why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Disclosure
Ryan Cohen: Committing $500M of personal capital to eBay transaction
“I'm putting five hundred million of my own money into this transaction.”
Insight
Cohen: Supplier gifts signal overpaying, while supplier anger signals optimal pricing
“If our suppliers are sending us gifts in the mail, that's a really bad sign. It means we're overpaying. If our suppliers are telling us they never want to speak to us again, it means we're getting the right price.”
What-if
Ryan Cohen: eBay could have been Amazon
“EBay could have been Amazon.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Cohen: $2B in costs can be immediately cut from eBay
“Number one is on immediately improving earnings through cutting costs. And Pulling two billion dollars of costs out of the business and on the operating base of, you know, close to five and a half billion of expenses and 2.4 billion spent on sales and marketin…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Cohen: In-game digital item market could exceed eBay physical market
“But if you look at in-game digital items, there's no marketplace that is providing liquidity for them. And so I would use eBay to provide liquidity for in-game digital items. And I believe that addressable market is significantly larger than could be much larg…”
Assertion Contradicted
Cohen: eBay CEO golden parachute is over $100M
“It's over a hundred million bucks.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
GameStop originally invited Ryan Cohen to board to fend off activist
“Well, when it came to GameStop, originally it was a passive investment and I owned under five percent and the CEO actually reached out to me because they were fighting an activist and they wanted me to join the board.”
Disclosure
Cohen: Applying Chewy's playbook to GameStop was a 'really stupid' mistake
“I went in and I had this bias from Chewy, which is basically like everything that I learned at Chewy, I was going to apply to GameStop. And it took me about, I don't know, maybe Just over a year to realize that was really, really stupid.”
Disclosure
GameStop pays cash on the spot for graded PSA 8+ cards
“You can bring in a, Graded PSA card eight and above, and we will give you cash on the spot. We buy back the card, and then we either sell it in the store, or we bring it back to our warehouses, and we sell it online.”
What-if
Ryan Cohen: Chewy could have been profitable sooner with less marketing spend
“It could have been a five hundred million dollar business. It could have been a hundred million dollar business. It could have been profitable if we would have spent a lot less money on marketing, but life is too short to do it small.”
Assertion Supported
Cohen: eBay active users have dropped by 30 million since COVID
“I mean, if you just look at how they've done in the past since COVID, Every important metric is down. GMV is down. Active users is down by thirty million.”
Assertion Supported
Ryan Cohen: Chewy reached billions in revenue with negative working capital
“And we had negative working capital, and so it was a business that was able to get billions of dollars in revenue and not consume a lot of capital.”
Disclosure
Ryan Cohen details investment criteria for out-of-favor companies
“I looked for established businesses that have a strong historical track record of making money and typically are out of favor when it comes to passive or activist kind of investments. And so that's been my general framework.”
Disclosure
Cohen: Original GameStop thesis relied on upcoming console cycle
“The original thesis was that there's an upcoming console cycle and that they're probably going to survive until the upcoming console cycle and the new PlayStation and Microsoft Xbox comes out.”