The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 18 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Bessent predicts US will collect at least $300B in tariff revenue over 12 months
“Minimum on a forward 12 month basis, we're going to take in at least three hundred billion dollars in tariff income.”
Bessent aims to reduce U.S. deficit-to-GDP ratio to 3% by 2028
“And I've said that I would, by the time President Trump leaves office, that we would like to have something with a three in front of it, which will stabilize the deficit to GDP, which is an important number, and enable us to start paying down debt.”
Bessent: Removing SLR constraint might lower T-bill yields 30-70 bps
“So I actually think there's a chance that if we take, it's called the supplementary leverage ratio. If we take that away, it's, it becomes a binding constraint on banks. We might actually pull treasury bill yields down by 30 to 70 basis points.”
Bessent: Government services will not be cut by DOGE efficiency efforts
“Everyone's hearing cuts, and they think their government services are going to get cut. Super important. They're not.”
Bessent forecasts $200B to $300B U.S. fiscal contraction for the calendar year
“I forecast that we will have approximately a 200 to three hundred billion fiscal contraction for the calendar year, which is between .71% of GDP.”
Bessent projects U.S. deficit-to-GDP ratio will drop to mid-5% range
“We're gonna end the year with a nominal growth close to six percent. So we will be bringing down the Deficit to GDP. I believe it peaked 6.8% for the calendar year, previous year, and we're going to be in the mid fives”
Bessent predicts U.S. tariff revenue will fall as domestic manufacturing reshores
“So what should happen is over time, tariff income will come down and U.S. Tax receipts will come up, whether it's from factory jobs or more manufacturing, And through higher payroll taxes.”
Bessent predicts declining rental prices will continue to drop
“We are now seeing rents are down about five percent. I think that trend will continue.”
Bessent: GENIUS legislation could drive trillions in U.S. T-bill demand
“We expect that the Chinese will slowly divest, but the, with the passage of the genius legislation last week, I think that we could see several trillion dollars of demand for T-bills, because the way the legislation works, it, it's under 90 days.”
Scott Bessent foresees global economic reordering within next few years
“I could see in the next few years that we are going to have to have some kind of a grand global economic reordering. There's something on the equivalent of a new Bretton Woods, or if you want to go back, like a treat, something back to the steel agreements or …”
Trump administration aims to lower federal deficit to historical average by 2028
“We're going to set a goal by twenty-twenty-eight. We want to get back to the long-term average. We're going to deflate it slowly.”
Bessent: Displaced federal workers will be absorbed by the private sector
“Folks who lost their government jobs will be picked up by the private sector.”
Bessent: Failing to pass budget causes largest tax hike in US history
“Everybody recognizes that if we don't get this done, it's going to be the biggest, it's pass fail. It's the biggest tax hike in history.”
Bessent predicts U.S. households will receive $1,000 to $2,000 Q1 tax refunds
“And I can see that we're going to have a gigantic refund year in the first quarter because no one chains their working Americans did not change their withholding. So I think households could see depending on the number of workers, 1002 thousand dollar refunds,…”
Bessent: AI boom highly likely to spur non-inflationary economic growth
“With AI that we can go back to the paradigm When I was younger, in the nineties, Alan Greenspan was able to run the economy very hot in the nineties, and because, you know, it was the IT boom, and we had this very powerful non-inflationary growth, and I think …”
Bessent: Tariffs and tax incentives could spark U.S. construction boom
“I think we could have this massive construction boom And then the factories get populated, and part of President Trump's one big beautiful bill, the most powerful part of that is the hundred percent immediate expensing of equipment, and we also did it for fact…”