese overlords.”
Balaji: Gold Seizure-Style Executive Order Will Be Attempted in US
“What I do think is I think that there is probably enough strength among grays and reds to prevent a complete repeat of executive order. Six one Oh two. I think it's going to be attempted.”
Mack hung up on Geithner, Bernanke, and Paulson over $2 buyout demand
“I go over and pick up the phone, and he said, I'm on here with Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson. You know, we want you to sell your firm. And I said, well, you know, out of respect for you, I called Jamie Dimon, and he'd only pay me two dollars a share. And Guy A…”
Lonsdale: Brands get 10x better sales using fit models over obese models
“One of the funny things, which I probably shouldn't say, but I will, is that we have consumer stuff we do sometimes, and a lot of the consumer companies I see around are starting to put, like, very obese people as their models, and I asked our partners who kno…”
Lonsdale: Robots will be able to perform any task within two years
“In the next couple years, robots are going to be able to do everything.”
Levie: China's open source AI is only 1-3 months behind US frontier
“There's an open source ecosystem in, in China that is near neck and neck. Let's say at least still maybe kind of, you know, one to three months behind, but not a year or two years behind.”
Lonsdale: AI-native startups will crush incumbents by redesigning workflows from scratch
“It's so hard to like re-engineer how some of these things work based on what's possible today. That they're just going to get crushed by new companies started by younger people who are like, maybe not even younger necessarily, but people who are just doing thi…”
Ross: In five years, workers will one-shot custom software, making SaaS worthless
“If you take the five year view, kids who are in college today who come out and start working in a construction company or something are going to look at every problem they're paying for software and say, this doesn't do exactly what I need. And I can one shot …”
Lonsdale: Russia funded European green parties to halt fracking and eliminate competition
“They funded the green parties, they funded the protests, and they turned off fracking in Europe because it's so good for the environment. They tricked everyone because obviously they don't want competition.”
Hughes: 90% of New World Slaves Were Captured by African Tribes
“90% of the slaves that came to America or came to the new world, let's say, were originally captured and enslaved by other African tribes, by stronger African tribes, by victorious African tribes, and were sold to Europeans. Not at the point of a gun, but just…”
Hughes: Claim That American Revolution Fought to Preserve Slavery Is False
“The most controversial, and because it was false and poorly researched, was the idea that the 13 colonies rebelled against Britain in order to preserve slavery. That, the idea they were afraid that Britain was about to take their slaves, or about to emancipate…”
Hughes: 1619 Project Ignored Historian Leslie Harris's Fact-Checking Warnings
“They got this historian, Leslie Harris, who is a very respected historian and happens to be a black woman as well. Hey, like, look at this before we vet it. And she raised a huge red flag. She says, oh, hold on. This is totally not true, right? And they were l…”
Hughes: Slave-Picked Cotton Accounted for Only 3% of 19th-Century US Economy
“American exports peaked at six percent in In the 19th century. So it was half of six percent, meaning three percent. Three percent of our economy was due to slave picked cotton.”
Sandler: Prosecutor Admitted Lowell Milken Was Indicted to Pressure Michael
“When we asked us specifically about the dive in a low milk and he acknowledged the fact that Lowell would not have been indicted if it wasn't to bring pressure on his brother.”
Sandler: Milken pleaded to offenses never criminally prosecuted before or since
“None of which, and this is why I go in great detail in the book so people understand how in many ways ridiculous it is, none of which had ever been the subject of a criminal prosecution before or since.”
Kaplan: Cognition measured 6x to 12x productivity gains with Devin in 2024
“And, you know, relatively quickly by like late 20, 24, we were measuring You know, somewhere between a six to 12 x productivity gain for those types of projects. Meaning that, you know, one hour of human time spent managing Devin was worth like six to 12 hours…”
Loeffler: Biden Administration Tried to Forgive $200B in Pandemic Loans
“The Biden administration tried to forgive those loans, sweep it under the rug to the tune of about two hundred billion dollars.”
Loeffler: SBA revoked USAID authority over a $700M migration study contract
“Well, yeah, and the SBA earlier last year had to remove USAID's contracting authority because they were blowing out these programs. Eight programs for seven hundred million dollars for one contract to detect the root causes of migration into the United States.…”
Isaacman: NASA will return to Moon before Trump's term ends in 2028
“We're going to return to the moon before end of President Trump's term. We're going to build a moon base so we can stay.”
Isaacman: NASA leadership failures, not Boeing, caused Starliner issues
“I didn't blame Boeing. I blamed leadership failures and poor decision-making at NASA to make sure our culture is going the right direction.”
Ross: Mid-market SaaS will be worthless in five years due to AI
“I think it's a barbell thing. Like, the large AI companies are gonna eat the top end of value, and everyone in the middle is gonna just commoditize, or people who aren't even in the software business. Like, in the next two or three years, this isn't true, righ…”
Pentagon pays Google 47 cents annually for Gemini deployment
“They were the first of the big frontier AI companies to say, we want to work at Department of Defense. They were easy to work with on the contract. We're paying 47 cents For the whole year for all of this. So they're like taking, taking a loss to make sure tha…”
Liemandt: Paying students directly is the most effective educational incentive
“Yeah. No, paying the kids is by far the most effective way to do it. And you can get, you know, big effect size on, on doing this. It really works.”
Liemandt: Alpha students learn twice as much in just two hours
“In our model, right, we have built a learning engine that teaches kids 10 times faster. And so how that reacts or how you see it in our school is our kids come in, our students come in two hours a day. They're at an AI tutor. It's not Teacher in front of the c…”
Liemandt: Alpha School Ranks in Top 1% Nationally Across All Classes
“And so our academic performance, we're the best performing academic school in the country. We're, you know, all our classes now are, you know, are top one percent.”
Carvalho: Brazilian Supreme Court forced critical journalists into US exile
“We have a number of journalists living in America right now that were critical of the government. And had to leave the country because the whole idea of combating fake news, for example, got into a, you know, if Biden was bad about trying to go into Twitter an…”
Stitt says 99% of people in Tulsa encampments chose to leave
“99% of the people, they just leave because this is a lifestyle and they haven't hit rock bottom yet. And they're literally just getting on the train tracks and walking on to the next community.”
Lonsdale claims Biden's HUD forced facilities to allow drug use
“For a while, HUD, the national government was actually coming in under the Biden administration, and it was forcing people to allow people to use drugs in their treatment areas”
Zachary Levi: Famous Hollywood Figures Secretly Supported Trump but Feared Career Fallout
“I know a lot of people, like you were mentioning, there's people that, you know, people I know, very famous people in Hollywood that are intelligent enough to recognize that that's the way they needed to vote, but they also were like, oh, but I don't know what…”
Levi: AI will automate the new jobs created to replace displaced workers
“So when people make the argument, well, Yes. It will replace these jobs, but it will create more jobs. I go, yeah, except that it can do those new jobs as well.”
Schmitt: FBI knew Hunter Biden laptop was real in November 2019
“The FBI authenticated and knew the laptop for Hunter Biden with all the crazy stuff in it could have, by the way, implicated Joe Biden in some bad stuff. They knew it was real in 2019, in November of 2019. The FBI starts having monthly, then weekly meetings wi…”
Schmitt: Biden administration censorship efforts began on day three
“We discover in the discovery that the censorship operation began on day three of their administration. They started taking down RFK Jr. They started taking down Tucker Carlson. A lot of these people who had opinions they didn't like were being shadow banned or…”