The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Nate Silver: Immigrant and entrepreneurial groups are shifting away from Democrats
“You have seen shifts in those groups and the most entrepreneurial groups away from Democrats.”
Silver: Base case for 2022 midterms is Republican majorities in Congress
“Midterm elections are more predictable Than presidential elections. And the base case is that you wind up with Republican majorities of some magnitude.”
Nate Silver: Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to 38%
“Donald Trump in our approval ratings now is down to. 38%.”
Nate Silver: Socialism is significantly more popular among younger Democrats
“I think people who are a little bit older don't realize that like the socialism brand Is much more popular among younger Democrats.”
Nate Silver: 80% of voters agreed Joe Biden was too old
“Saying, Biden is obviously too old, Democrats, you're gonna lose unless you replace him. Like, that, even though it's a stance that, like, literally 80% of voters agreed with, will make you, like, seem like a heretic on Twitter.”
Silver: Liberals criticized FiveThirtyEight for being too bullish on Trump in 2016
“Before the election, we got a lot of criticism from like liberals for being too bullish on Trump. The market price was about 15%.”
Nate Silver: Recounts almost never overturn vote margins above 0.05%
“Almost never have you had a margin larger than oh point oh five percent or so overturned.”
Nate Silver: Gavin Newsom's Democratic primary polling fell from 25% to 15%
“Newsom has fallen in Democratic primary polls from around 25% to 15%. He's fallen on polling market from like 33% to 22% or something.”
Silver: The average VC investment makes money, unlike average poker hands
“The average investment makes money. It may not make a above market return, but it'll make money, which is not true for the average Poker hand that you play.”
Nate Silver: Only about 10% of poker players profit long term
“In poker where only 10% of players probably make money in the long run, you have to be very, very detail oriented.”
Silver: FiveThirtyEight was bullish on Joe Biden in 2020 primary
“If you get kind of, like, the twenty-twenty primary, like, we were very bullish on Joe Biden when people weren't and thought he was gonna lose, and so you don't get, like, a lot of credit, and you do face, like, a lot of downside for being actually wrong or pe…”
Nate Silver: Half of US student loan debt is from graduate school
“Half of student loan debt is people going to graduate school”