The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 389 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Calacanis: Nvidia will decline or severely downgrade investment in OpenAI
“I think NVIDIA is not going to take their option to invest in open AI, or they're going to really downgrade at 70, 80%, and they're going to allocate it to other players.”
Goldstein: Supreme Court conservative majority will likely vote 5-4 to overturn Roe
“Till June of this year, where they will likely win five to four.”
Sacks predicts Washington regulatory push will eventually ban open-source AI
“In terms of the red capture agenda that you're seeing in Washington, I think where it's all leading to is an effort to ban open source models or open weight models.”
Emil Michael: Anthropic will be excluded from Pentagon AI contracts under current posture
“And Throbic's not going to be one of them if they continue sort of with their sort of posture.”
Calacanis predicts US youth unemployment will reach 14% due to AI
“Nine percent in January, now 10 and a half percent. I think this chart's going right up to 14%, just my prediction, and I think it's because of AI.”
Summers: Overwhelming majority of tariff costs will be passed to consumers
“Increases in tariffs of this magnitude, the overwhelming part of them will be passed on to consumers.”
Chamath predicts a trillion-dollar drawdown for Magnificent Seven stocks in 2025
“I don't know what the percentage drawdown from here will be, but I think when we look back, the absolute dollar drawdown of the mag seven will be in the trillions of dollars.”
Friedberg: Trump effectively secured the 2024 election after the assassination attempt
“I think the first thing I thought after I saw the video and saw that he was okay and that his ear was bleeding was that's it. It's over. Trump's won.”
Sacks: Kamala Harris is the only candidate option if Biden exits
“We are gonna get President Kamala Harris. She's the only alternative.”
Calacanis predicts Joe Biden will exit the presidential race within 30 days
“I just, I'm telling you right now, he is not going to be in this race in the next 30 days.”
Calacanis guarantees Democrats will replace Biden on 2024 presidential ticket
“I guarantee you hot swap is coming. I predicted the Trump TV flip, and I predict it now.”
Democrats will replace Joe Biden as nominee within 60 days
“I believe that's what's going to happen in the next 30 to 60 days, so I'm predicting.”
Sacks: DNC lawyers will fight to keep RFK Jr. off swing state ballots
“I think what you're gonna see is that lawyers from the DNC and the Biden campaign are gonna fight tooth and nail to keep this ticket off the ballot, at least in the major contested states, like the five or six states. Where the presidency will be decided in 20…”
Sacks predicts US strikes in Yemen will trigger war with Iran
“So I don't think this is going to have any impact other than to escalate the conflict in the Middle East and put us on a path to war with Iran, which is really where the neocons want to take us. You've heard, obviously, the warmongers like Lindsey Graham are c…”
Sacks: US airstrikes won't deter Houthis, will trigger direct US retaliation
“I mean, the Houthis have been at war on and off With the Saudis for a decade, and the Saudis been backed by Western weapons, and we have not been able to defeat the Houthis. So this missile strike last night is not gonna deter them. It's not gonna stop them. T…”
Chamath: Bitcoin ETFs are days away and Bitcoin will reach mainstream adoption in 2024
“We are probably days away from a series of ETFs being approved And so this is the moment for Bitcoin to use that old term, cross the chasm, and really see mainstream adoption, where our parents and our grandparents understand what it is, can buy it, and then d…”
Chamath: Trump will easily win the 2024 Republican nomination
“I think he is going to run away with the Republican nomination, and barring some catastrophic meltdown, has a better chance to get into the White House than before this Colorado case.”
Tucker Carlson predicts Joe Biden will not be the 2024 Democratic nominee
“I don't think Biden can be the nominee. His only point was to You know, stop Bernie Sanders, basically, and he's outlifted his usefulness, so I think he'll be, I'm pretty sure he'll be replaced”
Sacks predicts Trump will waltz into the White House in 2024
“By the way, I mean, at this rate, the way things are going in this country right now, both economically and internationally, he's gonna waltz into the White House. He's gonna spend all of his time in the next year in, in the courthouses battling all of these l…”
Sacks: Prosecutions will send Donald Trump to prison or the White House
“They're either gonna send Donald Trump to the big house or to the White House.”
Sacks: Trump will win election subversion case if it reaches Supreme Court
“I think if he has to take the Supreme Court, he's going to win it because it's just a novel legal theory.”
Chamath Palihapitiya predicts Chinese stimulus will prevent a US hard landing
“And the reason there's not going to be a hard landing is you just saw China today basically say we're going to start to rip in trillions of dollars. They're going to stimulate the economy. You can't have a hard landing when China's printing trillions of dollar…”
Sacks: Fed inaction over weekend could spark regional bank runs
“Unless the Fed steps in here over the weekend, we're going to see potentially a run on the regional banking system, a Cascade like we saw in 2008.”
Calacanis predicts generative AI will enable founders to build MVPs without developers
“These two things are gonna come together where you're gonna be able to build your MVP for your startup by typing in text and then publish it. You're not gonna need a developer for your startup.”
Sacks predicts Supreme Court will strike down university affirmative action policies
“I think the majority will rule to strike down these policies That really discriminate against Asian Americans, and I think they're the last group in America where it seems to be okay to discriminate against, and I think the Supreme Court is gonna find that unc…”
Chamath: Regulators will investigate top VCs over unregulated token sales
“So if the SEC is really, and the DOJ is really going to take this FTT token issue seriously, and what happened to FTX? They're going to start to look at a bunch of other tokens and token sales, and you're going to end up looking at some very well-known venture…”
Sacks: California fast-food wage bill will accelerate automation and cut jobs
“These big chain restaurants are gonna rely even more heavily on automation now, and they're gonna basically employ less of this labor where the price has been artificially raised for that subsector of the economy from 15 to 22 dollars for reasons that no one c…”
Sacks: Biden's student debt relief will be struck down by Supreme Court
“I expect this to be challenged and taken to the Supreme Court. And I think there's a very good chance that it'll end up like Biden's other executive orders that were ruled unconstitutional.”
Rabois: A flipped Congress will subpoena Twitter over foreign government influence
“But the government, if the U.S. Congress is turned over, there's gonna be a lot of subpoenas flying over to Twitter, because there are absolutely foreign governments influencing some of those decisions at Twitter.”
Sacks: Disney CEO Bob Chapek won't survive the year
“I think Bob What's his name? Bob Chapek. I don't think he's going to survive the year after what just happened at Disney, and it's because he gave in to the employees, took sides against the, you know, governor in Florida and the legislature, and they just rip…”
Palihapitiya: Trump will likely be allowed back on Twitter after three years
“I think all roads will probably lead to a conclusion that after three years, it's probably okay to let this guy back and be able to tweet.”
Calacanis predicts SF District Attorney Chesa Boudin will be recalled
“Chesa Boudin and all of these Whack jobs are all going to get voted out and recalled.”
Calacanis predicts Joe Biden's presidency will be 'one and done'
“I think that this presidency is one and done obviously to everybody.”
Sacks predicts the Supreme Court will invalidate Texas' SB8 abortion law
“And I think regardless of what you think about abortion, this law will eventually be invalidated by the Supreme Court or a lower court on that ground that they're allowing people to sue without standing.”
Friedberg: Delta variant will not crush US hospital system or cause massive fatalities
“There are enough people, people vaccinated in the United States at this point that this Delta variant is not going to crush our hospital system. It's not going to cause massive amount of fatalities, which is the reason we went into lockdowns in the first place…”
Sacks: UC system will never bring back SAT or ACT requirements
“And the University of California system has now abandoned the SAT and ACT. So they temporarily got rid of those requirements during the pandemic, but now they've used it as an excuse. They've never wasted a crisis. And now they say they're not bringing back th…”
Chamath: SDNY, state, and federal prosecutors will aggressively pursue Trump
“Even if we don't find a way to basically put Trump in jail for this, I can 100% guarantee you, I will bet a million bucks That now the Southern District of New York gloves off. Every single state that can go after this guy, gloves off. And to the extent that J…”
Calacanis: Nikola stock will go to zero
“I predict it will be worth 60 cents. I kid you not, this company will go to zero, is my prediction.”
Sacks: TikTok paying Oracle political protection money; deal will fail
“It's bite dance paying political protection money to Larry Ellison to be their bodyguard in this political process. But, and I, but that's why I don't think it's going to fly.”
Dreyfus: Standard electrification will trigger US power shortfalls without AI
“Now, if we simply just want to achieve our objectives to re-industrialize, re-shore, electrify, when I say electrify, that just means replacing your old gas boilers in these buildings with heat pumps, which every commercial building is doing. It means, you kno…”
Arora: Vulnerability-finding AI will be public within three months
“I think we're three months away, if not already there, from this being available in the wild.”
Laffont: SpaceX will go public in the next few weeks
“That doesn't include three companies that we know will be coming public pretty shortly, SpaceX obviously in the next few weeks, and we know Anthropic just today, the headlines hit that they've submitted confidentially for their S-one.”
Friedberg: Google will replicate Anthropic Cowork within 90 days
“I will also say that it's only going to take 90 days for Google to flip on a virtual version of co-work.”
Calacanis: Combined SpaceX and xAI will IPO this year
“Now those two become part of SpaceX and they're going to IPO this year, potentially the biggest IPO in history in terms of money raised and market cap.”
Armstrong: AI agents will use stablecoins and crypto wallets for payments
“AI agents, I think, are gonna use stablecoins and wallet, crypto wallets.”
Nadella: Open-source AI models will reach frontier-class capabilities
“They're definitely going to be frontier models that are closed source. You know, they're going to be open source models that are going to be frontier class.”
Sacks: 2026 will see a major IPO boom creating trillions in market cap
“I think 2026 is going to be a big year for IPOs. I'm not going to say which ones. I think there's going to be a bunch of them, a bunch of successful ones, and I think we could see trillions of dollars of new market cap created of public companies.”